An Offseason To-Do List for the Minnesota Twins

56 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

They're taught that because defense is terrible in little league and just putting the ball in play leads to a high batting average. Little league strategies don't work in the major leagues. You have to be able to hit the ball hard or you'll end up hitting below .200.

They're taught that - just like MLB hitters were taught that for over 100 years - because with 2 strikes, behind in the count, your odds of getting a pitch to hit are diminished.  Making adjustments in order to put the ball in play is simply playing the odds.  Which is what I thought analytics were all about.  

Gray will no doubt receive a QO. Unless the retrenchment of the Mets and Padres triggers a significant free agency bear market (low probability, owners just can't help themselves), he will certainly decline it. Even if he is semi-serious about retirement, a contract affords him a powerful option. His agent certainly will make that point. 

If the payroll is $30 million lower, Kepler and Polanco are luxuries that you can't afford if you want those luxuries at all. Can they be parlayed separately or together into pitching help? I don't know but I would certainly make the calls.  

I would try to flip the Vasquez contract but that may be a fool's errand. He is a replacement player earning $10 million per. 

The off-season activity from the Twins may seem muted for monetary reasons but the good news is that the team looks fierce, as is, going into 2024. 

I hope that I am surprised positively and the FO makes more noise than I expect. The Twins' open letter to fans suggests that ownerships gets that people will support a winner. I have spent a lot of time at Target Field and the place was unrecognizable to me in October.  The dissonance was sublime. 

27 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

They're taught that - just like MLB hitters were taught that for over 100 years - because with 2 strikes, behind in the count, your odds of getting a pitch to hit are diminished.  Making adjustments in order to put the ball in play is simply playing the odds.  Which is what I thought analytics were all about.  

So let's examine the odds. The average for all balls in play is right around .300. So that means just putting the ball in play is 3/10 to get on base. The whole choke up / make contact approach has a best case of a double, but overwhelmingly favors singles. Is being on first better than striking out? Yes. 

Is getting to first worth surrendering most extra base opportunities? Seems less clear. There's a lot of run expectancy to study. 

They struck out in 26% of their at bats. That's rough in isolation. They were 6th in WRC+ and 10th in overall runs. That means their league leading K percentage didn't hurt them THAT much. We know that there were stretches where it was very difficult for them to score. It definitely means that if the K% could come down a little, the runs would definitely go up. I doubt we'll see a complete overhaul of the approach. But that there will bean emphasis on not getting to two strikes and having two approaches with 2 strikes. I'm certain that with nobody on, they will not favor the put it in play approach outside multiple run deficits and bottom of 9th on situations. Then, there probably will be a little more focus on reaching base. Overall, I'm sure their number crunching had concluded that the strikeout is a worthy risk in exchange for the HR/ double.  

23 minutes ago, August J Gloop said:

Is being on first better than striking out? Yes. 

Is getting to first worth surrendering most extra base opportunities? Seems less clear. There's a lot of run expectancy to study. 

 

Here we go with the fallacy that "in order to get extra base hits we must strike out a ton."  Houston has struck out less than any team in baseball over the past 5-10 years.  Ask them if they've had trouble scoring runs as a result. 

If there is a direct correlation between increased Ks and increased XBHs, I'd love to see it!  For example, since the Twins struck out more times than any team in history, it would follow that they had more XBH's than any team in history too, right?  Did that happen?  

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Players were taught a lot of things that were wrong. This might or might not be

You're saying it doesn't matter what the count is, the odds of getting a good pitch to hit is all the same?  Hot take.  

1 hour ago, Woof Bronzer said:

They're taught that - just like MLB hitters were taught that for over 100 years - because with 2 strikes, behind in the count, your odds of getting a pitch to hit are diminished.  Making adjustments in order to put the ball in play is simply playing the odds.  Which is what I thought analytics were all about.  

MLB defense was also a lot worse over 100 years ago. Strategies change.

If you're playing the odds then (like Julien) you should take close pitches on a 3-2 count hoping for a walk. A .500 OBP beats a .180 batting average every time.

Ted Williams figured out all this stuff in the 1940s. 

• Rule #1 - Get a Good Ball to Hit.
• Rule #2 - Proper Thinking.
• Rule #3 - Be Quick with the Bat.

I feel like "Finding a front-line starter to replace Sonny Gray" and "Gamble on another high-upside starting pitcher" are an either/or proposition for this team...unless you are willing to consider Chris Paddack as an option to fill one of these roles. I just don't see the Twins adding more than one starting pitcher with the rotation currently looking like Lopez, Paddack, Ryan, Ober, and Varland. I think it's very possible (even likely) that they will look to add a veteran to compete for that last starting spot, but seems much less likely that they'll add 2 (unless they convince Varland that his future is in the bullpen). It's hard to know exactly how good Paddack will be as a starter next year but he was solid pre-injury for the Twins and his stuff looked excellent in his bullpen stints this fall and with a healthy offseason to prepare he should be ready form Day 1. Lopez and Ryan are locks, and Ober should be as well. Ober was really good and showed it's possible for him to stay healthy.

I'm more interested in looking for internal options to shore up 1B and provide insurance for Kirilloff, unless they get an early indicator that he won't be ready for spring training. Miranda seems to be an obvious fit with his RH bat, but I would also be telling Severino to work on his 1B skills in the offseason (Julien too).

Making sure they manage CF effectively will be key.  They were smart last season bringing in Michael A. Taylor to ensure they had a quality fielder regardless of Buck's health. I feel like the roster is tighter now, but Castro's emergence as an effective defender basically anywhere but catcher certainly helps, and Austin Martin might be ready to step in as well. If they bring back someone like Taylor, they probably need to move an infielder? (Farmer or Polanco seems the most likely choice; both have real value as trade candidates, but also play in areas where we have depth. Julien can slot in at 2B for Polanco just fine, and we'd still have Lee, Martin, and even Miranda as depth options to come up to deal with injuries; Farmer is a backup for us who could start for other teams and I think the front office would be comfortable with Castro, Lewis, or maybe even Lee backing up SS and we have options to support 2B and 3B as well.) I'm not sure what the right choice is, and suspect the twins won't know either until December when they get a better feel for where Buxton's knee is.

4 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

Here we go with the fallacy that "in order to get extra base hits we must strike out a ton."  Houston has struck out less than any team in baseball over the past 5-10 years.  Ask them if they've had trouble scoring runs as a result. 

If there is a direct correlation between increased Ks and increased XBHs, I'd love to see it!  For example, since the Twins struck out more times than any team in history, it would follow that they had more XBH's than any team in history too, right?  Did that happen?  

 

Houston has, infact, struck out at the 6th Lowest rate over the past 10 years. They are 3rd in scoring over that period. 4.75 RPG.

Of the 5 teams who have struck out at a lower rate than HOU, only 1 has scored more runs. That would be Boston. 4.92 RPG. (I'm beginning to think there might be something LEFT out of the explanation for that). 

The other 4 teams with similar strikeout percentages have scored on average 500 runs less over the past decade.

Also, over that same period of time the Twins are 7th, at 4.55 RPG.  It can not be denied that over the past 10 years Houston has held a pretty stark talent advantage on the offensive side. So it could be argued that the Twins have closed the talent gap to some degree by taking a higher risk, higher reward approach to two strike hitting. 

Let's just consider 2023. We see the Twins scored 4.8 runs per game. The Astros 5.1. Seems cut and dry, right? Less Strike outs, more runz! But! It's not an inverse thing. Of the top 10 in not striking out, only Houston, Atlanta and the Dodgers actually scored more runs than the Twins. Obviously, the Twins want to strike out less. Who wouldn't? They'd love to get their K% down to 20%. But not at the cost of OPS. It's very possible and even quite likely that they will do exactly that next year by just continuing to refine the process. Chop 2.5% of their strike outs, mostly by not missing as many pitches earlier in the at bats? Become a top 5 offense. 

1 minute ago, JD-TWINS said:

 

Farmer - Polanco - Castro - Gordon - Julien - Lee………all capable of playing 2B.

Farmer - Castro - Lee……….all capable of playing SS

Polanco - Farmer - Castro……….all capable of playing 3B

There’s a strong possibility that Julien plays every day at 2B v. RH pitching.

Polanco played 104 games in ‘22 & hit .235 - he played 80 games this year & hit .255. He’s a career .270 hitter. It seems other clubs would have access to the information that shows a distinct decline in output & availability. If I’m a GM & discussing Polanco with the Twins it’s also pretty easy to see the clogged roster spots in the infield…….seems to be a clear bargaining chip.

I’m taking the less cost player with best defense as my utility guy in the infield - guy v. LH pitching at 2B. Farmer.

Castro is going to be on the roster and available at all 3 spots as well.

We can sign & trade Polanco, as I stated, with the probable caveat that another player will need to be included to get reasonable return.

We could also not take any financial risk and do him a favor and let him be a FA.

He obviously has declining value, though I would never use BA to demonstrate that. OPS+ and his defense are a better gauge. 

I suspect ZIPs will project him as a 115 OPS+ in 2024 and play about 110 games. That should be good for about 2.5 WAR as a 2B when you roll in his below-average defense.

That's still the most valuable middle infielder on the FA market and scarcity artificially raises value.

But I guess we'll have to agree to disagree on his value. 

We'll likely never get this settled. I'll be surprised if the team doesn't pick up his option and he is the opening day second baseman for 2024.

3 hours ago, DJL44 said:

They're taught that because defense is terrible in little league and just putting the ball in play leads to a high batting average. Little league strategies don't work in the major leagues. You have to be able to hit the ball hard or you'll end up hitting below .200.

See Kepler, 2020-2022.  Didn't strike out super often, put the ball in play, but stunk because he didn't hit it hard in the air and it ended up on the ground.

9 minutes ago, GNess said:

The strike out issue has been oversimplified. The power potential of each hitter must be considered inasmuch as there are players far more likely to hit home runs than others. The less powerful players should more often than not concentrate more on putting the ball in play with two strikes or with almost any count for that matter. 

One size doesn't fit all in this debate. 

We also need to consider that positive outcomes aren't just limited to base hits - errors, driving in a runner by grounding out or a sac fly, advancing runners from 2nd to third  and putting stress on the defense have some value in many game situations as well. 

Having said all that, the Twins finished in the Top Ten in runs scored - which is certainly the most important offensive metric despite leading the league in strikeouts. Possibly some tweaks are needed, not a major overhaul in approach.

Honestly, I think my biggest gripe is that there seemed to be too many ABs where we watched middle-middle mistake pitches go right down the plate without swinging.  This seemed to get slightly better towards the end of the season, but still was a lot worse compared to other teams.  If they can get back to destroying hitter pitches...no reason they can't increase their offense. 
In too many of the games against Houston, it was getting completely caught off-guard by the pitch sequence, etc.  I could care less about strikeouts if they make a good swing and are beat by an amazing pitch.  Or if they don't pull the trigger in a full count when the ump made a bad call.  I just want less confused faces at the plate.

In regards to the offseason check list, I think a #1-2 type starter (similar to Gray ideally, but possibly the next bracket down) is high on the list.  They have done a great job with offseason pitching trades, so if this works, great.  I would feel a little disappointed if the biggest pitching move this offseason was closer to a Bundy type #5-6 guy vs. someone more trustworthy.

And I would say CF is next on the list.  Based on the last few years, I doubt they will let CF be just Buxton, Martin, Lewis, Gordon, etc.  I also don't see Castro being their MAT next year where he could play 100 games in CF.  But depending on how they feel about Martin, they also don't seem likely to sign someone for more than 1-2 years.

Everything else seems more manageable or typical.  RH OF bat? Depends on the market - too bad Gordon wasn't a RHB.  RH IF bat? Maybe, maybe even Farmer or Miranda.  Bench player? Likely via minor league deal or $2 mil Solano type deal.  Mid relief? Possibly Pagan, but probably a flyer on someone.

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

I agree that replacing Gray is the top priority.

I really like Wallner, but it's going to be hard to reconcile his spot if the team has any intent of fixing the strikeout problem. Gallo is obviously gone and Larnach is much more expendable. But most of this board seems to want Michael Taylor back, but his strikeouts and lack of walks really gutted that offense. The team is stuck with Buxton. Can they figure out an offense with he, Julien and Wallner all striking out over 30% of their plate appearances? Julien seems most likely to fix that, and also more integral to the team.

Maybe they can make it work, but they have to stop fanning with runners in scoring position all the time. If Wallner is the answer to replacing Sonny Gray (a la Arraez in 2022) I'd be interested.

Wallner had the 2nd highest wRC+ on the team OPS so I am not inclined to see him as a problem.  Gallo will be gone.  That will help.  It would be really big if Martin stepped up next year and took on that back-up CFer role.  He could also get quite a few ABs against LHP even when Buxton plays.  I would also bet Julien's K rate goes down and Lewis will get more ABs next year assuming he stays healthy.  That should help too.  That said ... I have to agree with you that we can't have so many guys with a high K rate.

8 hours ago, Minny505 said:

It is incredible how his bad week of games in the playoffs has soured so many on Wallner. It's probably safe to say that he has the 5th highest trade value right now in the Twins entire organization.

1. Lewis
2. Lee
3. Jenkins
4. Julien
5. Wallner
6. Festa

Exactly zero of those 6 will be traded. Add in Duran, Paddock, Erod and a few more that are off limits. The F.O. is building from within and making a big trade about once every 10 months. The next trade will involve getting a top SP. 

10 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Extend Jhoan Duran should be on this offseason checklist.

I'm locking up Lewis first.  Even with his injury history, I'm in for an 8 year deal with Royce

13 minutes ago, HrbieFan said:

I'm locking up Lewis first.  Even with his injury history, I'm in for an 8 year deal with Royce

For sure. Pitchers flame out faster than we would like. 

10 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Q - Veteran decisions:

This is a BIG deal! Not only a bit of potential financial relief but a much bigger deal from a clubhouse perspective. Does the Team re-sign or “execute option” & possibly work a trade?

With Polanco’s health issues, & our infield depth coming up, I straight up let him walk & thank him for his service by letting him be a FA……….other option would be to sign & couple him with someone in a trade for an NL prospect. Don’t need him in the AL.

For the $10.5M & with his 2nd half resurgence, I think we need to sign Max for 1 more year. 

Buxton - IMO, the PLAN has to be that he doesn’t exist. We need real CF options and he needs to be outside of those options (Castro - Gordon - Martin……..all probably comparable or better offensive stats with Taylor’s ‘23 output) & sufficient defensively. If CF & Catcher are the only sub-standard offensive spots we have we’ll be OK!

 

Q -Top end starter adds/re-sign Gray:

Been behind making Sonny an offer for 2-3 years but frankly, it’s mostly sentimental. His upside doesn’t offset the potential downside. We got burned with Mahle - Buxton is going to linger - don’t need a 34 year old pitcher with high injury risk/high $$$! Make the QO & take the pick and consider his tenure here a real plus……….that said, Festa or somebody is going to come out of our organization by ‘25. We have 5 starters now - we need affordable starter depth - that’s spelled KENTA!

Q - Extensions:

I’d try to extend Ryan…….if we could extend Durán, it makes real sense, before he is a national star……..he’s close to that now. His two innings of flawless relief in Game 4 stamped him as the most dominant young reliever in the game.

Q - Fist base option:

Kirilloff!!….130 games. If Solano is still able to hit, he’s the obvious 2B for all games not played by Kirilloff. He’s probably released or traded by the deadline if he’s not in that .265BA plus range.

IF Buxton can’t run but can hit, he needs to get proficient at 1B throughout the year……….Spring Training - special assignment during season “coming off IL” - gotta be able to play there by end of August…….need options with him other than DH.

 

I totally agree with you about resigning Kenta.  I'd give him up to a two-year deal; nothing more.  He's a crafty one.

1 hour ago, Fatbat said:

Exactly zero of those 6 will be traded. Add in Duran, Paddock, Erod and a few more that are off limits. The F.O. is building from within and making a big trade about once every 10 months. The next trade will involve getting a top SP. 

Really. I mean I like all of those players but if the team can be improved a trade can happen with some of those guys (Lee, Julien, or Wallner). I'm not expecting one of these players to be traded but it would not be a surprise.