“It’s Just a Dumb System:” Joe Ryan Critiques MLB’s Arbitration System

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of William Parmeter

Joe Ryan did not sound bitter. He did not sound triumphant. Mostly, he sounded tired of the whole thing. “It is what it is — it’s done,” Ryan said after he and the Minnesota Twins agreed to a one-year, $6.2 million contract on January 26 that includes a $13 million mutual option for 2027. The deal came together just hours before Ryan and team officials were scheduled to board flights to Phoenix for an arbitration hearing.

In the end, cooler heads and simple math won out. The Twins and Ryan were just $500,000 apart when they filed figures ahead of the Jan. 8 deadline. For a pitcher coming off a 13-10 season with a 3.42 ERA and 194 strikeouts in 171 innings, the gap was relatively minor. But the process is rarely about the gap. It is about the ritual. And the ritual remains as uncomfortable as ever.

A Strong Season With Some Late Noise
Ryan’s platform year was strong by any reasonable measure. He worked 171 innings, missed bats at an elite clip (28.2 K%), and for much of the season pitched like a steadying force in a rotation that needed one. Through his first 121 1/3 innings, he posted a 2.82 ERA and allowed just 14 home runs. He looked like the type of arm who could anchor a playoff series and was named to his first All-Star team. Then the context changed.

Following a rough outing in Toronto on August 25th, Ryan acknowledged that his energy dipped in the weeks after the August 1st trade deadline when the Twins were no longer positioned to chase a postseason spot. Over his final 10 starts, he logged a 4.89 ERA and allowed 2.17 home runs per nine innings across 49 2/3 innings. The sharpness faded. The fastball command wavered. The ball left the yard more frequently.

In arbitration, those details matter. The late-season fade becomes an exhibit. The home run rate becomes a bullet point. The human context often gets stripped away. For teams and players, this can create wounds that are hard to heal.

Ryan recently switched representation to VC Sports Group, but the figures for the filing had already been exchanged with his previous agency. When talks stalled, the numbers went in. When neither side blinked immediately, the hearing date loomed. Ryan admitted he was not a fan of the system and feels like baseball needs to find a new salary system for young players.

“They’re trying to win, and that’s kind of their show,” Ryan said. “That’s their baseball game. … I think at the end of the day that process is pretty antiquated and kind of stupid. No one in the league likes it. No team likes it. No one that works for a team likes it. No players like it. It doesn’t benefit anyone. It’s just a dumb system.”

The Skubal Effect
If there is any momentum for change, it may come from cases like Tarik Skubal’s. The Tigers ace recently secured a significant arbitration win, as he filed at $32 million and Detroit countered at $19 million. The ruling shattered the previous arbitration salary record of $31 million set by Juan Soto in 2024. More importantly, it represented a raise of $21.85 million, more than double the previous record increase of $9.6 million set by deGrom in 2019.

Skubal’s decisions reinforced the fact that frontline starters with elite results are being rewarded aggressively by panels. When a Cy Young caliber arm walks into a hearing with comparable stats and walks out with the number he filed, it shifts the landscape. For pitchers like Ryan, that matters.

While Ryan is not coming off a Cy Young season, he is part of a wave of arbitration-eligible starters who combine innings volume with swing-and-miss ability. As salaries for that tier climb through arbitration, teams will have a harder time suppressing numbers by leaning on selective splits or brief downturns.

Panels have shown a willingness to reward impact and durability. Skubal’s case strengthens the argument that pitchers with high strikeout totals, strong run prevention, and meaningful innings loads deserve to be paid accordingly. It nudges the system slightly toward the players, even if the framework remains flawed.

Business as Usual
For the Twins, avoiding the hearing was the priority. Arbitration hearings can strain relationships. They force teams to highlight weaknesses. They require players to sit quietly while their value is dissected in an adversarial fashion.

Minnesota has generally tried to avoid that outcome with its core pieces. Getting a deal done at $6.2 million keeps Ryan in the fold on reasonable terms and leaves open the possibility of a $13 million mutual option next season. From a roster-building standpoint, it is tidy. From a player relations standpoint, it avoids unnecessary scars.

Still, Ryan’s blunt assessment lingers. The system is antiquated. It benefits no one. Both sides play their roles because the collective bargaining agreement requires it. In the end, the Twins and Ryan did what most teams and players eventually do. They compromised. They shook hands. They moved forward. The process may be dumb, as Ryan put it. But until something replaces it, this is the game within the game.

Do you agree with Ryan that something needs to change? What system would be fair for both players and teams in the next CBA? Leave a comment and start the discussion. 

 

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[DataNerd]

It's definitely not a good system, but the question becomes what do you replace it with?  Baseball has a much longer and larger developmental system than any other US sport, and players often take 2-3 years before they become above-average, so whatever system needs to encourage teams to develop young players by getting excess value out of the ones that succeed.

[nicksaviking]

Probably hard to make meaningful changes unless/until the league adopts a salary cap and floor like the other pro sports.

I know many don't think that's possible, but I think it's quietly being set up, and it's why a team like the Dodgers is so blatantly flouting the system right now, trying to win all the championships before the CBA expires.

[thelanges5]

I wish we could extend Joe, but I don’t think it’s possible.

[nicksaviking]

11 minutes ago, thelanges5 said:

I wish we could extend Joe, but I don’t think it’s possible.

He's going to be 32 when he's a free agent. Ryan might be my favorite current player, but that seems about the right age to part ways with a starting pitcher. Especially if you can get a compensatory draft pick for him.

[IndianaTwin]

Don't know if these quotes were lifted from Dan Hayes' article in The Athletic, but his quotes there seemed pretty transparent about his feelings along the way, including that he's optimistic about the pitching staff. 

The also clarified that the reason he didn't attend TwinsFest was because of his partner having a baby and his prep for the World Baseball Classic. He also said that Tom Pohlad visited him in LA. 

[old nurse]

There is a union and a contract coming up. The union has always sold the younger players out. If Joe should be critical of anything it should be the union 

[DJL44]

The arbitration system stinks, but the previous system was to have young talent hold out for more money and not report to spring training until they got a raise. Who is the last baseball player to hold out?

[dxpavelka]

Don't like the system?  That's fine.  There are those who don't like the lack of a salary cap and floor.  Seems like some sort of arrangement could be worked out thru collective bargaining.

[Whitey333]

Ryan is only going to make 6 million this year.  Oh my I sure hope he can feed his family.  In all likelihood Ryan won't be long for the Twins anyway.  He's pitched well although in each of the last two years his second halves have not been good.  Considering the Twins front office and ownership it seems very unlikely that they will sign him to an extension.  That mutual extension for $13 million won't be extended...most mutual extensions aren't.  It seems to me that they need to trade the likes of Ryan, Lopez, Jeffers, and Buxton while they can get something good for them.

[jmlease1]

This system is a dumb one, but it's what we're stuck with for now. It has all kinds of nonsensical pieces in it (like the fact that the arbitrator might not really know very much about baseball or the fact that even if a player had a poor year they're still getting a raise regardless) but it's really designed more to cost control raises for younger players than anything else. Overall it's better for the owners than the players by a lot (Joe Ryan will likely be worth 4-8 times what his actual salary will be for 2026) but as noted: even teams don't like it, especially the process.

It might get changed in the next CBA because the next CBA could have some more radical changes to the financial systems of baseball and if it does, arbitration could easily be a piece of what goes, especially in a system with a cap & a floor. I'd be fine with it.

I generally prefer players get more. I'm not interested in carrying the water for the billionaire owners, even if the players are millionaires.

[jorgenswest]

In the Athletic article Joe was very optimistic about the Twins and the season. It almost seems as if he was continually pressed about arbitration.

The title of the Athletic article was

Quote

“With key teammates retained, Joe Ryan ‘really happy’ to return to Twins”

. The article also stated that

Quote

“Ryan, who recently switched his representation to VC Sports Group, also downplayed the notion that he was rankled by the arbitration process.”

Perhaps @Cody Christie had a completely different interview with Joe. If not his take on Ryan leads to comments like this

45 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

Oh my I sure hope he can feed his family.

That second hand take is a long way from the Athletic article and is a result of the TD article that is either sourced from a different interview or poorly and maybe irresponsibly represented the entirety of the interview. It does play to what some TD readers want to hear.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

I wish Joe well. He's a cool guy. The Joe Ryan Experience is something special in a good way.