Mick Abel’s Potential Is No Longer Enough

[Sam Caulder]

Throwing around the term “upside” and playing the “what if?” game is always fun for a little while. But at some point, you actually need to see that upside turn into production. And 2027 feels like the year that needs to happen for Twins right-hander Mick Abel.

Abel was a force to be reckoned with during 2026 spring training, which ultimately led to him earning a spot in the big league rotation to start the year. After pitching his way onto the Opening Day roster, however, things got off to a pretty rough start. He struggled mightily in his first two outings, allowing nine earned runs across just 7 1/3 innings. That certainly wasn’t the introduction the Twins were hoping for, but something clicked after those first two starts.

Mick Abel, K'ing the Side in the 2nd. https://t.co/b3ijkMHeFN

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 15, 2026

He rattled off 13 scoreless innings across his next two outings, striking out 16 while walking just three. Suddenly, the pitcher who had shown so much promise during spring training was beginning to look like the potential frontline starter the Twins hoped they had acquired.

Unfortunately, that turned out to be the last we’d see of Abel in 2026. He landed on the injured list with elbow inflammation in mid-April before suffering a setback with discomfort in his elbow and triceps during a bullpen session. Abel ultimately underwent microscopic elbow surgery in July, bringing a premature end to what had been a very promising start to his first season with the Twins.

We saw the upside. We saw the answer to the “what if?” question. Now, the Twins need to see the sustained production.

There are obviously plenty of legitimate reasons for the Twins to remain excited about what he can become, but eventually, the flashes need to turn into something more substantial. The Twins’ starting rotation entering the 2027 season figures to be a strong point of the roster, too, which could make Abel’s path to a regular spot a little more complicated. Joe Ryan, barring a trade this winter, should headline the group, while Pablo López should be back to full health and provide a quality arm toward the top of the rotation. We also saw a huge breakout from Taj Bradley in 2026, while Connor Prielipp delivered a solid rookie season. And it doesn’t even end there.

Trade deadline acquisition Dean Kremer finished with a 3.48 ERA in Minnesota over the final two months of the season, giving the Twins another legitimate option for the rotation heading into next year. Bailey Ober could remain in the mix, as well, while there’s no telling what 2027 has in store for guys like Zebby Matthews and Kendry Rojas. Then there’s the possibility that the Twins add another starter through free agency or a trade this winter. Abel won’t just be handed a rotation spot simply because of what he showed in 2026. There will be plenty of competition, and that could be a good thing for a pitcher entering such an important season.

If Abel wants to prove he can be a big league starter, the clock is ticking. 2027 seems like a pivotal year for him, but the good news is that the traits are there. In what was, admittedly, a very small sample, Abel flashed the traits of a potential frontline arm. His whiff, chase and strikeout rates were all pretty comfortably above league average, and his four-seam fastball was actually his biggest whiff pitch. That’s a pretty strong foundation to work from.

He doesn’t need to suddenly reinvent himself this offseason. Instead, the goal should be continuing to refine the rest of his arsenal and figuring out how to consistently turn those raw ingredients into outs. If he can keep refining his secondary pitches and build off what he showed during those two dominant outings, there’s reason to believe he can take another significant step forward in 2027.

Obviously, staying healthy is a different question entirely. There’s no way around the fact that Abel’s elbow surgery adds another layer of uncertainty to his outlook. The Twins will have to be mindful of his workload as he works his way back, and his ability to stay on the mound will ultimately determine just how much he can contribute next season. But the stuff is there. He showed enough during spring training and his brief time in the majors to make it clear why the Twins are still intrigued by his potential.

At the same time, potential can only carry a player so far. A lot can, and probably will, change over the next six or so months between now and the start of the season. Injuries and offseason moves will happen, and those developments will undoubtedly impact how the Twins’ starting rotation looks on Opening Day.

There’s no question Abel can make a difference for this team. He has the stuff to be a legitimate big league starter, and if everything clicks, he could eventually become much more than that. But he’ll enter 2027 with plenty of question marks surrounding him. Next season is about turning those flashes into something the Twins can count on. The upside has never really been the question. Now, it’s time to see what that upside actually looks like over the course of a full season.

Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images

View full article

[thelanges5]

Bradley is the only proven pitcher with a contract after 2027. I’d like to see them sign someone like Peralta this offseason. They need that and some of the young guys to take a step forward - Abel, Prielipp, Rojas, Matthews. Not much depth in the minors after that. 

[old nurse]

Yup, it would sure be nice if pitchers could just come up from the minors and pitch like aces day1 and never had a bad outing 

[rdehring]

I have to believe that the FO knows they have at a minimum, one too many starters heading into the season.  None of us has any idea which starter should or will be traded.  Heck, I expect the Twins don't know as who goes will in large part be determined on what other GM's are willing to trade for pitcher X.

The good news is that one of their starters should be leaving and should bring back something of value to fill another of their needs.  Is it too much to ask that Zoll puts together a package that brings back a top player to fill one of their needs?  Hopefully, this can be completed by the end of the month.  Please?

As far as Abel is concerned, add me to the list of those who are excited about what he can be for the Twins over the next half dozen years.

[SE23]

Ryan, Larnach and Lewis to the A's for Langeliers.

[nova_twins]

3 minutes ago, SE23 said:

Ryan, Larnach and Lewis to the A's for Langeliers.

A's would die laughing if they heard this

[SE23]

1 minute ago, nova_twins said:

A's would die laughing if they heard this

What if we throw in Ober? And Kreidler?

[SE23]

Just now, SE23 said:

What if we throw in Ober? And Kreidler?

And Martin.

[LambchoP]

Twins need an influx of young starting pitching. Most of our vets are gone after this year....

[old nurse]

22 minutes ago, SE23 said:

And Martin.

Wallner, too. Maybe even Gonzales. 

[bean5302]

The good 'ol "here's a pile of our trash, give me a single premium value player in exchange" proposal.

I've seen the manipulative 3.48 ERA Dean Kremer connections from TD writers quite a bit. He's not that good, and he's not going to be that good. By the way, Kremer's also not under team control beyond next year. Kremer's K rate, BB rate, exit velocity, barrel rate, hard hit rate were all equal or worse than his time in Baltimore. Any expectation for Kremer to produce better than a 4.25 ERA feels very suspect. He's entering his age 31 season, no options, plenty of opportunity, declining velocity and a career 4.31 ERA, 4.52 xERA, 4.40 FIP, 4.42 xFIP, 4.41 SIERA make it pretty clear who Kremer is almost certainly going to be going forward. He's going to be a fringe back end starter. One step back, and he's at the right age to have that step back, and nobody actually wants Kremer in the rotation.

Dean Kremer has no "upside" and no "potential" left. Abel has multiple options so there's no need for these kinds of odd man out discussions. The Twins are going to have rotation injuries, and Abel will have opportunities. Abel needs to work on his mechanics and control. Abel's potentially got top of the rotation stuff. Better than Joe Ryan. Better than Pablo Lopez.

The conversation should be around two questionable 2027 rotation arms and choosing between them. Bailey Ober or Dean Kremer. 

[DataNerd]

2 hours ago, thelanges5 said:

Bradley is the only proven pitcher with a contract after 2027. I’d like to see them sign someone like Peralta this offseason. They need that and some of the young guys to take a step forward - Abel, Prielipp, Rojas, Matthews. Not much depth in the minors after that. 

If we are wanting the younger guys to step up, the first step probably isn't signing another guy who will take away reps.  We have a major SP problem next year, not this year, so lets address it in FA next year, not this year.

[ashbury]

My gosh, the guy turned 25 last August and still hasn't been invited to a Hall of Fame induction weekend.  Flush him.

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

The good 'ol "here's a pile of our trash, give me a single premium value player in exchange" proposal.

I've seen the manipulative 3.48 ERA Dean Kremer connections from TD writers quite a bit. He's not that good, and he's not going to be that good. By the way, Kremer's also not under team control beyond next year. Kremer's K rate, BB rate, exit velocity, barrel rate, hard hit rate were all equal or worse than his time in Baltimore. Any expectation for Kremer to produce better than a 4.25 ERA feels very suspect. He's entering his age 31 season, no options, plenty of opportunity, declining velocity and a career 4.31 ERA, 4.52 xERA, 4.40 FIP, 4.42 xFIP, 4.41 SIERA make it pretty clear who Kremer is almost certainly going to be going forward. He's going to be a fringe back end starter. One step back, and he's at the right age to have that step back, and nobody actually wants Kremer in the rotation.

Dean Kremer has no "upside" and no "potential" left. Abel has multiple options so there's no need for these kinds of odd man out discussions. The Twins are going to have rotation injuries, and Abel will have opportunities. Abel needs to work on his mechanics and control. Abel's potentially got top of the rotation stuff. Better than Joe Ryan. Better than Pablo Lopez.

The conversation should be around two questionable 2027 rotation arms and choosing between them. Bailey Ober or Dean Kremer. 

Keep Kremer. Bailey goodbye.  

[Nashvilletwin]

These doom and gloom troll headlines on these articles are nauseating. 

Abel is 25.  He’s got plenty of time to build himself into a reliable member of our rotation whether by ‘28 or ‘29.  He has #2 or #3 upside and if he stays healthy a back end guy most certainly at the worst.

Ober is probably gone and Kremer after this season. Abel has way more upside than those two.

Just let the kid get healthy and pitch and improve. 

[nova_twins]

What does it even mean to not "be enough"? Enough for what?

Utter click bait trash. Brutally bad throughout. 

[HerbieFan]

Obviously.  And I'm sure Mick would agree.

[Linus]

I would think there would be a bunch of guys much higher on the “prove it” list than Abel. 

[Andy MacPhail]

CWS had a terrible MLB pitching crew, bad rotation & BP. Instead of sending their surplus SPs down to AAA & waste their bullets there; they plugged them in their BP. Producing a top BP while supporting an ailing rotation. IMO, this is one big reason for their success. Many of these long RPs will graduate to the rotation.

This is a strategy I wish MN adapts. MN always falters down the road, why waste much needed bullets in AAA, when they are much more needed on the MLB team? Plug Prielipp, Rojas, Matthews & other promising young SP prospect in the BP & use them in long relief. They also have options so they can be sent down bring up another hot hand. This much needed proper workload management.

[Stew]

The fans always jump to conclusions. Abel looked great. He was a nice pick-up two years ago. Let's see if he stays healthy. If he does I'm predicting a great year. Some may be in St. Paul. But he should be a factor before the years out.

[DataNerd]

SP often take a bit of time in MLB to figure it out, especially when they start young.  Abel has more fWAR before age 25 than Skubal did (in less than half the innings as well).

[Cris E]

7 hours ago, thelanges5 said:

Bradley is the only proven pitcher with a contract after 2027. I’d like to see them sign someone like Peralta this offseason. They need that and some of the young guys to take a step forward - Abel, Prielipp, Rojas, Matthews. Not much depth in the minors after that. 

What do you think MLB rotation depth looks like in 2026?  Fangraphs has MIN as the 15th most SP WAR next year, with eight guys projecting over .5 WAR  (Mathews comes in at #8 with 0.6.) That's incredible depth compared to the rest of the league. Go look at their starting pitching depth chart and you can see that while the Twins' ceiling isn't that high, the depth is great. The Dodgers only have seven over .5, the Phillies only have five, and the Pirates five. Those are the top three teams in SP WAR. Next come BOS MIL NYY and SEA at 5, 5, 6 and 6. You have to go down to ATL, the eighth team on the list, to find more decent depth. Essentially this is as deep as MLB tends to get in starting pitching. 

But look at these guys. Matthews posted a 2.57 ERA in 60+ innings at home last season. If he learns to pitch on the road he'll be a monster. Prielipp was wearing the Fragile hat last spring and had a good debut last year, doing essentially what everyone wants Abel to do in 2027.  Abel has shown nothing but dominance when he's thrown, and Rojas has not been up much yet.  If Abel steps into Prielipp's 2026 shoes he'll be a stud.  

Keep in mind that pitchers have to learn a lot and this crew is young.  Abel and Rojas are going to have to suffer the same sort of mixed bag that Mathews and Prielipp did this year, but hopefully those two should be a little older and better able to step forward by evening out their games a little.