Cubs 10, Twins 1: A Game to Forget

[Cory Moen]

Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-Imagn Images

Box Score
SP: Zebby Matthews - 3 IP, 9 H, 10 R, 8 ER, 3 BB, 4 K (87 pitches, 61 pitches (70.1% strikes))
Bottom 3 WPA (via FanGraphs): Zebby Matthews (-0.35), Ryan Kreidler (-0.07), Kody Clemens/Josh Bell/Austin Martin (-0.03)

Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)

Coming out of the All-Star break, the Twins and Cubs split the first two games of the series. The Twins, looking to climb back to .500, sent Zebby Matthews to the mound to face off against the Cubs in the rubber match at Wrigley Field. The Cubs countered with lefty Shota Imanaga. Imanaga threw a scoreless top of the first inning, and it looked like Matthews might be able to pitch around a one-out Seiya Suzuki double, but hanging a breaking ball to Alex Bregman typically doesn’t end well. Bregman hit a home run to give the Cubs a 2-0 lead. 

The Cubs were able to add to their lead in the bottom of the second on a one-out single by Carson Kelly after a Pedro Ramírez double that (a theme to watch) maybe could have been caught, extending the Cubs lead to three.

Things got ugly in the bottom of the third inning, where the Cubs added four more runs. Three of them came on a Nico Hoerner triple that got past Luke Keaschall in center field. ("Triple.")

The fourth run came on a single by Ramírez, which gave the Cubs a 7-0 lead and put things on ice early. 

The Cubs offense wasn’t done, adding more runs in the bottom of the fourth against Matthews. The first four batters reached, giving the Cubs two more runs, which led to Matthews being removed from the game without getting an out in the fourth. The Cubs were able to squeak another run across, giving them a 10-run lead at the end of four innings. 

 

Those proved to be way more than enough for Imanaga, who pitched seven scoreless innings, striking out four and giving up just seven base runners.

While the first seven innings were not great for the Twins, they were able to have some success at the plate in the top of the eighth inning against reliever Phil Maton, breaking through on a Royce Lewis sacrifice fly, cutting the lead to 10-1. One other positive from the game is that the Twins bullpen threw five scoreless innings, so that is success the Twins hope will continue going forward. 

What’s Next?
The Twins head to Cleveland to face off with the Guardians in a four-game series. In Monday’s game, the Twins will send All-Star Joe Ryan (6-5, 2.85 ERA) to the mound, while the Guardians will send Tanner Bibee (3-9, 3.90 ERA).

Ryan’s most recent outing was in the All-Star Game, where he threw one scoreless inning as part of an American League shutout. Prior to the All-Star break, Ryan had two starts of seven and six innings respectively, giving up two runs over those 13 innings.

BULLPEN CHART

WED THUR FRI SAT SAT TOT Nance 0 0 25 0 0 25 Gómez 0 0 22 0 0 22 Morris 0 0 14 0 0 14 Rogers 0 0 2 0 0 2 Rojas 0 0 0 18 0 18 Go 0 0 0 0 23 23 Adams 0 0 0 0 45 45 Funderburk 0 0 0 0 14 14 Paredes 0 0 0 40 0 40

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[thelanges5]

Twins are 37-33 against RH starters and 12-18 against LH starters. 
 

They are now behind the Red Sox, Mariners, Orioles, for the last wildcard spot. Big series coming up in Cleveland. 

[wesnewy]

I bet Zebby's agent will be hitting up whoever does the official scoring for the MLB within the week to change the "triple" that Keaschall gave up to get is ERA knocked down a couple of points 

[ashbury]

2 minutes ago, thelanges5 said:

Twins are 37-33 against RH starters and 12-18 against LH starters. 
 

They are now behind the Red Sox, Mariners, Orioles, for the last wildcard spot. Big series coming up in Cleveland. 

Their best chance to make it a post-season worth taking part in would be to win the division outright.  Could be easier than getting the wild-card.

All moot if .500 is too big a hurdle.

[wesnewy]

3 minutes ago, thelanges5 said:

Twins are 37-33 against RH starters and 12-18 against LH starters. 
 

They are now behind the Red Sox, Mariners, Orioles, for the last wildcard spot. Big series coming up in Cleveland. 

Both the Sox and the O's are on pretty long win streaks. Do we think there is any chance they can regress to the mean? I guess the Twins can too, but there is still hope that those other teams drop some games, no?

[Peter]

Horrible series-flush it!!! Cleveland is next!!! Need to win 3 of 4 worse case scenario is to get split then sweep A’s royals-cubs are 💪💪💪twins will bounce back from this-as I said twins will win Central division!!! 

[Patzky]

7 minutes ago, wesnewy said:

Both the Sox and the O's are on pretty long win streaks. Do we think there is any chance they can regress to the mean? I guess the Twins can too, but there is still hope that those other teams drop some games, no?

The Yankees are, but the Tigers, Orioles and Red Sox are all white hot. That's the danger in falling behind multiple teams. They won't all tank simultaneously. Twins Guards Mariners Jays had better watch out.. I'd lump the swooning Rays in too, but they built a huge lead

 

 

[TCanWins]

I'm always of the belief that if you have to rely on other teams dropping games, you're probably not good enough to make it.

 

Some positives with the bullpen's efforts, at least the front office will get a good picture of who can perform against the top teams and who could be traded to give some young players an opportunity to step up.

[wesnewy]

Unfortunately, now we will also want to start paying attention to season series tiebreakers now if we want a shot at the playoffs. 😭

[TheLeviathan]

May the baseball gods be kind to us and cause more losses.  Save us from our own hubris.

[wesnewy]

6 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

May the baseball gods be kind to us and cause more losses.  Save us from our own hubris.

Because as much of a gamble relying on prospects is, I'm always afraid we will send the wrong one.

[TheLeviathan]

1 minute ago, wesnewy said:

Because as much of a gamble relying on prospects is, I'm always afraid we will send the wrong one.

I honestly care less about trading some prospects.  As @ashburypointed out in the other thread, there is an OF glut we almost certainly have to trade from no matter what. 

What I care more about is losing assets (Larnach, Jeffers, Ryan) with nothing to show in return.

[wesnewy]

2 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

I honestly care less about trading some prospects.  As @ashburypointed out in the other thread, there is an OF glut we almost certainly have to trade from no matter what. 

What I care more about is losing assets (Larnach, Jeffers, Ryan) with nothing to show in return.

That is very true the last thing I want to see (along with probs a lot of other twins fans) is players of those caliber get sent of for table scraps

[Wedman13]

47 minutes ago, wesnewy said:

Unfortunately, now we will also want to start paying attention to season series tiebreakers now if we want a shot at the playoffs. 😭

I would say fortunately, not unfortunately..

the team is mediocre but scrapping.  Hate to be negative but Rocco was a bad hire that sucked the life out of, everything.  Good guy but it just was not fun baseball  now, we're near ,500, with a payroll much less, and have optimism in players almost ready.

im excited

[Hunter4848]

Its time to start trading off parts

[Wedman13]

I agree.  But what parts for what?  I'm probably wrong but think 2028+ could be special.  I do think we need arms 

[tony&rodney]

A game to forget is correct. Leave it at that.

[Mike Sixel]

15 minutes ago, Wedman13 said:

I agree.  But what parts for what?  I'm probably wrong but think 2028+ could be special.  I do think we need arms 

Get arms. Even Wallner for a flyer makes sense. 

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, wesnewy said:

Both the Sox and the O's are on pretty long win streaks. Do we think there is any chance they can regress to the mean? I guess the Twins can too, but there is still hope that those other teams drop some games, no?

Certainly there’s a chance for regression.

Red Sox & O’s have to play Yankees & Rays………… & each other (10 more times)……… those circumstances will help keep them around .500. Red Sox have won 13 in a row …….. a correction will take place soon, at least a moderate correction.

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, Wedman13 said:

I would say fortunately, not unfortunately..

the team is mediocre but scrapping.  Hate to be negative but Rocco was a bad hire that sucked the life out of, everything.  Good guy but it just was not fun baseball  now, we're near ,500, with a payroll much less, and have optimism in players almost ready.

im excited

Three games after the 2025 All-Star break, the Twins were 48-51.

Now in 2026 three games after the break, they're 49-51.

Glad you're having fun and are excited.

[Church of Kreidler]

Between the series against the White Sox, and this one with the Cubs... I'm just glad Chicago baseball is done for the year!!!

...

What do you mean we have to go back in September?!

[Patzky]

39 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Get arms. Even Wallner for a flyer makes sense. 

We had one bad arm but nine bad batters today. One bad arm and eight bad batters (and base runners) yesterday. 

[Wedman13]

12 minutes ago, Patzky said:

We had one bad arm but nine bad batters today. One bad arm and eight bad batters (and base runners) yesterday. 

Be a bit fair, which you always are.  The Twins scoring hasn't been  big issue this year.  162 games is a long time....  each game matters - I get it - but there's a lot to be excited for.  And no, I'm not T Pohlad or Falvey :)

[Mike Sixel]

25 minutes ago, Patzky said:

We had one bad arm but nine bad batters today. One bad arm and eight bad batters (and base runners) yesterday. 

I'm not sure I understand your point? I suggested trading Wallner for a flyer minor league pitcher..

[wesnewy]

15 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm not sure I understand your point? I suggested trading Wallner for a flyer minor league pitcher..

I think he was saying specifically with today’s game, one extra arm wouldn’t have changed the game as much as better bats.

[Wedman13]

10 minutes ago, wesnewy said:

I think he was saying specifically with today’s game, one extra arm wouldn’t have changed the game as much as better bats.

I understood the same.  But did we need someone to hit 3 grand slams?  It was 10-1 or something.  It makes for good talk, but it's  baseball.  Its why we endure the greatness and misery :)

[knothole61]

A modest proposal: maybe the Twins could package Larnach (keep Jeffers!), Wallner, and Zebby who is out of options unfortunately, for a #3 or #4 quality starter? Matthews has, I feel, become a black hole in the rotation and we cant afford to be non-competitive every fifth game. 

[HarmonK03]

4 hours ago, knothole61 said:

A modest proposal: maybe the Twins could package Larnach (keep Jeffers!), Wallner, and Zebby who is out of options unfortunately, for a #3 or #4 quality starter? Matthews has, I feel, become a black hole in the rotation and we cant afford to be non-competitive every fifth game. 

Matthews has started 12 games and 6 of them he has given up two or less runs while going for at least 6 innings. He has had three blow ups which he needs to improve.  But for a #4 pitcher which is what he is currently, those are pretty good numbers and he is averaging just under 6 innings per start.  Do you want Sim back instead, I will take Matthews over that all day.  He has 37 career starts, I still think that he can continue to improve and show that July is a blip.  

[Patzky]

11 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm not sure I understand your point? I suggested trading Wallner for a flyer minor league pitcher..

Yeah it's vague but the lack or any timely hits or even any runners the last two games was responsible for the loss as much as two crappy starts. 

[Wedman13]

1 hour ago, Patzky said:

Yeah it's vague but the lack or any timely hits or even any runners the last two games was responsible for the loss as much as two crappy starts. 

Just opinion but it's why baseball sucks, yet awesome.  A game built on negativity.  I don't have numbers but aren't the Twins near the top in BA with RISP?  But as fans we see the outs more often than not.

on the broader point, I'm really curious what MW would bring back in a trade.  I think he's worth a gamble