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  • The Minnesota Twins Should Make a Godfather Trade Offer for Zac Gallen


    Matthew Taylor

    Much has been made about the Minnesota Twins trading for Frankie Montas, Tyler Mahle or Kyle Gibson, but there is one pitcher who is better than all of them and might be attainable. It would just take a godfather offer.

    Image courtesy of Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

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    The Minnesota Twins’ need for a starting pitcher is undeniable. The duo of Sonny Gray and Joe Ryan have been rock solid for the Twins in 2022, but Minnesota needs another top-line starter to help them secure a division title and throw out in a playoff game. Frankie Montas has been talked about extensively as the top trade target, but there is another starting pitcher on a losing team who would be an even better target, right handed pitcher, Zac Gallen.

    Zac Gallen is a 26-year-old ace starting pitcher for the Arizona Diamondbacks who is in his fourth season in the Majors. In his Major League career, Gallen boasts a 3.35 ERA with a 10.1 K/9 and an excellent K/BB ratio of 3.01. In his best season, 2020, Gallen posted a 2.75 ERA and finished ninth in the National League Cy Young voting.

    As a young starting pitcher, Zac Gallen also brings with him years of control. The Arizona right-hander is currently in the last year of his rookie contract, of $745,600 heading into his first year of arbitration. This means that a team who would acquire him at the trade deadline would get him for the remainder of the 2022 season, along with three additional years of team control at an affordable arbitration cost.

    So, why might the Arizona Diamondbacks be looking to trade their young, talented, and controllable starting pitcher? Currently, Arizona finds themselves in fourth place, eight games below .500, in the best division in the national league. The Diamondbacks have not made the playoffs since 2017 and do not look poised to do so this year. While Gallen looks to be an ace starting pitcher, it’s fair to wonder just when Arizona might be ready to compete, and if their best course of action would be to cash in on their right-hander now, while his value is at its all-time peak.

    According to a Jon Heyman article in the New York Post earlier this month, the Arizona Diamondbacks plan to keep Zac Gallen, “unless they get an offer they can’t refuse.” This time of the year it’s always hard to tell how much to believe in these reports versus how much is posturing by teams and/or agents. But taking the post from the New York Post at face value, what would it take for the Twins to offer the Diamondbacks an offer that they couldn’t refuse?

    In my mind, a great offer like that would involve a Major League player right now, along with future assets. Something along the lines of Trevor Larnach, Austin Martin, Josh Winder and Jordan Balazovic could start the conversation and get the Diamondbacks interested in a potential deal with the Twins.

    Another piece of the Zac Gallen conversation that might make Twins fans nervous, but might also lessen the cost of Zac Gallen in a trade is his potential injury concerns. Earlier this season, Gallen was placed on the injured list with a UCL strain. Of course, this might bring back some bad memories from Chris Paddack and his UCL issues prior to the Twins trading for him and ultimately losing him to Tommy John surgery. At the same time, though, the injury concerns for both the Diamondbacks as well as other suitors might just lower the cost to the point that his cost of acquisition would be lower than what you would expect from an ace with three and a half years of team control.

    The Twins should absolutely explore trades for the Frankie Montases and Tyler Mahles of the world, but if Zac Gallen is on the market, the Twins should put together their best offer to bring him to the Twin Cities.

    Would you be excited about Zac Gallen coming to the Minnesota Twins? Do his elbow issues concern you? Leave a comment below and start the conversation!

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    No - as soon as I saw Winder in your offer it was off the table - why send our Zac Gallen and a group of prospects for their Zac Gallen?  And then you throw in Balazovic.  This makes no sense to me.  Let's plug them into our Archer and Bundy spots for next year and move on. 

    o

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    No, no and no.  Looking ahead to 2023, the Twins have seven solid starting pitchers...Gray, Maeda, Paddack, Ryan, Ober, Smeltzer and Winder.  Yes, Paddack may not be ready until a month or two into the season, but they still have six solid starters.  And that doesn't include any of the younger guys working their way up through the minors.  And that doesn't include Archer, who loves it here and wouldn't be a surprise resigning by the Twins.

    Can that staff win a playoff series or two?  Certainly, especially with the lineup that should be even better next year, with or without Correa.

    So, no, no and no as I also agree with dberthia that the bullpen is what needs work.

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    10 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

    No - as soon as I saw Winder in your offer it was off the table - why send our Zac Gallen and a group of prospects for their Zac Gallen?  And then you throw in Balazovic.  This makes no sense to me.  Let's plug them into our Archer and Bundy spots for next year and move on. 

    o

    No kidding.   

    "The Minnesota Twins’ need for a starting pitcher is undeniable."    I am denying it so ......  Smeltzer, Winder and Archer have been great.   I have been waiting all year for a rotation of Ryan, Gray, Smeltzer, Archer and Winder.    Worst ERA in the group is Ryan at 3.2 which is lower than Gallen!!!!!     

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    Holy moly.

    I'll admit, you definitely accomplished the goal of giving them an "offer they can't refuse" with that proposal.

    Baseball Trade Values puts this offer as equivalent to the value of Shohei Ohtani.

    Also, I think Winder can be just as good as Gallen. Maybe even Balazovic, too.

    Not a move I would even considering making, let alone with that type of offer (and Gallen's arm scares me more than most).

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    MLB Trade Rumors has this as a MAJOR overpay by the Twins. According to the site Larnach himself is just about enough value to land Gallen. 

    Name Position MTV ($Ms)
    Balazovic RHP 10.6
    Larnach OF 46.4
    Martin OF 17.4
    Winder SP 17.6

     

    Name

    Position MTV ($Ms)
    Gallen SP 53.5
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    I like Gallen, I love his controllable years, don't like he isn't super efficient with his pitches, he runs his pitch count up to the 90's and 100's while only pitching 5 or 6 innings. So I don't see him as real upgrade to the starting pitcher staff, specifically if you have to give Winder up as well. I have three pitchers in the Twins organization that I would say are off limits, Ryan, WInder and Duran. Ober is close but I feel more comfortable trading him then the others.

    Go talk to Baltimore about Lopez and Tate and 2 and 3 years of control, offer Cavaco, Henriquez and Sands, and maybe another flyer on a guy in the low minors. Based on the simulator it is close.

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    Off season talks might make sense, but mid-season 'offers you can't refuse' are by definition inflated pricing, and are made for one reason only; to win in this season's playoffs. So UCL-strain pitchers need not apply.

    Winder looks to me like the real deal, if he and Ober can get/stay healthy, I'm much less interested in selling the farm for anything other than a #1-#2 starter. (Adding Winder and Ober to this staff in whatever role and/or adding another top starter and/or Maeda coming back will make the 'pen stronger.)

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    Yeah, you lost me when you suggested to include Winder and Larnach.  Frankly, with Maeda and Paddock coming back next year (at some point), and with Winder, Smeltzer, Ober & Ryan all viable starting candidates, plus other options like Balazovic who should be ready by then, I don't see the future need for a big-time starter. As for this season, they seem to be patching together the rotation far better than the bully. Pagan is on my sh*t list right now after yesterday's meltdown. I'd be happy to trade Martin for a good bullpen guy right now.

     

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    1 hour ago, Juza said:

     

    MLB Trade Rumors has this as a MAJOR overpay by the Twins. According to the site Larnach himself is just about enough value to land Gallen. 

    Name Position MTV ($Ms)
    Balazovic RHP 10.6
    Larnach OF 46.4
    Martin OF 17.4
    Winder SP 17.6

     

    Name

    Position MTV ($Ms)
    Gallen SP 53.5

    And this points out a problem using this type of data.  Winder is worth soo much more than 17.6, or the same as Martin.  Expect that the problem is the same for all very good young prospects who weren't the 'stud' prospect signing or top draft pick.  

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    I didn’t know people were so attached to Winder. I like him too, but I’m not sure his ceiling is very high. Same with balazovic who has shown literally nothing this year. I know his trade proposal seems steep, but you have to give to get. 

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    4 hours ago, Steve Lein said:

    Holy moly.

    I'll admit, you definitely accomplished the goal of giving them an "offer they can't refuse" with that proposal.

    Baseball Trade Values puts this offer as equivalent to the value of Shohei Ohtani.

     

    okay so we can get Ohtani???? LETS DO IT, 

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    I expect the Marlins will be dealing at the deadline, they have a huge glut of pitching and they're desperate for MLB ready outfielder talent because they want to compete now.

    While I'd be shocked if they dealt Alcantara, Lopez would be a valid target. Lopez's drop in velocity is a little red flag, but the results are still there.

    Larnach, Kepler and Celestino would all likely turn some heads down in Florida.

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    I'd not include Winder, but otherwise, I think everyone's over-rating the Twins prospects.

    Does the UCL situation scare me? I suppose mildly, but he's under control for 3.5 years. Supposing he does go under the knife at some point, 2 - 2.5 years of service is still pretty good for a pitcher of his caliber.

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    As has been pointed out the young man is TJ waiting to happen so no. If I'm going Godfather I'm talking to Oakland where you might get a bullpen arm in the process.

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    Quote

    Something along the lines of Trevor Larnach, Austin Martin, Josh Winder and Jordan Balazovic could start the conversation and get the Diamondbacks interested in a potential deal with the Twins.

    If you meant "Something along the lines of Trevor Larnach, Austin Martin, Josh Winder OR Jordan Balazovic could start the conversation and get the Diamondbacks interested in a potential deal with the Twins," I might entertain this offer.

    But, given the UCL, probably still not.

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    The trade machine is cool. But everyone gets so dead stuck on it. The model is actually fairly inaccurate for prospects. The Jose Berrios deal had him worth 42 mil , Twins got Martin (42 mil) and SWR (22 mil) .. There's a ton of other examples like this.

    Spencer Steer is worth more than 4 mil

    Emmanuel Rodriguez is worth more than 4 mil

    Ken Waldichuk is worth waayyy more than 9 mil

    Jo Adell is worth 6 mil while Jared Kelenic is worth 40 mil ,,, That makes zero sense.

    Far from the being exact.

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    Yeah, no more than two of the four guys you mentioned and a couple lower level prospects.  STARTING the conversation at those four guys isn't a GOD father offer it's a GRAND father offer, as in YOU KIDS GET OFF MY GRASS!!!

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