2015 Starting Rotation: Opening Day

[Paul Pleiss]

The Twins pitching staff has not been good this season. That being said, we've seen a marked improvement from where the starting staff was last year. What do we have to look forward to for a starting 5 next season when the Twins leave Ft Myers for the tail end of the Minnesota winter?

 

Phil Hughes

Ricky Nolasco

Kyle Gibson

2 of Pelfrey/May/Milone/Darnell/Meyer

 

I'd put my money on Big Mike Pelfrey (because he's like a cuddly sasquatch) and Trevor May, at least to start 2015. I don't know how long the Twins can keep Meyer out of the Twins rotation if he's healthy next season, but I don't know how they kept him down in Rochester so long this year either.

 

Do guys like Gilmartin, Hamburger, Johnson, Pino, Vasquez or Alex Wimmers even have a shot at cracking the opening day 25-man roster?

[071063]

I agree of your first three starters.  They are a given unless injury issues arise.  For the last two (2), I think it is going to be May and Milone with Pelfrey operating out of the pen.  I think Darnell and Meyer will start in Rochester.

[diehardtwinsfan]

The first 3 are givens. The only thing stopping them is an injury, so Hughes, Gibson, and Nolasco. If Nolasco can rebound, that makes for a quasi-decent front 3, especially if Gibson continues to progress as he has this year. On the flip side, Hughes cannot regress. As for the other two, I think it's two of May, Milone, and Pelfrey to start the year with Meyer supplanting one of them near July. I woudln't be surprised if Ryan tried to shop Milone or Pelfrey this offseason, but I doubt either would get much.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

I feel at this moment that Pelfrey will be the #5 Starter next season for the first month or so, assuming he's medically cleared to play.

 

The Twins should be shopping him aggressively early on. It's one thing to have Correia in the rotation to keep the Logan Darnells of the world from getting major league starts - it's another for Pelfrey to be taking starts that could instead go to Alex Meyer.

 

I think the biggest deciding factor for the 2015 rotation will be health. Pelfrey will likely be retained by the Twins as long as he's healthy and as long as there are questions about the depth of the rotation.

 

Milone in 2015 pretty much equals Pino this year, and I'm ok with that.

 

My guess for what we'll see for most of 2015:

Hughes

Gibson

Nolasco

May

Pelfrey/Milone/Meyer

 

 

What I'd like to see (but won't happen):

James Shields or Ervin Santana

Hughes

Gibson

May

Nolasco

            Meyer/Pelfrey/Milone/Justin Masterson for depth.

[gunnarthor]

I think it'll be Hughes, Gibson, May, Milone and Meyer.  I think Ryan somehow trades Nolasco in the offseason, despite his crappy season.  Maybe I'm just wishing it.

[bird]

The first 3 are givens. The only thing stopping them is an injury, so Hughes, Gibson, and Nolasco. If Nolasco can rebound, that makes for a quasi-decent front 3, especially if Gibson continues to progress as he has this year. On the flip side, Hughes cannot regress. As for the other two, I think it's two of May, Milone, and Pelfrey to start the year with Meyer supplanting one of them near July. I woudln't be surprised if Ryan tried to shop Milone or Pelfrey this offseason, but I doubt either would get much.

I'm really hoping that Ryan disagrees with you that Nolasco, Hughes, and Gibson comprise a quasi-decent front of the rotation. I hope he thinks of Hughes as a passable #2/3, Gibson as a passable #3/4, and Nolasco as a passable #4/5. I'd like to avoid putting salt in the wound of not having an ace by simply suggesting that our biggest need, going into 2015, is a proven starter that meets or exceeds the Hughes Standard, i.e. another passable #2/3 starter or better. That way, we can sit back and enjoy whatever journey Meyer and May are going to take us on, hoping that, maybe by 2016, at least one of them slots in as a front of the rotation guy. All the other guys- Johnson, Milone, Pelfrey, Darnell, Gilmartin, are part of a commodity that can be easily found in the marketplace for the price of, say, a 4th outfielder. I'm afraid this extends to AA prospects like Rogers, with the one important exception of Berrios.

[Linus]

I am in agreement that the first 3 are givens.  My dream is that they go out and get another quality starter that is equal or better than Hughes.  Unless most here, I think there is a pretty good chance that Meyer is with the team right out of spring training, assuming he performs well.  We all said there was no way they would break camp with Gibson this year but that is what they did - I can see something similar happening next spring. 

 

Darnell, Gilmartin, et al will be great depth to have at Rochester.  My guess is that Pino is a DFA.  I am also not worried about Pelfrey.  His contract is small enough that if he isn't pitching well enough to have a meaningful role, they will waive him.

[iTwins]

How I think the Twins will approach the rotation:

 

Phil Hughes

Ricky Nolasco

Kyle Gibson

Trevor May

Mike Pelfrey

 

Logan Darnell (Long relief)

Kris Johnson / Sean Gilmartin / Tommy Milone (AAA)

 

How I'd LIKE the Twins to approach the rotation:

 

Lester

Hughes

Nolasco

Gibson

May

 

Pelfrey (Long relief)

 

I'm hoping the team realizes that the core they have is a solid middle group. They have a #2 (Hughes) a #3 (Gibson) and a #4 (Nolasco). May has the potential to be a #3 to #4 guy, but right now is likely a #5 guy. The team NEEDS an ace, and they shouldn't bank on Alex Meyer being the ace. Hopefully Meyer develops into a strong #2 or even an Ace - but until that becomes a certainty - the Twins should act like they don't have a true #1 starter. Enter Lester. Yes, it will cost a LOT of money to get him...but the move needs to be made.

[beckmt]

I think it will be Hughes, Gibson, Nolasco, May, Milone to start with Pelfrey in the bullpen.  I hope we see Meyer early in the year, but not counting on it.  Expect we will see both Meyer and Berrios later in 2015,  TR needs to move a starter to create the room for the pitchers coming up.  Rest of the candidates are filler you can find anywhere for very little. 

[tobi0040]

Warning to Moderators.

 

If Mike Pelfrey is on scholarship next year and receives the same token 10 starts he has over the last two years,  I will be grouchy and receive warnings in the April to June 2015 timeframe. I can't help it, it is a problem.  I am over Mike Pelfrey.

 

Sorry in advance.

[tobi0040]

I'm really hoping that Ryan disagrees with you that Nolasco, Hughes, and Gibson comprise a quasi-decent front of the rotation. I hope he thinks of Hughes as a passable #2/3, Gibson as a passable #3/4, and Nolasco as a passable #4/5. I'd like to avoid putting salt in the wound of not having an ace by simply suggesting that our biggest need, going into 2015, is a proven starter that meets or exceeds the Hughes Standard, i.e. another passable #2/3 starter or better. That way, we can sit back and enjoy whatever journey Meyer and May are going to take us on, hoping that, maybe by 2016, at least one of them slots in as a front of the rotation guy. All the other guys- Johnson, Milone, Pelfrey, Darnell, Gilmartin, are part of a commodity that can be easily found in the marketplace for the price of, say, a 4th outfielder. I'm afraid this extends to AA prospects like Rogers, with the one important exception of Berrios.

 

I agree.  As easy as it is to sit here and list five guys and say we are good, we are 28th in the league in starter ERA. That has been the biggest issue over the last 3 years so fixing it would be a good thing.  Signing a guy that is better than everyone else you have and forcing a competition and the weakest among them to AAA is never a bad thing.

[Brandon]

They'll go with the 3

Hughes

Nolasco

Gibson

 

then go with this choice if healthy Pelfry

 

The last spot will go to who wins the battle in spring training between May and Millone with Meyer given an outside chance then Pino is the emergency plan/6th starter long reliever IMO he is the new Deduno bouncing between the rotation and relieving as a 6th starter. (see the battle with Diamond, Worely, Deduno and Gibson for the 5th spot this year re-enacted with new cast  Pelfry = Diamond the top choice going in, May and Meyer = Gibson the rookie with upside and Millone = Worely had past success but not the most talented and again Pino is Deduno who gets relegate to long relief at the beginning of spring training if Swarzak is let go this offseason.) only this next competition can play out a little differently with different results.

[tobi0040]

They'll go with the 3

Hughes

Nolasco

Gibson

 

then go with this choice if healthy Pelfry

 

The last spot will go to who wins the battle in spring training between May and Millone with Meyer given an outside chance then Pino is the emergency plan/6th starter long reliever IMO he is the new Deduno bouncing between the rotation and relieving as a 6th starter. (see the battle with Diamond, Worely, Deduno and Gibson for the 5th spot this year re-enacted with new cast  Pelfry = Diamond the top choice going in, May and Meyer = Gibson the rookie with upside and Millone = Worely had past success but not the most talented and again Pino is Deduno who gets relegate to long relief at the beginning of spring training if Swarzak is let go this offseason.) only this next competition can play out a little differently with different results.

 

The sad part is we know Pelfrey will be terrible.  Yet we all know he will get 10 starts of 6.00 ERA + .  I hope we have a new manager next year that will take the best five guys. He won't be one of them.  This team is not going to be good enough to go 2-8 in those 10 games.

[Badsmerf]

Warning to Moderators.

 

If Mike Pelfrey is on scholarship next year and receives the same token 10 starts he has over the last two years,  I will be grouchy and receive warnings in the April to June 2015 timeframe. I can't help it, it is a problem.  I am over Mike Pelfrey.

 

Sorry in advance.

If that happens I might be kicked off the forum until further competency is achieved by the organization.

[tobi0040]

If that happens I might be kicked off the forum until further competency is achieved by the organization.

 

Yeah.  I see a lot of thread hijacking and personal attacks to whomever defends Pelfrey in the rotation.

[Boom Boom]

Sorry to be a buzzkill, but I've watched the Twins for a long time, and my spidey-senses tell me the rotation will be:

 

Hughes

Nolasco

Gibson

Pelfrey

Milone

[jharaldson]

As easy as it is to sit here and list five guys and say we are good, we are 28th in the league in starter ERA.

 

I have some bad news, the last few days the Twins have performed poorly enough and the Rockies and Rangers just good enough that the Twins have slipped into their comfortable last place in starter ERA.  

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2014&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=15,d

 

But we should be optimistic and assume all the guys that sucked this year (Nolasco, May, Milone, Pelfrey) will just get better.  

[Craig Arko]

Yeah.  I see a lot of thread hijacking and personal attacks to whomever defends Pelfrey in the rotation.

I'll volunteer. I know how to use an ignore list with the best of them.

[DocBauer]

Just think for a moment how nice the options for next season sound compared to the past few years?

 

Hughes (still young), Gibson (younger and former top prospect developing nicely), Nolasco (forget this year, healthy he's experienced and solid)

 

Instead of Blackburn, Slowey, Walters, Diamond and others; we have Pelfrey (okokok), Milone (an actual viable ML LH with a positive record), and two top prospects in May and Meyer. Not to mention Berrios possibly ready by the end of 2015.

 

My best guesses? May is part of the rotation. I think at least 1 of the 2 kids is there. It could by Meyer easily, but I'm picking May for now because, well, he's ahead of Meyer right now. He's getting experience similar to what Gibson got last year. And I like Milone better than Pelfrey. He's younger, LH, and won't be "rehab" mode.

 

My gut tells me Pelfrey is in the pen, on the DL, or possibly in EST to begin. And remember, this is to start the year, not what it might by June or July 1st.

[DocBauer]

Something to further consider when discussing next season's rotation options. It's very easy to simply state the Twins should sign so and so as a front line starter. Assuming there are viable options available, there are various factors to be weighed.

 

I don't have payroll numbers handy at this time, but believe reports had the Twins around 84M this season. I think educated speculation, and even comments made by the Twins themselves, would suggest a 100m payroll wouldn't be out of line. Especially if it got the turnstiles spinning again. With Willingham, KC and Burton gone next season, that's another 16M approximately cut from the payroll. With no other major roster losses, and allowing for a probably 3-5M team wide addition to payroll in raises, you have a net 11M in savings, for a team payroll of approximately 73M.

 

Do the Twins have to spend millions of dollars next off season to improve, (whether it be to 100M or not)? Of course the answer is no. Development of May and Meyer, further development of Gibson and a return to health and normalcy for Nolasco changes the SP situation a great deal, along with further development of the young position players on roster, possibly a smart addition or two, also, possibly, one additional solid veteran to deepen the pen. But does spending some fairly serious money improve the team perhaps quicker? I think that possibility exists strongly, though there is no guarantee.

 

Even after signing Nolasco and Hughes last season, the Twins made a concerted effort to add Garza. Indicating a real desire to spend necessary money to make a move and improve the team. (The Morales signing during the season further exemplifies this) But would they make such a move again this off season? Was the attempted Garza signing due to questions about organization SP depth at the top, most notably May and Meyer? And now that May and Meyer have had the seasons in AAA that they have, does that change the Twins thinking?

 

Should they make the big move, tie up the money needed in years, possibly create a log jam situation, even though it may show overall improvement, perhaps significantly?

 

Or are they better making a few smart moves, nurturing May and Meyer throughout the season, possibly Berrios at some point, and continue building via the youth movement, and maintaining a lower payroll and greater financial flexibility for the future?

[Rosterman]

Pelfrey could open on the dl. May should take Swarzak's place. Gilmartin should join the 40-man. Johnson might remain on the 40-man and could be considered a Duensing replacement at best. Meyer and Darnell will start at AAA. I want the Twins to try real hard and see if lester will pitch for a rebuilding team in 2015, or another frontline starter. e

[Badsmerf]

KC has shown this season that elite pitching can get you to the postseason. If the twins think they are good enough with the rotation and count on their guys having a better year they are kidding themselves. They need an elite guy like Lester to actually compete, and they don't have one close. Say what you want about Meyer and berrios, but they most likely won't ever be a front line starter, and certainly not in the next few years. Spending big this off-season on Lester makes a lot of sense. I hope it is considered.

[tobi0040]

 

 

But we should be optimistic and assume all the guys that sucked this year (Nolasco, May, Milone, Pelfrey) will just get better.  

 

That is one of the three pieces to the hope strategy:

 

1 - Everyone that was bad will now be good.  

 

2 - Guys that were good won't regress (Hughes and Gibson)

 

3 - Young guys that come up will be lights out from their first MLB start (Meyer, etc.)

[Craig Arko]

I'm thinking Scherzer may be a more likely candidate than Lester. But number 1 starter is certainly the place to spend.

[drjim]

Sorry to be a buzzkill, but I've watched the Twins for a long time, and my spidey-senses tell me the rotation will be:

 

Hughes

Nolasco

Gibson

Pelfrey

Milone

 

Out of curiosity, what was your prediction for the rotation a year ago to start this season?

 

I go FA, Hughes, Gibson, Nolasco, Meyer.

 

I thought there would be no way Meyer starts in the rotation, but the lack of other options might change that. Pelfrey will be the long man out of camp.

[tobi0040]

I'm thinking Scherzer may be a more likely candidate than Lester. But number 1 starter is certainly the place to spend.

 

Max is 30 years old, a Boras clients, and he just turned down 6/144.  I just don't see the Twins going 7-8 years and $24-26M a year.

 

I see a bidding war between the Tigers and Yankees.  New Yorks rotation needs someone new.

[old nurse]

KC has shown this season that elite pitching can get you to the postseason. If the twins think they are good enough with the rotation and count on their guys having a better year they are kidding themselves. They need an elite guy like Lester to actually compete, and they don't have one close. Say what you want about Meyer and berrios, but they most likely won't ever be a front line starter, and certainly not in the next few years. Spending big this off-season on Lester makes a lot of sense. I hope it is considered.

Elite defense makes very good pitching better in the case of KC.

[Mike Sixel]

Super depressing thread .... worst starter ERA in the league, and most believe it will be the same guys. Mauer is not getting younger.

[Thegrin]

This September will tell us a lot about next year's starting rotation. 

Nothing that Nolasco does for the rest of 2014 makes any difference. Even If Nolasco has no good starts, he will probably be in the rotation anyway, because of the contract.

If Milone has no good starts, he will probably still get a chance to be in the rotation with a good spring training. If Milone has a few good starts in September he is a lock to be in the rotation next year because he is a lefthander. 

If May has no good starts, he'll probably start in AAA, even if he has a good Spring Training.  If May has a few good starts, he may still end up in AAA or the Twins bullpen if another candidate has a better Spring Training.  

However, I would not be surprised if the Twins trade for a pitcher from one of the teams with a homer friendly ballpark such as Cincinnati's Mike Leake.

[James Richter]

1. Hughes (3.18 xFIP)

2. Gibson (4.01)

3. Nolasco (4.15)

4. Milone (4.24 career xFIP)

5. Pelfrey (4.55 career xFIP)

 

That's not awesome, but it shouldn't be crappy, either. Short leash for everybody because the AAA depth should be good. Ideally, trade Pelfrey early in the season to let in May/Meyer.

 

Also, watch for high-upside opportunities on the FA market. Guys like Justin Masterson, Brett Anderson & Brandon Morrow might be available on 1-year, value-rebuilding deals.