Could Joe Ryan Realistically Win the AL Cy Young?

[Sam Caulder]

Image courtesy of Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

Joe Ryan is currently in the midst of a career year.

Through 87 ⅓ innings this season, the Twins right-hander owns a 2.99 ERA along with an even 1.00 WHIP. He's been one of the best starting pitchers in the American League, and it feels like he's only getting better as the season goes on. Ever since Ryan's May 3rd start against Boston, when he was pulled after just nine pitches, he's been on an absolute heater.

Across his last eight starts, Ryan has allowed just 13 earned runs over 48 ⅔ innings. During that span, he's struck out 59 batters while issuing only eight walks. The underlying numbers are just as impressive. Ryan's 30.3% strikeout rate over those eight starts ranks third among all American League starters, trailing only Logan Gilbert and Reid Detmers. He's missing bats at an elite rate, limiting free passes, and consistently giving the Twins quality innings every time he takes the mound.

At some point, it becomes impossible to ignore. And it's time we give Ryan the respect he deserves. Coming into this season, the general consensus surrounding Ryan was that he was a very good pitcher. A strong No. 2 starter on a playoff-caliber team, but not necessarily an ace.

The fact of the matter is that Joe Ryan is an ace, and the rest of the baseball world seems to be catching on as well. According to FanDuel Sportsbook, Ryan currently owns the fifth-best odds to win the American League Cy Young Award. Only three Twins pitchers have ever won a Cy Young Award: Jim Perry in 1970, Frank Viola in 1988, and Johan Santana in both 2004 and 2006.

It's been two decades since a Twins pitcher last took home the honor. But if Ryan continues throwing the ball the way he has recently, he's going to build a very strong case. Looking at the four names currently ahead of him in the betting odds, it's easy to understand why they're there.

Cam Schlittler sits as the current frontrunner, followed by Dylan Cease, Drew Rasmussen, and Jacob deGrom. All four are having excellent seasons and deserve to be part of the conversation. That doesn't mean Ryan can't pass them, though.

Cease's odds are boosted in large part by his American League-leading 110 strikeouts. Rasmussen has built his case around a sparkling 2.59 ERA. Both numbers are incredibly impressive. Still, I'd be willing to bet there's at least some regression coming. Cease's 36% strikeout rate is an absurd number to maintain over a full season, while Rasmussen's ERA is sitting at a level that's difficult for almost any pitcher to sustain for six months.

That doesn't mean either pitcher is going to suddenly fall off a cliff. But the gap between their current numbers and Ryan's may not be nearly as large by the end of September as it appears today. The toughest pitcher for Ryan to overcome will likely be Schlittler. The Yankees right-hander has been phenomenal, posting a 1.71 ERA while racking up 109 strikeouts. Even if those numbers come back to earth a bit, they'll still likely remain among the best in the American League.

Schlittler is going to be tough to catch. But at the same time, if Ryan's last eight starts are any indication of what we'll get for the rest of the season, he's pitching as well as anyone in baseball.

He's working deep into games, he’s posting gaudy strikeout and very low walk totals, and consistently putting the Twins in position to win. Three textbook characteristics of an ace.

 

What also deserves mentioning is the team context involved in all of this. If the race ends up neck-and-neck, would voters give the edge to the pitcher playing for the better team? Paul Skenes won the National League Cy Young Award last season despite pitching for a Pirates team that won just 71 games, so team success certainly isn't a deciding factor. But if Ryan and Schlittler, for example, finish with nearly identical numbers and the Yankees win 20 more games than the Twins, would that influence some voters? Maybe, maybe not. It's impossible to know until ballots are submitted.

But there's also another wrinkle worth considering. What if Ryan gets traded this summer? His value is likely at an all-time high right now. If a contending team is willing to pay the price associated with acquiring a true frontline starter, his Cy Young outlook could change dramatically for any number of reasons.

For one, Ryan has historically been better at Target Field than he has on the road. A move to a less pitcher-friendly environment could negatively impact his numbers over the final few months of the season. There's also the possibility that he gets traded out of the American League altogether. If that happened, he'd suddenly find himself competing against National League candidates like Jacob Misiorowski, Cristopher Sánchez, Skenes, and several others. That would create an entirely different set of obstacles.

History isn't particularly favorable to pitchers changing teams in the middle of a Cy Young campaign. Only one pitcher has ever won a Cy Young Award during a season in which he was traded–that was Rick Sutcliffe in 1984, going from the Cleveland Indians to the Chicago Cubs. So could it happen? Sure. But if Joe Ryan is going to win a Cy Young Award this season, I think his path is much cleaner as a member of the Twins than it would be elsewhere.

Either way, there's still roughly three-and-a-half months of baseball remaining before any individual awards are handed out. A lot can change between now and then. But with the way he's pitched over the last two months, Joe Ryan absolutely belongs in Cy Young conversations. And if he keeps this up, the Twins could have their first Cy Young winner in 20 years.

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[D.C Twins]

Yes.

[tony&rodney]

Health is always the primary concern when it comes to pitchers. A healthy focused Joe Ryan is a tough opponent. Defense behind Ryan is also important. We have seen the Twins begin to shift towards better defenders and if any additional improvements are coming it can only help the pitchers and Ryan.

[bean5302]

Joe Ryan Ace! Sure. Every year until the second half. Ryan's xFIP is 3.43. He's certainly better than I expected him to become, but I'll continue to be highly skeptical of his "Ace" status he earns.

Or Buxton MVP. 

Since Twins fans pretty much don't know what an Cy Young or MVP candidate actually looks like. 

[mnfireman]

45 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Since Twins fans pretty much don't know what an Cy Young or MVP candidate actually looks like. 

Maybe you can explain it to us, like we're 5...

[Road trip]

57 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

 

Since Twins fans pretty much don't know what an Cy Young or MVP candidate actually looks like. 

Yeah, nobody here remembers Santana, Viola, Mauer, Morneau, Kirby, or Carew.

Heck....just a few years ago Maeda finished 2nd in the Cy Young voting.

[offensive_loons_fan]

The other guys' numbers are likely to regress to the mean somewhat...but so are Joe's, honestly. Love him to death but there's no reason to think the other guys are outperforming their baseline but that this is now just Default Joe.

Hope this is his new norm, though!

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, mnfireman said:

Maybe you can explain it to us, like we're 5...

If you need me to explain it to you, you won't have a good point of reference.

1 hour ago, Road trip said:

Yeah, nobody here remembers Santana, Viola, Mauer, Morneau, Kirby, or Carew.

Heck....just a few years ago Maeda finished 2nd in the Cy Young voting.

Correct.

Age based on when players were good:

Carew - You're in your 70s+
Puckett, Viola - You're probably upper 50s+.
Santana, Morneau - You're in your 40s.
Mauer - Upper 30s

Twins demographics are parents with little kids in their early 20s-30s. The average ticket buyer might have attended games to watched Santana, Morneau and Mauer in their prime. Maybe. 

It's been a LONG time since the Twins had a legitimate ace. Santana was traded over 18 years ago. Morneau's prime in a Twins jersey ended 16 years ago. Puckett last put on a game day jersey over 30 years ago. Viola 36 years ago. Fans of the game who understand dynamics generally start in their 20s+. Tack that onto the time frame and yep.

A big portion of Twins fans have never watched a game played by one of those players, let alone played in their prime.

[Western SD Fan]

I think it is currently Schlitter's to lose at the moment.  His performance has been great, and he pitches for the Yankees, which always gives that extra boost that is hard for other contenders to overcome when all things are equal.  As for Ryan potentially being traded affecting his Cy Young contention, if he stays in the AL, his candidacy likely boosts as he will be pitching for a playoff team down the stretch.  If he is traded to the NL, he likely won't be able to compete with the horses in the NL.  Joe Ryan definitely has a chance to win it.  It would help if the Twins finished near .500 (within 5 games) and stayed in the playoff race until near the end of the season.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

The Joe Ryan Experience is unique. He is so animated in a  good way. He smiles on the mound. He talks to himself a lot. He does need to avoid shouting a specific expletive  while pitching, due to the thousands of kids who will want to  be like Joe and many of us older folks find it offensive.  I'll get off my soapbox and go take my pre-game nap now in preparation for tonight's  game against Dem Bums, formerly from Brooklyn.

[Jacksson]

Not a Chance.

[Linus]

Probably the biggest obstacle is that in past years Joe has faded a little in the second half. “Deep into games” is obviously relative because he is right around six innings per start. I’m not going to get into the ace discussion until someone actually defines it but I do think Joe is a fine pitcher but not in the top handful. 

[mnfireman]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

If you need me to explain it to you, you won't have a good point of reference.

Yeah, your arrogance is showing just a little....

[mickster]

3 hours ago, Road trip said:

Yeah, nobody here remembers Santana, Viola, Mauer, Morneau, Kirby, or Carew.

Heck....just a few years ago Maeda finished 2nd in the Cy Young voting.

I think Gray was in the top 3 as well

[ashbury]

56 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

The Joe Ryan Experience is unique. He is so animated in a  good way. He smiles on the mound. He talks to himself a lot. He does need to avoid shouting a specific expletive  while pitching, due to the thousands of kids who will want to  be like Joe and many of us older folks find it offensive.  I'll get off my soapbox and go take my pre-game nap now in preparation for tonight's  game against Dem Bums, formerly from Brooklyn.

Wait.  They moved?

[ashbury]

4 hours ago, mnfireman said:

Maybe you can explain it to us, like we're 5...

Take a look at who actually wins the Cy.  Last year it was a guy with an ERA of 2.21.  The previous year it was the same guy with 2.39. The year before that, another guy with 2.63. The year before, a guy with 1.75.  And they all do it typically across a greater number of innings pitched than Joe is currently on a pace for.

The other league awards their Cy's to guys with similar credentials.

Blame the Twins defense or the weather or the phases of the moon.  But Joe's very good ERA of 2.99 doesn't put him in the running most years, and this year there is likewise someone else running a full run lower per game, which is huge.

It's the halfway mark, and maybe Joe has another gear he can shift into.  But right now he's in line to get at most courtesy votes far down-ballot.