Orioles 8, Twins 6: The Piggyback Doesn't Work But At Least They Tried

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, bashbury said:

Lovely day to be outside in Baltimore, just wish I had remembered that 57° sitting in the shade requires a jacket.

They sell apparel at the souvenir shop.  Did you resort to that?

[Jack Pine]

3 hours ago, BrokenCompass said:

An embarrassing loss that will be one of many this season. 

The Twins can lose games that they're ahead by 1 or 2 runs. But to lose a game with a 4-0 lead is unforgiveable. Teams like the Twins just can't afford to give away games that are gift wrapped like this. But they do. Looked almost like a carbon copy of one of Rocco's losses. It's not the manager, it's the players. 

I remember Morneau's quote when Wallner had a 3-0 count early in the game. "With a 4-0 lead, he's gotta have the green light here, he might park one out on Utah Street". Instead Wallner took a strike down the middle and the booth went silent. He eventually struck out. 

No fire. Same old Twins. Rolling over. Uninterested and uninteresting. 

Not totally sure I totally agree as I was puzzeled by some of Shelton's moves as well.

[Western SD Fan]

Listening to the post-game interview with Shelton, Abel was scheduled to come in the 5th inning no matter what happened during the game.  I'm in the camp with @Rosterman and had discussed it late in spring training that Abel could have started the year in St. Paul, made one start to get his work in, and then been brought up to the majors to make his next start.  This method would have given us another bullpen option, possibly Altavilla, to help out with the bullpen for the first few games.  

If you do believe that the piggyback idea could have worked, then you had to be willing to pull Abel when he was getting in trouble after you believe he has enough work in.  I could forgive the 6th inning although Abel had coughed up the lead.  But you had to take him out in the 7th.  He had already thrown 47 pitches in 2 innings.  By the top of the 7th, Abel had clearly shown that he did not have it today and should have been pulled.  I scoured the pitch-by-pitch summary on mlb.com when Abel had an 0-2 or 1-2 count, The O's hitters went 3-8 with a walk, 2 doubles and a single for an OPS of 1.069 and 4 strikeouts in 3 1/3 IP.  I'm even a big Abel fan, but he didn't look like he had it today and was probably misused as a piggyback option and I hope this was just a one-off used because they felt they needed to keep Abel on a schedule.

[IndianaTwin]

There were off days Friday and again on Tuesday. If they don’t piggy back Abel and wait to start him on Wednesday, Ryan doesn’t go until Thursday and is pitching on SIX days rest, followed by Bradley, Ober and SWR on five days rest. Abel would be on seven days since his last spring training game if he waited until Wednesday.

As it is, after SWR tomorrow, Ryan will go on Wednesday on five days rest, Bradley will be on four days rest on Thursday, either Ober or Abel will go on four days rest on Friday and the other on five on Saturday. SWR will go on five days on Sunday and then they will be on four days rest for a while, unless there are rainouts. 

Additionally, Ober hadn’t gone more than 4.1 innings during spring training, so there was a good chance they were not going to get more than five innings at most from him, the day after they’d used five relievers and the day before starting SWR, who doesn’t have a history of going long. Given how the game played out to that point, pulling him after he’d just given up three runs in a 22-pitch fourth was probably a good move  

And while Abel isn’t going to be a reliever long term, they had indeed pitched him in relief in his last spring training, apparently in preparation for this.

I can agree with an argument that says based on the game situation, Abel should have been pulled while the damage was happening in the seventh, but I think the decision to piggyback them today made plenty of sense. 

 

And as it turns out, though this decision to piggyback appears to have been made a week or more ago, the weather forecast for Kansas City makes it an even better call. There’s a 95 percent chance of rain for both Wednesday and Thursday, with a high of 54 on Wednesday, when there is a night game. It sounds like there is a pretty good likelihood of one or perhaps even two rainouts. If they had not pitched Abel and held him until Wednesday, he already would have been pitching on something like seven days rest, with a pretty good chance he wouldn’t have gone until Thursday or even Friday on eight or nine days rest.  

[IndianaTwin]

But yes, the baserunning mistakes were egregious. Bell’s was particularly damaging, in that the next guy hit a double, which would have scored Bell. 

Larnach’s bad jump/Gray’s running through a sign may not have cost them a run. It should have runners on second and third with one out, instead of bases empty with two outs. You can’t count on the same stuff happening, but if it had, Larnach would have scored on Clemens’ fly ball and Buxton would have made the third out of the inning. 

Buxton’s was just weird. The RF will often through towards third in that situation, but he threw behind Buxton instead. I don’t know whether he was doing this, but the third base coach should have been yelling/signally to stay on the bag at second. 

And the Wallner challenge on strike three was also costly. They are learning about challenges on the fly, but that one wasn’t even close and was by someone who usually has a good eye. . 

[Greglw3]

8 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Yes. Larnach got a terrible jump and was given a late stop sign. Gray didnt even look and just kept running until he got almost to 3rd and then noticed Larnach still there. We were fortunate Baltimore played to get Gray out and Larnach was able to score while that was going on.

The double went all the way to the wall in RX and Larnach should have scored easily. 

Cost poor Gray an RBI and a triple.

The good news is, Larnach's baserunning will get lost in the 2 other egregious baserunning blunders today. 

I'd prefer Austin Martin play vs L & R in LF. He hit 32 points higher than Larnach last year, is much faster and can steal bases almost at will and, in my opinion is a better defensive left fielder. We were gonna take it to 'em on the base paths  this year but the starting lineup has arguably the two fastest Twins on the bench and two slowpokes in the corner outfield spots.

[Doctor Wu]

12 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Yes. Larnach got a terrible jump and was given a late stop sign. Gray didnt even look and just kept running until he got almost to 3rd and then noticed Larnach still there. We were fortunate Baltimore played to get Gray out and Larnach was able to score while that was going on.

I only saw the reply and I was puzzled why Gray looked like he was half-jogging to third base. Very weird play. I should know this, but who is the third base coach this year? Too bad we can't blame this one on Watkins!

[chpettit19]

5 hours ago, Greglw3 said:

I'd prefer Austin Martin play vs L & R in LF. He hit 32 points higher than Larnach last year, is much faster and can steal bases almost at will and, in my opinion is a better defensive left fielder. We were gonna take it to 'em on the base paths  this year but the starting lineup has arguably the two fastest Twins on the bench and two slowpokes in the corner outfield spots.

The roster is very poorly built with too many DHs, but Austin Martin does not steal bases at will. He's 19 for 26. That's a 73% success rate. 80% is generally viewed as the absolute bottom for an effective base stealer. Once you get below 80%, you're actually negatively affecting your team. Austin Martin has not been a good base stealer to this point of his career.

Keeping Larnach was always a risky decision. Nobody was going to take him at that contract number and once you brought Bell in you didn't have the DH spot against righties available anymore. It's awful roster building, but let's not make Martin into more than he is.

[Nshore]

Wallner's strikeout with the bases loaded is a signature at bat for him.  Just when the situation calls for him to have an aggressive  "eye of the tiger" approach, he crawls into a passive shell and barely takes the bat off his shoulder.  It's happened time and again.  The man needs a sports psychologist.  

[JD-TWINS]

14 hours ago, The Great Hambino said:

I think it was as much - if not more - about lack of faith in the bullpen and taking an opportunity to limit its exposure where they can.  If they wanted to avoid skipping Abel completely, they could've either stuck to the five-man order even with the extra days off (only four games in the first seven days after the end of spring training) or given Abel one start in St Paul while carrying an extra reliever for the first week.  

It's another way to steal innings away from the bullpen, and all else equal, I don't think anyone here thinks that's a terrible idea.  They didn't get the result today, but they were closer to success than it might appear in the boxscore.  All of Ober's runs allowed came on one pitch, and Abel's day looks very different if he can find a way to be more efficient with two strikes.

Not a bad plan, but bad execution.  It happens.

You could certainly argue that they could've/should've pivoted when Abel was in trouble in the 7th.  But Shelton's trying to make chicken salad out of ... suboptimal ingredients.  I don't mind him trying to be creative, at least not until it becomes a bad pattern

Right - actions in game 3 are not habitual. He used 5 guys Saturday and didn’t have 5 innings of PEN bullets Sunday, with a game Monday. …… Am assuming Abel was aware of the approach AND that they actually speak between innings and he felt OK with pitching in 7th & 8th as well. …… “execution” is typically the fly in the ointment

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, Nshore said:

Wallner's strikeout with the bases loaded is a signature at bat for him.  Just when the situation calls for him to have an aggressive  "eye of the tiger" approach, he crawls into a passive shell and barely takes the bat off his shoulder.  It's happened time and again.  The man needs a sports psychologist.  

Wow………….these are nearly verbatim comments of mine describing Eddie Julien all of last year! “Sports psychologist…..” numerous posts here ………. I’m with you RE: Wallner, his mind & thus confidence are seriously scrambled………. he’s hoping to WALK……….. thus, the 40 RBI last year with 41 XBH (essentially impossible stat). Not exactly “active” in moving RISP in ‘25 nor very early ‘26.

[Nshore]

9 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Wow………….these are nearly verbatim comments of mine describing Eddie Julien all of last year! “Sports psychologist…..” numerous posts here ………. I’m with you RE: Wallner, his mind & thus confidence are seriously scrambled………. he’s hoping to WALK……….. thus, the 40 RBI last year with 41 XBH (essentially impossible stat). Not exactly “active” in moving RISP in ‘25 nor very early ‘26.

There are some players who relish the high impact moments and want to swing the bat and take their shot and whatever happens, happens.  Then there are those who appear to tense up and are knee shaking terrified.  For whatever reason, Wallner fits firmly into the terrified group.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

The base running blunders are infuriating. Different manager. Different coaches. Doesn't matter. Still running into outs.

As for Ober, oofda! Not sure what they do with him. Morneau and Perkins were saying his velo is up in the bullpen but he can't carry it over into games. Never heard of such a thing. Isn't usually the opposite? If this really is something mental or mechanical, they have had enough time to figure it out. 

[Mike Sixel]

People who beg for the human element in sports sure get mad when it manifests that way...

[MGX]

3 hours ago, Nshore said:

There are some players who relish the high impact moments and want to swing the bat and take their shot and whatever happens, happens.  Then there are those who appear to tense up and are knee shaking terrified.  For whatever reason, Wallner fits firmly into the terrified group.

The numbers tell a different story...

Matt Wallner Career numbers

RISP - .257/.382/.509 - .890 OPS
RISP w/2 outs - .278/.409/.600 - 1.009 OPS
Runners on base - .261/.373/.463 - .880 OPS
No runners on base - .209/.323/.463 - .786 OPS

[USAFChief]

12 minutes ago, MGX said:

The numbers tell a different story...

Matt Wallner Career numbers

RISP - .257/.382/.509 - .890 OPS
RISP w/2 outs - .278/.409/.600 - 1.009 OPS
Runners on base - .261/.373/.463 - .880 OPS
No runners on base - .209/.323/.463 - .786 OPS

Now do late and close, and games within 1 or 2 runs.

 

[chpettit19]

4 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Now do late and close, and games within 1 or 2 runs.

 

.782 within 2 runs. .708 within 1.

Yeah, late and close is bad at .577. But those other 2 numbers aren't bad at all. .719 was the average OPS in baseball last year. .782 is well above average while .708 is just below.

This idea that Wallner has been atrocious with runners on and is simply "not clutch" is based on people's feelings from last year. The 2 seasons before he was outstanding. It's all smallish sample size. But Matt Wallner has not been this awful black hole in the lineup with runners on base. Even in close games. 

Since the start of the 2023 season, Matt Wallner is 59th in baseball in wRC+ with runners in scoring position for players with at least 60 PAs in that time. There are 992 players with at least 60 PAs in that time period. He's 59th.

2 outs and RISP? 47th out of 962.

High leverage? 52 out of 1060.

High leverage, 2 outs, and RISP? He does crater there. Below average with a wRC+ of 80. So, he ends up in the section of the list with Yordan Alvarez (wRC+ 83), Francisco Lindor (81), Brandon Nimmo (80), Christian Yelich (79), Matt Chapman (79), and Teoscar Hernandez (73). I'm betting there aren't many fans screaming about teams needing to get rid those guys. Probably not many claiming those guys are "knee shaking terrified." That Alvarez fella has a .944 OPS in the postseason. Guess he only "appear(s) to tense up and (be) knee shaking terrified" during those regular season games, but not postseason ones?

 

[TheLeviathan]

1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

.782 within 2 runs. .708 within 1.

Yeah, late and close is bad at .577. But those other 2 numbers aren't bad at all. .719 was the average OPS in baseball last year. .782 is well above average while .708 is just below.

This idea that Wallner has been atrocious with runners on and is simply "not clutch" is based on people's feelings from last year. The 2 seasons before he was outstanding. It's all smallish sample size. But Matt Wallner has not been this awful black hole in the lineup with runners on base. Even in close games. 

Since the start of the 2023 season, Matt Wallner is 59th in baseball in wRC+ with runners in scoring position for players with at least 60 PAs in that time. There are 992 players with at least 60 PAs in that time period. He's 59th.

2 outs and RISP? 47th out of 962.

High leverage? 52 out of 1060.

High leverage, 2 outs, and RISP? He does crater there. Below average with a wRC+ of 80. So, he ends up in the section of the list with Yordan Alvarez (wRC+ 83), Francisco Lindor (81), Brandon Nimmo (80), Christian Yelich (79), Matt Chapman (79), and Teoscar Hernandez (73). I'm betting there aren't many fans screaming about teams needing to get rid those guys. Probably not many claiming those guys are "knee shaking terrified." That Alvarez fella has a .944 OPS in the postseason. Guess he only "appear(s) to tense up and (be) knee shaking terrified" during those regular season games, but not postseason ones?

 

To add to this...by my eye the Orioles had zero intention of pitching to him.  

One of the problems with having a soft lineup like the Twins have is that it is easy to pitch around some of our guys.  It sure seemed like that was the treatment Wallner was getting this series.

[RpR]

4 hours ago, MGX said:

The numbers tell a different story...

Matt Wallner Career numbers

RISP - .257/.382/.509 - .890 OPS
RISP w/2 outs - .278/.409/.600 - 1.009 OPS
Runners on base - .261/.373/.463 - .880 OPS
No runners on base - .209/.323/.463 - .786 OPS

What he did in the past -- the farther back you go , the less it means.

Right now he is JOEY without the good glove.

[Mike Sixel]

Stop with the actual numbers. People have made up their mind. 

[Cris E]

During the game it was pointed out that Gray might have kept running to third to draw a throw and get Larnach home safely. 

The piggybacking was a fine piece of strategy that went off the rails during execution. It happens, I'm not beating up the manager over that. Abel could have been on a shorter leash though.  

I am over the Clemens fascination though. He's not that good a fielder that we should be suffering his batting on such a regular basis. He offers nothing that can't be stashed in St Paul or Witchita.