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The worst trade in Twins history!

Devlin Clark

Entry posted by Devlin Clark in Worst trade ·

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If you're like me, you find yourself scrolling baseball reference pages or Wikipedia to see what former Twins players are up to, post playing career. Maybe you're not like me, maybe you actually have a life. Well, I don't, but I do enjoy doing Wikipedia and bREF rabbit holes. Recently, I was talking with a friend on Twitter and he asked me what I thought the worst trade in Twins history was, the ones that came to mind immediately were more recent: Sam Dyson, Mitch Garver, Taylor Rogers, etc. But I decided to stick with the trades made since 2000. The reason for that is that is when the Twins really became relevant again, when we knew that contraction wasn't going to be moving our team. With that said, I scoured long and hard looking at almost every trade we've made since 2000 and although the Jamie Garcia trade is up there, I still think the trade I'm going to outline below is worse and I'll list my criteria. 

As always, please let me know what you think, follow me on Twitter @Devlin_clark84 and without any further wait, let's get to it:

Before I tell you what the trade is, I want to lay out the parameters of how I came about this. First of all, ALL stats shown below are courtesy of baseball reference. I wanted to also show the production over a 5 year period as I felt that this gives us a great sample size and can exclude fluke or lucky seasons, one offs, etc. So here is the breakdown:

I will say that some of the post trade stats are incomplete and you'll see why as we progress.

The trade happened on November 6, 2009. We will be looking at the 2008,09 seasons for each player, the 2010 season, as well as the 2011,12 seasons to see a wide scope of production and to try and fairly explain why this is the worst trade in Twins history. 

The Twins trade 24 year old Centerfielder Carlos Gomez to Milwaukee for SS JJ Hardy. 

Let's look at the 2008,09 seasons for both players so we can get a scope of who and why the trade was made.

(Stats shown below are for both seasons combined)

Gomez (age 22 and 23 seasons): 290 games, .248 AVG, 10HRs,87RBIs, 73 OPS+, 2.6 WAR. 

Hardy(age 25 and 26 seasons): 261 Games, .260 AVG, 35HRs, 121RBIs, 98 OPS+, 5.3 WAR

Coming into the trade, based on nearly 300 games the last two seasons, the Twins were going to be the clear beneficiaries of the trade. Hardy not only had better numbers, but also played a premium up the middle position. The Twins were poised to win the trade. Let's look at how the 2010 season played out for both guys (avert your eyes, Twins fans):

Gomez(age 24 season in 2010): 97 Games, .247 AVG, 5 HRS, 24RBIs, 18SBs, slashed .298/.357/.655 which produced a WAR of 0.6. 

Surely, Hardy would have a better season with the Twins than Gomez had with the Brewers? Well...

Hardy (age 27 season in 2010): 101 Games, .268 AVG, 6HRs 38RBIs, slashed .320/.394/.714 which produced a WAR of 1.3

Not as bad as Gomez, but still not great. Despite this, after the 2010 season, the Twins still looked like the obvious winners on this trade, it's when you look at not just the next two seasons, but what happened next that show this to be the worst trade in Twins history.

On December 9th, 2010 the Twins and Orioles pulled off a trade. The Twins sent SS JJ Hardy and UTIL Brendan Harris to the Orioles. We got $500,000 in return and two minor leaguers, Brett Jacobson and Jim Hoey.

It's what happened next that show my point:

Gomez (2011-12 season with Milwaukee, ages 25,26 seasons): 231 Games, .248AVG, 27HRs, 75RBIs, 53SBs, 94 OPS+ which is a 4.5 WAR combined. 

Hardy(2011-12 in his age 28,29 seasons):

287 Games, .252 AVG, 52 HRs, 148 RBIs, 96 OPS+, good for 7.5 WAR. 

Hardy in the 3 seasons following the trade(2011,12 and 13) hit 30,22 and 25 HRs respectively. 

Gomez became a first time all star in 2013 and again in 2014. He finished ninth in MVP voting in 2013 and sixteenth in 2014. He also won a Gold Glove in 2013. 

Hardy won a Gold Glove in his second season in Baltimore in 2012 (also in '13), as well as the Silver Slugger and became an All Star in 2013. 

So why is this the worst trade ever for the Twins? Let's examine what they got from a numbers standpoint:

Brett Jacobsen never made the majors. So since I am using MLB stats, he's a non factor in this trade. Jim Hoey in 2011 for the Twins:

26 Games, 5.47 ERA, 75 ERA+, 5.58 FIP, good for a whopping -0.6 WAR. 

To summarize what the Twins gave up, received and then how the players did after the trade: 

From the trade in 2010 to the end of the 2012 season the Twins got a WAR of 0.7 (1.3 from the Hardy 2010 year, and a -0.6 from Hoey in 2011.) Hoey never played again after 2011 in the majors. 

The Brewers thrived and got 5.1 WAR between 2010-12 with Gomez and those weren't even his best years. (In 2013 he had a massive 7.6 WAR season and in 2014 had a 4.7 WAR season, all told, the five years after the trade through the end of 2014, Gomez produced a total of 17.4 WAR.)

The Orioles also won the trade with Hardy, getting a 7.4 WAR player the next two seasons, who played a premium position, was an All Star, Silver Slugger and GG winner. From 2010-14, Hardy was worth a massive 15.4 WAR(1.3 of those was 2010 with MIN)

So the Twins ended up getting $500,000, a player who never made the majors, and a pitcher who produced a -0.6 WAR, and gave up a SS who produced 14.1WAR the next four seasons and a CF who produced a 14.8 WAR and finished top-20 MVP twice. 

When you factor everything in, the fact the Twins were going to be the winners based on the two previous years of Hardy and Gomez' careers, the fact that Hardy produced a higher WAR then Gomez in the first full season of the trade, and then the ineptitude of the Twins to give him up and get absolutely nothing back (literally a Negative war player) makes this, for me, the worst trade in Twins history. 

As always, leave a comment below and let me know what your thoughts are! Can you think of a recent trade where we got less back and other players produced more in the last twenty three years?https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hardyjj01.shtml

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gomezca01.shtml

47 Comments

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ashbury

ashbury 60,678

Posted

The worst trade in Twins history!™ is whatever trade our idiot FO made most recently.  Ask just about anyone here. You're welcome.

You picked a good one, though.  I mean, a worthy one.  A series of trades anyway.

Devlin Clark

Devlin Clark 86

Posted

4 hours ago, Squirrel said:

If I recall ... didn't Gardy want Hardy gone for some reason? Still a horrible trade and one I wouldn't have made ... 

I read moreso that it was to free up the position for Nishioka. Which is brutal if true. 

ashbury

ashbury 60,678

Posted

11 minutes ago, Devlin Clark said:

I read moreso that it was to free up the position for Nishioka. Which is brutal if true. 

My recollection is that the reason was, um, a little more down to earth and non-baseball related than that. :)

Devlin Clark

Devlin Clark 86

Posted

3 hours ago, ashbury said:

My recollection is that the reason was, um, a little more down to earth and non-baseball related than that. :)

You're probably right. I don't know the reason we traded him. 

annismark

annismark 66

Posted

So you're saying the Twins traded away a future all-star for a future all-star, but traded that future all-star for less than nothing..  Yep thats a bad trade. 

In 2013, the following ex-Twins were all-stars: David Ortiz, JJ Hardy, Torii Hunter, Joe Nathan, Grant Balfour, Carlos Gomez, Jesse Crain, and Michael Cuddyer.  Yikes.

jimmyc

jimmyc 72

Posted

So individually, the trade of Hardy to Baltimore for nothing was the worst trade.  Or be complete and bring it back a step and include the Johan trade which is what brought in Carlos Gomez in the first place.

SwainZag

SwainZag 7,018

Posted

I always thought that Gomez was in the big leagues too soon.  Yes, he had the speed and the defense but his bat was far from developed.  He never hit for power until 2013 season, which was 4 years after he was traded.  Trading him away when they did always surprised me as well.

ziggy

ziggy 1,847

Posted

Quote

If I recall ... didn't Gardy want Hardy gone for some reason?

Gardy also wanted Gomez gone despite being great in centerfield because he refused quit swinging for the fences and play small ball.  Perhaps why the Twins brass lets Buxton keep swinging and flailing away.

dxpavelka

dxpavelka 2,924

Posted

On 7/18/2023 at 7:07 PM, annismark said:

So you're saying the Twins traded away a future all-star for a future all-star, but traded that future all-star for less than nothing..  Yep thats a bad trade. 

In 2013, the following ex-Twins were all-stars: David Ortiz, JJ Hardy, Torii Hunter, Joe Nathan, Grant Balfour, Carlos Gomez, Jesse Crain, and Michael Cuddyer.  Yikes.

If memory serves me right, and, no, I haven't done the requisite research:  Most of those guys left as free agents and we got nothing for them.

 

Trov

Trov 4,776

Posted

Really it is the Hardy to Baltimore that was the worst trade, not the Hardy for Gomez. You group 2 trades in as the worst trade, but if you look at the trade of Gomez and Hardy it was not a bad trade.  The follow of up sending Hardy away because Twins thought they had a SS coming from Japan was the terrible trade.  If we kept Hardy and he produced what he did with Baltimore with Twins we would not say it was a bad trade.  

Road trip

Road trip 1,562

Posted

The Carew trade was bad, but the Twins were somewhat stuck.  Carew wanted out, as Griffith was dismantling the team and refused to pay anyone in the early free agency era (see Hisle, Bostock, etc).  Of course, under these circumstances the Twins were going to be terrible anyway.  Had they not traded him Carew would almost certainly have left as a free agent.  It hurt emotionally to lose Carew, but the late Griffith/Met Stadium era was going to be hopeless regardless simply due to the owner's refusal to recognize the reality of rising player salaries in the new free agent era.

Now, Tom Brunansky for Tommy Herr... oof, it still hurts decades later.  That trade was totally unnecessary and self-inflicted.  The Twins were coming off of their 1987 title, and *thought* that Tommy Herr would thrive on the MetroDome's turf.  They made the trade in late April, and it disrupted team chemistry very badly.  Turned out that Tommy Herr HATED leaving St Louis (where he was a fan favorite) to play in Minnesota, and his performance reflected that.  Bruno had also been a fan favorite at Minnesota, and his leadership, bat, and glove was sorely missed.  The Twins sort of seemed to be in a collective funk all year, in part because Herr was brought in to replace the popular (but offensively subpar) Steve Lombardozzi.  They finished a very distant 2nd place.

Herr was essentially done as a productive player (note: don't trade a 27 year old outfielder entering his prime for a 33 year old middle infielder).  The Twins flipped Herr the next spring for an even more past-his-prime Shane Rawley and went into full tailspin mode in '89.  Rawley went 5-12 with an awful ERA and retired following the season.  

I'm sure from a perspective of lost WAR there were worse trades, but the '88 Twins were potentially primed for another playoff run.  This trade derailed them.

Otaknam

Otaknam 1,243

Posted

9 hours ago, MABB1959 said:

The worst for me was Berrios trade, second Arraez, 3rd was Hicks.

Hicks was a bad trade for sure. The Arraez trade is too early to judge, though they could sure use his on base approach right now. However Pablo Lopez has an upside and I think will win a lot of games. The Berrios trade isn’t just about who they got, it  is also about the salary. Do you want to pay him almost $19 million for seven years to win 13 or 14 games? He is clearly at best a number 3 starter.  Or should the Twins use that money for upcoming contract for Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober. And Berrios wanted to be a free agent anyway. 

dxpavelka

dxpavelka 2,924

Posted

21 hours ago, MABB1959 said:

The worst for me was Berrios trade, second Arraez, 3rd was Hicks.

Still suffering the after effects of Berrios trade.

 

dxpavelka

dxpavelka 2,924

Posted

11 hours ago, Otaknam said:

Hicks was a bad trade for sure. The Arraez trade is too early to judge, though they could sure use his on base approach right now. However Pablo Lopez has an upside and I think will win a lot of games. The Berrios trade isn’t just about who they got, it  is also about the salary. Do you want to pay him almost $19 million for seven years to win 13 or 14 games? He is clearly at best a number 3 starter.  Or should the Twins use that money for upcoming contract for Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober. And Berrios wanted to be a free agent anyway. 

Berrios so much wanted to be a free agent that he re-signed with the team he was playing for.  $19 million for seven years for the best home grown pitcher you have developed in a generation is actually quite reasonable.

dxpavelka

dxpavelka 2,924

Posted

17 hours ago, Otaknam said:

Hicks was a bad trade for sure. The Arraez trade is too early to judge, though they could sure use his on base approach right now. However Pablo Lopez has an upside and I think will win a lot of games. The Berrios trade isn’t just about who they got, it  is also about the salary. Do you want to pay him almost $19 million for seven years to win 13 or 14 games? He is clearly at best a number 3 starter.  Or should the Twins use that money for upcoming contract for Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober. And Berrios wanted to be a free agent anyway. 

Actually Berrios made $15 Million last year.  28th highest for a starting pitcher.  He won 12 games.  26th most for a starter.  In retrospect, solid deal.  He's making $15 Million this year as well.  33rd for a starting pitcher.  He's on pace to win 13 this year.  Which would put him 23rd.  23rd production for 33rd pay is what I like to call value.  I'd take it.  AND, had we not made that trade we might not have put ourselves in position to need to make the Mahle trade.  Possibly not even the Arraez trade.  Just sayin

 

Seth Stohs

Seth Stohs 27,868

Posted

On 7/16/2023 at 12:49 PM, Squirrel said:

If I recall ... didn't Gardy want Hardy gone for some reason? Still a horrible trade and one I wouldn't have made ... 

Hardy was just hurt most of the season. 

Shaitan

Shaitan 2,816

Posted

This was absolutely a terrible trade. But Gomez has nothing to do with it. He was already gone.

mikelink45

mikelink45 17,618

Posted

 Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand, and left-handed pitcher Steve Hajjar for Mahle - that is a bad trade.  I agree with all the other ideas too.  A lot to choose from.  I also agree with Arraez for Lopez looking bad right now, but wait and see (even though I expect things won't change a lot). 

MABB1959

MABB1959 1,010

Posted

On 7/21/2023 at 6:35 PM, Otaknam said:

Hicks was a bad trade for sure. The Arraez trade is too early to judge, though they could sure use his on base approach right now. However Pablo Lopez has an upside and I think will win a lot of games. The Berrios trade isn’t just about who they got, it  is also about the salary. Do you want to pay him almost $19 million for seven years to win 13 or 14 games? He is clearly at best a number 3 starter.  Or should the Twins use that money for upcoming contract for Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober. And Berrios wanted to be a free agent anyway. 

Pablo is similar to Arraez, was it worth it for 13-14 games. Also not quite sure yet if he is that good or at least not as good as Arraez would have been for this team.  No doubt Berrios wanted out. If I were a good player I wouldn’t want to spend the prime of my career here. What makes it bad are the players we got back.  Doesn’t instill much confidence in the FO’s ability to spot talent.  I think they rushed it a bit!

LewFordLives

LewFordLives 2,563

Posted

The Santana trade has to be up there. At the end of the day, what did they get.... NOTHING (see article above).

I hated the trade at time and it didn't age well. There was no reason to make the trade. He was under contract through 2008. If they couldn't reach agreement on a contract they could have made him play it out and then let him walk after 2008 and take the compensation picks. Instead they traded him for a collection of projects from the Mets and missed winning the division by one game.

I don't like it when people say you gotta get something for a pending free agent. Is there no value in watching a generational talent like Johan for one more season and making the playoffs?  That one just really stings.

jkcarew

jkcarew 8,257

Posted

Gotta think bigger picture…

Rick Dempsey for Danny Walton.

Graig Nettles (and Dean Chance…who only had one good year left, plus two others), for one year of Luis Tiant, and Stan Williams.

And they outright released Jim Kaat and effectively released Luis Tiant. So, they essentially traded them for nothing at a point when they had a collective nearly 250 major-league wins left in them.

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