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  • Buxton's Uncertainty Creates a Center Field Conundrum

    Theodore Tollefson

    By Theodore Tollefson

    No position has more question marks around it for the Twins than center field. Byron Buxton has undergone a surgical knee repair once more, but leaving his CF outlook hazier than ever. Even if he does return, how long can he keep playing out there? 

    Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports

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    Michael A. Taylor made himself a standout for the Twins in Buxton’s absence this season. In the scenario that he doesn’t re-sign, the internal organizational options don’t pan out as well as having a semi-healthy Buxton or a returning Taylor. 

    Willi Castro proved himself useful as a backup and left-handed hitting platoon in center with Taylor. But he would be very stretched as a starter and the Twins value his versatility.

    Then there’s Austin Martin. Martin ended the season strong with the St. Paul Saints and has set himself up well to make his MLB debut in 2024. But he’s still a player who doesn’t need to be rushed and still has elements of his game to iron out. It’s hard to see him arriving before Memorial Day, at least as a full-time option, unless injuries force the front office’s hand. 

    Another option is Nick Gordon, who missed the majority of the 2023 season with a broken tibia. While Gordon looks to be healthy, his future with the organization is in question as Castro has overtaken him in the pecking order as the team’s super-utility man. Gordon is arbitration eligible and out of options, which doesn't help his case.

    Royce Lewis may be another option in center this upcoming season too. However, for now the Twins and Lewis both seem to be opposed to a return to the outfield, after his last start in center ended with a torn ACL.

    While he did remain healthy with his knees upon his return on Memorial Day this season, Lewis still experienced some leg issues during the season, including a hamstring strain that forced him to finish on the IL. There are many who still believe his best-fit position is center field, but it’s possible Lewis remains on the infield to ensure longevity in playing time versus risking another injury that puts him out for a long while. 

    Removing Lewis as an option in center, that leaves Castro as the only man currently on the Twins' outfield depth chart that can hit from the right side of the plate. And the last thing the Twins outfield needs is another left-handed hitter, which makes a reunion with Taylor, or a signing like Kevin Kiermaier or Harrison Bader, the best outfield options in free agency.

    If payroll limitations price these higher-end free agents out of  Minnesota's range, there are some lower-tier right-handed hitting center fielders that can work as a one-year deal, platoon options alongside Castro, Martin, or Lewis. 

    Kevin Pillar, Jake Marisnick, and even former Twin Aaron Hicks are all suitable fallback options if Taylor signs elsewhere. 

    Pillar played in 81 games with the Braves this last season. The Braves used him more frequently as a defensive option than for his offense, as he slashed .228/.248/.416 in 206 plate appearances. Pillar would remain that defensive-first, bat-second option to keep things afloat until the Twins line up their primary center fielder.

    Marisnick played less than Pillar, showing up in 46 games between the White Sox, Tigers, and Dodgers this year. Marisnick had a .228/.248/.416 triple slash in 83 plate appearances. The limited playing time and injuries this season do show a decline in his performance, but Marisnick will only be 33 and has shown the ability to mash lefties.

    Speaking of players who showed they still have something left in the tank, former Twin Aaron Hicks. After being released by the Yankees on May 26th, Hicks revitalized his career with the Orioles on May 30th. Hicks played in only 65 of the remaining 106 games on the season but he had his best stretch of games at the plate since 2018.

    Hicks posted an .806 OPS in 236 plate appearances with the Birds. The switch-hitter has always been more effective swinging from the right side, and that was definitely true in 2023. He may not be the player he once was, but he’s likely the best fallback of this group if the Twins miss out on the top CF names in free agency. It bears noting that Hicks rarely played center down the stretch in Baltimore, more often starting in the outfield corners.

    The offseason is still young and the options in centerfield outside of Buxton are still plentiful. However, with the Twins likely to move slow and facing payroll constraints, it behooves us to become familiar with the lower tier of free agents.

    Minnesota-born and raised, Theodore is a full-time multimedia journalist and news producer with KAAL-TV (ABC affiliate) in Rochester, Minnesota. He uses his free time to write about the Twins for TD to give an old school perspective from a younger generation.
    Follow Theodore Tollefson on Twitter: TheodoreTollef1

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    jorgenswest

    jorgenswest 7,253

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    They already have Castro and Gordon whose projections are similar or better than the three free agents. Gordon’s posted a 0 RAA in CF in 2022 and Castro a -1 last year but that is similar to Hicks who still struggles against right handed pitching.

    The Twins would be best off pooling their free agent resources into one spot. If that is CF then they need to go bigger here. I would stick with these 3 and pool the dollars for a starting pitcher.

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    mikelink45

    mikelink45 12,781

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    Get Taylor back - we know him, have Martin spell him and start moving towards a more permanent solution.  I am sorry to say I no longer hope for Buxton in center.  It was exciting, but it is time to move on no matter what that contract says.

    I am not interested in the last options, they are not better than Castro and Gordon.  Hicks had one part of a season where he shined, but he has multiple seasons where he has not. 

    The only option that I really like is Kiermaier. 

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    JD-TWINS

    JD-TWINS 1,879

  • Silver Caretaker

    • Posted

    Buxton in CF as much as possible - 60 games best case Zero games worst case.

    Castro played 125 games in ‘23……we don’t NEED flexibility in his defense with Wallner established in LF & with Lewis at 3B about 80% of the time. No problem with him in CF as much as necessary - even 120 games.

    Keep Farmer for flexibility & depth at all 3 IF spots & trade Polanco for prospects or with a couple guys for some pitching (doubtful). Castro starts v. LH pitching - Gordon can play CF as well (would have played 80-90 games in ‘23 if not hurt).

    Martin had a nice Fall Ball season in ‘22 ……after coming back from arm injury this year he finished strong in St Paul. If he can back up his last 300 AB’s with more of the same he’s more than viable to bring up by mid-June.

    Buxton would be great but we have CF covered internally if he doesn’t play another game out there.

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    rv78

    rv78 1,971

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    Go back to last year and insert comments from there. The Buxton articles have become redundant. I really wish he'd just go away. How many World Series would've the Twins won if Kirby Puckett would have been injured as much as Buxton? ZERO.

    Buck may be able to play half of the games in a season and if he can't play defense he's a DH making him a half-of-the-time player even when he plays a game. So, for 1/4 of the production of a full-time player thay are paying him over $15M. That would equate to paying a full-time player $60M. I guess the Twins already have their Ohtani money spent.

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    Stew

    Stew 81

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    Why can't we get Taylor back? He could accept probably about 8 to 10 million. I've heard talk of kiermier being  someone we are looking at. He will cost between 13 to 16 million. They are both equal fielders in my mind. Taylor has more power and more stolen bases. But less avg. And obp. The other guys mentioned are a step back in defense. We had a good formula great pitching, defense. We now need  two good bats to make a real run at it.

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    Jocko87

    Jocko87 2,295

  • Gold Caretaker

    • Posted

    6 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

    What has been reported regarding Buxton's prognosis?  Is there any reason to believe that the most recent surgery has a reasonable chance of allowing him to play CF?  I am looking for some hope to cling to here.

    I do have some hope as to my non-medical eye it feels like they are taking a 5 year approach vs a 5 month one. They knew the plia thing had to go in August. I remember questioning the approach with Polo out of spring training. I thought without pointing to some sort of cut and splice procedure that they were just waiting. As I've thought about it, they were taking a more natural healing approach of therapy and rest that while it takes longer is much more effective for some injuries. As far as I know Polo didn't have any issues with the knee, just the hamstring. Draw hope from a more minimalist approach of long term healing. They could have shot him up all year long but it would not be a long term solution. I may be talking out my schfincter but it's something to hope on. Hope it works for you.

    As for center field, we do have to deal with the reality of the situation and a solid range of options are needed. One that isn't mentioned in the article that I think needs serious consideration is Kepler.

    I do not care that the rumor is that he doesn't want to. No telling if any of that is true anyway. The case to be made to Max is that entering free agency as a solid centerfielder, outstanding right fielder with 30 HR pop at 31 is a great place to be. Showing he can play center might make him $30 million in free agency.

    Will he be Kiermiaer out there? No. Is he a very similar player to Kiermiaer? Yup. Does it save $10m? Yup. Does it facilitate a healthy Buxton? Yup. Can he be backfilled in right? Yup. Can we still work Martin in? Yup.

    My salary calculator thing reflected bringing Corbin Burnes and Joey Wiemers in and this works with that too.

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    Reptevia

    Reptevia 305

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    STOP with the “If Buxton can play X number of games” nonsense. If Buxton can play…you can stop right there. He couldn’t play last year. I will be happily surprised if he can ever play again, but if it’s like last year, I’d rather see a rookie. 

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    Major League Ready

    Major League Ready 7,444

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    34 minutes ago, Reptevia said:

    STOP with the “If Buxton can play X number of games” nonsense. If Buxton can play…you can stop right there. He couldn’t play last year. I will be happily surprised if he can ever play again, but if it’s like last year, I’d rather see a rookie. 

    He couldn't do it last year is not exactly a great basis for the certainty you profess.  It's not exactly unheard of for players to come back from injury.  So, unless you are an orthopedic specialist, you are guessing like the rest of us.

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    Dave Lemke

    Dave Lemke 49

  • Silver Caretaker

    • Posted

    51 minutes ago, Stew said:

    Why can't we get Taylor back? He could accept probably about 8 to 10 million. I've heard talk of kiermier being  someone we are looking at. He will cost between 13 to 16 million. They are both equal fielders in my mind. Taylor has more power and more stolen bases. But less avg. And obp. The other guys mentioned are a step back in defense. We had a good formula great pitching, defense. We now need  two good bats to make a real run at it.

    At this moment we have Jeffers and Vazquez at catcher. Kirilloff, Julien,Correa and Lewis around the infield. With Polanco, hopefully Miranda, possibly Lee at some point. Outfield has Kepler, hopefully Buxton at least as Dh, Wallner and Larnach. Also possibly Martin. Where are you going to put these 2 hitters that we supposedly need? I am of the opinion that we need to replace Gray first. Hopefully bringing him back on a 2 or 3 year deal. Beyond that I believe filling in at the edges is what needs to happen this winter. 

    First thing to figure out is the broadcast revenue. Then possibly a reliever or two. Also making a decision on Farmer. Most of what is needed is already here hopefully.

    A return to form from Buxton and Correa. A bounceback from Miranda. Continued improvement from some combination of Julien, Lewis, Wallner, Lee, Martin, E-Rod, Rosario, Funderburk and more should help more than adding to payroll. 

    My opinion FWIW!

     

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    TwinkieFan4life

    TwinkieFan4life 216

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    49 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

    He couldn't do it last year is not exactly a great basis for the certainty you profess.  It's not exactly unheard of for players to come back from injury.  So, unless you are an orthopedic specialist, you are guessing like the rest of us.

    You can look at his history over multiple seasons.  You can look at the fact that he has been trying, unsuccessfully, to recover from this knee injury for 2 years.  You can look at the fact that he is entering his 30's, a time when healthy center fielders begin to decline.

    I am not an orthopedic surgeon, but I am hoping the Twins plan based on the assumption that Buxton won't be available in center.  If he is then it's a bonus.  You just have to plan as if he isn't on the team.  You just can't count on him.

     

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    PatPfund

    PatPfund 808

  • Silver Caretaker

    • Posted

    The Twins should indeed wait, and focus their resources on pitching. I don't see any a real path to Farmer being back (if you are cutting payroll, $6-7 mill for a backup?), plus he would be a good trade chip (SS is thin this offseason). That means you keep Castro free to spell Correa, Lewis, and add a RH bat at times to the OF. Tell Martin to prep for CF (if we have Castro, we don't need another super-utility), and Martin adds another patient bat. If he plays well in the spring take him north. Dude is 25, he was a 5th overall pick, so he isn't being rushed, and frankly I'm freakin' tired of the Twins signing has-beens who just block real prospects (the way Gallo did last year).

    If Taylor's market cheapens (which it might do) sign him as insurance/mentor/4th OF. If Martin crashes or needs more seasoning, Keirsey and Helman could be other (cheaper, better than retread) options. Byron's days as a main CF are probably done; I just hope he can figure out a way to stay playable even in a reduced role, because last year was brutal after the first 5-6 weeks. OFs are also much easier to get in-season than pitching (Bader was available for a waiver claim), so there are options if it isn't Martin right away.

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    terrydactyls

    terrydactyls 4,295

  • Gold Caretaker

    • Posted

    You advocate adding any of three guys, all of whom probably would hit under .240.  And then dismiss Martin saying that he "still has elements to iron out".  What are these elements?  And can they not be worked on in the majors?  Bring the guy up and use any available money to go after Yamamoto.  The Twins need a good arm.

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    D.C Twins

    D.C Twins 3,141

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    The only conundrum is why people still think there is still uncertainty around Buxton.

    His past provides clear certainty that he cannot be relied upon to be a full time CF and his bat is not good enough to justify being a permanent DH.

    Just because it is horrible for Buck, the team, and the fans does not mean it isn't true 

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    mikelink45

    mikelink45 12,781

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    12 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

    He couldn't do it last year is not exactly a great basis for the certainty you profess.  It's not exactly unheard of for players to come back from injury.  So, unless you are an orthopedic specialist, you are guessing like the rest of us.

    We are all guessing, but with Buxton it is not just last year.  This is an ongoing saga. In 9 years he was averaged 67.75 games a year - including his amazing 140 game season in 2017.   Over those 9 years he has averaged 60.22 games in CF - not even a half time CF.  

    Remove the 140 game year and his average drops to 34.66 games per year.  2024 will be seven years since he was our real CFer. 

    I do not dislike Byron, I appreciate his skills, but some bodies do not hold up as well as others (that includes mine). 

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    Major League Ready

    Major League Ready 7,444

  • Verified Member

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    5 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

    We are all guessing, but with Buxton it is not just last year.  This is an ongoing saga. In 9 years he was averaged 67.75 games a year - including his amazing 140 game season in 2017.   Over those 9 years he has averaged 60.22 games in CF - not even a half time CF.  

    Remove the 140 game year and his average drops to 34.66 games per year.  2024 will be seven years since he was our real CFer. 

    I do not dislike Byron, I appreciate his skills, but some bodies do not hold up as well as others (that includes mine). 

    No doubt he has been injury prone but right now but the issue at hand is not if he will get injured.  He is already injured and his ability to return is very specific to his knee.  Any future contribution from Buxton right now is dependent upon this issue with his knee(s) being resolved.  We should worry about him being injury prone if he makes it back but right now we should be hoping we get to a position where we are questioning if he can remain healthy.  That would be a good thing at this point.

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    Johnny Ringo

    Johnny Ringo 399

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    Given his injury history, you have to plan that Buck will play zero games for you in CF next year. He will be 30 in 2024 and as such, he is starting to age out of the position naturally anyway.

    So, you need both a short and long-term solution there. Michael A fills half of that bill. He had a 1.8 WAR last year. With the budget realities and the Buxton realities, I would think hard about internal candidates (Martin, et al) that you can plug in for several years and view any Buxton contribution as completely serendipitous.   

     

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    saviking

    saviking 634

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    20 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

    Get Taylor back - we know him, have Martin spell him and start moving towards a more permanent solution.  I am sorry to say I no longer hope for Buxton in center.  It was exciting, but it is time to move on no matter what that contract says.

    I am not interested in the last options, they are not better than Castro and Gordon.  Hicks had one part of a season where he shined, but he has multiple seasons where he has not. 

    The only option that I really like is Kiermaier. 

    You are right. Taylor is the safest option without breaking the bat. His defense made our pitching staff look pretty good .. But if Lewis wasn't injury prone, he would be my first option by far.

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    Finlander

    Finlander 128

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    Kepler should be made aware that he is needed in CF now. We have RF depth. If he is not amenable to helping the team in that CF role, then he should be on the trading block now. Whatever is decided, he'd likely be moved by the trade deadline this summer to make room for Martin. That solution, to me, makes more sense than asking a backup to become a regular, or to overpay for a weak hitting FA CF instead of buying a good arm or two. There is also enough team depth at infield, corner OF, and middling upside pitching to look into trading for the CF fix.

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    SteveLV

    SteveLV 367

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    The headline answers the question.

    Nothing new here.  Love Buxton, but he is ALWAYS hurt. 

    It cripples roster construction by taking up a roster spot, tying up salary, blocking the DH slot, and requiring contingencies for CF.

    Wonder if anyone would take a gamble on that contract if they put him on waivers?????

    Hope and pray, I guess.  I sure would like to know if they were able to secure insurance on his contract. Not my money, but if they have to eat that thing they will not spend on other needs to be sure.....

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    ashbury

    ashbury 53,496

  • Gold Caretaker

    • Posted

    2 hours ago, SteveLV said:

    Wonder if anyone would take a gamble on that contract if they put him on waivers?????

    Unless the contract was written in some exceptional way, the no-trade clause includes having another team claim him on waivers.  The clause is there to protect the player's interest, not simply to hamstring the team in certain ways but leave loopholes for others.

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    Jim wyllie

    Jim wyllie 14

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    They need to trade for Chaz Mccormick, he's reasonably priced and hits right handed.   He adds lineup depth and allows for Buxton to be moved to right or left field immediately 

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    RpR

    RpR 1,548

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    4 hours ago, Finlander said:

    Kepler should be made aware that he is needed in CF now. We have RF depth. If he is not amenable to helping the team in that CF role, then he should be on the trading block now. Whatever is decided, he'd likely be moved by the trade deadline this summer to make room for Martin. That solution, to me, makes more sense than asking a backup to become a regular, or to overpay for a weak hitting FA CF instead of buying a good arm or two. There is also enough team depth at infield, corner OF, and middling upside pitching to look into trading for the CF fix.

    Check the stats. ; Kepler is not the good outfielder in Center he is in Right Field, which is why he rarely has played there.

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    RpR

    RpR 1,548

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    1 hour ago, Jim wyllie said:

    They need to trade for Chaz Mccormick, he's reasonably priced and hits right handed.   He adds lineup depth and allows for Buxton to be moved to right or left field immediately 

    Curious how would Right Field would be less harmful that Center Field.

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