Should the Twins make Ryan Jeffers the Qualifying Offer?

[chpettit19]

7 minutes ago, amjgt said:

Here’s my take…

It’ll either be a Comp A pick or nothing.

Because the only way Jeffers rejects the $23M is if his management team thinks he’ll get something like 4/70 or 3/60.

If they think it’s looking more like 3/45, then they’ll accept it and hit the open market in 2027 free and clear of the QO stuff.

I didn’t mention it in my first post, but a potential MLB payroll floor (and teams needing to spend) could play a part in this as well.

That's fair. I think there's an incredibly small chance he gets those deals. If he's given the QO, I don't think there's much of a chance he doesn't sign it.

The CBA could change all of this. The MLBPA wants the QO to go away. Floor, cap, team control length, all kinds of things could change and none of this will matter anymore. But, based on what we have in place right now, if Jeffers is offered 23 mil for 1 year, I can't imagine he doesn't jump on it.

[DJL44]

I think Jeffers could get 4 years, $50M as a free agent, but $3-5M less if he has a QO attached. $23M up front and a chance to go back on the market is going to be easy to accept.

I don’t know why people would assume a salary cap and floor would increase free agent spending. The level of total spend proposed by MLB is lower than the current overall spend. We will see the teams above the cap scrambling to dump contracts on the teams below the minimum. That will swallow up nearly all of the available dollars. The lockout will keep teams from spending until the last minute. Next season could be the worst year ever for MLB free agents.

[HeresWaldo]

53 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

How do you plan to build the team around him? If the CBA forces the Twins to up their payroll by 50-75 mil in 2027 (very real possibility that a floor of some sort is implemented, but very well may not go into effect until 2028 or 2029 to give teams a chance to adjust), an argument could be made for having 50+ million tied up in Correa, Buxton, and the catching tandem. If not, there is no way paying Ryan Jeffers the highest catcher salary in baseball is good for the Twins 2027 team. Having 30 mil wrapped up in the catcher position for a team with a 100 mil payroll, 10 of which goes to a guy not even on the team, is not a good use of resources. At all.

Well personally I'm skeptical that's actually going to happen. But assuming a cap/floor system survives negotiations four things are worth keeping in mind. First, I think we're getting hung up on the "highest paid catcher" aspect here. It's technically true, but a QO isn't even a top 30 contract in the league by AAV, so it shouldn't cripple a team's ability to spend. Second, with a cap system in place it will actually be advantageous to front load some mid tier contracts because too much long-term dead money on the books later could hurt more than big up-front dollars. You can't do this with every contract of course, but it's not inherently bad to do once or twice. Third, on the point of "building a team around him" I get what you're saying but I don't think that's the goal. I view him as a high end regular borderline All Star type of player. Roughly 20 million for one year of a guy like that is about the normal price. Fourth, I know this is going to sound laughable given who owns our team, but they don't *have* to stop spending when they hit the floor, and there's absolutely no way they hit the cap before the end of the 2027 when he'd be a free agent again anyway. To me the question is where do we find a catcher better than Ryan Jeffers for the 2027 season? I don't see one anywhere so I'd happily overpay him while avoiding any long-term commitment. 

[DJL44]

48 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

It, unfortunately, also sets the bar for trade negotiations. I think trading him is the right thing to do, but I expect people will be upset with the return. When teams throw out offers the Twins can't say they need more than a late 1st round pick in value because the other teams know they aren't getting that. So the bar is set at an early third round pick type value. Why they should've traded him in the offseason.

Every single contending team can fit Jeffers into their roster. Demand will be high and supply is quite low. Someone will bet on Jeffers hitting bombs for their team in October.

[Western SD Fan]

This decision was essentially made when they signed Caratini to a two-year deal.  There was an expectation that Jeffers would be traded and Caratini would have to be the primary catcher for the remainder of this season and next season.  The anticipated QO amount does nothing to change that expectation.  The only thing that has really changed is we found out who Caratini really is as a hitter and it's unacceptable and still too far away for Tait or Diaw to come up.  I think they lost their trade window to get any real value.  Even if Jeffers comes back prior to the deadline, I don't see him tearing the cover off the ball prior to the deadline.  A team trading for him would have to take that risk and that will affect his trade value.  He likely wouldn't sign it, but a high incentive contract which, if performed, would be an overpay.  Say, a 3-35M deal with incentives to get up to a 15 to 16M AAV would potentially be fair and still a reasonable contract that you could trade if needed.

[Blyleven2011]

5 hours ago, Bangkok Twins Fan said:

At $23 million, Jeffers would be the highest-paid catcher in the world, by a wide margin. 

I'm a bit naive about the economics of baseball these days, but that strikes me as an insane salary for a player like Jeffers. 

My thoughts exactly ...

The qualifying offer is to high of a price for jeffters value  , twins won't even consider it IMO  ...

But we are definitely in  bind at the catcher position , caratini and Jackson have been terrible behind the plate and can't throw anyone out srealing ....

[DJL44]

2 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

My thoughts exactly ...

The qualifying offer is to high of a price for jeffters value  , twins won't even consider it IMO  ...

But we are definitely in  bind at the catcher position , caratini and Jackson have been terrible behind the plate and can't throw anyone out srealing ....

Don’t lump Jackson in with Caratini. Jackson has a pop time of 1.8 seconds (very good) versus 2.06 for Caratini (nearly the worst in MLB).

[chpettit19]

34 minutes ago, HeresWaldo said:

Well personally I'm skeptical that's actually going to happen. But assuming a cap/floor system survives negotiations four things are worth keeping in mind. First, I think we're getting hung up on the "highest paid catcher" aspect here. It's technically true, but a QO isn't even a top 30 contract in the league by AAV, so it shouldn't cripple a team's ability to spend. Second, with a cap system in place it will actually be advantageous to front load some mid tier contracts because too much long-term dead money on the books later could hurt more than big up-front dollars. You can't do this with every contract of course, but it's not inherently bad to do once or twice. Third, on the point of "building a team around him" I get what you're saying but I don't think that's the goal. I view him as a high end regular borderline All Star type of player. Roughly 20 million for one year of a guy like that is about the normal price. Fourth, I know this is going to sound laughable given who owns our team, but they don't *have* to stop spending when they hit the floor, and there's absolutely no way they hit the cap before the end of the 2027 when he'd be a free agent again anyway. To me the question is where do we find a catcher better than Ryan Jeffers for the 2027 season? I don't see one anywhere so I'd happily overpay him while avoiding any long-term commitment. 

I'm not assuming there'll be a cap system in place, I'm saying it's maybe the only way the Twins significantly up payroll next year.

"Highest paid catcher" matters because the QO being so much higher than any other catcher tells you it simply isn't smart (or at least no team has ever felt it was smart) to pay a catcher that much. Paying guys more than they are worth is not good resource management. Especially if you're a team with a limited budget. Catchers simply aren't worth that much. Not even peak JT Realmuto who was significantly better than Jeffers.

We don't know what is or isn't advantageous for contracts in a hypothetical baseball cap/floor system until we know the rules that surround that system. 

No, the normal price for a "high end regular borderline All Star type of" catcher is not 20 million. That matters. The cost for an All Star SS or CF is different than the cost of an All Star 1B or 3B which is different than the cost for an All Star C. His position matters.

I don't follow the logic of "building a team around him" not being your goal and caring about finding a better catcher than Jeffers. If the team as a whole isn't the goal then why care about having a better catcher than Jeffers? If you aren't trying to build a winner, thus caring about the team around Jeffers, why care about overpaying for Jeffers just so you have the best catcher available to you?

[chpettit19]

35 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Every single contending team can fit Jeffers into their roster. Demand will be high and supply is quite low. Someone will bet on Jeffers hitting bombs for their team in October.

That doesn't mean teams will just ignore what he's worth. There are always guys on the block that every single contending team can fit into their roster that don't get traded at the deadline. I have no doubt the Twins could trade Jeffers at the deadline. My doubt is that they get anything crazy back. They have no leverage now that he's hurt, with an injury that is known to hurt offensive numbers (especially power) even after it's healed, and he's a rental player. Will somebody want him? Absolutely. But at a certain cost.

[WarPath1211]

1 hour ago, amjgt said:

I didn’t mention it in my first post, but a potential MLB payroll floor (and teams needing to spend) could play a part in this as well.

This I think is the big unknown here, and makes me wary about saying definitively that any path is "best".

Additionally I think Jeffers, assuming he comes back healthy and effective, is going to get a lot of interest this offseason simply because there are not really many proven position players who will be free agents. Jeffers looks like he will be a top 10, or maybe even a top 5, FA bat after the 2026 season.

If teams have money to spend, either because of a new salary floor or because they are just looking to improve their offense by spending, there won't be many options. You could do a lot worse than Jeffers, a guy who can hit fairly well, can play a passable catcher, and won't be 30 until the middle of the 2027 season. So there might be enough of a market for Jeffers to the point where accepting the QO isn't a slam dunk for him.

[Hunter4848]

5 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Another article highlighting the absolute failure of the front office to extend his contract years ago.

Bold to assume Jeffers would want to stay with this joke of an organization 

[amjgt]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

I don’t know why people would assume a salary cap and floor would increase free agent spending. The level of total spend proposed by MLB is lower than the current overall spend. We will see the teams above the cap scrambling to dump contracts on the teams below the minimum. That will swallow up nearly all of the available dollars. The lockout will keep teams from spending until the last minute. Next season could be the worst year ever for MLB free agents.

There is ZERO chance that any teams will be forced to dump contracts to get cap ceiling compliant. None. Zero. Zilch. 

It just isn't going to happen.

a) There's a 100% chance that if there's a cap there will be multiple years to get compliant (probably for the floor as well), and b) a 95+% chance that any existing contract gets some sort of grandfathering in, no matter how long it is. 

[DJL44]

5 minutes ago, amjgt said:

There is ZERO chance that any teams will be forced to dump contracts to get cap ceiling compliant. None. Zero. Zilch. 

It just isn't going to happen.

a) There's a 100% chance that if there's a cap there will be multiple years to get compliant (probably for the floor as well), and b) a 95+% chance that any existing contract gets some sort of grandfathering in, no matter how long it is. 

Then there is also zero chance they enforce the floor

[TopGunn#22]

If the FO was serious they should have extended Jeffers last off-season.  I can't see them doing it now at the price.  Just too "un-Pohlad like."  

The best case scenario is he hits just enough in the time he comes off the IL before the trade deadline that the Twins can extort a pretty good deal for him.  As to next season, I'm fine with bringing in someone like Stephenson or Heim if the price is right.  In 2028, the Twins will probably have Lackey and Tait.  That may be the best catching tandem they've had since 2006-Mauer & Redmond.  

2027 will probably be a fractured season anyway and one the Twins don't contend in either, although with a healthy Lopez and if the young SP's continue to improve, good pitching is the ultimate equalizer.  Just look what the White Sox young pitching has done for them to date. 

Another thought for 2027:  We've been getting a BARGAIN for Byron Buxton up to this point.  Once the Lockout/Strike is resolved and if there is indeed a cap and floor, I'd like to see Byron Buxton get a brand new deal that pays him something like $90 million for 3 seasons.  He's earned it.  

[chpettit19]

25 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

If the FO was serious they should have extended Jeffers last off-season.  I can't see them doing it now at the price.  Just too "un-Pohlad like."  

The best case scenario is he hits just enough in the time he comes off the IL before the trade deadline that the Twins can extort a pretty good deal for him.  As to next season, I'm fine with bringing in someone like Stephenson or Heim if the price is right.  In 2028, the Twins will probably have Lackey and Tait.  That may be the best catching tandem they've had since 2006-Mauer & Redmond.  

2027 will probably be a fractured season anyway and one the Twins don't contend in either, although with a healthy Lopez and if the young SP's continue to improve, good pitching is the ultimate equalizer.  Just look what the White Sox young pitching has done for them to date. 

Another thought for 2027:  We've been getting a BARGAIN for Byron Buxton up to this point.  Once the Lockout/Strike is resolved and if there is indeed a cap and floor, I'd like to see Byron Buxton get a brand new deal that pays him something like $90 million for 3 seasons.  He's earned it.  

If the new CBA forces the Twins to spend they should absolutely not pay Buxton more than he makes them and they should absolutely not pay Jeffers $23 million. This is their chance to actually go get some players and compete. Spending more on guys than they're worth just to get cap compliant would be an awful result. If Buxton forces their hand, fine. But don't pay him just because. And based on his stance so far, I'd bet he'd be ok taking his 15 mil and being surrounded by better players. Wasting cap money would be a terrible way to start the new era of more competitive opportunity.