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The worst trade in Twins history!


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If you're like me, you find yourself scrolling baseball reference pages or Wikipedia to see what former Twins players are up to, post playing career. Maybe you're not like me, maybe you actually have a life. Well, I don't, but I do enjoy doing Wikipedia and bREF rabbit holes. Recently, I was talking with a friend on Twitter and he asked me what I thought the worst trade in Twins history was, the ones that came to mind immediately were more recent: Sam Dyson, Mitch Garver, Taylor Rogers, etc. But I decided to stick with the trades made since 2000. The reason for that is that is when the Twins really became relevant again, when we knew that contraction wasn't going to be moving our team. With that said, I scoured long and hard looking at almost every trade we've made since 2000 and although the Jamie Garcia trade is up there, I still think the trade I'm going to outline below is worse and I'll list my criteria. 

As always, please let me know what you think, follow me on Twitter @Devlin_clark84 and without any further wait, let's get to it:

Before I tell you what the trade is, I want to lay out the parameters of how I came about this. First of all, ALL stats shown below are courtesy of baseball reference. I wanted to also show the production over a 5 year period as I felt that this gives us a great sample size and can exclude fluke or lucky seasons, one offs, etc. So here is the breakdown:

I will say that some of the post trade stats are incomplete and you'll see why as we progress.

The trade happened on November 6, 2009. We will be looking at the 2008,09 seasons for each player, the 2010 season, as well as the 2011,12 seasons to see a wide scope of production and to try and fairly explain why this is the worst trade in Twins history. 

The Twins trade 24 year old Centerfielder Carlos Gomez to Milwaukee for SS JJ Hardy. 

Let's look at the 2008,09 seasons for both players so we can get a scope of who and why the trade was made.

(Stats shown below are for both seasons combined)

Gomez (age 22 and 23 seasons): 290 games, .248 AVG, 10HRs,87RBIs, 73 OPS+, 2.6 WAR. 

Hardy(age 25 and 26 seasons): 261 Games, .260 AVG, 35HRs, 121RBIs, 98 OPS+, 5.3 WAR

Coming into the trade, based on nearly 300 games the last two seasons, the Twins were going to be the clear beneficiaries of the trade. Hardy not only had better numbers, but also played a premium up the middle position. The Twins were poised to win the trade. Let's look at how the 2010 season played out for both guys (avert your eyes, Twins fans):

Gomez(age 24 season in 2010): 97 Games, .247 AVG, 5 HRS, 24RBIs, 18SBs, slashed .298/.357/.655 which produced a WAR of 0.6. 

Surely, Hardy would have a better season with the Twins than Gomez had with the Brewers? Well...

Hardy (age 27 season in 2010): 101 Games, .268 AVG, 6HRs 38RBIs, slashed .320/.394/.714 which produced a WAR of 1.3

Not as bad as Gomez, but still not great. Despite this, after the 2010 season, the Twins still looked like the obvious winners on this trade, it's when you look at not just the next two seasons, but what happened next that show this to be the worst trade in Twins history.

On December 9th, 2010 the Twins and Orioles pulled off a trade. The Twins sent SS JJ Hardy and UTIL Brendan Harris to the Orioles. We got $500,000 in return and two minor leaguers, Brett Jacobson and Jim Hoey.

It's what happened next that show my point:

Gomez (2011-12 season with Milwaukee, ages 25,26 seasons): 231 Games, .248AVG, 27HRs, 75RBIs, 53SBs, 94 OPS+ which is a 4.5 WAR combined. 

Hardy(2011-12 in his age 28,29 seasons):

287 Games, .252 AVG, 52 HRs, 148 RBIs, 96 OPS+, good for 7.5 WAR. 

Hardy in the 3 seasons following the trade(2011,12 and 13) hit 30,22 and 25 HRs respectively. 

Gomez became a first time all star in 2013 and again in 2014. He finished ninth in MVP voting in 2013 and sixteenth in 2014. He also won a Gold Glove in 2013. 

Hardy won a Gold Glove in his second season in Baltimore in 2012 (also in '13), as well as the Silver Slugger and became an All Star in 2013. 

So why is this the worst trade ever for the Twins? Let's examine what they got from a numbers standpoint:

Brett Jacobsen never made the majors. So since I am using MLB stats, he's a non factor in this trade. Jim Hoey in 2011 for the Twins:

26 Games, 5.47 ERA, 75 ERA+, 5.58 FIP, good for a whopping -0.6 WAR. 

To summarize what the Twins gave up, received and then how the players did after the trade: 

From the trade in 2010 to the end of the 2012 season the Twins got a WAR of 0.7 (1.3 from the Hardy 2010 year, and a -0.6 from Hoey in 2011.) Hoey never played again after 2011 in the majors. 

The Brewers thrived and got 5.1 WAR between 2010-12 with Gomez and those weren't even his best years. (In 2013 he had a massive 7.6 WAR season and in 2014 had a 4.7 WAR season, all told, the five years after the trade through the end of 2014, Gomez produced a total of 17.4 WAR.)

The Orioles also won the trade with Hardy, getting a 7.4 WAR player the next two seasons, who played a premium position, was an All Star, Silver Slugger and GG winner. From 2010-14, Hardy was worth a massive 15.4 WAR(1.3 of those was 2010 with MIN)

So the Twins ended up getting $500,000, a player who never made the majors, and a pitcher who produced a -0.6 WAR, and gave up a SS who produced 14.1WAR the next four seasons and a CF who produced a 14.8 WAR and finished top-20 MVP twice. 

When you factor everything in, the fact the Twins were going to be the winners based on the two previous years of Hardy and Gomez' careers, the fact that Hardy produced a higher WAR then Gomez in the first full season of the trade, and then the ineptitude of the Twins to give him up and get absolutely nothing back (literally a Negative war player) makes this, for me, the worst trade in Twins history. 

As always, leave a comment below and let me know what your thoughts are! Can you think of a recent trade where we got less back and other players produced more in the last twenty three years?https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hardyjj01.shtml

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gomezca01.shtml

47 Comments


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Lefty61

Posted

Certainly the 2007 Garza and Bartlett for Delmon Young trade deserves some consideration, no more frustrating #1 pick to don a Twins uniform than Young,  Reverse that trade and the Twins handily win the Central in 2008 instead of White Sox.

AlwaysinModeration

Posted

On 7/16/2023 at 1:49 PM, Squirrel said:

If I recall ... didn't Gardy want Hardy gone for some reason? Still a horrible trade and one I wouldn't have made ... 

My recollection is that the Twins had just moved to Target Field, and they thought it was going to be a pitcher’s park, and Gardy didn’t like having a SS who couldn’t steal bases and/or run fast on the team.

Devlin Clark

Posted

14 hours ago, Lefty61 said:

Certainly the 2007 Garza and Bartlett for Delmon Young trade deserves some consideration, no more frustrating #1 pick to don a Twins uniform than Young,  Reverse that trade and the Twins handily win the Central in 2008 instead of White Sox.

Delmon Young has a 100RBI season in a Twins uniform. Can't call that bad just bc of that

Devlin Clark

Posted

On 7/21/2023 at 8:10 AM, Trov said:

Really it is the Hardy to Baltimore that was the worst trade, not the Hardy for Gomez. You group 2 trades in as the worst trade, but if you look at the trade of Gomez and Hardy it was not a bad trade.  The follow of up sending Hardy away because Twins thought they had a SS coming from Japan was the terrible trade.  If we kept Hardy and he produced what he did with Baltimore with Twins we would not say it was a bad trade.  

This is a VERY fair point and 1 of which I did take into account. I didn't want to continue the pattern bc then I'd have to include the Joham trade which brought Gomez in etc. I also wanted to show the full spectrum of the trade in terms of what the Twins gave up. Yes the Hardy trade as an outlier is the worst, but then others would say "Why didn't you include Gomez in this article bc he traded Hardy for him" so I widened the spectrum. I appreciate you reading and thanks for the idea!

lecroy24fan

Posted

31 minutes ago, Devlin Clark said:

When Rob Wilfong is the centerpiece, it's bad. 

Especially when he wasn't involved it that trade.

dex8425

Posted

9 hours ago, AlwaysinModeration said:

My recollection is that the Twins had just moved to Target Field, and they thought it was going to be a pitcher’s park, and Gardy didn’t like having a SS who couldn’t steal bases and/or run fast on the team.

Yes. Gardy thought shortstops should be short, fast guys, not tall guys with strong arms. Old school vs hey, look at all the shortstops now-Correa, Seager, Tatis, Machado, Didi, heck, Oneill Cruz is 6"7!

Dantes929

Posted

On 7/24/2023 at 9:25 AM, LewFordLives said:

The Santana trade has to be up there. At the end of the day, what did they get.... NOTHING (see article above).

I hated the trade at time and it didn't age well. There was no reason to make the trade. He was under contract through 2008. If they couldn't reach agreement on a contract they could have made him play it out and then let him walk after 2008 and take the compensation picks. Instead they traded him for a collection of projects from the Mets and missed winning the division by one game.

I don't like it when people say you gotta get something for a pending free agent. Is there no value in watching a generational talent like Johan for one more season and making the playoffs?  That one just really stings.

Exactly my thoughts.    So often there has been talk of we need an ace or we need to rent an ace.   We had arguably the best pitcher in baseball for a well below market one year deal.    He said he wouldn't waive his no trade clause during mid season but that could well have been a negotiating stance and I am guessing if the Twins were tanking in 2008 he would have welcomed a trade to a contender.   As it was we played a game 163 which we lost but if we had Santana it is very likely we would have won the division outright.   Yes, we would have been the underdogs again in the playoffs but with an ace like him it is not so far fetched that we could have done well.   For starters we wouldn't have played the Yankees in the first round.    This to me was the worst trade.    Ramos for Capps hurt a bit.   The Herr for Brunansky was a good one on paper.  Who knew the guy was going to be such a putz?

Lefty61

Posted

7 hours ago, Devlin Clark said:

Delmon Young has a 100RBI season in a Twins uniform. Can't call that bad just bc of that

Not an impact 100 RBIs in year 3 of Twins career after first two seasons sub 70 RBIs, Twins knew 2010 was an aberration and salary dumped Delmon to Tigers the next August for a couple minor leaguers to avoid Year 5 of the Delmon Young mystery tour.  Original trade for Delmon still cost Twins 2008 Division title, and Bartlett's first 3 years total War in TB was 10.4, Garza 7.9 War, Young for Twins 1.0...the more I revisit the more I hate that one.   

insagt1

Posted

noticing that Arraez is finally leveling off to the hitter that most felt he always was...a solid .300-.330 hitter who could always be in the race for the batting title. Over the last 30 games he is still a .300 hitter but not the upper stratosphere .400 hitter that some felt he might sustain. Still in the .370's but that will probably continue to fall.

Lopez---his first year in Minnesota has been up and down. But a solid finish down the stretch will help the Twins perhaps be a competitor in post season. So that will be good.

2Twins1Puck

Posted

Well, to be fair.. for what we got out of Gomez.. trading Santana was pretty rough.. Santana was meant to stay a Twin at a time we really needed an Ace.. Also, it can be argued trading Garza and Bartlett for Young and Harris was terrible as Garza & Bartlett were two key pieces to the Rays first WS run.. #RIP2006Twins

 

TopGunn#22

Posted

I'll go a little different direction.  Instead of a trade let's look at a couple guys who were released who still had a lot more "juice" than the Twins were expecting.  First, let's look at Luis Tiant.  The twins traded Craig Nettles, Dean Chance and Ted Uelander to Cleveland for him prior to the 1970 season.  In 1968 Tiant was dominant going 16-8 with and ERA well below 2.00.  In 1969 he started having some health issues so the Guardians shipped him to the Twins at seasons end.  Tiant still wasn't "right" but went 7-3 for the Twins with a 3.50 ERA in 1970.  We let him go and the Red Sox scooped him up, let him get healthy and he came back with a vengeance in 1972 and won 20 games a couple times for the Red Sox.  The Twins should have been more patient with him.

The other is Jim Kaat.  Kitty had been one of the most consistent pitchers in Twins history and was lights out in 1972 going 10-2 with a 2.07 ERA by the All Star break, but he began having health problems, something he had never experienced before and in the off season the Twins cut him loose.  He landed with the White sox and won 20 games a couple times for them as well before bouncing around to several teams as his career wound down.  Again, the Twins should have been more patient.  They could have had several more productive years from Kaat if Calvin wasn't just trying to save a buck all the time.  

Road trip

Posted

Yeah, Kaat and Tiant.  Just a hair before my time of following the Twins, but wow, talk about epic bad decisions to save paltry sums of money!

As much as we may complain about current ownership, the Pohlad family is much better than Griffith!

annismark

Posted

On 7/25/2023 at 9:10 AM, Five minute major said:

In a few years, this will be replaced by the Mahle for CES and Steer trade.  Book it.

very few

annismark

Posted

12 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

I'll go a little different direction.  Instead of a trade let's look at a couple guys who were released who still had a lot more "juice" than the Twins were expecting.  First, let's look at Luis Tiant.  The twins traded Craig Nettles, Dean Chance and Ted Uelander to Cleveland for him prior to the 1970 season.  In 1968 Tiant was dominant going 16-8 with and ERA well below 2.00.  In 1969 he started having some health issues so the Guardians shipped him to the Twins at seasons end.  Tiant still wasn't "right" but went 7-3 for the Twins with a 3.50 ERA in 1970.  We let him go and the Red Sox scooped him up, let him get healthy and he came back with a vengeance in 1972 and won 20 games a couple times for the Red Sox.  The Twins should have been more patient with him.

The other is Jim Kaat.  Kitty had been one of the most consistent pitchers in Twins history and was lights out in 1972 going 10-2 with a 2.07 ERA by the All Star break, but he began having health problems, something he had never experienced before and in the off season the Twins cut him loose.  He landed with the White sox and won 20 games a couple times for them as well before bouncing around to several teams as his career wound down.  Again, the Twins should have been more patient.  They could have had several more productive years from Kaat if Calvin wasn't just trying to save a buck all the time.  

Kaat get hurt sliding into 2nd base.  Broke his hand.

 

 

old nurse

Posted

Did not read the comments. Somebody must remember the Rod Carew trade. 

Guest

Posted

Let's just say there's a LOT of competition for the prize of worst overall trade in Twins' history....

jmlease1

Posted

14 hours ago, Minderbinder said:

Let's just say there's a LOT of competition for the prize of worst overall trade in Twins' history....

It's important to realize that every team has these, though, if they've been around long enough. It stinks in the moment, and burns when someone really emerges 2-4 years later that you dealt, but pretty much every fandom has some of these stinkers that get brought up and usually start with, "Can you believe those idiots traded [X] for [Y]?!? Man, were we stupid!"

The JJ Hardy stuff drove me batty at the time because it felt so clearly driven by Gardy (who obviously had a lot more say in the organization once Terry Ryan left and Bill Smith took over) and even if Hardy didn't have best season it felt like our manager was running another SS out of town just because he didn't like his style or something, and after having the corpse of Orlando Cabrera manning the spot it just felt wrong. And we spent years and year trying to find a quality SS after that.

LeatherAntenna

Posted

My worst was 1987 trading Brunansky for Tommy Herr.  Bruno played a big part in the twins dispatching Detroit in the Alcs in 5 games hitting 412 with 2HRs and 9 RBIs in the series though his bat went quiet in the World Series.   Traded a month after the Twins win the World Series, they receive winner cry baby Tommy Herr who between his bitching on having to play for Minnesota was pretty useless on the field the next year.  Bruno went on to be productive with his power for six more years.

dxpavelka

Posted

Complain about the Jaime Garcia deal(s) all you want but the fun fact is that he won more games for the Twins than he did for the Yankees that year.

 

Greglw3

Posted

For me, this is an easy pick.

Calvin Griffith traded Rod Carew away after he had hit .350, .359, .364, .388 and won an MVP award along with 7 batting titles, 239 hits in 1977, stole in the 40s in bases at least twice.

If you thought the Pohlads were cheap!

Who, in their right mind, even in their wrong mind would trade a 7 time batting titlest. The return was inconsequential. 

Fat Calvin

Posted

On 7/30/2023 at 4:33 AM, LeatherAntenna said:

My worst was 1987 trading Brunansky for Tommy Herr.  Bruno played a big part in the twins dispatching Detroit in the Alcs in 5 games hitting 412 with 2HRs and 9 RBIs in the series though his bat went quiet in the World Series.   Traded a month after the Twins win the World Series, they receive winner cry baby Tommy Herr who between his bitching on having to play for Minnesota was pretty useless on the field the next year.  Bruno went on to be productive with his power for six more years.

I totally agree with you on this.  Not only was it a horrible trade statistically but it destroyed the amazing club house chemistry and the whole camaraderie between the players and the fans and the whole community.  I remember clearly the amazing celebration that erupted when we finally won not only a world series but a real championship in any sport.  It brought everyone together.  And then, just a month later, they go and trade one of the heroes, one of our boys.  They broke up the family, and for what?  Tommy Herr.  He was terrible both on the field and off the field.  A dour personality, the exact opposite of our Bruno.  It was a real shortsighted blockheaded trade.


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