Has the Twins’ Farm System Put Them in Position to Make a Bigger Move?

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

With potentially  5 teams needing a catcher the Twins should be able to get surplus value in trading Jeffers. If a prospect needs to be added to get 3-4 years of a starting pitcher you do that deal every day. Starting pitching is still my biggest concern in the next competitive window. 

[old nurse]

59 minutes ago, ashbury said:

If they're interested in Jeffers then they are going for it, and then why would they trade away the starting pitcher giving them the second most b-r value this season, who I believe isn't even eligible for arbitration yet?

They would be willing to trade him if they see this season as an anomaly.  If the return is what they are looking for he will be traded. I doubt that it would be for a rental and garbage 

[AlLagoon]

Garver and Jeffers in Seattle. That would be bizarre.

BTW, I've always considered trading prospects for established players the domain of the baseball haves, NYY, LAD, Boston, Philadelphia, Mets, etc.

The Twins are in no position either on the field, or in the bank account, to give up potential cost controlled players, some of whom might be really good, at this point. 

If it's a baseball trade of equivalents, then maybe.

[DocBauer]

My answer, unfortunately, is both YES and NO.

But let me explain my ambiguity. 

I've always believed 2026 was a retooling season. We've started to see that with a number of young arms debuting and getting their feet wet. And I'm still hoping we get Raya back soon...throwing the way he was...and CJ Culpepper at some point in the pen as well. Unfortunately, Abel and Festa are done for the year. (Fingers tightly crossed there is a FIX for his injury).

On the position player side, things have been murky. Injuries have delayed Roden, Jenkins, Rodriguez, and K-Pepper, though Roden is up now, and we might still see Jenkins and Rodriguez as well. KC should still debut at some point and get his feet wet for 2027. And I don't think Gonzalez and Mendez are very far behind. And so far, Houston looks to be at least a decent/solid hitter with an amazing glove that MIGHT be ready in 2027 as well.

So I'm having a really hard time trading the TOP prospects of Jenkins, Rodriguez, KC, and Houston at this point. I want so much to see an INF of Lee, Houston, K-Pepper, with Lewis probably at 1B.

And Buxton is still at the top of his game even at 85-90% and isn't going anywhere. And I've been damn impressed with Keaschall in the OF, the potential he's shown there, and his offense has been damn good since May, even though I'd still like to see a little more pop/power.

BUT, the Keaschall move to the OF further changes the OF situation of talented prospect depth. There's not room for EVERYONE, and that gives you room for trade options right there.

So then I say YES that they have the ability to make a significant trade, but I just don't want to touch those top 5. If I HAD to pick one, it might be Rodriguez only because you'd be "betting" he might not reach his potential. But that's a very scary bet to make.

But I believe Gonzalez and Mendez have some real value. I'm not certain that Rosario...killing it at AAA since his long awaited promotion...doesn't also have some value as part of a deal. And while I'm afraid we might end up regretting moving him in a deal, I can see a team really liking to have Winokur in a deal.

The Twins drafted a lot of interesting arms in 2025. Unfortunately, most of them are either injured, or began the season injured and are still working their way back currently. But they also went pretty hard on some intriguing arms in this past draft, especially early, so by next season, we could see a slew of arms at both A levels, hopefully a couple at AA as well, to help replenish the system. So maybe moving Soto or Hill in a big deal isn't such a bad option?

And while I'm not interested in moving the young Tait, I can see him still being a valuable trade piece as well. Again, like Winokur and all the other possibilities listed, you may regret moving them one day. But you can't get something for nothing.

***Just a side note, if Jeffers was moved to someone like NY, LA, or BOS, I don't believe they would see him as a pure rental player. They would have the cache and cash to re-sign him with a deal the Twins simply can't, or won't. 

I like the idea of Hancock as presented by @chpettit19, or someone similar. I'd rather go the Jeffers, Mendez, Hill route for Hancock and a young RP and leave Rodriguez out of it. Maybe another top 20-30 throw in, or Wallner/Larnach if that gets it done?

Adding another quality SP to go along with Lopez, Ryan, Bradley, Abel, and Prielipp...MAYBE Ober...is a hell of a good looking rotation. Add one good looking BP arm and then maybe Matthews DOES switch to bullpen...especially with concerns about Festa...and you might really have something. The debate of what to do with Rojas in this configuration is a different topic for a different day.

So my answer is a convoluted YES and NO. I believe the system is deep enough to move some really talented young prospects without destroying the system. I just really want to stay away from the TOP 5.

[dxpavelka]

4 hours ago, Rufus said:

4 of he Twins top 14 prospects are catchers..  See what a Jeffers trade can bring.

Most likely it brings at least a year, if not two of pretending we can contend with Caratini & Jackson behind the dish until a youngster shows up and (hopefully) is ready to contribute to a contender right away.  

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, AlLagoon said:

Garver and Jeffers in Seattle. That would be bizarre.

BTW, I've always considered trading prospects for established players the domain of the baseball haves, NYY, LAD, Boston, Philadelphia, Mets, etc.

The Twins are in no position either on the field, or in the bank account, to give up potential cost controlled players, some of whom might be really good, at this point. 

If it's a baseball trade of equivalents, then maybe.

The pitcher from Seattle can't be a free agent until 31......

[AlLagoon]

Taking a look at the standings tonight, guess who else is competing for a wild card spot?

Yankees and Red Sox: oh, and the Guardians. 

Hovering within a game of the Twins in that race are Seattle, Houston, Baltimore.

Jeffers is the best chip to deal. 

I'd keep Ryan for now.

 

[AlLagoon]

29 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

The pitcher from Seattle can't be a free agent until 31......

All in favor of baseball trades, like for like.

[LA Vikes Fan]

3 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Couldn't afford to do the Sonny Gray trade every year. Financially speaking. That's why you need cheap ceiling. I've been open to trading Emma for a couple years now. When they were in "win now" mode. I'm not so open to the idea of trading young guys now. Because I think the real window opens in 2028. And I don't subscribe to any idea that you ever have a surplus anywhere when you aren't in "win now" mode.

I don't care if the Twins have 8 OF prospects with a chance of being major leaguers, I'd still want a 9th and 10th. Don't care if they have 5 C prospects with a chance of being major leaguers, I'd still want a 6th and 7th. Playing the guessing game of which one will make it and which one won't is a dangerous game.

When you're in your window, I'm all for trading some prospects for major leaguers. I had no problem at all with the Mahle/Lopez deadline. But when you're working on opening your window, I want every last prospect I can get. If 6 OFers end up succeeding, then I'm in my new window and I trade a couple to fill other holes. It's all about where you're at in the cycle to me. And I don't think the Twins are in a part of the cycle that should include trading away ceiling. Unless you're getting something pretty impressive like 4 more years of Emerson Hancock.

Good way to look at it. I’m all for creating prospects for controllable pitching like Hancock. Otherwise, keep them and sort them out over the next 1.5 years until the real contention window opens. 

[soyouresayingtheresachance]

I dont really know which prospects I'd trade. 

There are some on the ML roster I would move/make available. 

I would trade Bell and move Larnach to DH against RH pitching. Opening up an OF spot for one of the many waiting AAA guys. Also opens up DH days against LH pitching. 

Royce Lewis can be traded. Change of scenery IMO. Trading for a quality 1B at the deadline is usually fairly simple. 

Im trading Caratini and keeping Jeffers. The drop-off from Jeffers to Caratini is immense. Alex Jackson is a nice backup. Giving Jeffers the QO in the likely event we cant extend him. 

Austin Martin is available.  

Buxton stays in CF. Keaschall keeps an OF spot. Lee stays at 3B. Kriedler/Culpepper at SS. Clemens at 2B. Trade for 1B. Jeffers at C

Obviously need pitching help. There are a few trades that can be made to help the team now and clear roster spots for some AAA guys. 

[UK Twin]

9 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

He's not a top of the rotation arm, but Emerson Hancock has 4 more years of control left and is rumored to be available from the Mariners. That's the "bigger" move I make. Add another MLB arm to the rotation. Only I'm not using any of these prospects to get him. I'm using Ryan Jeffers.

This was my thinking before I saw your post as well. If Hancock is indeed available there's an obvious trade to make there.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

9 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Couldn't afford to do the Sonny Gray trade every year. Financially speaking. That's why you need cheap ceiling. I've been open to trading Emma for a couple years now. When they were in "win now" mode. I'm not so open to the idea of trading young guys now. Because I think the real window opens in 2028. And I don't subscribe to any idea that you ever have a surplus anywhere when you aren't in "win now" mode.

I don't care if the Twins have 8 OF prospects with a chance of being major leaguers, I'd still want a 9th and 10th. Don't care if they have 5 C prospects with a chance of being major leaguers, I'd still want a 6th and 7th. Playing the guessing game of which one will make it and which one won't is a dangerous game.

When you're in your window, I'm all for trading some prospects for major leaguers. I had no problem at all with the Mahle/Lopez deadline. But when you're working on opening your window, I want every last prospect I can get. If 6 OFers end up succeeding, then I'm in my new window and I trade a couple to fill other holes. It's all about where you're at in the cycle to me. And I don't think the Twins are in a part of the cycle that should include trading away ceiling. Unless you're getting something pretty impressive like 4 more years of Emerson Hancock.

Actually you could do the Sonny Gray trade every year. Sonny was on a very reasonable deal which is why we traded for him.  $11 million and $12 million.  Let’s just call it $15 to $20 million a year now So. For your top 2 arms a year you are paying $35 million.  That is not constricting the team.  Now you are absolutely losing upside.  However actually salary isn’t the issue in this scenario.

[HarmonK03]

9 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I don't care if the Twins have 8 OF prospects with a chance of being major leaguers, I'd still want a 9th and 10th

Yes but if they are all at the same level how do you give them enough AB's to continue their development.  We have 12 outfielders between Minnesota and St. Paul when ERod is healthy.  At some point you can't clog your rosters.  You need to have some balance.

[HarmonK03]

They need to pick a lane in the seven or less days.  Their farm system is highly rated, so use those assets by either upgrading the current roster or trade away anyone blocking the kids and bring them up.  No more half measures.  There are a lot of great suggestions on different trades here, but what is the end goal.

If they truly want to contend and not just get into the playoffs, they need at least two relievers that you can rely on in the back end, a starting pitcher and one more bat in the lineup that lets you upgrade over Bell as your cleanup hitter.

If they can't make that commitment, trade Larnach, Bell and Jeffers and maybe Martin for whatever you can get. You need to clear room in the outfield.  Bring up Jenkins, Culpepper when healthy.  Decide what other two outfielders to bring up.  Let the young guys grow together, have patience because there will be hitting struggles and missed plays in the field due to inexperience.  Shoot for a window of 28 or 29 to truly compete.  See what you have and fill in holes the next couple of offseasons.

But build a team that can truly contend.  Winning a World Series is hard, but give me a team that at least feels like you have a chance to get there, not just make the third wildcard.  That you don't need every break and get really lucky to make it.  That is this year's team.  Good teams make their own breaks and create their own luck.

 

[Russ]

They still have need to evaluate and develop the talent.  Shortcomings the Twins have had.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Actually you could do the Sonny Gray trade every year. Sonny was on a very reasonable deal which is why we traded for him.  $11 million and $12 million.  Let’s just call it $15 to $20 million a year now So. For your top 2 arms a year you are paying $35 million.  That is not constricting the team.  Now you are absolutely losing upside.  However actually salary isn’t the issue in this scenario.

Fair enough. 

[chpettit19]

54 minutes ago, HarmonK03 said:

Yes but if they are all at the same level how do you give them enough AB's to continue their development.  We have 12 outfielders between Minnesota and St. Paul when ERod is healthy.  At some point you can't clog your rosters.  You need to have some balance.

They don't have 12 OF prospects. I don't think this team is good enough. I didn't think they were good enough coming into the season. Trevor Larnach wouldn't be here if I'd been in charge. Wallner would be flat out gone by now. Bell wouldn't be here. I don't know what they all look like at 1B, but a handful of them would be getting daily reps at 1B before games to prepare them for a position shift. 

The reason I don't believe in things like "clogged" rosters is because 1. they're never all healthy for a year, and 2. you can move guys. Whether in position or off the team. The Twins problem this year is they half-a'd the rebuild. They tried to play to win now and in the future and stuck themselves in a position where they can't win now and are hurting their chances in the future. Part of what you cut out of my post was me saying that if 6 OF prospects all turn out then you trade some to fill other holes. My argument is that when you're not in a win now window, you don't try to guess at which prospects will make it. You hold them all until you find out and go from there. But you don't block those guys with guys who aren't part of the future.

[tony&rodney]

23 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

They don't have 12 OF prospects. I don't think this team is good enough. I didn't think they were good enough coming into the season. Trevor Larnach wouldn't be here if I'd been in charge. Wallner would be flat out gone by now. Bell wouldn't be here. I don't know what they all look like at 1B, but a handful of them would be getting daily reps at 1B before games to prepare them for a position shift. 

The reason I don't believe in things like "clogged" rosters is because 1. they're never all healthy for a year, and 2. you can move guys. Whether in position or off the team. The Twins problem this year is they half-a'd the rebuild. They tried to play to win now and in the future and stuck themselves in a position where they can't win now and are hurting their chances in the future. Part of what you cut out of my post was me saying that if 6 OF prospects all turn out then you trade some to fill other holes. My argument is that when you're not in a win now window, you don't try to guess at which prospects will make it. You hold them all until you find out and go from there. But you don't block those guys with guys who aren't part of the future.

Perhaps the poster/comment was related to the number of outfielders on the 40 person roster, which currently sits at ten players. Of course the Twins can cut, release, trade, rule 5, or otherwise reduce the number. Some decisions will be made soon. 

[chpettit19]

20 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Perhaps the poster/comment was related to the number of outfielders on the 40 person roster, which currently sits at ten players. Of course the Twins can cut, release, trade, rule 5, or otherwise reduce the number. Some decisions will be made soon. 

That was my understanding. And my counter is that I don't care about Larnach, Wallner, or Bell. I mention Bell because you can DH 1 of your OFers if you have 4 of them worthy of those PAs. Don't care about Clemens in the OF.

My comment about the 12 OFers they'd mentioned was meant to emphasize the word "prospect." They may have a bunch of OFers between MLB and AAA, but they aren't all prospects. They aren't all guys who are going to be a part of the future. I think the next window truly opens in 2028. Not all 12 of those guys are parts that are on a 2028 and beyond timeline. So I don't care about them. I care about the guys who can be part of an actual winning team. Prospects.

[HarmonK03]

2 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Perhaps the poster/comment was related to the number of outfielders on the 40 person roster, which currently sits at ten players. Of course the Twins can cut, release, trade, rule 5, or otherwise reduce the number. Some decisions will be made soon. 

Thank you, that was my point, and that doesn't include Keaschall and Rosario.  There are just not enough AB's to go around.  You need depth but you also need balance.  At this point Wallner needs to be traded even if for a bucket for balls, I still believe in him and would like to see what a change of scenery would do for him.  But obviously he is not in their plans but yet is playing every day in St. Paul.  Fedko is another that probably should be removed from the 40 man roster.

I would hate to see Larnach go but if they are not contenders he is one they need to move on from and even Bell as well opening up the DH slot.  But this roster construction has to be addressed sooner than later.  And don't bring in more outfielders unless they are a clear upgrade over the top prospects.

[HarmonK03]

2 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

That was my understanding. And my counter is that I don't care about Larnach, Wallner, or Bell. I mention Bell because you can DH 1 of your OFers if you have 4 of them worthy of those PAs. Don't care about Clemens in the OF.

My comment about the 12 OFers they'd mentioned was meant to emphasize the word "prospect." They may have a bunch of OFers between MLB and AAA, but they aren't all prospects. They aren't all guys who are going to be a part of the future. I think the next window truly opens in 2028. Not all 12 of those guys are parts that are on a 2028 and beyond timeline. So I don't care about them. I care about the guys who can be part of a an actual winning team. Prospects.

But you have to give who you identify as prospects AB's to develop and with this roster construction that is not happening.

Edit: A point of clarification, I said 12 outfielders, not prospects.  I never claimed they were all prospects.

[Bangkok Twins Fan]

11 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

In some ways it seems like the Twins may be quiet this trade deadline.

That's what I am feeling too, I may be wrong, and I hope I'm wrong, but I sense that the Twins won't make any big trades this time around. 

[chpettit19]

Just now, HarmonK03 said:

But you have to give who you identify as prospects AB's to develop and with this roster construction that is not happening.

Oh, fully agree. That's my problem with the roster construction. Has been since Tommy P took over and told us all they're going to try to win this year, but then never made any moves to actually do it.

Like I said, Larnach, Wallner, and Bell wouldn't be here. I wouldn't be letting Martin take real ABs from anyone. Or Fedko. Sabato would be gone from AAA and Gonzalez and/or Mendez would be playing 1B assuming they aren't complete and utter butchers there (I don't know, so that's entirely hypothetical). Clemens would never step foot in the OF for me. Or Kreidler. 

Jenkins, Emma, Gabby, and Mendez would be getting everyday ABs at whichever level they should be at for their development. Nobody else in the Twins organization not named Buxton would be getting ABs over them this year. Roden and Emma would've been my opening day corner OFers with Martin behind them and Wallner in the DH spot. Once Wallner flopped he'd have lost his shot at priority ABs. Jenkins, Gabby, and Mendez would've been my opening day St Paul OF if Mendez and/or Gabby didn't show any ability to play 1B. Those are the guys that'd get priority ABs for me this year. Everybody else would fill in around them as needed. Buxton obviously being the outlier amongst veteran types who'd get every AB he can handle.

[Bangkok Twins Fan]

7 hours ago, soyouresayingtheresachance said:

The drop-off from Jeffers to Caratini is immense. Alex Jackson is a nice backup.

Jackson has played very well so far, albeit in a limited number of games. Does anyone think that he COULD be a decent starting catcher?

[HarmonK03]

3 minutes ago, Bangkok Twins Fan said:

Jackson has played very well so far, albeit in a limited number of games. Does anyone think that he COULD be a decent starting catcher?

I think he is a good back up but would he be exposed the more he plays.  As much as teams need catching I would think someone would have given him a shot by now if he could.

[TopGunn#22]

Much like their season, the Twins have rolled out of the All Star Break neither "Hot" nor "Cold."  They've played at close to .500.  So there is no definitive direction the Twins have in front of them at this time.  We now come home for 3 against the Athletics and 3 against the Royals.  Bobby Witt Jr. should be healthy in time to face us.

I still think the Twins need to "thread the needle" and both buy and sell.  I'm selling on Jeffers.  He's not signing an extension with Scott Boras as his agent and Jeffers has done the Twins a solid by having a good year, raising his value to its highest ever.  We have Caratini and Jackson to finish this season.  Likewise, I'm selling Larnach, who has also done the Twins a solid by having his best season ever.  Luke Keachall's successful move to the OF has opened up the possibility of including a minor league OF not named Jenkins in a deal that returns real value.   

I would also sell on Josh Bell and Taylor Rogers (if they can get anything for Rogers) and I would commit playing time to a younger bat and a younger arm.  Maybe Zebby Matthews replaces Rogers in the pen for the stretch run.  Guys like Royce Lewis, Austin Martin or even a minor leaguer like Hill, Soto or E-Rod could be in play if the return is young, controllable, major league talent or very close to major league, and especially pitching.  Emerson Hancock is a great example.  

The Twins could make the playoffs this year.  I'm skeptical, but the chance is there.  But they are not really in a position to contend either this year or next.  It's OK to move some younger talent if the trade brings back some "better" young talent.  The Twins FO should have players identified and ranked from every team interested in their players.  They need to be strategic and targeted about the talent they want back in any deal.  

The biggest question still remains Joe Ryan.  It would be great to keep him and extend him.  But is Ryan willing to sign an extension?  

[HarmonK03]

6 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Oh, fully agree. That's my problem with the roster construction. Has been since Tommy P took over and told us all they're going to try to win this year, but then never made any moves to actually do it.

Like I said, Larnach, Wallner, and Bell wouldn't be here. I wouldn't be letting Martin take real ABs from anyone. Or Fedko. Sabato would be gone from AAA and Gonzalez and/or Mendez would be playing 1B assuming they aren't complete and utter butchers there (I don't know, so that's entirely hypothetical). Clemens would never step foot in the OF for me. Or Kreidler. 

Jenkins, Emma, Gabby, and Mendez would be getting everyday ABs at whichever level they should be at for their development. Nobody else in the Twins organization not named Buxton would be getting ABs over them this year. Roden and Emma would've been my opening day corner OFers with Martin behind them and Wallner in the DH spot. Once Wallner flopped he'd have lost his shot at priority ABs. Jenkins, Gabby, and Mendez would've been my opening day St Paul OF if Mendez and/or Gabby didn't show any ability to play 1B. Those are the guys that'd get priority ABs for me this year. Everybody else would fill in around them as needed. Buxton obviously being the outlier amongst veteran types who'd get every AB he can handle.

Question for you, I hear what you said about Tommy P. but Zoll is the one filling the roster and making these decisions.  How much do you put on him for not making changes when it sounds like he had support from ownership.  And will anything change with him in charge.  That is my biggest fear, we will just keep treading water.

[HarmonK03]

1 minute ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Bobby Witt Jr. should be healthy in time to face us.

He is on the IL, not going to face us.

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, HarmonK03 said:

Question for you, I hear what you said about Tommy P. but Zoll is the one filling the roster and making these decisions.  How much do you put on him for not making changes when it sounds like he had support from ownership.  And will anything change with him in charge.  That is my biggest fear, we will just keep treading water.

Pohlad gives him his directions. If he doesn't want them rebuilding, it doesn't matter what Zoll wants. I think the offseason was similar to after 2023 (or whatever year that was, memory not working right now) when Falvey kept saying ownership hadn't given him a budget yet. With the Pohlad family drama and kicking little bro out it put the FO on hold for most of the offseason and then changed the direction they'd been going from rebuild to compete.

None of this is to say I have any kind of huge faith in Zoll. And I have no idea what his desired strategy was. He very well may have been all for this current plan. And I don't know how good he is at convincing ownership of a direction. Lots of unknowns. I don't have faith in the entire Twins org at this point. But my default is to start at the top and let the blame trickle down from there. And the Pohlads are the top. If Zoll is awful at his job and they keep him employed, that's their fault, too.

[saviking]

Well, we either trade Jeffers or lose him. Plus we have an over abundance of outfielders. So Jeffers and a left-handed outfielder makes sense. 

 

The big question is do we part ways with Ryan now or in the off season. And what do we get for him? We have infield, out field and Cather covered soon. Maybe a couple of high level pitching prospects in the minerleague and a mid rotation reliver?