Taj Bradley Might Be Minnesota Twins' Ace Starter—and Not By Default, Either

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of © Mitch Stringer-Imagn Images

Joe Ryan struggled Wednesday night against the Royals. That had something to do with the weather, and it's not worth worrying much about him; the 2026 Twins give you plenty of more urgent things about which to stress out. However, as Taj Bradley takes the mound for the series finale on Thursday afternoon, he does so with a window opening for him. This guy might just be the Twins' new ace, and not because Ryan had a minor wobble or because Pablo López is hurt. He might have the upside to compete for the American League Cy Young Award—not in a few years, but right now.

He could, of course, take it on the chin Thursday and make this sound quite foolish. But before he starts, let's take a moment to consider just how real the possibility is. Bradley struck out nine in his season debut Saturday in Baltimore. He did it with a four-pitch mix that has undergone some slight but important improvements since last year. His fastball sat at 97.4 miles per hour, touching 99. Despite his high arm slot, he showed impressive depth on his splitter, and what was previously a cutter has been reengineered. It's now a true slider, serving as a halfway point between his high-rise heater and a sharp knuckle-curve. All four of his offerings rated better than average, by a healthy margin, according to Baseball Prospectus's StuffPro metric.

The values that make up the scale on the left are runs per 100 pitches thrown, so (for instance) for every 100 heaters like the ones he threw Saturday Bradley throws, he reduces the expected number of runs an opponent will score by 0.7. As you can see, both the splitter and that cutter-turned-slider are more than a run better than average per 100 thrown.

It wasn't like this last year, or the year before that. Stuff this dominant is new, and it's special. Here are his pitch-by-pitch StuffPro values since 2024.

	Season StuffPro
Pitch Type	2024	2025	2026
4-Seam Fastball	-0.2	-0.1	-0.7
Cutter/Slider	-0.3	-0.5	-1.3
Curveball	0.2	-0.2	-0.4
Splitter	-0.9	-0.1	-1.4
Sinker		0.4

It's not just about Bradley improving, though. Only one starter has a better StuffPro so far this season, and it's Brewers superstar Jacob Misiorowski. Bradley can't quite hope to keep pace with him, but he's ahead of everyone else in the league—at least through one start.

It's a bit more plausible that Bradley could perform the way Dylan Cease or Hunter Brown do over a full season, and that would be plenty. Cease and Brown are both high-slot right-handed hurlers with arsenals similar to Bradley's. If you wanted to distinguish them, you'd be forced to admit that Cease throws even harder and that Brown has a plus sinker, but you could also note that Bradley's splitter is better than any form of changeup thrown by either of the other two. Cease got a $200-million contract from the Blue Jays this winter. Brown finished third in AL Cy Young Award voting in 2025. Bradley, 25, isn't even arbitration-eligible yet, so if he emerges as a credible ace, it would be franchise-altering for the Twins. 

This is a bit of a López situation. Bradley doesn't quite have the same demonstrated upside, but he's young; he's under long-term team control; and being with the Twins has already made him better. Don't scoff too confidently at the notion that he could be the next López, or that the Twins might move to extend him now, on a deal even more team-friendly than López's. Of course, if he gives up six runs against the Royals in a few minutes, do feel free to mock me, but there's real evidence of a breakout afoot.

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[jmlease1]

I'm a big fan of Bradley's. the ceiling is pretty high, but the consistency hasn't been there. If the tweaks to his pitch mix (improving the splitter, shifting the cutter to a slider) take hold and let him find that consistency, then he could have a very good season. Can't say I've been sad to see his velocity playing up a bit too.

He did some good things in the first start, and it would be great to see him build off it.

[nicksaviking]

I was skeptical, I thought three years as a starter was long enough to make a decision on him. Control has to tighten up but so far so good and I'm looking forward to be proven wrong.

[rdehring]

Have said all spring that if this is the start of the Twins rebuilding into a competitive team, one of Abel or Bradley must take that last step into becoming someone comparable to Ryan.  A legit Ace or very good #2.  Don't know which, if either will take that step, but Bradley has looked awfully good in his first one-and-a half starts. 

[mikelink45]

too early 

[twinstalker]

I've owned him the last few years in various leagues but I couldn't justify keeping him, and yet he was popular enough I couldn't draft him back this year.  That's okay, the guys I have are better.  The only Twins I care to have at all are Jenkins and Keaschall, and that's throughout the system.  Strike that.  Zebby is also going to be real good if the Twins don't screw him up.

[purplesoldier4u]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

I was skeptical, I thought three years as a starter was long enough to make a decision on him. Control has to tighten up but so far so good and I'm looking forward to be proven wrong.

Sheesh! The guy looked brilliant this afternoon! Blowing Witt away with 100 MPH was sweet!

[jmlease1]

34 minutes ago, purplesoldier4u said:

Sheesh! The guy looked brilliant this afternoon! Blowing Witt away with 100 MPH was sweet!

Hard to complain about 6 shutout today. I hope this is the real Taj Bradley, they guy they hoped for when they traded for him. that would be very fun.

[JD-TWINS]

Jax for Bradley in the big Deadline Sell-Off - “terrible trade” …….. some here were hoping Jax might convert back to a starter a year ago ……. Bradley has the PITCHES, just a matter of composure and mixing what he has to keep guys off balance. Certainly hopeful after 2 outings in ‘26! ………..not positive, but I think they gained at least 2, & maybe 3 more years of control with Bradley v. Jax.

[Linus]

The talent is there - I don’t think anybody would argue with that. He’s now throwing enough quality strikes to really turn the tables. Hopefully he keeps it up as he has the potential to be pretty dominant. 

[bunsen82]

The Twins have Bradley for 26-29,  for 2 years remaining of Jax this appears to be absolutely a slam dunk in the Twins favor.   Jax is still Jekyl and hyde for the Rays.   Bradley has put in the work both on the mental side and the physical side.   Doing the homework and understanding how his arm slot affects the velocity, plane and effectiveness of each pitch, and tweaking each of the 4 pitches he is utilizing and bringing his split back to the fore front.   He is also doing a game plan on the hitters which he has never done prior to coming to the Twins.  There was one batter today that I am sure the game plan was to pitch him inside.   He threw 2 inside pitches past him and then jammed him for a weak out.  He also put on 5-10 lbs and stayed in the Twin Cities to work on his craft.   He put in the effort that it requires to be a big league pitcher,  and the results show.  

The stuff in his 1st outing was the 2nd best of any pitcher.  Today not quite as good,  but overall a dominant performance that gave the Twins a win they so desperately needed.   His bugaboo has always been the blow-up start.  There is still a risk of that,   but right now I think the Rays are really regretting this trade,  their fans already are on public forums.    

Now Matthew this article seems quite the turn around when you had one article after the trade deadline where you graded the trades and gave the Bradley for Jax trade a C-  stating "Bradley was once a hot name, but he’s struggled with a 4.70 ERA over 350+ MLB innings. Jax had 2.5 years of control left and could have drawn more in the offseason. His reported trade request might’ve sped up the timeline to Minnesota’s detriment."  You also called him a bust after a handful of starts last year.  Its amazing how fickle fans and writers can be.   

[Dawgzilla]

One positive for the Twins is their depth of starting pitching (when all are healthy).  Imagine a healthy staff of Lopez, Ryan, Bradley, SWR, and Abel, let alone Festa and (can't remember decent pitcher who pitched late last season but us in AAA now...leave Ober out).  That rotation is grade A.  If they can keep those, and they stay healthy, then they actually spend money defensively/offensively....look out!  But, Twins ownership spends on the dime instead of on the dollar...never mind!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Linus]

49 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

The Twins have Bradley for 26-29,  for 2 years remaining of Jax this appears to be absolutely a slam dunk in the Twins favor.   Jax is still Jekyl and hyde for the Rays.   Bradley has put in the work both on the mental side and the physical side.   Doing the homework and understanding how his arm slot affects the velocity, plane and effectiveness of each pitch, and tweaking each of the 4 pitches he is utilizing and bringing his split back to the fore front.   He is also doing a game plan on the hitters which he has never done prior to coming to the Twins.  There was one batter today that I am sure the game plan was to pitch him inside.   He threw 2 inside pitches past him and then jammed him for a weak out.  He also put on 5-10 lbs and stayed in the Twin Cities to work on his craft.   He put in the effort that it requires to be a big league pitcher,  and the results show.  

The stuff in his 1st outing was the 2nd best of any pitcher.  Today not quite as good,  but overall a dominant performance that gave the Twins a win they so desperately needed.   His bugaboo has always been the blow-up start.  There is still a risk of that,   but right now I think the Rays are really regretting this trade,  their fans already are on public forums.    

Now Matthew this article seems quite the turn around when you had one article after the trade deadline where you graded the trades and gave the Bradley for Jax trade a C-  stating "Bradley was once a hot name, but he’s struggled with a 4.70 ERA over 350+ MLB innings. Jax had 2.5 years of control left and could have drawn more in the offseason. His reported trade request might’ve sped up the timeline to Minnesota’s detriment."  You also called him a bust after a handful of starts last year.  Its amazing how fickle fans and writers can be.   

I’m excited about him per my comments above. However it’s been two starts - might wanna slow the roll just a bit. 

[Danchat]

Hmm, if this trade continues to go the way it looks to be, with Jax regressing sharply and Bradley seemingly turning a corner over the offseason, this could be the second time the Falvey regime embarrassed the Rays in a trade. Taj's stuff seems to have taken a big step up over the offseason, perhaps a reminder that players can breakout later into their careers. Though it's hard to call Taj a late bloomer when he's still so young.

[bunsen82]

13 hours ago, Linus said:

I’m excited about him per my comments above. However it’s been two starts - might wanna slow the roll just a bit. 

I gave the disclaimer in there.  I said he is prone to blowups and this is 2 starts in.

Even still he was averaging 93 mph last year - 96 to 97 this year and hitting 100 on a couple pitches.   The splitter is back and working well.   He seems more confident up there, and when he has got into trouble moments,  rather than just rearing back and chucking and hoping for the best - he seems to have a plan - whether from his pre game study ect.   

This has been my stance since we got him -  trade deadline thread,   trade grade article,   individual game threads, the Bust article.  The multiple articles this offseason.  Say what you will I  have been consistent.  What that primarily was about was 3 things - bringing back the splitter,  improving mechanics for more velocity,  3.  putting in the necessary home work to be successful.   So yes this is 2 starts,  but the process, the work put in is ultimately what matters.  He had the 2nd best stuff of any pitcher in his first outing . . . that isn't hyperbole, its not hope, its fundamental improvement.   We have him for 4 years instead of this year and next year for Jax as well (hehe).  So ultimately say what you want,  put on the breaks if you wish -  he has done what I hoped he would do.   He put in all the necessary ingredients.  Now he just needs to make the cake.  

[purplesoldier4u]

21 hours ago, Linus said:

I’m excited about him per my comments above. However it’s been two starts - might wanna slow the roll just a bit. 

We'll take whatever we can get! 

[Twins33]

I wanted the Twins to keep him as a starter for one more year to see if they could get something out of him that the Rays couldn’t. So far, so good. I hope he keeps it up.