Trade rumor: Buehrle

[Brock Beauchamp]

"Decent chance he implodes spectacularly"?  I know he's not young, but this seems pretty hyperbolic for perhaps the most consistent and durable pitcher of the last 15 years coming off a season of basically posting his career average numbers.

Every pitcher has an increasing chance of imploding spectacularly each year they age into their 30s.

 

Bronson Arroyo was a 200 IP workhorse until he wasn't in his age 37 season. Guys get old and the more you cling to career averages for guys sailing past age 35, the more you're playing with fire.

 

With all of that said, I'm not against an acquisition of Buerhle under the right circumstances but I wouldn't put too much stock in those career averages at this point.

[nicksaviking]

 

Remember, we had the WORST starting staff in the league by ERA and IP in 2014 -- the idea that there somehow isn't room for one more pitcher, with an above average track record, on a one-year commitment is crazy talk.

 

 

 

Remember we had the WORST starting staff in the league by strikeouts too. 

[jay]

Were we committed to the rebuild last winter, when we signed Nolasco and Pelfrey and still offered deals to Garza and Santana?

 

I don't think the circumstances have changed all that much since then.  We're still trying to get this staff (and this club) back to respectability, and given where we are coming from, I think it is going to take a mix of prospects and veterans to do that in any kind of timely fashion.

 

I completely agree there's room to add a starter on this roster.  I'd heavily question that a 35 year old with one year remaining at $19M is the best way to do that.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Guys get old and the more you cling to career averages for guys sailing past age 35, the more you're playing with fire.

 

With all of that said, I'm not against an acquisition of Buerhle under the right circumstances but I wouldn't put too much stock in those career averages at this point.

 

Who's clinging to career averages?  Buehrle's worst career season by ERA+ (95) and/or IP (201) would be helpful to the 2015 Twins.  Heck, he could undershoot both of those by 10% and still turn in a Gibson 2014 season.

[KGB]

This.  We were 6th in runs scored and had solid infield defense.  We don't have to be rebuilding anymore - we just need to add a pitcher in the 1-3 slot and an outfielder who can catch the ball and provide adequate offense.

 

.

 

We lost 92 games and had the 4th oldest pitching staff in the AL.  I hope the rebuilding isn't done.  At the major league level, we have not really began to rebuild the staff.  Time to try Meyers and May and get younger not older.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Who's clinging to career averages?  Buehrle's worst career season by ERA+ (95) and/or IP (201) would be helpful to the 2015 Twins.  Heck, he could undershoot both of those by 10% and still turn in a Gibson 2014 season.

You're still using past results. It's likely that Buerhle will be better than the junk the Twins rolled out in 2014... but there's also a pretty good chance he posts a 90 IP, 85 ERA+ season because he's old. That's my point. Buerhle is a risk and a diminishing return at this point. Yes, it's possible he maintains his career numbers for one or two more years... It's also entirely possible that he incinerates on the mound.

 

Again, I'm not against pursuing Mark if he can be had for a B or lower prospect but I won't use his past performance to justify that belief because past performance of a 36 year old pitcher is a surefire way to pull the trigger a really, really bad trade.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I completely agree there's room to add a starter on this roster.  I'd heavily question that a 35 year old with one year remaining at $19M is the best way to do that.

Did I say it was the best way?

 

Hey, if the Twins want to sign a more expensive free agent this winter, or they're really confident they can sign and turn around Masterson or Morrow or whomever, or they can magically steal a younger better starter for marginal cost in trade, I say go for it and forget about Buehrle.

 

A Buehrle acquisition might be the most realistic option of that bunch, though (although I still doubt whether the Jays would part with him so cheaply).

 

Also, the one-year part of the Buehrle commitment is a plus in my mind, not a minus.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Also, the one-year part of the Buehrle commitment is a plus in my mind, not a minus.

Absolutely. Without a single year left on his deal, I wouldn't even consider acquiring him.

[Linus]

We lost 92 games and had the 4th oldest pitching staff in the AL.  I hope the rebuilding isn't done.  At the major league level, we have not really began to rebuild the staff.  Time to try Meyers and May and get younger not older.

We just need to get better in the starting rotation and the winning can start next year.  At this point, I don't care about age, I just care about ability.  We've got other starters coming up to take the place of the older guys.  We don't have to wait any longer if we add some pitching; we will be waiting longer if we count on Meyer and May both making it and nobody else getting hurt.

[tobi0040]

 

Remember we had the WORST starting staff in the league by strikeouts too. 

 

 

I don't follow this logic at all.

 

First, the next starter we add has nothing to do with the other four guys. We could sign Nolan Ryan in his prime and it will not help Kyle Gibson strike out more batters.

 

Second, Mark has never struck anyone out, yet still have a 3.81 career ERA with unbelievable durability and consistency.

 

Third, this logic would cause us to go out and sign a guy like Chris Capuano over Mark B. Mark is a better pitcher and that is what this team needs.

[laloesch]

This I agree with, the only way a Buehrle trade makes sense for the Twins is if at the same time they can unload Nolasco. That or if the Twins can find a match with another team for a somewhat underperforming starter with past success like Nolasco. One way or another it would be nice for the Twins to be rid of Nolasco, he just doesn't fit here. Nolasco and the Twins are not a good fit.

 

Exactly.  I'd trade one year of Buehrle at 19 million, plus a mid level prospect in order to unload Nolasco.  In fact I'd do that deal any day of the week and twice on Sunday.   It's not so much the money savings or the acquisition of Buehrle but the fact that it will free up a slot in the rotation by 2016 which will be occupied by Berrios in 2 years. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

You're still using past results. It's likely that Buerhle will be better than the junk the Twins rolled out in 2014... but there's also a pretty good chance he posts a 90 IP, 85 ERA+ season because he's old. That's my point. Buerhle is a risk and a diminishing return at this point. Yes, it's possible he maintains his career numbers for one or two more years... It's also entirely possible that he incinerates on the mound.

 

Again, I'm not against pursuing Mark if he can be had for a B or lower prospect but I won't use his past performance to justify that belief because past performance of a 36 year old pitcher is a surefire way to pull the trigger a really, really bad trade.

You think I am arguing against aging curves, or risk of collapse increasing with age?  I am not, and I hope I haven't given that impression at all.

 

If you're on board for Buehrle for a B prospect, we're fully in agreement.  I certainly don't guarantee or even expect that he will repeat his career numbers or his 2014 performance, but I certainly think that given the evidence we have for him, and the current state of our staff, taking a chance on him for 2015 is easily worth a B prospect and 1 year at $19 million.

[Mike Sixel]

Pretty big risk Nolasco is what we saw last year, Meyer is not up fast, May is really a RP... .an injury happens, etc. Bringing in a SP would seem to be a good idea

[Otto von Ballpark]

Absolutely. Without a single year left on his deal, I wouldn't even consider acquiring him.

And not only does it minimize the risk in 2015, if he likes it here and our record improves, I think it gives us the inside track to possibly retain him year-to-year going forward as his health/performance and our needs dictate (like Pettitte or Wakefield, or Pavano and Thome in recent Twins history -- all of those guys contributed in their later careers, and none of them were millstones, at least not for very long or at any great cost).

[tobi0040]

 

Exactly.  I'd trade one year of Buehrle at 19 million, plus a mid level prospect in order to unload Nolasco.  In fact I'd do that deal any day of the week and twice on Sunday.   It's not so much the money savings or the acquisition of Buehrle but the fact that it will free up a slot in the rotation by 2016 which will be occupied by Berrios in 2 years. 

 

 

The Nolasco talk could seize any moment. No way they are unloading salary and taking back 3 years of salary of a guy nowhere near as good.

[Guest]

Energy, budget and trading chips all need to go to getting players for the future.  Instead of getting the age 36 year of a player's career, the Twins should be trying to maximize their possible players for 2016 and beyond.  Best case scenario for Buehrle is that he improves the 2015 Twins by 3 wins.  That means they'll be more competitive for third place in the AL Central.  Not such a big wow.  It's like being the 2008 Seattle Mariners and trading for Erik Bedard, while giving up Adam Jones, Chris Tillman and others.  

 

Instead of trying to get a veteran player for one year, the Twins should be trying to find the Joneses, Tillmans and similar players (other recent low cost, i.e., cost way less than Pelfrey or Correia, pick-ups through trade or otherwise, off the top of my head: Meyer, Syndegard, Wheeler, Vogelsong, Quintana, Lewis, Alvarez, Liriano, Worley, Volquez, Kazmir, Richard, Pineda) for future years.  Further, anyone that would be traded for Buehrle would not be available to trade for players with a possible future.

 

By the way, can we put to bed the idea that you need to get veterans for "locker room leadership?"  That's management's job.  Sure, it's important to have someone fun to play with, like Kirby Puckett or Hunter Pence, but time and again the Twins have proven the mistake of considering a veteran to be more valuable than his on-field contribution by asserting he would provide "locker room leadership."

[Otto von Ballpark]

Instead of trying to get a veteran player for one year, the Twins should be trying to find the Joneses, Tillmans and similar players (other recent low cost, i.e., cost way less than Pelfrey or Correia, pick-ups through trade or otherwise,

They can't do both things?

 

I think the assumption of this thread has been that any trade chips that would net you Buehrle would matter very little in any potential blockbuster.   (Think if the Mets had dealt Kevin Mulvey before we finalized the Johan deal with them -- I think they still would have gotten something done )

 

Adding 3 wins from 1 roster spot would be quite outstanding for the 2015 Twins, and worth the gamble of cash and a marginal prospect.  Reminds me of the less-famous move by the Royals before the 2013 season: dealing a marginal minor leaguer for Ervin Santana and his $13 mil salary.  He contributed 3 WAR as the Royals jumped from 74 pythag wins to 86 real wins (and relevance) in one winter.  (Not saying the Twins would do the same, obviously, but a Buehrle pickup would help toward that goal.)

[Willihammer]

The Twins get Buehrle and if he doesn't implode in 2015 they will double down until he does. See Pavano.

 

I'd love to see the Twins target a guy with a chance to turn into the next Cliff Lee or Max Scherzer. Maybe one of the Padres pitchers. Not a 1 year rental of Mark f-ing Buehrle.

[Brandon]

There are numerous pitchers available for trade this offseason.  Beurhle is a good option.  He can pitch 190-220 innings in a season and keep the team in games.  Nolasco should rebound as there wont be as much pressure on him next year.  This would give the Twins 4 starters who can or should be able to pitch 180 to 210 innings next year. (Hughes, Nolasco, Beurhle, and Gibson)  Now if we go out and get a different starting pitcher option too that's fine.  I think for us to get Beurhle one of 2 things need to occur 1.  Toronto needs to pick up some salary or 2 we get him for virtually nothing.  We actually have some valuable pieces available to trade.  we have a SS Escobar, C-1B-DH Pinto and bullpen help Deunsing Swarzak maybe Fien and others and prospects. 

 

Pinto, Deunsing, and a prospect like the 2B we drafted in 1rst round in 2010. for Beurhle and 3,000,000.  The Jays are rumored to be shopping Lind so Pinto can be a possible replacement along with Smoak.  Deunsing to be used as a mid reliever and a 3 million in savings for us and they also get a prospect.   That to me works as the Jays save over 10,000,000 and maybe more when they trade Lind.  We could also include Millone in the trade instead of a prospect or Deunsing if that helps the Jays out too. 

 

What do you think is a fair trade for Beurhle?

[Otto von Ballpark]

The Twins get Buehrle and if he doesn't implode in 2015 they will double down until he does. See Pavano.

Pavano took a one-year, $7 mil deal to stay after we traded for him.  Then, after the second-best season of his career and a Twins division title, 2 years, $16 mil.  (I could do without the 2 years, but those are pretty low-risk, reasonable costs and terms if the guy is performing and you still have a need for him.)

[Otto von Ballpark]

Pinto, Deunsing, and a prospect like the 2B we drafted in 1rst round in 2010. for Beurhle and 3,000,000.

Pinto would be a high cost, I would not do that.

 

I was thinking more along the lines of Gilmartin/Adam type pieces or minor league bullpen arms (i.e. if we're not sold on either Achter or Tonkin).  I guess Levi Michael might be a roughly equivalent position player.

[nicksaviking]

   

 

I don't follow this logic at all.

 

First, the next starter we add has nothing to do with the other four guys. We could sign Nolan Ryan in his prime and it will not help Kyle Gibson strike out more batters.

 

Second, Mark has never struck anyone out, yet still have a 3.81 career ERA with unbelievable durability and consistency.

 

Third, this logic would cause us to go out and sign a guy like Chris Capuano over Mark B. Mark is a better pitcher and that is what this team needs.

 

No, this team needs pitchers who will not continue to stress the already overmatched defenders.  Neither Capuano or Buehrle are fits for this club, but the team should not be looking to add more pitchers who will demand that the defense get him 86% of his outs.

[Willihammer]

Pavano took a one-year, $7 mil deal to stay after we traded for him.  Then, after the second-best season of his career and a Twins division title, 2 years, $16 mil.  (I could do without the 2 years, but those are pretty low-risk, reasonable costs and terms if the guy is performing and you still have a need for him.)

I understand there's little risk financially but there is risk in wins and losses, which I'm much more concerned about as a fan, when the Twins pencil a mid to late 30s guy into their rotation. Pavano only cost 8.5 mil in 2012 and was in the final year of his contract but his disintegration was a significant component of the Twins turning in another 90 loss season and having the worst starting staff in the league that year

[nicksaviking]

The Twins get Buehrle and if he doesn't implode in 2015 they will double down until he does. See Pavano.

 

I'd love to see the Twins target a guy with a chance to turn into the next Cliff Lee or Max Scherzer. Maybe one of the Padres pitchers. Not a 1 year rental of Mark f-ing Buehrle.

 

I'd like the idea of Buehrle a lot more if we viewed him as a mid-season trade chip, but the Twins have not seemed inclined to eat a contract for better prospects and I'm not inclined to offer the Blue Jays better prospects so that they would do it.

 

He could be the Cy Young front runner come July, but if he's still got $9 million left on his contract, no team is going to give up much of anything for a soft tosser like Buehrle.

[TheLeviathan]

And not only does it minimize the risk in 2015, if he likes it here and our record improves, I think it gives us the inside track to possibly retain him year-to-year going forward as his health/performance and our needs dictate (like Pettitte or Wakefield, or Pavano and Thome in recent Twins history -- all of those guys contributed in their later careers, and none of them were millstones, at least not for very long or at any great cost).

 

Or, possibly, offer him fallback after this year.

[Mike Sixel]

I want another pitcher. If they'll spend the big bucks for a young, elite (likely elite) guy, great. If not, this guy works for me. Number 6 in runs scored, lastish in SP runs allowed. I don't see any way Meyer is here in the beginning of the year, go get some pitching.

[tobi0040]

No, this team needs pitchers who will not continue to stress the already overmatched defenders.  Neither Capuano or Buehrle are fits for this club, but the team should not be looking to add more pitchers who will demand that the defense get him 86% of his outs.

 

I don't get this logic either.  He has not been a good pitcher since 2000 with remarkable consistency year in and year out by way of a great defense.  Maybe, just mabye the balls hit off of him are weak pop ups and grounders because he is keeping hitters off balance?  A career BABIP of .292 and HR rate of .99 is not a fluke over 3,000 innings.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I understand there's little risk financially but there is risk in wins and losses, which I'm much more concerned about as a fan, when the Twins pencil a mid to late 30s guy into their rotation. Pavano only cost 8.5 mil in 2012 and was in the final year of his contract but his disintegration was a significant component of the Twins turning in another 90 loss season and having the worst starting staff in the league that year

Pavano only made 11 starts in 2012.  His performance (or lack thereof) wasn't the problem -- the problem was the degree to which we relied on him.

 

And actually, if we stand pat with our current starting staff, I worry that we might be relying a little too much on certain players/prospects in 2015.  Buehrle would actually help mitigate that.

[tobi0040]

The Twins get Buehrle and if he doesn't implode in 2015 they will double down until he does. See Pavano.

 

Career Numbers.

 

Pavano  4.39 ERA

Mark B.  3.81 ERA

[Willihammer]

Pavano only made 11 starts in 2012.  His performance (or lack thereof) wasn't the problem -- the problem was the degree to which we relied on him.

 

And actually, if we stand pat with our current starting staff, I worry that we might be relying a little too much on certain players/prospects in 2015.  Buehrle would actually help mitigate that.

That's why TR got Milone. Here's the thing with playing time and the Twins, as anyone who followed this franchise knows. Any player they've invested any chunkable amount of money in will get a bunch of PT regardless of results. Any player drafted highly who cracks the MLB club will get PT regardless of results. Any player acquired by giving up cost controlled players will get PT regardless of results. Not only that, but the Twins will try to bring that player back for more! (regardless of results)