A Hypothetical Twins Trade for Luis Castillo from The Athletic

Law gave it a "Maybe?" response, and listed his concerns about Winder not sticking as a starter so the package would actually be too light.

The bigger thing I got from that article is that other teams can put together far better packages than the Twins without touching their #1 prospects (although the Padres suggestion included Hassell). The Twins don't have great buying power in the arms race of the next 2 weeks.

I agree, I think Winder is going to be pretty important this year and beyond. I think dealing from the Kirilloff/Miranda/Winder/Ober group diminishes the gains you'd get from the trade.

17 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I wonder what Keith doesn't like about Winder? I mean, if he's not a starter, then I do this deal for sure. 

How hard guys have hit his fastball and the shape of his off speed were the concerns he listed.

And for reference he had Winder ranked 8th in the system coming into the year and said he'd have been in his top 100 were it not for his injury last year. So his concerns are based on what he's seen at the major league level this season.

Do they think anyone from the Povich, Prielipp, Hajjar, Balazovic, Canterino, Varland, Henriquez, et al group of prospects will be ready by 2024? Do they think SWR or Winder are significantly better than any of those guys? I'd say they better have at least 1 of those arms ready by 2024 whether they keep Winder and SWR or not, and I don't think SWR or Winder are any more likely than that grouping to be front of the rotation arms. Unless they have a reason to believe Castillo is any more likely to get injured than any other pitcher or his performance will drop off dramatically in the next year and a half I do that trade.

Give me Castillo, Ryan, Gray for the rest of this year and add Maeda back next year all on below market deals and I can build a pretty competitive rotation.

With Balazovic's, Sands' and Canterino's struggles, I just think Winder has to stay. There is just NO other depth and both Bundy and Smeltzer are on the brink of collapse. Probably past the brink actually. Archer and his short starts shouldn't be in the rotation with state of the bullpen and this trade doesn't help the relief corp.

Castillo and Mahle sound like great ideas to me, but Winder is the ONLY back up plan at the moment, and from my perspective, he should currently be the #3 starter. 

1 minute ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

i agree except I would be willing to deal Ober in a deal for a starting pitcher. To me, the other 3 would only go in a spectacular deal for us (not happening). 

I'd keep Ober too if there were other options, but I'd rather give up Ober than Winder. He's not helping the team right now as it is.

2 minutes ago, PatPfund said:

At least it's ballpark (if Castillo is healthy). Though I'd look for a prospect position player to move instead of Winder, because the "pitching pipeline" has an air bubble in it (with very dubious Saints starting prospects not name Winder), and your Gray/Castillo 1 and 2 could be gone after next year.

Unless the Reds just aren't interested, I'd probably rather include Larnach, who likely is more valuable than any of the other pieces listed.

19 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Is Larnach more valuable than Steer? I'm not sure. Larnach's bat has a higher floor but Steer is way more versatile defensively.

I think it really depends where a team is in the competitive cycle. In the case of the Reds, I might lean Steer for the upside play further down the road over Larnach's immediate impact.

The trade values site has Larnach's value 2x that of Steer.

Obviously that should be taken with a grain of salt, but when it comes to real life trades, it does always seem that MLB teams value players who have demonstrated any measure of MLB success way more than the fans do. The fans always like the unsullied prospects more.

2 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Oh, I agree that fans overrate prospects, I'm just factoring in the timeline of the Reds and questioning whether they want a 2022 impact player or a 2024 impact player. They very well may prefer the latter, especially given Steer's defensive flexibility.

I don't know, Larnach still has five years of control. I think when you get to that range, the 'can he hit at the MLB level' evaluation probably factors in more.

3 minutes ago, RpR said:

At no time were Sano's numbers at first as bad as Miranda's are now.

Then I guess it's a good thing Miranda is a long term 3B and not 1B. He's got 1 OAA at 3B compared to -2 at 1B. Glad he's targeted to play 3B.

8 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

True. What I find most appealing about Steer is the fact that he'll probably hit and can do it at several positions. I'm sure if you put an OF glove in his hand, he'd be just fine out there, too (though obviously would need to hit more to be an asset there).

I don't disagree with you on Steer at all. He's not untouchable, but he's close. Most definitely on my very short list of prospects I don't want to part with. I value him more than Larnach so I'd be more than happy to swap him out. But that goes back to me being a fan who values prospects more than I should and getting bored with MLB capable players before I should.