Ryan Jeffers Report Gives Twins Another Trade Deadline Dilemma

[Derojo]

Your article is humorous; the (mythical) missing piece. 

[killercarewoliva]

14 hours ago, Coach said:

Would you turn down 23 million dollars just to do what you're doing now?  If Jeffers accepts it, he's not worth it.  If we can't extend him, that's not on his agent, that is on him. Either he's with us, or against us.  Let the chips fall where they may.  I personally would love for him to be a stand-up teammate and accept a nice extension to stay with the organization.  Just how much money does someone need to be happy?

perfect. Sports are a money game. Rarely a Varland stops by then the team trades that away for unproven people. Players used to play for loving the game. Jim Kaat 13k Bert Blyleven 9k. They played for that. No agents no free agency. If inflation kept up ball players money a loaf of bread would be $10,000! Box seat behind the plate about $5. What's regular price now? They will play where they get the most money. 

[Coach JT]

Yes they need to trade Jeffers . Reliever and starter and top prospect would be a great option . All pitching 

[DJL44]

4 hours ago, SteveLV said:

How about just SIGNING him to an extension.  There is still time to get it done if you hustle.  He likes the Twins. Pay the man, He deserves it.

He said he will turn down the qualifying offer which means Twins give up a high draft pick for the opportunity to pay him market rate salary. No thanks.

[LA Vikes Fan]

9 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

The highest paid catcher in the big leagues is making $17.5 million.  Three are making more than $12.5 million.  But you think JEFFERS is gonna make $23 million?  IF that's the case the offers for him had better start at any organization's best pitching prospect, best hitting prospect and another of their top four prospects, all of whom had better be among the top 50 prospects in the game.

No, that’s not what I said. He said he’s going to reject the $23 million qualifying offer which avoids exactly what you’re afraid of, the team having an overpaid catcher. He’s right to reject it by the way if he can get a multi year deal at $15M to 20M, and I think he can. It’s a much better deal for him to have financial security at say, $17 million a year for three or four years, then one year of $23 million, followed by going back in the market when he is a year older and may have had another injury. I think rejecting a qualifying offer in favor of a three or four year deal at $15-$20 million a year is a no-brainer for him.  I don’t think the Twins are going to be willing to do that, but they don’t want to keep him for the rest of the season and then just watch him walk, so the qualifying offer is perfect for the team and even more perfect if he doesn’t accept it. Now we can actually keep him for this year’s stretch run, make the qualifying offer, and at least get some draft choice compensation when he walks. 

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, killercarewoliva said:

perfect. Sports are a money game. Rarely a Varland stops by then the team trades that away for unproven people. Players used to play for loving the game. Jim Kaat 13k Bert Blyleven 9k. They played for that. No agents no free agency. If inflation kept up ball players money a loaf of bread would be $10,000! Box seat behind the plate about $5. What's regular price now? They will play where they get the most money. 

Hahaha. No, they played for money. It isn't a game, it's a profession. You want the owners to have all the money?

[IndianaTwin]

10 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

The highest paid catcher in the big leagues is making $17.5 million.  Three are making more than $12.5 million.  But you think JEFFERS is gonna make $23 million?  IF that's the case the offers for him had better start at any organization's best pitching prospect, best hitting prospect and another of their top four prospects, all of whom had better be among the top 50 prospects in the game.

Raleigh will be making $24.6M in 2028-31. His overall AAV is less because it includes two arb years. Realmuto was making more than $23M several years ago. Perez made $22M last year. 

I doubt Jeffers will get multiple years at $23M. I think he would get reasonably close to that if he were to pursue a one-year contract. 

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, IndianaTwin said:

Raleigh will be making $24.6M in 2028-31. His overall AAV is less because it includes two arb years. Realmuto was making more than $23M several years ago. Perez made $22M last year. 

I doubt Jeffers will get multiple years at $23M. I think he would get reasonably close to that if he were to pursue a one-year contract. 

He's not pursuing a one year deal when he could take the QO.

As for signing him, that would be done if they were both willing. It's not, so one or both sides aren't willing. 

[Otaknam]

I think if some team completely blows them away with a trade offer they make the deal. Otherwise, keep Jeffers, try to make the playoffs, and get the compensatory pick in the offseason. The playoffs was unexpected this year, but this team isn’t poised for any serious playoff run. So playing for the future is important to keep in mind. 

[IndianaTwin]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

He's not pursuing a one year deal when he could take the QO.

As for signing him, that would be done if they were both willing. It's not, so one or both sides aren't willing. 

Agreed. I’m just using it as a reference point as to why it would make sense for the Twins to offer and why it would make sense for him to turn it down. 

[ashbury]

19 hours ago, Coach said:

Either he's with us, or against us.  

Ty Cobb?  It's great to have you come back and take part in our discussion!

[dxpavelka]

2 hours ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

No, that’s not what I said. He said he’s going to reject the $23 million qualifying offer which avoids exactly what you’re afraid of, the team having an overpaid catcher. He’s right to reject it by the way if he can get a multi year deal at $15M to 20M, and I think he can. It’s a much better deal for him to have financial security at say, $17 million a year for three or four years, then one year of $23 million, followed by going back in the market when he is a year older and may have had another injury. I think rejecting a qualifying offer in favor of a three or four year deal at $15-$20 million a year is a no-brainer for him.  I don’t think the Twins are going to be willing to do that, but they don’t want to keep him for the rest of the season and then just watch him walk, so the qualifying offer is perfect for the team and even more perfect if he doesn’t accept it. Now we can actually keep him for this year’s stretch run, make the qualifying offer, and at least get some draft choice compensation when he walks. 

Not sure why you think I'm AFRAID of him rejecting a qualifying offer.  Or of him accepting one.  I have been advocating keeping him for weeks.  Not the least bit afraid of him leaving for nothing.  This even alleviates that concern.  A compensatory pick is probably just as good as what we MIGHT get by moving him now.  My biggest concern is seeing him in the dugout on the other side of the field come October. Sometimes the best deals are the ones you DON'T make. Would I want to pay him $23 next year?  Probably not.  Would it be the worst thing in the world to have to do so as a one year bridge to one of four catchers on your top 14 prospect list?  Also, probably not. Especially if you fall out of contention next year, or one of the four progresses faster than expected and you move him a year hence.  Not the mention the very real possibility of not having to pay him anything for a season that might not be played pending resolution of a very uncertain CBA situation.

[killercarewoliva]

3 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Hahaha. No, they played for money. It isn't a game, it's a profession. You want the owners to have all the money?

That's a good point. there was a time when owners got most of the profit. sometimes I wonder how they even own a team considering the money the players receive. what it is to me is the prices that people pay to see baseball now. I recall one time I spent $70 to sit on the third row behind home plate in Baltimore. Johann Santana was pitching. when the Yankees stadium reopened there were seats for $1,600 per game and they also had $5 seats. football has 20 games to make their money from baseball. has 162 and prices have become the same as football. I have advocated something no one will do except me don't go. everybody don't do it. first game of the season nobody show up. prices might come down. most of the people that go to baseball have enormously high income and they're willing to throw it away because ultimately it's just a game. why should it be worth $300 in many stadiums to get a close-up seat so you have four people that's $1,200 plus concession and parking. who can be a season ticket holder with that scenario? that's my point on the money. make it come down.

[Mike Sixel]

6 minutes ago, killercarewoliva said:

That's a good point. there was a time when owners got most of the profit. sometimes I wonder how they even own a team considering the money the players receive. what it is to me is the prices that people pay to see baseball now. I recall one time I spent $70 to sit on the third row behind home plate in Baltimore. Johann Santana was pitching. when the Yankees stadium reopened there were seats for $1,600 per game and they also had $5 seats. football has 20 games to make their money from baseball. has 162 and prices have become the same as football. I have advocated something no one will do except me don't go. everybody don't do it. first game of the season nobody show up. prices might come down. most of the people that go to baseball have enormously high income and they're willing to throw it away because ultimately it's just a game. why should it be worth $300 in many stadiums to get a close-up seat so you have four people that's $1,200 plus concession and parking. who can be a season ticket holder with that scenario? that's my point on the money. make it come down.

I would bet my life prices don't drop to the levels you want. It would be great! But not happening. 

[clone52]

3 hours ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

No, that’s not what I said. He said he’s going to reject the $23 million qualifying offer which avoids exactly what you’re afraid of, the team having an overpaid catcher. He’s right to reject it by the way if he can get a multi year deal at $15M to 20M, and I think he can. It’s a much better deal for him to have financial security at say, $17 million a year for three or four years, then one year of $23 million, followed by going back in the market when he is a year older and may have had another injury. I think rejecting a qualifying offer in favor of a three or four year deal at $15-$20 million a year is a no-brainer for him.  I don’t think the Twins are going to be willing to do that, but they don’t want to keep him for the rest of the season and then just watch him walk, so the qualifying offer is perfect for the team and even more perfect if he doesn’t accept it. Now we can actually keep him for this year’s stretch run, make the qualifying offer, and at least get some draft choice compensation when he walks. 

I agree he would reject a QO, but he is not becoming the highest paid catcher in MLB.  More like 12-14M AAV.

[alexlegge]

7 hours ago, AlwaysinModeration said:

Thanks for posting that Fangraphs piece. It’s been several years since I looked at the cost of free agents per WAR and this piece adds a lot of nuance.

The piece notes that there is a big jump in price for 2+ WAR players as compared to 1-2WAR players. Jeffers is borderline between those areas.  He’s definitely not a 3-5 WAR player commanding the high end of the scale.  I’d suggest he’d get less than the 2+WAR group (which was $12.86) and more than the 1-2WAR group (which was $8.5).  Let’s split it and say $11mm/ WAR.

Now, how many WAR is he projected to get over a 4 (or 5) year contract?  You say he’ll be projected/ paid for 2WAR in 27, which is reasonable given his 23-26 track record. In 2028, he will be projected at 1.6WAR or 1.5WAR, depending on the discount factor (the article uses 0.4WAR decline per year, but Tango and Smith have typically used 0.5WAR decline per year).  In 2029, his projection goes down to 1.2 or 1.0, and finally, in 2030, he is projected for either 0.8 or 0.5WAR.  

So, the calculations for his free agent contract woken out like this:

2+1.6+1.2+0.8 =5.6, at $11mm/WAR = 4years. $62mm, or $15.5mm/year

Or, using the steeper decline model, which might make sense (especially for a catcher):

2+1.5+1+0.5 =5 at $11mm= 4years, $55mm, or $13.7mm/ year.

So Jeffers as a free agent this off season could be looking at a contract in the 4 years, $55-60mm range.

(Note that the fifth year projection is 0-0.4 war, or $0-$4.4mm tacked on. If a team is willing to tack on a fifth year in order to land him, they are paying for basically no projected value.)

As for next year, at $11mm/WAR, his projected value in 2027 is roughly $22mm.  Twins could expect to get roughly even value if they offer him a QO and he accepts.
 

However, Jefferson would be right to reject the $23mm QO offer, because he will get a contract worth $30-$40mm more than the QO offer.

 

Thanks, this is definitely a better breakdown than the cursory one I did!

To some extent the different WAR columns in the Fangraphs article aren't very helpful in applying to Jeffers. Inevitably as a catcher, a steep decline will be anticipated and factored into a longer term deal. However, he's probably likely to produce more than 2 WAR next year. If I had to predict, I'd say 2.5, though leaning further toward 3 than 2.

I wonder if Ben Clemens included players who accepted qualifying offers in the model (probably not?) and/or if there's another iteration of this which does. I'd also be curious to know the cost per WAR specifically among one-year "prove it" deals which have grown in popularity over the last decade.

Ultimately, it all boils down to the fact that the $23M qualifying offer is likely to be very close to what his actual 2027 value relative to free agent salaries is expected to be. Perhaps it's a slight underpay or overpay, but likely not by much in either direction. And yeah, as you stated, the big reason for him to reject it is about the total guaranteed contract, not AAV (which would almost certainly be less than the QO if he signs for >2 years)

[killercarewoliva]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

I would bet my life prices don't drop to the levels you want. It would be great! But not happening. 

thank you for that reply and you are absolutely correct. that's part of The problem. when a business can see they can get more money for something it rarely comes back down that much does it.

[killercarewoliva]

Just now, killercarewoliva said:

thank you for that reply and you are absolutely correct. that's part of The problem. when a business can see they can get more money for something it rarely comes back down that much does it.

One reason is people will continue to be Hoodwinked at the ball field. they are not going to stop coming. they'll just keep paying higher as long as they can

[alexlegge]

1 hour ago, clone52 said:

I agree he would reject a QO, but he is not becoming the highest paid catcher in MLB.  More like 12-14M AAV.

I think there's a very good chance he'll become the highest paid catcher in the game if he hits free agency. Keep in mind that the best catcher and the highest paid catcher are often two different players. 

Currently, the two highest-paid catchers are JT Realmuto and Sean Murphy. Murhpy signed an extension in 2022. Realmuto re-signed with the Phillies this past year as a free agent. Over the last few seasons, he has been worth slightly more than Jeffers - though not by much. Given Jeffers age, I think it's more likely than not for him to end up with a higher AAV than Realmuto.

Given inflation, it's not crazy to think that he'd come close to Realmuto's previous free agent contract with the Phillies - at least in AAV. That contract was 5 years, $115M. Jeffers is the same age as Realmuto was when he signed that. I'd predict Jeffers to land something more like 3y/$60M or 4y/$75M, either of which would make him the highest paid catcher in the league.