Byron Buxton and the Kent Hrbek Threshold

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images

The Minnesota Twins have retired eight player uniform numbers. Kent Hrbek is the lone player in that group who is not in the National Baseball Hall of Fame. Harmon Killebrew, Kirby Puckett, Rod Carew, and Joe Mauer were locks; they got through the gates to baseball immortality relatively easily. Tony Oliva, Bert Blyleven and Jim Kaat all eventually reached Cooperstown. Hrbek's case never even generated much discussion, though. In his lone season on the ballot, he got just 1.0% of the vote.

This certainly does not diminish what Hrbek meant to the Twins. From 1981 through 1994, he established himself as one of the most important players in franchise history. He was an All-Star and a key member of two World Series championship teams. His No. 14 now adorns the facing of the second deck in the left-field corner at Target Field alongside those Hall of Famers, because his career represented something bigger than individual statistics.

That raises an interesting question when looking at Byron Buxton. Buxton is not on a Hall of Fame trajectory, either. Injuries have limited his playing time, which has made it difficult for him to build the kind of career totals typically associated with Cooperstown. But that doesn't mean his overall body of work should be dismissed.

In fact, comparing Buxton's numbers to Hrbek's shows that the gap between the two is not quite as wide as their career totals might suggest. The biggest difference is obvious: Hrbek played nearly twice as many games. But when the comparison shifts toward rate statistics, defensive value and the areas in which Buxton has been elite, the conversation becomes much more interesting.

There's no real argument when it comes to career volume. Hrbek appeared in 1,747 games, compared to 981 for Buxton. He accumulated 7,137 plate appearances to Buxton's 3,783, and Hrbek finished with 1,749 hits, 293 home runs and 1,086 RBIs. Buxton's current totals are 856 hits, 193 homers and 481 RBIs. 

That difference in longevity has a major impact on virtually every counting statistic. Hrbek also owns the edge in batting average, on-base percentage and OPS. He hit .282 with a .367 on-base percentage and a .481 slugging average, compared to Buxton's .249/.309/.492 line. Hrbek's 128 OPS+ also tops Buxton's 117. That is an important distinction. Buxton has produced tremendous power, but Hrbek was the more complete offensive player over a much larger sample.

The same can be seen in WAR. Hrbek finished his career with 38.6 WAR, compared to 32.9 for Buxton. Hrbek also accumulated 37.5 offensive WAR, while Buxton sits at 25.7. However, Buxton has time to pass Hrbek in WAR with the remaining time in his career. 

Opportunity has been, perhaps, the most important separator between the two. Hrbek played through age 34 and spent 14 seasons building his résumé. Buxton's comparison currently stops at age 32. That leaves Buxton with a significant amount of ground to make up, especially in the statistics most often used to define franchise legends.

Hrbek also has a substantial edge in postseason résumé. He was part of two Twins championship teams, something Buxton has not yet experienced. If Buxton's career ended today, Hrbek would still have the stronger overall résumé as a framchise icon. That part is not particularly close.

Where Buxton Has the Advantage

The most obvious advantage for Buxton is that he has created considerably more value with his legs. Buxton has 124 stolen bases compared to Hrbek's 37, and his career stolen-base percentage is an MLB-record 90.5% compared to Hrbek's 58.7%. Buxton has produced 36 runs of baserunning value, while Hrbek sits at -1. That's not a small difference.

For all of Hrbek's offensive accomplishments, he was a first baseman whose value came overwhelmingly from his bat. Buxton has been a much more multidimensional player. The defensive comparison is even more striking. Buxton has accumulated 8.3 defensive WAR, compared to -7.7 for Hrbek. (Virtually every center fielder has a positive defensive WAR, since FanGraphs includes a positional adjustment in that statistic. Every first baseman has a negative defensive WAR. Both players' performance pushed their numbers toward the extremes, though, rather than toward the center at 0.) Buxton's fielding contribution is credited at 70 runs above average, while Hrbek's sits at 16. 

That makes sense when considering how Buxton has built his reputation. At his best, he has been one of the most dynamic center fielders in baseball. Hrbek was a good defensive first baseman at different points in his career, but he was never going to change a game defensively in the same way Buxton could.

Buxton also has more home runs per game played. He has hit 193 home runs in 981 games, while Hrbek hit 293 in 1,747 games. Hrbek's longevity gives him a large edge in total home runs, but Buxton's rate of nearly 20 homers per 100 games is impressive. Buxton’s .244 isolated power mark is significantly higher compared to Hrbek's .198.

This is where the "what if" surrounding Buxton becomes so important. He has never had the opportunity to put together a long, uninterrupted stretch of seasons like Hrbek did. Despite playing 766 fewer games, Buxton has already accumulated a WAR total approaching Hrbek's career number.

Of course, WAR also isn't the only robust way to capture and weigh players' contributions. Hrbek got considerable value from availability, which baseball people have always venerated as the best ability. But through the prism of runs above average (RAA), Buxton is much better than Hrbek, even over a much smaller sample. He's been worth 196 RAA in his career, versus just 138 for Hrbek. Aguably, it's the ability to do each of the key things on a diamond—batting, baserunning and fielding—better than an average player that makes a guy a cornerstone for a winning team. Buxton does that much better than Hrbek did.

This is where the Hrbek comparison gets interesting for the Twins. No one should pretend Buxton has already matched Hrbek's career. He has not. Hrbek has the advantage in games, plate appearances, hits, RBI, total home runs, batting average, on-base percentage, OPS, OPS+ and WAR. But Buxton has already built a résumé that is difficult to ignore. His combination of power, speed and defense makes his career profile unique in Twins history.  It does make the idea of Buxton eventually reaching the same historical territory much more realistic.

The next few seasons will determine whether that becomes a legitimate conversation. If Buxton can stay healthy enough to add several more productive seasons, pass Hrbek in WAR and continue climbing the Twins' home run rankings, his argument for a retired number becomes far more compelling.

There is also something worth remembering about the standard for a retired number in Minnesota. The Twins do not strictly reserve that honor for Hall of Famers. They reserve it for players who became synonymous with the franchise. Hrbek did that. Buxton has a chance to do the same.

The career paths are completely different. Hrbek was the dependable middle-of-the-order cornerstone who played 14 seasons and helped bring two championships to Minnesota. Buxton has been the spectacular, oft-injured center fielder whose peak has been among the most exciting stretches any Twins player has produced. Buxton has always held the promise of being the main guy on a pennant-winning team, if he could stay healthy enough. Hrbek was never on that level. Hrbek had better teammates and better health, though, and has gotten to bask in the glow of each. He's also a native Minnesotan, which gave him a leg up on being beloved. Buxton's demonstrated loyalty to his adopted home should go far in that regard, too, but it might never be worth as much to the fan base as the accident of Hrbek being born and bred here.

Buxton still has work to do before he reaches the Kent Hrbek threshold. But based on the numbers, he's already much closer than the simple career totals would suggest. And for the Twins, that makes the question worth asking now, rather than years from now.

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Can Buxton reach the Hrbek threshold? Should the Twins retire Buxton’s number? Leave a comment and start the discussion. 

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[Parfigliano]

With all the hype I always forget that Buxton doesn't even have 1000 hits.

[PuckettPond]

The best thing Buxton can do for the Twins is waive his no trade clause so Minnesota, Twins & fans can move forward. Time to turn the page stop drinking the Kool Aid & see reality. Trade him for young prospects before MLB sees Buxton for what he is. Over Hyped, Over paid, Over here.

[tony&rodney]

This is a strange comparison. Good job using numbers I guess, but I cannot see the two in a comparison.

[Patzky]

Titles matter

 Home cooking matters.

Team HOF membership takes into account intangibles that MLB HOF would not consider.

I fully expect as the face of the team for ten plus years, 25 will be retired.

 

[djvang]

I don't think you could make any comparison at all between them. Hrbek was a solid, dependable player for many years,  Buxton was spectacular in very short spurts between injuries.. The Twins made Buxton the public face of the team because there wasn't much else to choose from. His PR vastly exceeded his actual contributions.

[tony&rodney]

4 minutes ago, djvang said:

I don't think you could make any comparison at all between them. Hrbek was a solid, dependable player for many years,  Buxton was spectacular in very short spurts between injuries.. The Twins made Buxton the public face of the team because there wasn't much else to choose from. His PR vastly exceeded his actual contributions.

Cold-hearted thinking would logically agree  with your statement. Each decade wants to identify a player that fits in a club's HOF. Maybe we should be comparing Buxton to Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco or someone else. The article almost seems a bit disrespectful to Hbek whose contributions were much greater on a consistent basis over a longer period of time.