Week in Review: From Bad to Worst

[Fire Dan Gladden]

35 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Who on the position side are they running out there that says 26 is the focus? Martin, Outman, Clemens, Fitzgerald, Larnach? (Could have said Roden) sure you can say Lee and Lewis (But who else do they have?) The position side of the 40 man is such a joke it is filled with players likely to be back (Buxton, Jeffers, Lewis, Lee, Wallne, Keaschallr) or guys that probably shouldn't back (Larnach, Outman, Martin, Fitzgerald, Clemens, Julien, Gasper and Vazquez)

 

I don't know if I would call it a joke right now, just very young and inexperienced. There are still a few impact names relatively close in the minors. The bigger issue is the inability of Twins ownership to allow the the team to spend money on the right guys through this growth process.

Like I said before, the next 24 months will be very painful.

[bunsen82]

6 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

The market for Ryan was fairly small at the deadline. The offseason will allow for more suitors. The effort to move Ryan was there, somebody will meet their asking price this offseason. If the Twins feel the need to sign a veteran SP, it will be somebody just hanging on at the tail end of their career that can be had for a song.

There is no reason to believe this is anything other than a complete teardown. If 2026 was a focus, they would be making aggressive offensive moves (acquiring help-now players) instead of passive moves (dumping salary). This team will probably be the 2nd worst team in MLB next year. The only potential positive spin is the number of high-profile rookie to 2-year players that could turn things quicker than expected.

I, like a few others, believe the Twins will only be concerned about going as cheap as possible until the new CBA takes effect and the long-term MLB financial situation (read: salary cap) is worked out. At that point, they will probably revisit selling the team.

It is going to be a very long, very painful, upcoming 24 months for Twins fans.

There is no advantage to tank for multiple years beyond 2 like in the past.  So yes I do agree with you I think they plan to be competitive in 2027.  How competitive in 2026 who knows.  There are 4 players to shed salary with 1. Lopez, Jeffers, Larnach and then Ryan.  That is effectively it.  I see minimal possibility of Jeffers getting traded.  That leaves Larnach who I think is a given and then Lopez and Ryan.  W will see if they find suitable trade partners.  

[Jeff K]

12 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

You need to win with contact,  good eyes  walks,  and solid power.   Wallners OBP is .320.  If Wallner is the 2023 and 2024 version that is a great Wallner .250 BA/.370 OBP/500+ OPS.   I don't know why he has regressed so much this year.  I still think he is in the plans for next year and has more upside than Larnach.  

Who said I ignored Power,   Culpepper and Jenkins are both very good power hitters,  Culpepper especially for his position.   They are different players and providing much more than primarily Power which Wallner relies on.  If the Power or contact goes away you are left with a Gallo.  

Wallner needs to buy a first baseman's glove and figure out a new position this winter.  Otherwise, he simply can't continue to butcher right field.  I am pretty much ok with moving on from any and all of the Twins crummy fielding players.  Julien, Larnach, Miranda and probably Wallner all need to play somewhere else.  And that's not touching the other players who ought not be on the roster next season.  

[tarheeltwinsfan]

2 hours ago, chinmusic said:

What country?  i'm gonna go to the game tonight.

What a contrast. For the Jays, it's let the good times roll. 

Anyway, it's an opportunity to see this Twins group in the flesh. (with "the experience" on the mound, no less)

No expectations, just going to take it all in. Que sera, sera.

 

 

Have fun at the game Chin. Drink a Killebrew Root Beer for me.

[TwinsDr2021]

5 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I don't know if I would call it a joke right now, just very young and inexperienced. There are still a few impact names relatively close in the minors. The bigger issue is the inability of Twins ownership to allow the the team to spend money on the right guys through this growth process.

Like I said before, the next 24 months will be very painful.

Erod, Lee and Keaschall or the only position players under the age of 25, Raya, Abel, SWR and Bradley on the pitching side, This is not a young team, inexperienced? Yes, but not young. Now they aren't a old team either with only handful of guys over 30, but only two guys between the young and old that are studs. (Ryan and Lopez) and whole lot of players they are trying to figure out. But IMO what makes it a joke, is when you look at each player most legitimately deserve a 40 man spot on a team, just not all on the same team. 

[Vanimal46]

1 hour ago, bunsen82 said:

If Ryan had to be moved he would have been moved at the deadline.  This is the issue most don't want to discuss - why was he kept?

For all intents and purposes they were open to trading Ryan at the deadline. They didn’t get the value they wanted from Boston. In the offseason it opens up the opportunity of more teams getting involved and creating a bidding war. 

I don’t think Falvey wants to trade Ryan, but Joe may force their hand by requesting a trade. Unless we throw a boat load of cash at him, the chances of getting an extension done is near 0%. 

[Nshore]

The Twins are merely returning to their Washington Senator roots: "First in war, first in peace, and last in the American League".  Let it happen.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

3 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Have fun at the game Chin. Drink a Killebrew Root Beer for me.

I like to walk along an old farm road near where I live in North Carolina. There are soy beans fields, hay fields and some woods. On my walks, I've encountered wild turkeys, deer, coyotes, red shoulder hawks, owls, turtles, snakes, mice, groundhogs, and numerous song birds. Today all I saw were several wooly worms scurrying across the road.  The fluffy white clouds were beautiful against a "Carolina Blue" sky.

[TwinsDr2021]

55 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

How can you say yeah, Falvey & Co are terrible but Martin still isn't a legit MLB starter. IMO. It's irresponsible to evaluate Martin by the way he's been managed. Twins plans to get rid Castro & the hole that it'd create, They invented Martin to be their utility player. The problem is that he's not an utility player but he is a legit starting 2Bman once given a legit chance. Many thought that Rooker wasn't a legit MLB starter. Yet he was more suitable to play the OF & a better fit for the Falvey's hitting philosophies than Martin. Remove Falvey & Co. from the equation, give Martin adequate time to readjust to stick at 2B & his old swing. Then I predict that he'll be that OB machine, terror on the bases & slick fielding 2Bman that the Twins desperately need. If he doesn't change in that time then yeah, add him to the heap of players that this regime have broken.

Where you one of the people saying Keirsay was legit? Honestly can't remember if you were, anyway. 
Austin Martin has done nothing to deserve the praise you are giving him. If he wasn't a first round pick and one of the players the Twins got for Berrios, nobody would know him because he hasn't done enough to deserve notice. His career minor league SLG (.365) is below is OBP (.399), with a .266 BA. Luis Arraez career minor league SLG (.413), OBP (.385) and BA .331. Difference Arraez did that all before age 22. 

Martin as a 26 year old in AAA (.319/.420/.398/.829), while they look good, they are not, they would look better maybe if he stole bases. He is a utility player because that is what he is, has this FO screwed him up, mostly likely yes, they are terrible. 

[Senior Softball Guy]

2 hours ago, bunsen82 said:

If you are trying to trade him in the offseason you would be trying to show he is healthy.   Right wrong or indifferent I think this is a case of Pablo feels healthy and wants to pitch again.  

I don't see any scenario where we trade Pablo and Ryan in the offseason.  You are keeping 1 to lead the young guys.  Now getting him healthy increases you options but even still Pablo would not be valued anywhere near what Ryan would get you right now.  

I have an argument going on in my own head.  I really think the front office wants to put a good product on the field next year.  That means they have Ryan and Pablo.  The issue is that leaves 2 starting spots for about 5-6 arms (Matthews, SWR, Abel, Bradley, Festa, maybe Ohl).  That tends to portend a trade.  However, a trade would likely include a high end pitching prospect in return so likely not creating another hole unless the only return is hitters.  I just don't quite see how they plan to manage this roster.  

Ober? That's a lot of chopped liver to be overlooked.

[bunsen82]

1 minute ago, Senior Softball Guy said:

Ober? That's a lot of chopped liver to be overlooked.

If you have read my previous write ups on Ober,  Ober in his current form is a back of the rotation arm.  He has declining health and velocity.  Not to say he can't be a leader,  but Lopez and/or Ryan are #1/high end #2 arms that can lead a staff.  Lets say we do get hot next year.  If you want any chance in the playoffs, you likely need 1 of them.   

[Parfigliano]

2 hours ago, bunsen82 said:

If you are trying to trade him in the offseason you would be trying to show he is healthy.   Right wrong or indifferent I think this is a case of Pablo feels healthy and wants to pitch again.  

I don't see any scenario where we trade Pablo and Ryan in the offseason.  You are keeping 1 to lead the young guys.  Now getting him healthy increases you options but even still Pablo would not be valued anywhere near what Ryan would get you right now.  

I have an argument going on in my own head.  I really think the front office wants to put a good product on the field next year.  That means they have Ryan and Pablo.  The issue is that leaves 2 starting spots for about 5-6 arms (Matthews, SWR, Abel, Bradley, Festa, maybe Ohl).  That tends to portend a trade.  However, a trade would likely include a high end pitching prospect in return so likely not creating another hole unless the only return is hitters.  I just don't quite see how they plan to manage this roster.  

I have zero faith in this organizations present ability to evaluate/develop/draft a hitter or pitcher.  Leaving Falvey-Rocco and their people in charge after this year is crazy.

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, lunemann said:

I have zero faith this is actually the case. Pohlads will want a near minimum payroll so I expect Ryan and Lopez are gone in the offseason. 100+ losses is a near lock in my opinion for 2026. If things go poorly it could get 2025 Rockies ugly next year.

I agree.

[bunsen82]

3 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

I have zero faith in this organizations present ability to evaluate/develop/draft a hitter or pitcher.  Leaving Falvey-Rocco and their people in charge after this year is crazy.

Ryan, Jeffers,  Jax, Varland,  Ober, Duran  would disagree.   Please don't make hyperbole takes that have no basis in reality.  

Even still I am fine with moving on from Baldelli.  Case in point though look at Popkins.  Everyone railed on him.  I do think we need a mix of power and hit tool.  The difference is there is better hitters in Toronto than the Twins right now.  

[NYCTK]

36 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

I see minimal possibility of Jeffers getting traded.

I thought Jeffers was going to be put on the trading block if he declines an extension, but now with Adley Rutschman being made available I can't imagine there's much of a market for Jeffers left. 

[Markdumont25]

3 hours ago, bunsen82 said:

Has the prospects that have come up struggled yes.   Up to this point the only one that has succeeded elsewhere is Rooker but he struggled at other stops as well.  We have found players to be replacement players in the field,  we have struggled to find that star.  Keaschall looks really good right now,  and a key piece to build around.  Lee's approach has been so much better lately.  A 10-12 pitch at bat yesterday in the 1st with a hard contact but got an out but moved the runner.   Those 2 look like something to build around (and tend to go against your thesis).  The Twins have developed pitching very well,  its just some of it came from outside the organization.  You don't have a Varland, Jax, or Duran if you can't develop players.   Or a Joe Ryan for that matter.  Jeffers has been an 8 WAR over his career but as a whole the batters have struggled.  

The talent coming looks better than the previous group of prospects.  Jenkins and Culpupper both have very good contact rates, power and good defensive skills.  We are getting into the more 5 tool prospects that have a much higher probability of succeeding.  You then have another group with good skills but slightly flawed in Rodriguez and Gonzalez.  Can a Fedko find lightening in a bottle and be a lower prospect that succeeds - it is very possible.   The farm system is strong.  We have some players and pitchers to build around.  If they do trade Ryan it will be for a haul. 

If you start going to analysts now vs day of the sale, they will tell you the Twins got very good returns.  Yes a few have struggled with their 1st taste with the big league team.  Other than the Stewart trade,  which I can still make an argument for,  everything else looked like very good returns and in some aspects selling high. Jax, Varland, and Coloumbe have had some rough outings.  Castro and Bader have both looked like back up players.  3 players have done well.  Duran, Correa, and Ty France.  Go look at Abel's stats.  Moves up a level and struggles.  Comes back the next year and dominates.  I am ok with giving him more reps this month.  Getting him used to this level,  seeing if he can increase his strikeout ability.  Bradley's outing yesterday showed what he has become,  struggled with command early,  settled down for 3 shutdown innings afterward.  He doesn't have a lot of confidence or feel for the ball right now.  The split finger looked good.  If it becomes a weapon then teams can't load up on the fastball.    

Personally I think the new window starts in 2027.   We have a pretty deep Starting pitching for now,  we have some decent hitting prospects coming up,  we need to rebuild the bullpen.   

I don't think Keachall's success means much yet. See Royce Lewis and Matt Wallner as an example of why. Yes, Lee has been trending well recently but his overall body of work so far is not very inspiring. To be clear, I'm not ready to give up on any of these guys but I still think it's fair to say that as a group they've played below expectations.

Our starting pitching potential is deep but right now most are unproven. There's a chance a few of them are big hits, but there's also a chance they aren't. We don't know. And it seems very possible that Ryan and even Lopez are on their way out which makes the entire rotation a big question mark. 

Obviously future prospects that have yet to taste Big League play or even enter the organization yet (via a Ryan trade) are question marks as well. They could be a better generation but the struggles of our former top prospects could be a sign of organizational struggles with development. Again, we don't know.

My point is that going from looking like a team on the rise (2023) to have our entire future be comprised of "hopefullys" and "maybes" is depressing. As I said, no one can predict how things will go and to a certain degree this is the nature of the beast. There's always going to be ebbs and flows with any organization. But it certainly feels like a lot of the current misfortunes were unforced errors and the best I can say about the immediate future is it's uncertain... But this organization has lost the benefit of the doubt so I'm not seeing much reason for optimism until proven otherwise.

[bunsen82]

3 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

I thought Jeffers was going to be put on the trading block if he declines an extension, but now with Adley Rutschman being made available I can't imagine there's much of a market for Jeffers left. 

I would be interested in buying low on Rutschman.  Likely need a 3 way trade.   We are both rebuilding teams, they don't want a Lopez, Larnach ect.   

[NYCTK]

1 minute ago, Markdumont25 said:

I don't think Keachall's success means much yet.

I agree, and I'm made even more cautious by the fact others here seem to think he's not good enough to play 2B. If he can't play 2B, that leaves only LF or 1B for him. And the simple fact is I'm not sure he's a good enough hitter to be all that valuable as a 1B. 

[bunsen82]

20 minutes ago, Markdumont25 said:

I don't think Keachall's success means much yet. See Royce Lewis and Matt Wallner as an example of why. Yes, Lee has been trending well recently but his overall body of work so far is not very inspiring. To be clear, I'm not ready to give up on any of these guys but I still think it's fair to say that as a group they've played below expectations.

Our starting pitching potential is deep but right now most are unproven. There's a chance a few of them are big hits, but there's also a chance they aren't. We don't know. And it seems very possible that Ryan and even Lopez are on their way out which makes the entire rotation a big question mark. 

Obviously future prospects that have yet to taste Big League play or even enter the organization yet (via a Ryan trade) are question marks as well. They could be a better generation but the struggles of our former top prospects could be a sign of organizational struggles with development. Again, we don't know.

My point is that going from looking like a team on the rise (2023) to have our entire future be comprised of "hopefullys" and "maybes" is depressing. As I said, no one can predict how things will go and to a certain degree this is the nature of the beast. There's always going to be ebbs and flows with any organization. But it certainly feels like a lot of the current misfortunes were unforced errors and the best I can say about the immediate future is it's uncertain... But this organization has lost the benefit of the doubt so I'm not seeing much reason for optimism until proven otherwise.

We had 2 more years of running with the core.  So yes I can see why they decided to sell, especially the bullpen which is the most volatile group.   

Yes we have some maybes,  but they have more pedigree and ability than most of the players we have tried other than Lewis.    I understand the frustration I am there also.  I just think the turnaround will be quicker that most think and that this will be more of a retool than a rebuild.  I could be wrong.  

[RpR]

5 hours ago, rv78 said:

I for one wouldn't take much advice from Correa. He supposedly worked with Miranda in 2023 and 2024 and look where that got him.

Part of a baseball record.

[Vanimal46]

40 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

I would be interested in buying low on Rutschman.  Likely need a 3 way trade.   We are both rebuilding teams, they don't want a Lopez, Larnach ect.   

Life moves quickly in baseball. 2 years ago Adley was the top prospect in all of baseball. If anyone called for him Baltimore would have laughed and hung up the phone. 

[DJL44]

5 hours ago, USAFChief said:

I just don't think the media is responsible for the dumb **** Lewis says. 

Royce Lewis interviews remind me of Nuke LaLoosh. Someone needs to teach him some cliches.

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, bunsen82 said:

Ryan, Jeffers,  Jax, Varland,  Ober, Duran  would disagree.   Please don't make hyperbole takes that have no basis in reality.  

Even still I am fine with moving on from Baldelli.  Case in point though look at Popkins.  Everyone railed on him.  I do think we need a mix of power and hit tool.  The difference is there is better hitters in Toronto than the Twins right now.  

So 3 relief pitchers, Ober, a traded for starter and Jeffers for development since 2017. That is the Hill you want to stand on for this Front office?

Remember in 2017 when they got the job, this was the prime job to get, they had vets in Mauer, Dozier, Escobar, young guns Berrios, Buxton, Sano, Kepler, Rosario, Polanco,  and others like Gibson, Pressly, Rogers, Duffey, Busenitz, Tonkin, Jorge, former #1 picks AK, Gordon, Jay, Stewart, top 100 prospects pitchers Gonzo, Romero, other prospects like Garver, Mejia, Chargois, Javier, Burdi, Arraez, Wade, Hildenberger, Reed, Melotakis, Thorpe, Baddoo, Ynoa and the number 1 overall pick.  It was basically their job to figure out the pitching to go with those, by the time they did, the needed hitting again.

This FO has been pretty darn good or probably better than average on getting guys to the majors, but haven't figured out of to surround those guys with really good players. (They tried with Donaldson and Correa and brought in other vets to fill roles but that worked so well either)  

[Mike Sixel]

10 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

So 3 relief pitchers, Ober, a traded for starter and Jeffers for development since 2017. That is the Hill you want to stand on for this Front office?

Remember in 2017 when they got the job, this was the prime job to get, they had vets in Mauer, Dozier, Escobar, young guns Berrios, Buxton, Sano, Kepler, Rosario, Polanco,  and others like Gibson, Pressly, Rogers, Duffey, Busenitz, Tonkin, Jorge, former #1 picks AK, Gordon, Jay, Stewart, top 100 prospects pitchers Gonzo, Romero, other prospects like Garver, Mejia, Chargois, Javier, Burdi, Arraez, Wade, Hildenberger, Reed, Melotakis, Thorpe, Baddoo, Ynoa and the number 1 overall pick.  It was basically their job to figure out the pitching to go with those, by the time they did, the needed hitting again.

This FO has been pretty darn good or probably better than average on getting guys to the majors, but haven't figured out of to surround those guys with really good players. (They tried with Donaldson and Correa and brought in other vets to fill roles but that worked so well either)  

This FO inherited a terrible farm system. Just brutal top 5 picks from the previous years. That's no excuse for what they've done since, but this farm was terrible. 

[rv78]

3 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

You know those guys in the minors are better hitters than Wallner? That's quite the leap. 

The data is clear, it's a lot easier to score runs with power than average. Because it's really hard to string together hits. 

I agree with the first statement but disagree with the 2nd.

Wallner and current company all were pretty good hitters in the minors. That doesn't always translate to the same thing once they get to the majors as we can NOW see. The current crop of young hitters in the minors may not be any different.

As for power scoring runs easier than average..... how did that game on Saturday when the final score was 3-7 against the White Sox go? The Twins hit 3 HRs and the White Sox hit 2. I can point to many more games like it this season, and the past 5 years, where the Twins went and out-homered the opposition and still lost. If it is easier then why aren't they scoring more runs? Look at Toronto this year, they have 154 HR and scored 640 runs where the Twins have 150 HR and scored 537 runs. Over 100 runs less on just 4 HR less. The problem is no one is getting on base because they are all trying to be power hitters. Maybe guys like Lewis, Lee, Larnach, Wallner, Jeffers should be trying to become better contact hitters and quit trying to replicate the bomba squad from 2019. (Which is what I think they are being told to do).

[bunsen82]

24 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

So 3 relief pitchers, Ober, a traded for starter and Jeffers for development since 2017. That is the Hill you want to stand on for this Front office?

Remember in 2017 when they got the job, this was the prime job to get, they had vets in Mauer, Dozier, Escobar, young guns Berrios, Buxton, Sano, Kepler, Rosario, Polanco,  and others like Gibson, Pressly, Rogers, Duffey, Busenitz, Tonkin, Jorge, former #1 picks AK, Gordon, Jay, Stewart, top 100 prospects pitchers Gonzo, Romero, other prospects like Garver, Mejia, Chargois, Javier, Burdi, Arraez, Wade, Hildenberger, Reed, Melotakis, Thorpe, Baddoo, Ynoa and the number 1 overall pick.  It was basically their job to figure out the pitching to go with those, by the time they did, the needed hitting again.

This FO has been pretty darn good or probably better than average on getting guys to the majors, but haven't figured out of to surround those guys with really good players. (They tried with Donaldson and Correa and brought in other vets to fill roles but that worked so well either)  

Yes lets just forget Ryan.    

[Mike Sixel]

18 minutes ago, rv78 said:

I agree with the first statement but disagree with the 2nd.

Wallner and current company all were pretty good hitters in the minors. That doesn't always translate to the same thing once they get to the majors as we can NOW see. The current crop of young hitters in the minors may not be any different.

As for power scoring runs easier than average..... how did that game on Saturday when the final score was 3-7 against the White Sox go? The Twins hit 3 HRs and the White Sox hit 2. I can point to many more games like it this season, and the past 5 years, where the Twins went and out-homered the opposition and still lost. If it is easier then why aren't they scoring more runs? Look at Toronto this year, they have 154 HR and scored 640 runs where the Twins have 150 HR and scored 537 runs. Over 100 runs less on just 4 HR less. The problem is no one is getting on base because they are all trying to be power hitters. Maybe guys like Lewis, Lee, Larnach, Wallner, Jeffers should be trying to become better contact hitters and quit trying to replicate the bomba squad from 2019. (Which is what I think they are being told to do).

You can disagree all you want, but the math is on the internet for anyone that is interested. 

[USAFChief]

3 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

You can disagree all you want, but the math is on the internet for anyone that is interested. 

Which is weird, because not that long ago the math all over the internet worshipped at the alter of OBP.

 

[Markdumont25]

2 hours ago, bunsen82 said:

We had 2 more years of running with the core.  So yes I can see why they decided to sell, especially the bullpen which is the most volatile group.   

Yes we have some maybes,  but they have more pedigree and ability than most of the players we have tried other than Lewis.    I understand the frustration I am there also.  I just think the turnaround will be quicker that most think and that this will be more of a retool than a rebuild.  I could be wrong.  

Yea fair enough. And I hope I'm wrong!

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

This FO inherited a terrible farm system. Just brutal top 5 picks from the previous years. That's no excuse for what they've done since, but this farm was terrible. 

agreed it ended up being terrible but it wasn't being thought of that way, until they all failed. (not blaming this FO for that)

Buxton top 2 prospect in 2016

Berrios top 20 prospect in 2016

Kepler top 50 in 2016

Jay top 80 prospect in 2016

Gordon top was top 60 prospect in 2017 ( BA - 60, MLB - 50, BP - 48), top 100 in 2016

Gonzo top 100 prospect in 17 and 18

Romero top 100 prospects in 2018

AK top 30 prospect in 2017 (by 1) , 2019, 2020, 21

Lewis top 50 or so prospect from 18-22

Javier was close to a top 100 prospects in 18

Stewart had fallen out of top prospects

That doesn't include prospects that weren't highly ranked but ended up in the majors, Arraez, Ynoa, Garver, Miranda, Wade, Baddoo.

 

If that is inheriting a terrible farm system, Wow! (I get that it is hard to recover from the Gonzo, Romero, Jay, and Stewart fiasco, but wouldn't a good front office, have used them for trade bait in 17 or 19 when the team was going to the playoffs?) 

And again they inherited a starting Outfield (Buxton, Rosario, Kepler), as starting infield (Escobar, Polanco, Dozier, Mauer he did put up 4.1 WAR in 17, Sano)  and the number 1 pick. 

Lets not pretend the cupboard was bare.