Twins Daily 2024 Top Prospects: #3.5 Gabriel González, OF

I would not be surprised to see him flipped if the Twins make a move for some more pitching.  He seems to be a bit of a boom or bust type of prospect.  Hope he does well!

I'm not a strong believer in his bat skills long term. Hope I'm wrong, but there is just too much miss in his swing and his swing has too much effort. 

My vote is that he sticks around at least this year and possibly quite a bit longer in the Twins system. Why?

1. Being young for his level, his value should only rise as he gets more selective and proves his hitting tool. His trade value should be projected to rise even if he falls out of the top 100.

2. Our outfield depth is really not that great. We have three decent major league starters, but all three have big risks via their futures (Buxton - health, Kepler - won’t be here, Wallner - fully making the leap).  After that, near term depth is a bit dicey with Castro, Gordon, Martin, Larnach, Keirsey, etc.  It’s not clear that any one of them will ever be an above average MLB outfielder. So, Gabby fits in well with the next group of Jenkins, Rodríguez, Winokur and Rosario.  It’s very possible that at least two of this group of five prospects will need to be starters in our outfield by 2026.

3. The Twins like to acquire players whom they think they can tweak to unlock a top tool. Gabby’s top tool - hitting - happens to be the most important one. The Twins are betting they can transform that tool into better hitting plus power.

Gabby was specifically part of the Polanco trade for a reason: he has the potential to fill a critical role and perform at a top level on the varsity for many years after Polanco, Topa and DeSclafani are long gone.

another K King ??..yeah we really need more of those

González's calling card is his bat, so don't be surprised if he can unlock a new gear with the Twins' player development staff, who are known to accentuate hitting prospects' strengths.

Yes, that's why we have so many players at the major league level who hit .230 or less.

I do not know if Twins will look to flip him, but from what I read he seems to be a guy that will be aggressive at plate and can hit pitches in all zones. The question for him will be can he make enough contact when pitchers start throwing nothing but breaking pitches that break out of the zone, or will he be able to stay off them.  I am not one that says a player cannot be successful at MLB level if they expand the zone, but it is very rare.  There are some that have had HOF careers and have been known to expand the zone.  Again, they had super star abilities to do it.  The big issue is either committing one way or the other in my opinion.  If you are going to be a guy that chases out of the zone then do it, and work on making good contact when doing it.  It is the swinging at a breaking pitch in dirt that you cannot hit, or swinging at a pitch like it is fastball when it is way out of the zone that becomes issues. 

1 hour ago, Karbo said:

sounds like he swings like Eddie Rosario, at anything close. He's young enough to figure it out if he's coachable. Just read the Athletic has our minor league talent rated in the bottom 1/2 (barely) in the league. That surprised me a bit after reading about the kids here.

Its a bad take.  Also after a full season of these kids playing and another draft,  I am firmly of the opinion that this will be a top 10 possibly top 5 Farm by the end of the year but I am assuming Lee is still not a full time member of the MLB yet and still a prospect.  

He seems like a very driven young man. As his development continues, hopefully the defensive skill set is grown as much as his power at the plate. This next crop of A and AA OF ballers is going to be exciting to watch in the next 2-3 years!  Could have 6-8 MLB debut with us or traded away. As long as we keep the cream of the crop. 

The description gives me Delmon Young flashbacks. If they can get him to be more selective they could have another Dan Ford. Looks like he has enough bat for CF and barely enough glove for LF.

44 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

It sounds like his future is likely 100% dependent on his bat. And that is very likely nearly 100% dependent on his plate discipline. I love guys that can get the barrel to the ball in all areas of the zone. But if you're not able to make pitchers throw it in the zone you're negating your own ability. All of his numbers are tough to really decipher because of his lack of discipline. Low BABIP isn't necessarily bad luck. It could be a result of a lot of really poor contact because you're swinging at everything and hitting 6 hoppers to infielders or soft flies to the OF. His concerning exit velo numbers discussed by other prospect evaluators could be a victim of the same thing.

He feels very much like Miranda, with maybe a little more pop in his bat. The Twins minor league staff were able to get Miranda to be more selective at AA and his performance took off. If they're able to do the same with Gonzalez he would likely have the same sort of results, and if there's a little more power in his bat than Miranda has it'd be very exciting. It sounds like he has the core, mostly unteachable bat to ball skills that big time hitters have, and that's a great place to be starting from. Now we'll see how well he's able to adjust his approach to really bring out the most in his bat to ball skills. Will be fun to follow him through the system. Or fun to see a big time starting pitcher come to the Twins in return for him (and others) if that's the route they go.

Almost completely agree with your take.  I do think he can play in the outfield with his elite arm even with a bit of poor foot speed.   

As to his bat and prospectus as a player,  a top 150 ranking is about right.  He has the ability to be one of the top hitters . . . if and its a bit if . . . he can develop more plate discipline.  He crushes anything in the zone. He can crush somethings out of the zone similar to Vlad Guerrero, but he also has lots of weak contact to add in.  

Its a great project for AA.   I think he will be much more developed and with more training will show much better than he did in last years cup of tea.  Now the question is can he be elite like he was in A ball?   That is the question.  

1 hour ago, MinnInPa said:

another K King ??..yeah we really need more of those

How is that a K King?

We need to get him and Emmanuel Rodriguez in a room to trade ideas on when to swing at pitches

Curious. Who among the many on/connected in any fashion with Twins Daily have seen Gonzalez play in a game or via television (milb.com)? I just wonder if it might be early to evaluate him. To be fair, I have not personally seen Walker Jenkins, Charlee Soto, Brandon Winokur, or Connor Prielipp play. Just wondered about the evaluations, not questioning really.

Gonzalez is certainly a wild card. I don't think even one of us has any idea what we have. I'm surprised he got on the Top 20 list at all.

Onto E Rod.

I think this is a little high for GG; I would have him below Raya and probably below Festa as well, for now. that's not really a knock on his talent, more of a recognition of theirs...but I do think the variance in opinions on this prospect is something that gives me some pause.

there are good evaluators who think he's pretty overrated and that his struggles at High A were reflective of who he is as a player, and that he matured physically more than most players at his age resulting in his success at low A. There are others who think he has a superior hit tool and that his contact skills at his age project well. MLB.com had him as a Top 100 prospect as did KLaw at the Athletic; I'm guessing FanGraphs will not.

It's going to be pretty interesting to see how he does this season. (I will say I'm not expecting him to be hitting with Rosario, whom I think will be playing in AA with E-Rod) Do his EVs improve with a little more experience in high A and some tweaks to his approach? Is he able to improve his plate discipline and lay off pitches outside of the zone? Or will he hack away not be able to be impactful by putting the bat on everything, whether it's a good pitch to hit or not?

He's #5.5 for me, though, not 3.5 if we're inserting him into the rankings. The upside is good, the talent is there but there are enough concerns to keep him below Raya & Festa for me.

12 minutes ago, Tibs said:

We need to get him and Emmanuel Rodriguez in a room to trade ideas on when to swing at pitches

I would agree if you put those 2 together into 1,  you would have potential hall of famer.  

The number that stuck out to me was 535 plate appearances.  He played a lot of baseball last year.  Expect there were a few, but don't recall any of the better Twins prospects playing that much.

Assume that ERod will be #3.  In a direct comparison, how do they compare?  Would be great if one of the two becomes a very good player for the Twins a couple years from now.