Austin Martin Has Taken Advantage of His Opportunity. What Does It Mean for 2026 Minnesota Twins?

[old nurse]

2 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Nice to have Martin get some press, but the thinking of Falvey and the FO are too confusing for me to speculate.  Having acquired Roden and Outman Falvey might continue to push for playing time for "his" acquisitions despite their lack of production.  

The list of OF candidates is long, but how many have potential to be more than replacement level or below?  How do they rank?  I prefer the prospects, not that prospects always reach their potential, but because the other players have already shown their abilities and that is not good enough. 

Martin is his acquisition. Except for Buxton, they all were his acquisitions 

[LA Vikes Fan]

2 hours ago, HrbieFan said:

Really don't understand why Roden, Outman, McCusker and Kersey are even being talked about for next year. Maybe Roden gets another look, the other 3 are 4A players at best. Between Martin, Fedko and ERod we have more upside than thise 3.  

Couldn't agree more. Roden has the AAA track record to get his shot. The rest? We've seen what they can do, and it isn't good enough to even be the 5th OF on a competitive MLB team. The only thing that holds me back at all is Outman's performance for the Dodgers in 2023. That gives you a little hope that there's something there if it could only be unlocked. He might get another shot but the chances of success seem very low. Given that we traded for him, I suspect Outman gets a reserve OF role next year but that's it for him - take advantage or he's on the AAAA OF circuit going from team to team. 

[old nurse]

29 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Fedko hit .268/.353/.476 in 187 PA in AAA

Outman has hit .283/.382/.579 in 870 PA in AAA

Gonzalez hit .316/.358/.504 in 148 PA in AAA

Rodriguez hit .258/.429/.423 in 212 PA in AAA

Why are you so anxious to call up an outfielder who has hit worse than Outman, Gabriel Gonzalez, and Emmanuel Rodriguez at AAA? Gonzalez has to be added to the 40-man and Rodriguez is already on the 40-man. Both should be ahead of Fedko in the pecking order.

Maddux Houghton has out OPSed them all on the AAA level.  People will be calling for him soon if all they read is the OPS column. 😆

[LA Vikes Fan]

I agree with the original poster on Martin, but I think this underplays his success this year and his future. He is playing like an above average MLB staring OF in really his first extended look at the MLB level. That's pretty damn impressive. You never know whether early success or failure will translate long term. Still, if this is what he is he is a foundational player on a competitive team hitting in the first 1/3 of the order.  That's what a guy who hits .280-.300/.360plus/.375-.400 who can run well and play a decent of better LF is. He really is the one success story so far for the last 2 months tryout camp the Twins have run and he and Keaschall are the development success stories of the 2025 season. 

I see next year's Opening Day lineup as having Buxton, Keaschall, and Martin in the first 3 spots in some order. I'd prefer Martin, Keaschall, Buxton but I hear Buck likes leading off and he's been successful so I guess we shouldn't mess with that success unless he's mentally ready for that. I hope what we're seeing this year is what Martin brings to the table because we need it and that level of play wpudl really help elevate the lineup.   

[jmlease1]

4 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Outman is Out "Of Options" man. 

He's back in 2026. They are not giving away Stewart for a two month rental. 

We all need to get a re-set on Brock Stewart's value, though. I think it was a bad trade trade because Stewart was worth more to the Twins then and now than Outman is/will be, IMHO. But while talented, his injury history makes him someone that simply can't be counted on to fill a role in almost anyone's bullpen. Dodgers acquired him and he threw 4 times before going on the IL, and it seems unlikely that he'll be on their playoff roster at this point. Are they even going to offer him arbitration for next season?

But this is why we got such a nothingburger for Stewart at the deadline. Other MLB teams saw him as a guy who couldn't be counted on. They're not wrong.

I do fear that the Twins will fall into the sunk cost fallacy with Outman and treat losing him on the waiver as being worse than spending a roster spot on him, which seems crazy to me. 26-man roster spots have value and that value is higher than Outman.

Martin has earned a spot for next season, they're not giving up on Wallner (though maybe they should be thinking about 1B and/or DH for 2026), and thankfully Buxton has a no-trade. That leaves 2-3 spots for the OF, and I would not waste one on Outman. Roden is going to get another shot I'm sure (whether anyone likes it or not) and frankly has more upside at this point even if we all hated the trade that was part of bringing him here.

[DJL44]

14 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

He's back in 2026. They are not giving away Stewart for a two month rental. 

Gosh I hope not. That would be waving a white flag on 2026. Outman turns 29 in May and he's been bad for two straight years. He's past his prime just like Manny Margot. Nobody will pick him up on waivers. They'll be able to sign him as a minor league free agent if they cut him from the 40-man roster.

[Riverbrian]

2 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

We all need to get a re-set on Brock Stewart's value, though. I think it was a bad trade trade because Stewart was worth more to the Twins then and now than Outman is/will be, IMHO. But while talented, his injury history makes him someone that simply can't be counted on to fill a role in almost anyone's bullpen. Dodgers acquired him and he threw 4 times before going on the IL, and it seems unlikely that he'll be on their playoff roster at this point. Are they even going to offer him arbitration for next season?

But this is why we got such a nothingburger for Stewart at the deadline. Other MLB teams saw him as a guy who couldn't be counted on. They're not wrong.

I do fear that the Twins will fall into the sunk cost fallacy with Outman and treat losing him on the waiver as being worse than spending a roster spot on him, which seems crazy to me. 26-man roster spots have value and that value is higher than Outman.

Martin has earned a spot for next season, they're not giving up on Wallner (though maybe they should be thinking about 1B and/or DH for 2026), and thankfully Buxton has a no-trade. That leaves 2-3 spots for the OF, and I would not waste one on Outman. Roden is going to get another shot I'm sure (whether anyone likes it or not) and frankly has more upside at this point even if we all hated the trade that was part of bringing him here.

I certainly won't argue your thoughts. And I think the points you make about Stewart's value have value. 

However... the front office are going to give Outman a run. There was no reason to make the Stewart trade for a 2 month rental this year despite Stewarts value whatever that may be. 

[Riverbrian]

Just now, DJL44 said:

Gosh I hope not. That would be waving a white flag on 2026. Outman turns 29 in May and he's been bad for two straight years. He's past his prime just like Manny Margot. Nobody will pick him up on waivers. They'll be able to sign him as a minor league free agent if they cut him from the 40-man roster.

Maybe... It's possible that the Twins think they can pass him through waivers but regardless... the Twins wanted him and they will want him to pass through waivers. 

However... I can't see any logic in acquiring him without a level of a believe in him from the front office that stretches beyond the belief in him expressed by the fan on Twinsdaily.  

If the Twins believe in him... others may as well. They are all looking at the same data.  

Cautionary tale. Last year... 80% of Twinsdaily... Maybe 90% of Twinsdaily were willing to toss Austin Martin on the scrap heap. Certainly a different vibe a year later.   

[The Great Hambino]

3 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Nice to have Martin get some press, but the thinking of Falvey and the FO are too confusing for me to speculate.  Having acquired Roden and Outman Falvey might continue to push for playing time for "his" acquisitions despite their lack of production.  

Wouldn't Martin also be one of "his" acquisitions as part of the return of the most valuable player that he's sent out the door thus far?  No way Outman stays at Martin's expense.  Maybe some of the more expensive OFers, but not Martin

Roden has options, some success at AAA, barely 150 MLB PAs, and will be coming off an injury.  No chance they give up on him (no reason to yet), but hey'll have no problem starting him out in St Paul if there's a numbers crunch

[Doctor Gast]

It doesn't make any sense when they accepted Rodon & Outman in trades. When we had LH OFers Larnach, Wallner, Keirsey, Clemens and Emma on the roster with Jenkins not far behind. True that most are questionable or unproven but what are Rodon & Outman?

IMO, Keaschall makes a much better LFer than 2Bman & Martin makes a better 2Bman than LFer when focused there. Twins & fans have to change their mindset in how to evaluate their players from HR sluggers that strikeout a lot when you need someone OB, that can't run the bases or play defense. To someone who gets OB when you need, runs bases, bunts & plays defense. Martin is a better hitter against LHPs but has a good OBP against RHPs, so he can be a good everyday player.

Twins have spent too much time on Martin to force him into a player he isn't. It's about time they let him be the outstanding player that he is.

[Doctor Gast]

50 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Maybe... It's possible that the Twins think they can pass him through waivers but regardless... the Twins wanted him and they will want him to pass through waivers. 

However... I can't see any logic in acquiring him without a level of a believe in him from the front office that stretches beyond the belief in him expressed by the fan on Twinsdaily.  

If the Twins believe in him... others may as well. They are all looking at the same data.  

Cautionary tale. Last year... 80% of Twinsdaily... Maybe 90% of Twinsdaily were willing to toss Austin Martin on the scrap heap. Certainly a different vibe a year later.   

I can truthfully say that I was one of the few who have supported Martin throughout his ordeals with the Twins.

[terrydactyls]

2026 Opening Day Lineup

C: Jeffers or Pereda

1B: Clemens (until Jenkins arrives, then Fedko)

2B: Keaschell

SS: Lee

3B: Lewis

LF: Martin

CF: Buxton:

RF: Fedko

P1: Lopez

P2: Ryan

P3: Ober

P4: SWR

P5 thru 9: Any of the 712 "can't miss" minor league pitchers

RP1 Lawyerson, Sands, and seven of the aforementioned 712 "can't miss" pitchers that the FO moves to relief

Bench Rodon, Fitzgerald, Larnach

This is a payroll of about $72M-$73M.  Pohlad's are happy.  New investors are happy.  Potenntial Buyers are happy.  All the players (except maybe Buxton, Lopez and Ryan) are happy.  The fans?  No one cares about them.

[DJL44]

11 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

2026 Opening Day Lineup

They're not going to trade Wallner and keep Larnach. BTW - there is a whole separate thread for 2026 roster guesses.

[mikelink45]

3 hours ago, old nurse said:

Martin is his acquisition. Except for Buxton, they all were his acquisitions 

Where does Lavine fit?  Which of them did all the early acquiring?

[mikelink45]

2 hours ago, The Great Hambino said:

Wouldn't Martin also be one of "his" acquisitions as part of the return of the most valuable player that he's sent out the door thus far?  No way Outman stays at Martin's expense.  Maybe some of the more expensive OFers, but not Martin

Roden has options, some success at AAA, barely 150 MLB PAs, and will be coming off an injury.  No chance they give up on him (no reason to yet), but hey'll have no problem starting him out in St Paul if there's a numbers crunch

I replied to another posting - which players did Lavine acquire before Falvey took over all the acquisitions?

[old nurse]

20 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

Where does Lavine fit?  Which of them did all the early acquiring?

Sigh.  Who do you think was the one who had to sign off on the major trades. 

[jmlease1]

43 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

Where does Lavine fit?  Which of them did all the early acquiring?

Is this where the conspiracy stories start that anything good that happened for the Twins under this front office were entirely because of Thad, and everything bad is only on Derek?

[TwinsDr2021]

3 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

It doesn't make any sense when they accepted Rodon & Outman in trades. When we had LH OFers Larnach, Wallner, Keirsey, Clemens and Emma on the roster with Jenkins not far behind. True that most are questionable or unproven but what are Rodon & Outman?

IMO, Keaschall makes a much better LFer than 2Bman & Martin makes a better 2Bman than LFer when focused there. Twins & fans have to change their mindset in how to evaluate their players from HR sluggers that strikeout a lot when you need someone OB, that can't run the bases or play defense. To someone who gets OB when you need, runs bases, bunts & plays defense. Martin is a better hitter against LHPs but has a good OBP against RHPs, so he can be a good everyday player.

Twins have spent too much time on Martin to force him into a player he isn't. It's about time they let him be the outstanding player that he is.

IMO they shouldn't move Keaschall to left, since the next two best prospects are outfielders and with Buxton and likely Larnach or Wallner taking the third spot, when and where do Jenkins or Erod play? I would put Keaschall at 1B, if need be he is young and athletic enough to be moved. 

[DocBauer]

If this version of Martin is, more or less, the real version, then he has a useful role in 2026. I'm still worried a lack of pop/power is going to see him come crashing down. But 30 Dbls, a handful of Trips and HR, he's got enough pop to succeed with a high AVG and high OB%. Combined that with speed and much improved defense, he can be a quality backup/part-timer, or the starting LF.

Fedko is an unknown as he never put his game together until this season. But his mix of power, speed, and OB ability makes him worthy of at least a look. He's a potentially better version of Martin, about 6 months younger as well. 

Long term, Gonzalez is the better prospect. But how soon might he be ML ready? But he's RH, has a good arm, seems to be able to HIT, and has more power than Martin. He doesn't have Martin's speed by any means, but he might be the more dangerous hitter.

But Martin has taken advantage of his opportunity and if he continues to run with it, he's got a spot on the 26 man to begin 2026. As much as Buxton likes batting leadoff, I'd sure like to see him hit #3 behind a combination of Martin and Keaschall to allow more RBI opportunities for his power to be more effective.

I think it's generally accepted that Rodriguez and Jenkins joining Buxton as the primary starting 3 is ideal. But even if that happened opening day...in an ideal universe...Martin still has a role on the team. 

In this scenario, Wallner becomes the primary DH and part time corner OF.

But the pattern here is still the same in that THIS version of Martin is the #1 RH OF at the moment, with Fedko and Gonzalez behind him in whatever order of preference you like. 

Roden is still deserving of a shot. While his MILB hitting hasn't translated yet, he really doesn't have a lot of ML PA yet. (I think his previous 1B experience should be explored more as well.) But pure talent and potential, he's behind Rodriguez and Jenkins for a LH OF role. And yet, it's possible he and Martin could form a quasi-platoon in LF to begin next season. So again, Martin has a role almost any way the initial 2026 OF lays out.

I sort of like Clemens coming back as a LH, power utility player. But I don't want him in a daily role. They should be aiming higher than that.

I think Larnach is moved. 

I believe Keirsey and McCusker are removed from the 40 man and offered MILB deals. Will they accept them? I don't believe Outman has any role other than the one Keirsey had for the majority of 2025: defensive backup and PR. I'd remove him from the 40 man and offer him a MILB deal as well. I'm not convinced the Twins will do that, but it's what I'd do. 50/50 they keep him as an "asset" until someone else appears ready to bump him off the roster.

5 OF spots and Buxton, Wallner, Martin, Rodriguez, Jenkins, Roden, Gonzalez, and Fedko are the best 8 guys to fill those 5 roles. That's based on production, talent, and age. (Clemens and possibly Keaschall can help out some as well). Outman remains a 9th option, but I really don't see the need. Any of the others offer greater upside than a 29yo who simply can't hit at the ML level.

But it's unlikely Martin isn't on the opening roster. How big his role is doesn't just depend on the prospects, it's also up to him to continue producing in his current manner.

[LA Vikes Fan]

6 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

We all need to get a re-set on Brock Stewart's value, though. I think it was a bad trade trade because Stewart was worth more to the Twins then and now than Outman is/will be, IMHO. But while talented, his injury history makes him someone that simply can't be counted on to fill a role in almost anyone's bullpen. Dodgers acquired him and he threw 4 times before going on the IL, and it seems unlikely that he'll be on their playoff roster at this point. Are they even going to offer him arbitration for next season?

But this is why we got such a nothingburger for Stewart at the deadline. Other MLB teams saw him as a guy who couldn't be counted on. They're not wrong.

I do fear that the Twins will fall into the sunk cost fallacy with Outman and treat losing him on the waiver as being worse than spending a roster spot on him, which seems crazy to me. 26-man roster spots have value and that value is higher than Outman.

Martin has earned a spot for next season, they're not giving up on Wallner (though maybe they should be thinking about 1B and/or DH for 2026), and thankfully Buxton has a no-trade. That leaves 2-3 spots for the OF, and I would not waste one on Outman. Roden is going to get another shot I'm sure (whether anyone likes it or not) and frankly has more upside at this point even if we all hated the trade that was part of bringing him here.

Well said, particularly on Stewart. Stewart is great for the 35 innings a year that you get; then his arm falls off and he's just not available. It's very possible he will not make the Dodgers 40 man roster because they are squeezed so who knows, he might be back in MN next year.

I think Martin has already earned the LF job to start next season. I completely agree that we need to move Wallner to a 1B/DH role, but that's not going to happen unless he gets in a lot of practice doing it in the offseason. I also think Roden is going to get a long look next year. I suspect we will see Buxton, Martin, Roden, and unfortunately Outman as next year's OFs at the start with Wallner or Jenkins/Gonzalez depending on whether Wallner is still a full time OF. Why Outman? They are obsessed with having a regular CF backup for Buxton and Outman is as close as they have to that guy. 

[mikelink45]

4 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

Is this where the conspiracy stories start that anything good that happened for the Twins under this front office were entirely because of Thad, and everything bad is only on Derek?

Nope - they both fail

[ashbury]

5 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

Is this where the conspiracy stories start that anything good that happened for the Twins under this front office were entirely because of Thad, and everything bad is only on Derek?

Based on 2025 results it could be a working hypothesis.

[sweetmusicviola16]

9 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I can truthfully say that I was one of the few who have supported Martin throughout his ordeals with the Twins.

I been right there with you hoping Martin would get a fair shot and not be discarded.

[stringer bell]

I've been willing to give up on Martin a few times in his Twins tenure. I haven't seen all of his games this year, but he does appear to have turned a corner. His defense is much improved and he is a capable base stealer, but he has made too many base running mistakes to be considered a real asset on the bases. He's reaching base at an above-average rate and if he can continue to do so, he has a role for the 2026 Twins.

There isn't much utility there--his best defensive spot is far and away left field and he can only play three positions in total Martin's skill set fits with the direction I hope the team goes with their position players--more speed and contact and less "three true outcomes".

[the_brute_squad]

I'm not sure why everyone is convinced Larnach will be gone and Wallner stays. Wallner's 20 plus HR's and only 40 RBI's in a weird stat, and indicates not much clutch with RISP. I could see this being a complete rebuild and trading both. Throw in all of the chips and bring up Rodriguez and Jenkins and let the youth movement begin with Lee, Keaschall, Jenkins, and Rodriguez. I'll even throw in Lewis' name for youth movement purposes.  

[HrbieFan]

On 9/23/2025 at 7:50 AM, Otaknam said:

Why Fedko didn’t get a chance at the ML level is head scratching. He had a great season, hit for power and average, has excellent speed and steals bases, and bat right handed, which they need in the outfield. Why not cut Outman, who has done nothing but strike out, and give Fedko a shot? 

Would probably cost the cheap a_s Pohlads a few thousand bucks if Outman were cut. I'm surprised they haven't went with a 24 man roster to save $$$

[jmlease1]

1 hour ago, HrbieFan said:

Would probably cost the cheap a_s Pohlads a few thousand bucks if Outman were cut. I'm surprised they haven't went with a 24 man roster to save $$$

well, they did it in '87. Even the playoff roster was only 24 (which is just insane). Hell, the 40-man never went past 36! Talk about Cheap Pohlads. MLB PA would never allow it today, kind of amazed it got by them back then.