Twins General Manager Jeremy Zoll Explains Why Walker Jenkins Hasn’t Been Called Up

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Why not?

Because EmRod is on the 40 man....

[Mike Sixel]

5 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I'm not sure what this is supposed to establish. Jenkins isn't the only 21 or younger player? How many 21 or younger players are in the majors? 21 is still "super-young" for the majors. And it's quite the trick to say "older than Jenkins" and then list 3 guys just months older than him. 2 months is really some meaningful data point for proving he isn't young?

How many of the guys drafted before him have been injured as often as him? 3 of those guys were college superstars multiple years older than him. What do they have to do with whether or not Jenkins is still young for the majors?

Are you actually arguing the Twins haven't preferred veterans over rookies the last decade plus? 

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, Mike Sixel said:

Because EmRod is on the 40 man....

That is certainly a possibility if he's healthy and performing. But would you be upset then? Is that the wrong move to callup the other top-50ish prospect in your AAA outfield who's out of options and already on the 40-man?

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, Mike Sixel said:

Are you actually arguing the Twins haven't preferred veterans over rookies the last decade plus? 

No. If they bring those guys back, Jenkins is very unlikely to be on the opening day roster. But he'll get plenty of opportunity if he's healthy. Because other guys won't be. I'm arguing people care too much about the opening day roster. And, like Lewis, Wallner, Julien, Arraez, etc. once Jenkins gets here, if he performs, he'll steal a job.

But, mainly, I'm arguing it has nothing at all to do with this discussion right now. You're trying to make it sound like since they haven't called him up now, they'll never call him up. You're trying to box people into a corner about him not being on the opening day roster next year being some confirmation that they're doing something crazy. And I'm refusing to go into that box because it ignores so many other things.

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, chpettit19 said:

No. If they bring those guys back, Jenkins is very unlikely to be on the opening day roster. But he'll get plenty of opportunity if he's healthy. Because other guys won't be. I'm arguing people care too much about the opening day roster. And, like Lewis, Wallner, Julien, Arraez, etc. once Jenkins gets here, if he performs, he'll steal a job.

But, mainly, I'm arguing it has nothing at all to do with this discussion right now. You're trying to make it sound like since they haven't called him up now, they'll never call him up. You're trying to box people into a corner about him not being on the opening day roster next year being some confirmation that they're doing something crazy. And I'm refusing to go into that box because it ignores so many other things.

I'm actually NOT .... I'm literally asking what people think will happen next year, given this team's love of veterans. Nothing more or less. Take it at face value, don't read stuff into posts. I've stated over and over I get why HE's not up right now. 

[Mike Sixel]

8 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

That is certainly a possibility if he's healthy and performing. But would you be upset then? Is that the wrong move to callup the other top-50ish prospect in your AAA outfield who's out of options and already on the 40-man?

Not at all. I'm not even upset Jenkins isn't up at this point, with Martin's injury. I've stated over and over I'd have gone Rodriguez, Mendez or Gonzalez (who, imo, are bench players on a good team) or even Ross (as he can play all over and run, IIRC). 

[tjwilliams]

11 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I'm not sure what this is supposed to establish. Jenkins isn't the only 21 or younger player? How many 21 or younger players are in the majors? 21 is still "super-young" for the majors. And it's quite the trick to say "older than Jenkins" and then list 3 guys just months older than him. 2 months is really some meaningful data point for proving he isn't young?

How many of the guys drafted before him have been injured as often as him? 3 of those guys were college superstars multiple years older than him. What do they have to do with whether or not Jenkins is still young for the majors?

What it's supposed to establish is that, within the context of "Top Prospect Who Makes it to AAA by 21 Years Old," calling Jenkins up would not be some outlier. This is pretty much the normal progression for a player like him. Look at any of the guys in the majors right now at 22 or younger and very few of them have more than 100 games or so at AAA and most have far fewer. 

Jenkins is young for an MLB player, but calling him up would not be unusual given his pedigree and progression.

[chpettit19]

4 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm actually NOT .... I'm literally asking what people think will happen next year, given this team's love of veterans. Nothing more or less. Take it at face value, don't read stuff into posts. I've stated over and over I get why HE's not up right now. 

I'm sorry, Mike. Nothing but respect, and we often see things very similarly, but

"So he doesn't come up next year either, if they keep Larnach? Because there's no opportunity?"

"They had an injury.... And called up a third catcher. "

"Why aren't the twins as good as Milwaukee, people ask..... Well, they play rookies a lot. Cleveland has something like a dozen young players? The Twins? Old."

"So, never call him up realistically?"

"I'll ask you the same, if you believe these are the four best hitters, why aren't you bringing them all back next year? And if you do...."

"Are you actually arguing the Twins haven't preferred veterans over rookies the last decade plus?"

You have very much been framing this as bigger than just "he's not up now and I get it." You've been spinning the "this clearly means they won't call him up next year either" thread since your very first post on this thread.

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, tjwilliams said:

What it's supposed to establish is that, within the context of "Top Prospect Who Makes it to AAA by 21 Years Old," calling Jenkins up would not be some outlier. This is pretty much the normal progression for a player like him. Look at any of the guys in the majors right now at 22 or younger and very few of them have more than 100 games or so at AAA and most have far fewer. 

Jenkins is young for an MLB player, but calling him up would not be unusual given his pedigree and progression.

Who said it'd be an outlier? That's not the argument I've seen made. The statement is simply that he's still very young and that's a piece of the equation. He is still very much "super-young" in a baseball sense. That's the point you actually prove. There's 8 of those guys BELOW AAA. And only 4 in the majors. He is very much young. His age shouldn't be a stand alone reason to not call him up, but it doesn't mean he isn't young and it shouldn't be part of the equation when making these decisions.

[Mike Sixel]

8 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I'm sorry, Mike. Nothing but respect, and we often see things very similarly, but

"So he doesn't come up next year either, if they keep Larnach? Because there's no opportunity?"

"They had an injury.... And called up a third catcher. "

"Why aren't the twins as good as Milwaukee, people ask..... Well, they play rookies a lot. Cleveland has something like a dozen young players? The Twins? Old."

"So, never call him up realistically?"

"I'll ask you the same, if you believe these are the four best hitters, why aren't you bringing them all back next year? And if you do...."

"Are you actually arguing the Twins haven't preferred veterans over rookies the last decade plus?"

You have very much been framing this as bigger than just "he's not up now and I get it." You've been spinning the "this clearly means they won't call him up next year either" thread since your very first post on this thread.

all fair. I've been pissy in this thread.

[chpettit19]

4 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

all fair. I've been pissy in this thread.

We all have our days/threads, my friend. No worries here.

[Mike Sixel]

5 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

We all have our days/threads, my friend. No worries here.

I actually meant to do it differently, but must have rolled on a 1 on my test. 

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, HarmonK03 said:

Keaschall can move to second two games a week. 

No, Keaschall cannot move to 2B unless all of Clemens, Lewis, and Kreidler are out. That ship has sailed.

Walker Jenkins comes up if Buxton, Keaschall, or Larnach go on the IL.

The reasoning and examples given by cpettit19 hold as do the examples. The Twins brought up KC, the Yankees brought Lombard Jr., etc. under very specific conditions. Unfortunately, those conditions do not exist (as of now) that make bringing up Jenkins a sound tactic. I thought Buxton was going to be down for six weeks or more with his recent hip injury and wanted Jenkins called up. Buck is back and playing. No room at this time. Injuries can happen at any point in the season. If the Twins need a full time outfielder from AAA, I think they call up Jenkins. 

[tony&rodney]

Damn. Emmanuel Rodriguez obliterated a pitch for a three run bomb in a tied game.

[Permanent Twins Fan]

11 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Damn. Emmanuel Rodriguez obliterated a pitch for a three run bomb in a tied game.

We know he has the power. It is just a question of whether he can keep the strikeout rate down and stay healthy on the field. He is out of options. I think he has a better chance of being called up than Jenkins does this season. 

[Permanent Twins Fan]

14 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Damn. Emmanuel Rodriguez obliterated a pitch for a three run bomb in a tied game.

Yeah, and Walker Jenkins homered twice in the other game of the double header! (Emmanuel Rodriguez also homered in the first game so they each homered twice*)

*Tristian Gray and Gabby Gonzalez also both hit two homers.

[Greglw3]

3 hours ago, Permanent Twins Fan said:

So maybe not Jenkins, but why Jackson?????

They thought it was Reggie?

[Road trip]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

 

No team moves aside legitimate vets for rookies in a playoff race. And the discussion about bringing them back next year is so much bigger than this conversation about calling him up now.

I agree it is quite rare that teams change course on vets in a pennant race, but the Twins did it when they replaced Mientkiewicz with Morneau.  It was controversial, but trading Mientkeiwicz at the end of July was absolutely the right move and worked out splendidly for the Twins both short term and long term.

[HarmonK03]

15 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

No, Keaschall cannot move to 2B unless all of Clemens, Lewis, and Kreidler are out. That ship has sailed.

Walker Jenkins comes up if Buxton, Keaschall, or Larnach go on the IL.

The reasoning and examples given by cpettit19 hold as do the examples. The Twins brought up KC, the Yankees brought Lombard Jr., etc. under very specific conditions. Unfortunately, those conditions do not exist (as of now) that make bringing up Jenkins a sound tactic. I thought Buxton was going to be down for six weeks or more with his recent hip injury and wanted Jenkins called up. Buck is back and playing. No room at this time. Injuries can happen at any point in the season. If the Twins need a full time outfielder from AAA, I think they call up Jenkins. 

I am not as convinced as you are on Keaschall playing some at 2B.  But Larnach has to start hitting, he is hitting .159 the last month, if you are in a pennant race, he has to continue to produce and right now he is not. I realize what he has done all year, but you still have to finish.  

As for Buxton, he is not going to play every day, they are going to manage his playing time.  My guess either Saturday or Sunday this weekend he will either be out of the lineup or DH.

Lewis shouldn't be playing 2B either in my opinion if the goal is to keep your top hitters happy, then he needs to play 1B only. 

They definitely blew it by not calling up Jenkins when Buxton went on the IL.

We are not to going agree and I understand that, but this offense has been struggling since the all star break and to say there are no ways to try and improve, I don't agree with. 

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, Road trip said:

I agree it is quite rare that teams change course on vets in a pennant race, but the Twins did it when they replaced Mientkiewicz with Morneau.  It was controversial, but trading Mientkeiwicz at the end of July was absolutely the right move and worked out splendidly for the Twins both short term and long term.

I think the trading part is important here. I was all for trading Larnach or Bell or Jeffers or any number of players at the deadline. Rumor has it the Twins did nearly trade Larnach. 

And, while Doug was a wiz with the glove, he had an 83 OPS+ for the Twins that year. That's also quite different than Buxton, Keaschall, Larnach, and Bell this year. 

And, Morneau had debuted the previous season. It wasn't his first ever exposure to MLB. And he was 23.

Was certainly a veteran moving for a young guy, but there were also some pretty real differences.

[Western SD Fan]

3 hours ago, HarmonK03 said:

Shelton is willing to move players around just to get Caratini time at 1B, but he wouldn't do it for Jenkins.  That is totally baffling to me.  Philadelphia moved a gold glove second baseman to 3B to get Arraez 's bat into the lineup.

And Bryce Harper moved to the outfield to create a space for Bohm at 1st to get Arraez as well.

 

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

The Caratini at 1B complaint is valid. But are we really comparing a kid with a grand total of 0 MLB pitches seen to a 3-time batting champ and established offensive star? 

I believe the point that was attempting to be made was that the Phillies are willing to move players to include a player that they believe will help them in a stretch/playoff run.  That may be the true answer here is that Zoll, Shelton, and the rest of the staff does not believe that Jenkins will provide the spark that many of us on TD believe he would.

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, Western SD Fan said:

And Bryce Harper moved to the outfield to create a space for Bohm at 1st to get Arraez as well.

 

I believe the point that was attempting to be made was that the Phillies are willing to move players to include a player that they believe will help them in a stretch/playoff run.  That may be the true answer here is that Zoll, Shelton, and the rest of the staff does not believe that Jenkins will provide the spark that many of us on TD believe he would.

A 3-time batting champ. It is not comparable in any meaningful way. I understood the point; it's a bad point. Comparing a kid who's never played in the majors to Luis Arraez is ridiculous. 

And shifting Bryce back to the OF where they already knew he could play because he's played more than 7000 more innings in the OF than at 1B, or moving IFers around (which, by the way, the Twins already did this year, moving Royce to 1B from 3B, like Bohm, is what helped open SS for Culpepper) is very different than putting Keaschall back at the spot they already decided he couldn't play.

Zoll, Shelton, et al don't believe Jenkins is likely to provide more impact than Buxton, Keaschall, Bell, and Larnach. That is what Zoll was saying. And it seems pretty obvious that is the thought process. 

[1985Fan]

Good news is that there are still enough Twins fans paying attention this late in the season. Good to see the response here and the passion for Twins/baseball. IMO, Jenkins is not being promoted for all the right reasons, as I’d rather the FO err on the side of caution with prospects. Seen too many guys recently being promoted too soon for their own good. There’s always going to be an adjustment period for rookies that can be rough (for them, the team, and fans), so now is not Jenkins time. Injury or injuries can change that situation quickly. 

[Whammy]

3 hours ago, Greglw3 said:

OPS+ with its extreme favoring of power hitters is not a fair statistic to use for a line drive hitter like Walker Jenkins. It’s not as inappropriate but in the same spirit as using OPS+ to compare Rod Carew to his contemporaries when he hit .388 in 1977 and won the batting title by 52 points plus the MVP award.

Carew had a 178 OPS+ but Ken Singleton had a 165 OPS+, despite Carew having 239 hits to 176, 38 doubles to 24, 16 triples to none, 128 runs scored to 90, a .388 average to .328, a .449 OBP to .438, 23 SB to none (though not a great %). Singleton appears to be in the same league as Carew simply based on hitting 24 HR to Carew’s 14. 

Ken Singleton had nearly the same OBP though, because he had a ton more walks. 

[ashbury]

This discussion prompted me to check Walker's minor-league L/R splits.  The past three seasons he's had a typical split, like OPS .200 points lower against lefties than righties.  If they brought him up now, he might need to be platooned the way Larnach is - no one wants to see a top prospect flail.  It could be that one of the specific things they want him to work on is to show evidence that top lefties won't make him look foolish when he comes up - a "box to check" as the OP phrased it.

[Riverbrian]

1 minute ago, ashbury said:

This discussion prompted me to check Walker's minor-league L/R splits.  The past three seasons he's had a typical split, like OPS .200 points lower against lefties than righties.  If they brought him up now, he might need to be platooned like Larnach is - no one wants to see a top prospect flail.  It could be that one of the specific things they want him to "work on" is to show evidence that top lefties won't make him look foolish when he comes up.

If they call Walker up and platoon him. 

Keep him in St. Paul. 

If they strip mine him for parts. 

I might be inclined to complain about that. 

[ashbury]

5 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

If they call Walker up and platoon him. 

Keep him in St. Paul. 

If they strip mine him for parts. 

I might be inclined to complain about that. 

The solution, for Jenkins, or any batter, is to be playable against lefties.  If the lineup is too full of players where the opposing manager can walk to the mound and tap his left wrist, and *poof* the rally ends, the Twins manager has to take steps to compensate - or else the team takes their lumps waiting for the player to grow.  Don't be that player, Jenkins.  Show us you're not, at AAA.

[MeleMouth]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

How many of the guys drafted before him have been injured as often as him? 3 of those guys were college superstars multiple years older than him. What do they have to do with whether or not Jenkins is still young for the majors?

Among reasons not to promote Jenkins now, this is an important, less-discussed issue. The Twins have basically been snake-bit with the health of their top young players when they come up to the majors. From Joe Mauer to Byron Buxton to Alex Kirilloff to Royce Lewis, they have a bad streak of injuries. Because of the possible lockout next year, this risk is even bigger, because the last thing anyone would want is Walker Jenkins to become injured soon after coming to the majors, go into a lockout, and have to rehab on his own and not play baseball next year. 

Certainly, that series of facts may not come to pass, but they shouldn't be hand-waved away as not being risks for a team with the injury history of the Twins and a player with the injury history of Jenkins. I might feel differently if we thought this team was one player away from being a force in the playoffs and we were more certain that Jenkins would come up and rake right away, but even with Jenkins the odds the team will make the playoffs will still be well under 50% and the odds the team will do well in the playoffs are much lower, and Jenkins has tended to start slow and need an adjustment period each time he went to a new level.

[Coach]

4 hours ago, Greglw3 said:

.380/.436/.640 in August.

Where is the barrier when he has "forced the issue"? Is it .450/.585/850? I can get the argument that displacing Larnach or Roden might be disruptive to the clubhouse.

On the other hand, Culpepper has so far exceeded his own AAA performance. What if Jenkins merely matched his own?

Worth watching as Jenkins hit a HR in the game to be continued today in the third inning to be followed by the regular Thursday game. Maybe a monster day will force their hand???

If you were captain and choosing sides in a pick-up game, who would you choose next? Larnach or Jenkins.  I believe Culpepper has laid down the blueprint for Jenkins.

[MeleMouth]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

I think the trading part is important here. I was all for trading Larnach or Bell or Jeffers or any number of players at the deadline. Rumor has it the Twins did nearly trade Larnach. 

And, while Doug was a wiz with the glove, he had an 83 OPS+ for the Twins that year. That's also quite different than Buxton, Keaschall, Larnach, and Bell this year. 

And, Morneau had debuted the previous season. It wasn't his first ever exposure to MLB. And he was 23.

Was certainly a veteran moving for a young guy, but there were also some pretty real differences.

There may have been issues particular to Mientkiewicz, also. It sounded like he wasn't, shall we say, very "welcoming" to young Mourneau. To move him out of the locker room, the Twins accepted an OK A ball pitcher in return. 

To get back to the topic at hand, Dougie wasn't nearly as valuable as the players Jenkins would replace.