Trevor Larnach has good spring training stats.  Thanks for a good article.

I'd say Ober is looking like he may be more than a #4. He is turning into the prototype of what we have been waiting for from Falvey based on his Cleveland days; take a relatively unheralded pitching prospect and turn him into a top half of the rotation starter. It seems criminal to keep him off the opening day roster. 

Rocco has been a loser this Spring. He still does not have his batters move runners over. Several times this Spring the Twins had more hits than the other team, but fewer runs. Spring training would have been a good time to practice moving runners over, but it just did not happen. The Twins are not going to be a good hitting team so they need to move runners over to score runs or they will be a losing team just like last year. Teams like the Twins that hit into so many double plays usually finish with losing records.

Agree with the top three comments: Larnach played his way onto the varsity - hard to have a better spring than that; Ober is way too good to have languishing on the JV - the Twins are foregoing their best chance for wins by not having him start every fifth day; Rocco once again does not appear to have his team ready to go out of the gate - but we shall see.

Also, Kepler had a nice spring.  

This excellent article made me wonder which players would be in the starting lineup if the choice were based on merit vs. other factors (i.e. reputation, $’s, FO/Manager ego, etc.)? One take:

Larnach (LF), Gordon (CF), Kepler (RF), Farmer (3B), Correa (SS),  Julien (2B), Miranda (1B), Vasquez (C), and Buxton (DH). Gallo, Solano, and Taylor on the bench. On the bump, Ober over Maeda; but Maeda over Pagan as a reliever.

Nice article!  Can't say I disagree with much.  I do think Kenta deserves some time to get his groove back and cold weather can be tough on arms as it can be harder to grip the ball so it might be bit before the Twins know where he is at.  Coming back from TJ is never easy and it often times seems it takes a full year of pitching to "really" be back. We'll see how he Maeda does but he is a competitor and I wouldn't bet against him.

Maeda looked like he took a step forward in his last start

I sure hope ober understands that he is a vital cog in the wheel of the machine. Something is going to get him across the river and he will probably never go back.  The rotation is the real winner on this team.  All potential #2 and#3 SP make this a staff with great potential!!

11 hours ago, wabene said:

Maeda looked like he took a step forward in his last start

Yeah, I'd even go as far to put Maeda in the winner column. Sure, his spring stats weren't great, but he's coming back from a major injury and just to have him out there throwing multiple innings again is encouraging to me. 

4 hours ago, Doctor Wu said:

Yeah, I'd even go as far to put Maeda in the winner column. Sure, his spring stats weren't great, but he's coming back from a major injury and just to have him out there throwing multiple innings again is encouraging to me. 

Spring training is all about working, developing and getting into shape for the season to start. You can try different things, with may show negatively in performance in games. But Madea does look like he is ready for a full season. Now, can he give us 25-28 starts at least and 150 innings. 

I think Maeda looks close to ready but no way he goes 25 plus starts and 150 innings. He's 19 months from pitching in an MLB game. I think we'll be lucky to get 90-100 innings, 15-17 starts from him. Ober will get the other "half" of that starting spot. Or more likely, an injury or two happens and Maeda, Ober and Varland all get 15 plus starts at the MLB level. 

My prediction is that by August, Ober will be in the starting rotation and Maeda will be in the bullpen - just like the dodgers used to pitch him over the course of the season. worked pretty well, too. 

Willi Castro has been better than I expected. He might have a little upside he hasn't shown before.

Regarding the last point, this may be the deepest Twins squad since the 91 World Series winner.  Somebody will say something about the squads over the 2000s until 2011, but those teams always had deep bullpens, but a couple of starts with no business in the major leagues and several AAAA fielders.  Everyone on this squad is a clear major league player.  The only players anyone could argue may not be ready are Larnach (due to experience) and Pagan (who actually had a better second half after being pulled out of the closer role).

Even better is that there are major league caliber players at AAA at every section of the roster. 

I know there is some heartburn over Ober, but we haven't had a ready starter at AAA to start a season in decades, let alone three.  But with Ober, which of the five starts would you dump for him on opening day?  People mention putting Maeda in the bullpen, but he was so dissatisfied with relief that he asked the Dodgers for a trade and was an outstanding starting for us.  He deserves the right to try to start again after the injury.  Not letting him try is disloyal and would have ramifications for morale and our desirability as a landing place for pitchers in later years.  Players remember and word gets around.

On 3/26/2023 at 8:29 AM, John Belinski said:

Rocco has been a loser this Spring. He still does not have his batters move runners over. Several times this Spring the Twins had more hits than the other team, but fewer runs. Spring training would have been a good time to practice moving runners over, but it just did not happen. The Twins are not going to be a good hitting team so they need to move runners over to score runs or they will be a losing team just like last year. Teams like the Twins that hit into so many double plays usually finish with losing records.

You had me at Rocco has been a loser.

On 3/26/2023 at 4:50 AM, TL said:

I'd say Ober is looking like he may be more than a #4. He is turning into the prototype of what we have been waiting for from Falvey based on his Cleveland days; take a relatively unheralded pitching prospect and turn him into a top half of the rotation starter. It seems criminal to keep him off the opening day roster. 

5 minutes ago, Swing Batter-Batter said:

You had me at Rocco has been a loser.

Ober has a number four ceiling until he can crank up his fastball to 95 consistently. That would make his other pitches that much more effective. Also in 2021 Rocco often would take Ober out after four innings, sometimes five, indicating he didn’t have confidence in Ober or was concerned about health. That has to change too. 

Deepest team since the world series champs of 1992 or teams of the mid 2000s.  That's a stretch.  This team is deeper but a lot of it is unproven depth.  Three of our starting pitchers are entering the last year of their contract. Two of those with injury problems.  Probably all three.  We paid a career .199 hitter 11 million for one year.  He strikes out at about the same as Sano did.  Our offense could be very anemic.  Twins don't have much to protect Correa in the lineup.  If your an opposing pitcher,why pitch to him when there is much of a reliable hitter behind him?  Bullpen is average with some very good pieces.  Last year they got burned out from overuse in the first half of the season.  I think they have a lot of potential but there is a lot of questions marks all the way around.  Everything will have to go just right.  And with another projected record payroll I would imagine it's time for the manager and front office to show some positive results or be shown the door.

2 hours ago, Otaknam said:

 

Ober has a number four ceiling until he can crank up his fastball to 95 consistently. That would make his other pitches that much more effective. Also in 2021 Rocco often would take Ober out after four innings, sometimes five, indicating he didn’t have confidence in Ober or was concerned about health. That has to change too. 

Ober is 6'9" - he's going to have a release point closer to home plate than a pitch who is, say, 6 inches shorter. A batter has less reaction time when a pitch it thrown harder - but also when it is released closer to home plate. Given that he has struck out 263 batters in 214 minor league innings and 147 in 148 major league innings, it doesn't appear that throwing harder is necessarily a key need for him.

On 3/27/2023 at 12:16 PM, Rosterman said:

Spring training is all about working, developing and getting into shape for the season to start. You can try different things, with may show negatively in performance in games. But Madea does look like he is ready for a full season. Now, can he give us 25-28 starts at least and 150 innings. 

He struck out Aaron Judge & popped up Josh Donaldson on Friday in his 4th inning of work. His 60th pitch was 92Mph Maeda will be OK!

4 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

Deepest team since the world series champs of 1992 or teams of the mid 2000s.  That's a stretch.  This team is deeper but a lot of it is unproven depth.  Three of our starting pitchers are entering the last year of their contract. Two of those with injury problems.  Probably all three.  We paid a career .199 hitter 11 million for one year.  He strikes out at about the same as Sano did.  Our offense could be very anemic.  Twins don't have much to protect Correa in the lineup.  If your an opposing pitcher,why pitch to him when there is much of a reliable hitter behind him?  Bullpen is average with some very good pieces.  Last year they got burned out from overuse in the first half of the season.  I think they have a lot of potential but there is a lot of questions marks all the way around.  Everything will have to go just right.  And with another projected record payroll I would imagine it's time for the manager and front office to show some positive results or be shown the door.

I agree about the bullpen overuse at times but I believe the Twins bullpen ranked in the top 8 the 2nd half of the season.

Good call on Celestino. He really needed to stand out from the get-go given the soon-to-be numbers crunch in OF. Didn’t get the opportunity.

Let’s take a TBD on the FO being a spring winner. Deep doesn’t necessarily mean good. It just means you have a relatively high floor.

This team stands a very real chance of being bad offensively. The team was middle of the pack last year, and there’s risk that with Arraez gone and Taylor playing most games in Center…not to mention questions regarding Polanco…that it gets worse, not better. Relying on too many established guys like Kepler and Gallo being “better than they were last year” doesn’t have a great track record of success. Nor does predicting more than a half season out of Buxton, no matter what position he plays. Could it all come together? Sure. But, let’s wait and see.

The starting staff lifts the upside, but how much really?. How much better are we at the top of the rotation? A lot? I don’t see a meaningfully higher ceiling unless it comes from guys we didn’t even see this spring…like, Kirilloff becoming healthy and really good, or Lewis joining mid-season and being a star, or Buxton playing 100+ games in center with 500+ PA.

It really doesn't begin to matter until Memorial Day. After that, let's see where they are.

On 3/27/2023 at 7:22 PM, DJL44 said:

Willi Castro has been better than I expected. He might have a little upside he hasn't shown before.

19 Ks in 40 ABs, and many of those against the fluff pitchers at the end of games. Did you expect worse? 😉

But OPS, SLG, and OBP all pretty fine.

On 3/28/2023 at 11:24 AM, Whitey333 said:

Deepest team since the world series champs of 1992 or teams of the mid 2000s.  That's a stretch.  This team is deeper but a lot of it is unproven depth.  Three of our starting pitchers are entering the last year of their contract. Two of those with injury problems.  Probably all three.  We paid a career .199 hitter 11 million for one year.  He strikes out at about the same as Sano did.  Our offense could be very anemic.  Twins don't have much to protect Correa in the lineup.  If your an opposing pitcher,why pitch to him when there is much of a reliable hitter behind him?  Bullpen is average with some very good pieces.  Last year they got burned out from overuse in the first half of the season.  I think they have a lot of potential but there is a lot of questions marks all the way around.  Everything will have to go just right.  And with another projected record payroll I would imagine it's time for the manager and front office to show some positive results or be shown the door.

Man, you don't get into the spring training spirit at all.  :) 

Regardless, name a team since 1991 that was deeper.  And remember that depth includes call-up depth in the minors that is actually major league ready.  I see two big flaws in your reasoning.  Do you really feel there isn't a single decent hitter to follow behind Correa?  And what does contract status have to with depth?  Bringing up free agency in another season seems to indicate you're looking for reasons not to believe.