Has Zebby Matthews Lost His Rotation Spot?

[Cody Pirkl]

Image courtesy of © Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

Zebby Matthews made an exciting rise through the Twins’ system in 2024 and flashed his potential in the majors in 2025. The expectation was that 2026 would bring him more opportunities to cement himself in the Twins’ rotation, and to finally turn the corner from promising to productive. As spring training winds down, it's looking like that chance is slipping past him.

While it's important not to put too much weight into spring performance, we know some roster battles are underway. The bench spots are the obvious examples, but another opened in the rotation when Pablo López went down with an injury. It's safe to say the fifth spot (after Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Simeon Woods Richardson and Taj Bradley) will go to either Matthews or Mick Abel.

 

The two have had very different springs. Abel, 24, was acquired at last year's trade deadline and has been one of the best arms in all of camp. He’s allowed just two runs in over 13 innings and struck out over a third of opposing hitters. Matthews's ERA is just under 6.00, and some of the underlying metrics are even more concerning.

The velocity and raw stuff that jumped off the page while Matthews ascended through the Twins’ system haven't shown up this spring. In Sunday's start, he was missing a tick and a half on the fastball, and the velocity was down across the board. It’s worth wondering whether his shoulder injury from last season has anything to do with the dropoff, but even if this is simply a delay in getting into midseason form, it's easy to make an argument that Matthews should begin the season atop the Saints rotation, rather than at thee bottom of the Twins'. His stuff is worse even if we keep it apples-to-apples by setting his spring readouts alongside the ones from last spring training, rather than the regular season.

 

 

While it would be good to afford Matthews all of the opportunities possible this season, he's still just 25 years old. The Twins will need another starting pitcher by the end of the first month or two. The team is also steadfast in its stated intention to win in 2026. If they want to hit the ground running, Abel has looked like a stronger bet to contribute immediately. Besides, rewarding a top prospect for an exciting spring is a good notion.

If Matthews had built himself a stronger résumé at the big-league level, things would be different. He has yet to put it all together, though. The Twins came into this spring wanting to see one of their young starters come in and win a rotation spot, rather than having Matthews's name already written in. Abel is looking like that guy, instead of Matthews.

Matthews has nothing left to prove in Triple-A, which would make him missing out on the Opening Day rotation a disappointing outcome. The same can be said for Abel, though. The Twins are fortunate to have several options for this spot, even if someone has to lose out, and that someone could be a homegrown prospect with a bright future with the team.

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[Fire Dan Gladden]

Competition is good. SP depth is good. Matthews or Abel should be chomping at the bit in AAA, waiting for their opportunity. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

Ober scares me the most right now, but Matthews will get his shot at some point. Hopefully the stuff picks up in due time

[Nshore]

They should try Matthews in the bullpen.  It might even help him refine his command.

[Brandon]

Did Zebby have a spot?  

I thought it was a competition for the 5th starter.

[Hubie29]

Realistically all we have is Ryan and then it's a crapshoot with 5-6 mediocre at best interchangeable parts. 

[nicksaviking]

Matthews probably should be in the bullpen. But we're talking about overall poor results from 25 starts and 117 innings across two seasons for him, versus overall poor results from 73 starts and 385 innings across three seasons for Bradley.

What's going on here? To be fair (for now) to the Twins, I haven't seen THEM say Bradley gets a job over Abel or Matthews, but every article here seems to imply it. Why? Because the Twins need to give longer leashes to players so they can prove the front office was right about a trade? 

That's awful roster management. For the Twins, failed starters make for the team's best relievers. Just do it already. 

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Matthews probably should be in the bullpen. But we're talking about overall poor results from 25 starts and 117 innings across two seasons for him, versus overall poor results from 73 starts and 385 innings across three seasons for Bradley.

What's going on here? To be fair (for now) to the Twins, I haven't seen THEM say Bradley gets a job over Abel or Matthews, but every article here seems to imply it. Why? Because the Twins need to give longer leashes to players so they can prove the front office was right about a trade? 

That's awful roster management. For the Twins, failed starters make for the team's best relievers. Just do it already. 

I'm not ready to pull the plug on Matthews yet. This team stinks, let's see what these guys can do this year....

[Permanent Twins Fan]

I don't know if Zebby lost his spot, so much as Abel might have taken it away from him. Credits to Abel, he has has a great spring. I was in on Zebby heading into Spring, and nothing I've seen has really done anything to change my long-term outlook of him. Granted, Abel has pitched a lot better, and is definitely deserving of the spot over Matthews on Opening Day.

[Alex Wilde]

7 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Matthews probably should be in the bullpen. But we're talking about overall poor results from 25 starts and 117 innings across two seasons for him, versus overall poor results from 73 starts and 385 innings across three seasons for Bradley.

What's going on here? To be fair (for now) to the Twins, I haven't seen THEM say Bradley gets a job over Abel or Matthews, but every article here seems to imply it. Why? Because the Twins need to give longer leashes to players so they can prove the front office was right about a trade? 

That's awful roster management. For the Twins, failed starters make for the team's best relievers. Just do it already. 

ERA 4.86, K/9 9.58, WHIP 1.31, FIP 4,38

ERA 4.60, K/9 7.28, WHIP 1.38, FIP 4.33

Pick your poison cause one pitched in the bigs as a starter for 13 seasons and the other is Taj after three seasons ages 22, 23, and 24. Not sure what your disdain is for Taj but it’s definitely a bit irrational.

[DJL44]

The 6th starter will still get around 20 starts this season 

[nicksaviking]

44 minutes ago, Alex Wilde said:

ERA 4.86, K/9 9.58, WHIP 1.31, FIP 4,38

ERA 4.60, K/9 7.28, WHIP 1.38, FIP 4.33

Pick your poison cause one pitched in the bigs as a starter for 13 seasons and the other is Taj after three seasons ages 22, 23, and 24. Not sure what your disdain is for Taj but it’s definitely a bit irrational.

I have no disdain for Bradley, I’m very excited about him.

Im just annoyed with how many service years this team blows chasing the preferred, but long-shot option of being a starter, instead of transitioning to the much more reasonable option of being a back-end reliever.

 

[Riverbrian]

7 hours ago, DJL44 said:

The 6th starter will still get around 20 starts this season 

Everyone needs to understand this. 

 

 

[NYCTK]

8 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

I have no disdain for Bradley, I’m very excited about him.

Im just annoyed with how many service years this team blows chasing the preferred, but long-shot option of being a starter, instead of transitioning to the much more reasonable option of being a back-end reliever.

 

What use is a good reliever this season anyways? Besides trading them away come the deadline.

It's far more beneficial to the organization to get as many of these guys as many starts as they can. The rotation is not nearly as deep as many here want to think, they will all get a lot of MLB starts.

[dxpavelka]

Less concerned about one guy not winning a spot than happy about another guy coming thru.  Of course a lot could happen in the week and a half between the start of the season and the first time the Twins actually need a fifth starter.  Not to mention they could use the dreaded Opener one of those days.

 

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, NYCTK said:

What use is a good reliever this season anyways? Besides trading them away come the deadline.

It's far more beneficial to the organization to get as many of these guys as many starts as they can. The rotation is not nearly as deep as many here want to think, they will all get a lot of MLB starts.

The Twins best relievers are always guys like Bradley, but just about to a man, they take a year of committing them to the pen before they produce.

So it's not about 2026, it's about setting up 2027 and beyond.

[NYCTK]

49 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

The Twins best relievers are always guys like Bradley, but just about to a man, they take a year of committing them to the pen before they produce.

So it's not about 2026, it's about setting up 2027 and beyond.

I just don't think that's true. Varland and Jax were both highly effective in their first season as a designated RP.

You could argue the bouncing back and forth in the role doesn't allow someone to be an effective reliever, but that's irrelevant this season. Come 2027 you want to avoid that, that makes sense. 

[TopGunn#22]

To me it's clear Abel has earned the #5 spot (and he may just out perform SP #4 & #3) and that Zebby hasn't done enough to put himself ahead of SWR and Taj.  But as it has been pointed out, Zebby starting out in St. Paul is NOT a disaster.  Would I have liked him to beat out Ober for a rotation spot?  CERTAINLY.  But Zebby will very likely get at least 20 starts this year. 

Since I'm not buying the hopium that the Twins will be contenders this year, my focus for 2026 is where we will be once baseball starts getting played in 2027.  Zebby should be a part of the rotation by then for sure.