Twins 1, Orioles 2: Minnesota Bats Go Cold in 80-Degree Baltimore

[The Great Hambino]

22 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

One of the primary issues with a run expectancy chart is it takes nothing into account. Or everything, depending on how you look at it.

Thousands of 1st and 2nd, no out situations combined into one number doesn't tell you much. It ignores every iota of context. Who's running, pitching, hitting, playing defense. The score, the inning, the weather. A ground ball machine on the mound with Ryan Jeffers at the plate? The run expectancy is not 1.55. Nor is it 1.55 with the middle of the Yankee lineup due up against, say, Justin Topa.

The end result is, a run expectancy chart sounds informative but Isn't a useful tool to inform strategy. 

This touches on my biggest gripe with how analytics-based decision making is presented.  Instead of comparing average outcomes of decisions, the exact same data could be used to tell us a decision needs to have an X% chance of success to be the optimal one. 

Using this run expectancy situation as an example, you could use the exact same data used to come up with average run expectancy to determine that swinging away must be successful 28%* of the time to make the risk worthwhile.  Once you have that, now you can look at the specific game situation to determine if you meet that threshold.  

Now you have a framework that still relies on the same quantitative data as run expectancy while allowing you to adjust the dials to account for the realities of the current situation.  That's how you marry quantitative and qualitative analysis to come up with the best decision.  You don't throw the baby out with the bathwater and ignore all that valuable data and just revert to relying on the manager to gnaw on a blade of grass and do whatever his tummy tells him to do

As a secondary pet peeve, win probability should replace run expectancy as the bedrock of these types of decisions, especially later in the game.  Doing so would do a better job of accounting for the fact that a run while down one in the eighth has more marginal value than a run while up two in the fifth, for example.

* Figure pulled out of thin air

[NYCTK]

22 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

It was pretty clear by the middle innings this was going to be a low scoring game. One run becomes pretty important at that point. I generally don't like sacrificing, but there are times and places for it. Given the situation, the pitcher, and our lineup, I'd have sac bunted the 3rd time. For sure. 

I'm impressed that you're now showing great confidence in the Twins bullpen in limiting runs by the opposing team. Rare opinion on this website to be sure. 

[PDX Twin]

We should be celebrating. The Twins scored today! That won't happen every day.

[Dawgzilla]

Team stinks!  Ryan, Buxton, and Luke are the only guys worth keeping!

 

Season record prediction:  69-93!  Offense is horrendous!

 

Good luck putting butts in seats by May 15!  Then Twins ownership/front office will say "we can't make it in this small market"!  Team doesn't spend money on a competitive team to make us back them, meaning little interest and lower attendance #s!  Duh!!!!!!

[DJL44]

31 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

It was pretty clear by the middle innings this was going to be a low scoring game. One run becomes pretty important at that point. I generally don't like sacrificing, but there are times and places for it. Given the situation, the pitcher, and our lineup, I'd have sac bunted the 3rd time. For sure. 

It was clear that the game would be decided by the bullpens. Are you confident the Twins bullpen can protect a one run lead for 4+ innings?

[Woof Bronzer]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Run expectancy 

Runners on 1st and 2nd and 0 out = 1.55

Runners on 2nd and 3rd with 1 out = 1.41

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-run-expectancy-matrix-reloaded-for-the-2020s/

 

What would be the win expectancy if the Twins got a run there vs. if they didn't?  

[Woof Bronzer]

33 minutes ago, The Great Hambino said:

As a secondary pet peeve, win probability should replace run expectancy as the bedrock of these types of decisions, especially later in the game.  Doing so would do a better job of accounting for the fact that a run while down one in the eighth has more marginal value than a run while up two in the fifth, for example.

Even better yet I'd say managers should take both historical data into account as well as the current game situation, and make decisions appropriately.  The decision might be different tomorrow, and that's ok!  They might be different in the 2nd inning vs the 8th inning.  It's really ok. 

The idea that we should never sacrifice to get one run because the historical likelihood of getting 2 runs is like 8% lower by doing so is brain melting logic.  But that's modern baseball I guess.  

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

They won’t go 1-12 with RISP every game.

Twins batters: "Hold our beers."

[Linus]

1 hour ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

I saw the same thing, but when I watched the replay, the shortstop was lined up for a throw to third base, not to second base. When the outfielder gets the ball, he looks up for the cutoff man, and Lee was lined up with third base. I don’t think that’s Martin’s mistake. I think the shortstop told him to throw it there with his positioning.

Then it’s a mistake by both of them. The ball has to go to second   

[USAFChief]

42 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

I'm impressed that you're now showing great confidence in the Twins bullpen in limiting runs by the opposing team. Rare opinion on this website to be sure. 

Would one run have proved usefull?

[NYCTK]

1 minute ago, USAFChief said:

Would one run have proved usefull?

If you constantly play for one run, you'll end up scoring less runs.

The middle innings of a tie game with a bad bullpen are arguably the worst time to play for one run, situationally.

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, David Maro said:

Don't know what game people were watching but the score was 0-0 and Funderburk walked the leadoff hitter and Topa gave up a single up the middle putting men on first and third before Martin's mistake. Then Topa give up another single up the middle for the second run. Its time to get real about a pitcher who had a 19.00 ERA in ST. He should have been DFA'ed and another pitcher from St Paul given the opportunity.

Funderburk & Topa both gave up weak contact ground balls ……. that’s what they are trying to do ….. just didn’t work out.

LEE standing 8 feet off the line and one step onto the grass was THE problem on the fly ball to Martin. There’s no play at the plate nor at 3rd base….. what the hell is he doing? Lee should be in between 2B & Martin screaming for the ball to go to 2B.

Opponents are going to score - period. Just like the 2nd half of ‘24 and all of last year, the offense is sooo weak that there’s Zero room for error. Can’t have the expectation to win games 1-0!

[JD-TWINS]

11 minutes ago, Linus said:

Then it’s a mistake by both of them. The ball has to go to second   

It’s Lee’s job as the cut-off man to direct Martin……no other scenario.

[Linus]

23 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

It’s Lee’s job as the cut-off man to direct Martin……no other scenario.

No. Martin should have been coming up throwing to second without looking for the cut off man. Nobody stops to find the cutoff man and then throws - they start throwing right away. Usually the cut off man is in the right spot so it doesn’t happen. 

[Riverbrian]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Baltimore’s “ace” is not anything special. Kudos to you for knowing in advance that the bats would be “cold”. The rest of us only found that out after the fact. Your ability to predict the future is remarkable. Play your favorite lottery numbers now before that wears off.

I'm not sure if "Ace" is being tossed around with sarcasm or not. 

I'm not looking for "Ace" definition.

However: Trevor Rogers in 2025:  

109.2 Innings - 1.81 ERA. - .903 WHIP - 103 K's. - 29 BB's. 

Will he continue? That remains to be seen but those are some incredible numbers. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

3 hours ago, David Maro said:

Don't know what game people were watching but the score was 0-0 and Funderburk walked the leadoff hitter and Topa gave up a single up the middle putting men on first and third before Martin's mistake. Then Topa give up another single up the middle for the second run. Its time to get real about a pitcher who had a 19.00 ERA in ST. He should have been DFA'ed and another pitcher from St Paul given the opportunity.

I really wonder about Topa. I was hoping he would have a dead arm or some other "injury" so he could be put on the 15 day Il to start the season. I know its only one game but add in ST and it might be time to drop/Il/demote Topa and bring up Altavilla. He throws 96-98 MPH so he could add some velocity to a soft tossing bullpen. He does have a high walk rate around 12.3% and doesn't have a huge SO rate, around 18%, so there is risk. Still, Altavilla had 2.48 Era (4.66 FIP) last year so there's also hope. Topa was bad in ST and looks off to a slow start so maybe some time off would help. He did have an "oblique issue" in ST so maybe he isn't completely healthy.

[mluebker]

5 hours ago, The Great Hambino said:

I'm giving Shelton the benefit of the doubt for now. 

You’re a generous man and I hope you’re right. But it feels like we’ve seen this movie before.

[mluebker]

2 hours ago, Woof Bronzer said:

2 hours ago, The Great Hambino said:

As a secondary pet peeve, win probability should replace run expectancy as the bedrock of these types of decisions, especially later in the game…

Even better yet I'd say managers should take both historical data into account as well as the current game situation, and make decisions appropriately… 

Or best of all, have a manager who’ll put down the iPad once in a while and actually manage the team based on his accumulated experience and what his gut is telling him. I hear that used to work pretty good.

[Nshore]

In order to "go cold" the Twins' bats would first have to be a temperature other than cold.

[mikelink45]

Game one - Ryan look great. Buxton got a triple 

A really close game. Not a lot that can be really judged on the basis of this one game with 161 to follow. It's just nice to have baseball back.  

[jkcarew]

Over 50 teams have won the World Series after starting the season with an 0-1 record. I’m not worried.

 

 

Gotta win Saturday, though.