The Tyler Mahle Trade Was Still the Right Trade

Thanks Matthew.  Nice write up as usual .

Hmmm....giving up some rock solid prospects for a pitcher with "some" injury history who had an ERA "slightly" below what our then current crop of starting pitchers were already putting up..........no!

I'm with you on this. But it's a tough sell for some. Kind of an you can't win the lottery if you don't buy a ticket type of thing. Of course, I'd like to have Steer, CES and Hajjar available to the Twins. But I'd also rather have a heathy Mahle over Bundy, Archer, Hower Baily, J.A. Happ and so on. Unfortunately, the healthy part didn't work out...

Shoulder injuries many times lead to elbow injuries, "overcompensation". Trade will go down as a loss and you've gotta just move on.

Yeah, bummer on the final results, but the process was actually what Twins should have done....trade prospects for higher end pitching.  

Yup, it was a good "now for later" type of deal that a lot of the fanbase was clamoring for (I'm in a fantasy/strat league where I have the Twins prospects, so I'll still be cheering on Steer and CES for some time I hope); but pitchers are risky, and expensive.  Any chance of offering Mahle a 2 yr deal to let him re-establish value, or is he done here?

I definitely can understand the reasoning for the trade, but there's no doubt it didn't work out for us. I don't know that I'd be interested in re-signing him, unless it's one hell of a bargain. For as little as we've actually seen him pitch, it's almost like he was never even here. I think it's probably a good idea to just take the loss on all of it and move on. 

It wasn't a bad trade because of the injury. It wasn't a bad trade because of the prospects they gave up. It was a trade you don't make again because Tyler Mahle was like bitcoin, consistently predicted to explode in value but ultimately doomed to crash. The Twins obviously preferred him to Luis Castillo for some reason, since the only meaningful difference in the Castillo trade was an extra not very good minor league pitcher. 

The funny sidebar to all that is essentially the Reds traded their two best starters for four infield prospects. Noelvi Marte was the headliner for Castillo and his prospect ranking took a tumble, and looks to be the 3rd best overall prospect in the deal now.

Anyway, if the Twins had not been locked in on Mahle, they easily could have beat the Mariners to the punch with something for Castillo instead. It's likely that CES and Steer and Hajjar would have been on the move in that deal as well as probably Enlow. 

It's weird that they prized Mahle so much over the clearly better Castillo. Of course, there is the not zero chance that Sonny Grey played a part in that. Perhaps there was some scouting or other inside info that lead the team to buy into the bump on Mahle rather than the consistently good performance in Castillo's career. 

In the end, though the prospects surrendered aren't that big of a deal since CES and Steer would likely still be behind Miranda in the Twins depth charts. Hajjar already got dumped by the Reds, so no worries there. It's just too bad Mahle didn't get to play for the Twins in any meaningful way. 

Although I'd like to still have those prospects, the Twins currently have a logjam of player prospects as it is. It seems like you build up prospect capital in your farm system for two reasons; to replace players on your roster directly, and to use them to acquire other players. The Twins haven't done a lot of the latter over time, so I think this was a good try by the front-office.

And I'm glad we didn't get Montas.

7 minutes ago, arby58 said:

It will be interesting to see how the Chris Paddack situation plays out, given its similarity. 

They already signed Paddack to an extension. He won't be a free agent until after the 2025 season. 

"It does not matter, it's in the past."

I'm interested to see how Falvey approaches the trade deadline this year. Bold is the way to go even if it hurts sometimes.

Seeing as 3 of the 5 pitchers they have traded for recently had known Injury issues and all 3 went under the knife, NO!

The Mahle trade was a desperation move for a flawed team that they should have addressed the previous off season.

Getting Lopez this year before the season is the way to do things. The only in season pitching moves that should be made are for surprise bullpen arm that can be had for a reasonable price. A move will will need to make this year as Alcala and Moran have been a huge disappointment. 

Nice write up.  Everyone is entitled to their opinion. Those who favoured the trade had rational reasons behind that opinion. Those who did not also had good reasons to question the trade.

This trade didn’t work. That’s the outcome.  Some bets work out, some don’t. This one didn’t. Oh well. But like it or not, it goes on the FO’s ledger - right along with all the good moves and the other bad moves. If your job is to hold the FO accountable for its actions, then you must keep track of both the wins and losses.  But it’s water under the bridge now. Let’s beat the Cubs. 

I struggle with the logic that a trade that turned out disastrously for one team - a trade that no one would ever make knowing the outcome - was the "right move." No, that just means that the Twins couldn't accurately discern the likely outcomes. Mahle wasn't hit by a liner, or struck by lightning, or slipped on ice. He was injured almost immediately (like Dyson and Paddack) and totally ineffective for the team, while the prospects they gave up are flourishing. These are the deals that create seasonal WAR deficits and maybe even scrap championship runs. 

It was the wrong move, period. Will they survive it? Maybe. But this FO continues to bleed talent, while taking risks on health. That's unwise.

1 hour ago, miracleb said:

Hmmm....giving up some rock solid prospects for a pitcher with "some" injury history who had an ERA "slightly" below what our then current crop of starting pitchers were already putting up..........no!

I dunno. Steer doesn't look like he has that much of a ceiling to me. He's playing ok right now, but he's looking like a below average hitter and average defender, and would be behind Miranda, Julien, Lewis, Martin, and Lee in the infield prospect pecking order. Hajjar may or may not ever be anything; he's only got 52 innings of pro baseball so far, none above A ball and hasn't pitched this season because of injury. (and has already been dealt a second time) CES was the best prospect of the bunch, and might have a special bat...but as much as he's torn up AAA so far, it's only been 16 games (he's already missed almost 20 games this year?) and he's a butcher in the field.

It was a risk that didn't turn out, but at least the process made sense. This wasn't dumping our only catching prospect for a mediocre reliever or a massive overpay. It's a miss on the front office's ledger for sure, but at least it's one that was a calculated risk with upside to the play.

regarding the "we could have had Castillo for basically the same amount!" comment: No, we couldn't. Marte was a consensus top-20 prospect; we would have needed to put Royce Lewis in the deal to get Castillo and still have Hajjar and at least Steer or CES to get that deal done. None of the guys we had in the Mahle trade were near Marte's rating at the time, and Arroyo was well thought of as well (a consensus top 100 prospect going into this season) and Moore is pretty even with Hajjar.

This was an awful trade even before the injury issues. Mahle is average to below average in talent and did not significantly improve the team. They were too scared to go get Castillo so they panicked and overpaid for a number 4 starter on most teams.

They seem to trade for injury prone pitchers at the deadline in the hopes of getting lucky...maybe they need to rethink their approach.

1 hour ago, Gatormandd said:

Any chance of offering Mahle a 2 yr deal to let him re-establish value, or is he done here?

 

I'd offer him a 2 year deal with a team option. He's likely out for most or all of next season, so 2025 is really what the contract is for, with an option if he picks up where he left off in Cinncinnati. 

19 minutes ago, Minny505 said:

I'd offer him a 2 year deal with a team option. He's likely out for most or all of next season, so 2025 is really what the contract is for, with an option if he picks up where he left off in Cinncinnati. 

My thoughts exactly.  It can be similar to the Paddock deal.  If they extend him cheaply, this could still turn out to be an OK trade.  I do not see how he gets any kind of decent contract on the open market.  May as well stay here and build up his value.

6 hours ago, miracleb said:

Hmmm....giving up some rock solid prospects for a pitcher with "some" injury history who had an ERA "slightly" below what our then current crop of starting pitchers were already putting up..........no!

A good rule of thumb is, "Is this the kind of trade the Rays would do?"

Encarnacion-Strand is a decent prospect, but he can only play 1B so unless he is an elite hitter, it's not a big loss. He's not even ranked in the Reds top 10 prospects.

Steer is a decent hitter who can't really play defense and has already been relegated to 1B for the Reds. He's 25. His upside is meh. 

Hajjar is a too-old-for-his-level lottery ticket pitcher that the Reds already traded away as the PTBNL for a depth outfielder they traded for at the 2022 deadline. 

I'd want the Twins to pull the trigger on that trade 11 out of 10 times. That's how you become the Rays.

Well, we can give the FO a participation trophy if you'd like, but a bad trade is still a bad trade.  The FO let themselves cave to desperation.  The team had been gutted with injuries and was wobbling.  We weren't going to win.  Trading great prospects for a pitcher with known shoulder issues to try to make it to the playoffs just gave into desperation, a buy-high scenario that will justly be criticized for many years.  

I say this as a overall fan of this FO.  Overall, they've made good long-term decisions.  But, no one is perfect.  On trading floors you're considered good if you're right 40% of the time.  Baseball is just as difficult if not more so.  The FO just got way out over their skis on the Mahle trade, and we need to call it for what it was.  Learn from this mistake and move on.

If only there were some sort of "pitching pipeline" that developed pitchers from within the organization ... then maybe these risky trades wouldn't be necessary to begin with.  One can dream ...