The worst trade in Twins history!
Twins Video
If you're like me, you find yourself scrolling baseball reference pages or Wikipedia to see what former Twins players are up to, post playing career. Maybe you're not like me, maybe you actually have a life. Well, I don't, but I do enjoy doing Wikipedia and bREF rabbit holes. Recently, I was talking with a friend on Twitter and he asked me what I thought the worst trade in Twins history was, the ones that came to mind immediately were more recent: Sam Dyson, Mitch Garver, Taylor Rogers, etc. But I decided to stick with the trades made since 2000. The reason for that is that is when the Twins really became relevant again, when we knew that contraction wasn't going to be moving our team. With that said, I scoured long and hard looking at almost every trade we've made since 2000 and although the Jamie Garcia trade is up there, I still think the trade I'm going to outline below is worse and I'll list my criteria.
As always, please let me know what you think, follow me on Twitter @Devlin_clark84 and without any further wait, let's get to it:
Before I tell you what the trade is, I want to lay out the parameters of how I came about this. First of all, ALL stats shown below are courtesy of baseball reference. I wanted to also show the production over a 5 year period as I felt that this gives us a great sample size and can exclude fluke or lucky seasons, one offs, etc. So here is the breakdown:
I will say that some of the post trade stats are incomplete and you'll see why as we progress.
The trade happened on November 6, 2009. We will be looking at the 2008,09 seasons for each player, the 2010 season, as well as the 2011,12 seasons to see a wide scope of production and to try and fairly explain why this is the worst trade in Twins history.
The Twins trade 24 year old Centerfielder Carlos Gomez to Milwaukee for SS JJ Hardy.
Let's look at the 2008,09 seasons for both players so we can get a scope of who and why the trade was made.
(Stats shown below are for both seasons combined)
Gomez (age 22 and 23 seasons): 290 games, .248 AVG, 10HRs,87RBIs, 73 OPS+, 2.6 WAR.
Hardy(age 25 and 26 seasons): 261 Games, .260 AVG, 35HRs, 121RBIs, 98 OPS+, 5.3 WAR
Coming into the trade, based on nearly 300 games the last two seasons, the Twins were going to be the clear beneficiaries of the trade. Hardy not only had better numbers, but also played a premium up the middle position. The Twins were poised to win the trade. Let's look at how the 2010 season played out for both guys (avert your eyes, Twins fans):
Gomez(age 24 season in 2010): 97 Games, .247 AVG, 5 HRS, 24RBIs, 18SBs, slashed .298/.357/.655 which produced a WAR of 0.6.
Surely, Hardy would have a better season with the Twins than Gomez had with the Brewers? Well...
Hardy (age 27 season in 2010): 101 Games, .268 AVG, 6HRs 38RBIs, slashed .320/.394/.714 which produced a WAR of 1.3
Not as bad as Gomez, but still not great. Despite this, after the 2010 season, the Twins still looked like the obvious winners on this trade, it's when you look at not just the next two seasons, but what happened next that show this to be the worst trade in Twins history.
On December 9th, 2010 the Twins and Orioles pulled off a trade. The Twins sent SS JJ Hardy and UTIL Brendan Harris to the Orioles. We got $500,000 in return and two minor leaguers, Brett Jacobson and Jim Hoey.
It's what happened next that show my point:
Gomez (2011-12 season with Milwaukee, ages 25,26 seasons): 231 Games, .248AVG, 27HRs, 75RBIs, 53SBs, 94 OPS+ which is a 4.5 WAR combined.
Hardy(2011-12 in his age 28,29 seasons):
287 Games, .252 AVG, 52 HRs, 148 RBIs, 96 OPS+, good for 7.5 WAR.
Hardy in the 3 seasons following the trade(2011,12 and 13) hit 30,22 and 25 HRs respectively.
Gomez became a first time all star in 2013 and again in 2014. He finished ninth in MVP voting in 2013 and sixteenth in 2014. He also won a Gold Glove in 2013.
Hardy won a Gold Glove in his second season in Baltimore in 2012 (also in '13), as well as the Silver Slugger and became an All Star in 2013.
So why is this the worst trade ever for the Twins? Let's examine what they got from a numbers standpoint:
Brett Jacobsen never made the majors. So since I am using MLB stats, he's a non factor in this trade. Jim Hoey in 2011 for the Twins:
26 Games, 5.47 ERA, 75 ERA+, 5.58 FIP, good for a whopping -0.6 WAR.
To summarize what the Twins gave up, received and then how the players did after the trade:
From the trade in 2010 to the end of the 2012 season the Twins got a WAR of 0.7 (1.3 from the Hardy 2010 year, and a -0.6 from Hoey in 2011.) Hoey never played again after 2011 in the majors.
The Brewers thrived and got 5.1 WAR between 2010-12 with Gomez and those weren't even his best years. (In 2013 he had a massive 7.6 WAR season and in 2014 had a 4.7 WAR season, all told, the five years after the trade through the end of 2014, Gomez produced a total of 17.4 WAR.)
The Orioles also won the trade with Hardy, getting a 7.4 WAR player the next two seasons, who played a premium position, was an All Star, Silver Slugger and GG winner. From 2010-14, Hardy was worth a massive 15.4 WAR(1.3 of those was 2010 with MIN)
So the Twins ended up getting $500,000, a player who never made the majors, and a pitcher who produced a -0.6 WAR, and gave up a SS who produced 14.1WAR the next four seasons and a CF who produced a 14.8 WAR and finished top-20 MVP twice.
When you factor everything in, the fact the Twins were going to be the winners based on the two previous years of Hardy and Gomez' careers, the fact that Hardy produced a higher WAR then Gomez in the first full season of the trade, and then the ineptitude of the Twins to give him up and get absolutely nothing back (literally a Negative war player) makes this, for me, the worst trade in Twins history.
As always, leave a comment below and let me know what your thoughts are! Can you think of a recent trade where we got less back and other players produced more in the last twenty three years?https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hardyjj01.shtml
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gomezca01.shtml
- nclahammer, mikelink45 and Karbo
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