Could Simeon Woods Richardson Take Louie Varland's Spot in the Twins Starting Rotation?

Twins 20th-ranked prospect Simeon Woods Richardson made his second career start against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park Saturday. It's the same site where he made his MLB debut 561 days earlier. Having begun the season at Triple-A St. Paul as the organization's sixth starter and the first line of defense if one of the initial five starting pitchers were to get injured or perform poorly, Woods Richardson was promoted to start the second game of a doubleheader. The 23-year-old performed exceptionally, tossing 80 pitches while giving up two hits, one walk, and one earned run, striking out five and generating 20 called strikes and whiffs (CSW) over six innings pitched.

Woods Richardson overpowered Detroit's lineup, watching his four-seam fastball max out at 95.1 MPH and sit at 93 MPH, a 2.5-MPH increase from his one appearance in 2023. The ex-Mets and Blue Jays prospect threw his four-seam fastball 45 percent of the time while generating 10 CSW and averaging a respectable 2,210 revolutions per minute (RPM). Of the three appearances Woods Richardson has made in the majors, Saturday was by far his most encouraging performance, boosting fans' perception of the young righthander to an all-time high. By rule, he had to be demoted back to Triple-A St. Paul after the twin bill. Yet, his performance could have altered how the Twins front office will approach the starting rotation the rest of the season. 

Two times through the rotation, the quartet of Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, and Chris Paddack have generated a 6.24 ERA, 5.18 FIP, 4.24 xFIP, and 23.05% strikeout rate over 52 innings pitched. Those numbers are bloated due to Ober's implosive outing against the Kansas City Royals, wherein he gave up eight earned runs over 1 1/3 innings pitched, and the team's xFIP indicates that. Ober had the worst outing of the unit, but the worst pitcher two times through the rotation has seemingly been fifth starter Louie Varland. Over two starts, Varland has generated a 9.00 ERA, 7.36 FIP, 3.99 xFIP, and 22.2% strikeout rate. Varland was supposed to begin the season at Triple-A St. Paul, playing the role Woods Richardson currently inhabits, but presumed fifth starter Anthony DeSclafani undergoing forearm flexor tendon surgery bumped the 26-year-old St. Paul native into the club's Opening Day five-man rotation.

Though Varland earning the fifth spot in the starting rotation upon news of DeSclafani's unavailability was expected, it's hard to guess how long of a leash the team's decision-makers will have with the hard-throwing righty. Last season, Varland's most significant shortcomings were his inability to limit home runs and concerns over the effectiveness of his offspeed pitches. Although Varland has improved his secondary pitches, the long ball remains a problem, with most home runs surrendered coming off his four-seam fastball. Varland has struggled at suppressing home runs since beginning the 2022 minor-league season with the Double-A Wichita Wind Surge; he's surrendered 46 dingers in 311 innings pitched over the last two-plus years. With no improvement in sight on that front, his performance over two starts to begin the season is particularly concerning and could be a driving force in potentially losing his spot in the starting rotation.

Beyond his inability to limit home runs remaining a thorn in the 15th-round pick's side, a new problem has arisen this season. Over 45 batters faced, Varland's walk rate has jumped from 6.6% over his 10 games as a starter last season to 11.1% in 2024. Varland has never struggled with command at any level, so his newfound inability to suppress free passes is particularly concerning. The primary cause for his concerning command issues could be his trying to implement his new and refined pitches--most notably his curveball and cutter--into his repertoire. Still, while tinkering with pitches is expected (especially early in the season), adding command and location issues to concerns over the long ball is a worst-case scenario for the hard-tossing hurler.

With Varland's first two starts coming against two above-average National League teams in the Milwaukee Brewers and Los Angeles Dodgers, there is reason to suspect he could turn his luck around against lesser opponents. Unfortunately, he won't get that opportunity this week, as his next start is Monday against the formidable Baltimore Orioles. Varland still merits an extended opportunity to prove that he can remain a productive member of the Twins starting rotation. However, if the same issues that thwarted his hopes of staying in the Twins' starting rotation in 2023 remain, they could yet again force him to transition into a relief role, as he did toward the end of last season. If this scenario plays out and Woods Richardson can build off his impressive start against the Tigers by performing well at Triple-A St. Paul for the next few weeks, we could see the former consensus Top 100 prospect get his first extended opportunity in MLB.