With Emmanuel Clase Off the Table, Twins Hold Cards in Bullpen Market

[Sherry Cerny]

Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images

Major League Baseball placed Emmanuel Clase on administrative leave until at least the end of August Monday, as they investigate Clase's connections to the same suspicious betting activity that previously led to the same steps being taken with fellow Cleveland Guardians pitcher Luis L. Ortiz. It's impossible to know how this will end, but a world in which Clase is permanently banned from the sport for involvement in betting on baseball certainly exists. In a moment, rumors of trade interest in Clase fell shockingly silent. He's not gping anywhere.

With Clase unavailable, the Twins now hold two of the most coveted late-inning arms potentially in play. Both Jhoan Duran (the established closer, with an elite ground-ball rate and overpowering raw stuff) and Griffin Jax (two of the game's nastiest individual pitches and an extraordinary differential between his strikeout and walk rates) could attract premium offers from contenders desperate to stabilize their bullpens. If the front office is open to a mini-retool or reallocation of resources, they could capitalize on this scarcity.

It's rare that any reliever with control beyond the season in question hits the trade market at the level of performance Duran and Jax have established. Clase was a rare exception. Now, the Twins are the only team shopping a reliever of this caliber—and they have two of them available. That increases the chances not only of an offer coming in that the team likes enough to make a move, but of their being able to play suitors off one another—or even to force them to decide between two different asking prices for the two relief aces. The Twins could ask for top prospects or young MLB-ready talent, especially from teams who envision making multiple runs into October, of which Duran or Jax could be vital parts.

The last time a seller had this kind of leverage in the reliever market was in 2016, when the Yankees had both Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller. They ultimately traded Chapman for Gleyber Torres, Adam Warren, Billy McKinney and Rashad Crawford, and Miller for J.P. Feyereisen, Clint Frazier, Ben Heller and Justus Sheffield. Of that group, only Torres went on to become an impact player, but those returns infused the Yankees system with so much depth that it benefited them for years—especially once Torres emerged as an All-Star-caliber infielder.

That's what's possible for the Twins in the next two days. They might still believe in themselves enough to want to retain one or both of these pitchers to maintain their bullpen dominance for the next two-plus years. If they're listening on them, though—and we know they are, based on reports throughout the league—they're in a great negotiating position.

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[tony&rodney]

Only possible if a team feels the need to add a reliever in order to make a run in the postseason. The Phillies seem most in need but Seattle, LAD, Milwaukee, and the Cubbies would all benefit from adding Jax or Duran. I would pay a high price for Jax/Duran if I were one of those teams. Healthy dominant relief pitchers with 2+ years of control are not common on the market. Negotiations will go to the wire. I'm not expecting major moves though.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

ESPN trade rankings has both Duran and Jax listed at 30% chance they get traded. That feels about right. Between the pending sale and the Twins proximity to being competitive, I think they would need to be blown away by the package.

If they are sitting in this same position at this time next year, I would put the odds of both of them being moved considerably higher.

[Vanimal46]

Trading off the expiring contracts is easy. This decision(s) is why we pay Falvey the big bucks. 

[terrydactyls]

Ask for the moon and the stars.  The Twins should demand at least the equivelant of Walter Jenkins and Luke Keachel (and they could throw in Vasquez for a Single-A lottery ticket.  That would be a good starting position.

[bunsen82]

An organizations value is based on its assets.  If someone is buying the Twins they aren't buying them because we have Joe Ryan, Duran or Jax.  In reality those players will be gone in the near term whatever happens.  However each player has a value.  If the Twins can extract a premium value for 1, 2 or 3 players - then yes you could have a total reset and a massive increase in the prospect value of the organization.   

I thought the odds were low,  and I wouldn't say its a guarantee,  but I will tell you that the right ingredients are there for this to be a crazy deadline.  With Clase being put on the investigation list, it drastically tightens the Relief Pitcher market.  We hold the best 2 RP and the best SP available at the trade deadline.  1 of Jax or Duran being traded is probably 90% chance.  Both being traded is 50%.  As to Ryan it really comes down to how the org values him,  and how much other teams are willing to trade for him.  I think the Twins are willing to sell high on him.  The probability all 3 are traded is less than 25%, but I do see a scenario where all 3 are traded in the next 72 hours,  with the preference being  we do retain 1 of Duran or Jax.  However, If teams are willing to overpay and giving godfather deals for all 3, there is definitely a path where this team could look drastically different in the next few days.   

[nicksaviking]

49 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

ESPN trade rankings has both Duran and Jax listed at 30% chance they get traded. That feels about right. Between the pending sale and the Twins proximity to being competitive, I think they would need to be blown away by the package.

If they are sitting in this same position at this time next year, I would put the odds of both of them being moved considerably higher.

Or if no sale comes together this offseason or a new owner is just as spendthrift as the Pohlads, I could see a trade more likely this winter.

[bunsen82]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

Only possible if a team feels the need to add a reliever in order to make a run in the postseason. The Phillies seem most in need but Seattle, LAD, Milwaukee, and the Cubbies would all benefit from adding Jax or Duran. I would pay a high price for Jax/Duran if I were one of those teams. Healthy dominant relief pitchers with 2+ years of control are not common on the market. Negotiations will go to the wire. I'm not expecting major moves though.

With Dodgers seemingly down and out right now,  more teams may see a window this year that hasn't been as open as previous years.  

[Patzky]

14 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

An organizations value is based on its assets.  If someone is buying the Twins they aren't buying them because we have Joe Ryan, Duran or Jax.  In reality those players will be gone in the near term whatever happens.  However each player has a value.  If the Twins can extract a premium value for 1, 2 or 3 players - then yes you could have a total reset and a massive increase in the prospect value of the organization.   

I thought the odds were low,  and I wouldn't say its a guarantee,  but I will tell you that the right ingredients are there for this to be a crazy deadline.  With Clase being put on the investigation list, it drastically tightens the Relief Pitcher market.  We hold the best 2 RP and the best SP available at the trade deadline.  1 of Jax or Duran being traded is probably 90% chance.  Both being traded is 50%.  As to Ryan it really comes down to how the org values him,  and how much other teams are willing to trade for him.  I think the Twins are willing to sell high on him.  The probability all 3 are traded is less than 25%, but I do see a scenario where all 3 are traded in the next 72 hours,  with the preference being  we do retain 1 of Duran or Jax.  However, If teams are willing to overpay and giving godfather deals for all 3, there is definitely a path where this team could look drastically different in the next few days.   

I agree with your analysis. All three gone would remove us from serious contention this year and next. A package of three or four good prospects from a Castro Bader and Duran dump, we could overcome that next year. 

[Mike Sixel]

50 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

Ask for the moon and the stars.  The Twins should demand at least the equivelant of Walter Jenkins and Luke Keachel (and they could throw in Vasquez for a Single-A lottery ticket.  That would be a good starting position.

You think two top fifty prospects for one RP? Not happening.

Btw, Jenkins continues to drop down lists, while Teel is catching in the majors and hitting....

[The_No_Lifer]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

Only possible if a team feels the need to add a reliever in order to make a run in the postseason.

So pretty much every postseason team ever.

[bunsen82]

7 minutes ago, Patzky said:

I agree with your analysis. All three gone would remove us from serious contention this year and next. A package of three or four good prospects from a Castro Bader and Duran dump, we could overcome that next year. 

I like what you are saying, but if we get godfather deals,  we could either run with the prospects or trade for veterans.  Trading seems safer but we may be giving up on some upside.  There is a very real possibility we are stronger team next if we were to trade all 3.   A lot of things would have to come together but it is not at all out of the possibility they could reconfigure a very competitive team, with a loaded farm system.  

[The_No_Lifer]

With holding the two best relievers, I think it makes sense to only be willing to trade one of them: either is fine, but one of Jax/Duran needs to stay.  Drives up the price for the one that we maybe trade.

[bunsen82]

1 hour ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

ESPN trade rankings has both Duran and Jax listed at 30% chance they get traded. That feels about right. 

Those probabilities came out before the Clase news.  It has been reported the Twins want to trade at least 1.  

[tony&rodney]

1 minute ago, The_No_Lifer said:

So pretty much every postseason team ever.

No. There are teams that are either going to be in the playoffs or still have a real good shot at getting in that are not feeling that they need to go all in. Houston and Texas in the AL West are examples. There are other teams in a similar position. A team like Seattle or particularly Philadelphia may feel this is their year.

A combination of factors play into how a team approaches the deadline. Philly has some major players on expiring contracts. Each team has specific thoughts, for sure, but not every team feels the need to add a major player or three. Tampa Bay and Cleveland are examples of teams that are not going to be involved in major trades giving up their top prospects. The Twins were in a decent spot last season but didn't get involved. This was the correct move last year for them. They could have been more proactive last winter.

[Dman]

I still think Stewart is the one they trade and maybe Jax as well.  Stewart looked great last night.  He looked dominant, but he is our oldest arm and it is just hard to say how long he holds up.  He could be fine the next three years or might not be. I still think he could net a strong return probably not all that far off from Jax or Duran. I can't think of a time when the Twins have been positioned this well to demand more than they likely deserve in trade for his services.  I'd pull the trigger there with an overpay.

Jax is getting older too.  I really like the stuff and think with better sequencing, high, low, inside, outside he can be even better.  Still if they can get a large overpay I would do it.

I would hang onto Duran. He should be a top arm in any market.  I think they get about the same for him next year as this year.  He is young.  He puts on a good show when he comes in and he is just fun to watch.  I would hold off and see how things shake out after these trades and they can decide if they want to trade him next year or not.

I can't think of  package I would be willing to trade for Ryan.  It would need to be super star for super star.  Can't see it happening.

[LA Vikes Fan]

9 minutes ago, Dman said:

I still think Stewart is the one they trade and maybe Jax as well.  Stewart looked great last night.  He looked dominant, but he is our oldest arm and it is just hard to say how long he holds up.  He could be fine the next three years or might not be. I still think he could net a strong return probably not all that far off from Jax or Duran. I can't think of a time when the Twins have been positioned this well to demand more than they likely deserve in trade for his services.  I'd pull the trigger there with an overpay.

Jax is getting older too.  I really like the stuff and think with better sequencing, high, low, inside, outside he can be even better.  Still if they can get a large overpay I would do it.

I would hang onto Duran. He should be a top arm in any market.  I think they get about the same for him next year as this year.  He is young.  He puts on a good show when he comes in and he is just fun to watch.  I would hold off and see how things shake out after these trades and they can decide if they want to trade him next year or not.

I can't think of  package I would be willing to trade for Ryan.  It would need to be super star for super star.  Can't see it happening.

This is what I would do. Keep Duran and Ryan. Trade Jax assuming you can get a top 100 prospect plus a top 150, which is what the "experts" are projecting. Trade Stewart if you can get a solid return. I think we're close enough to contending in the next 2 years to keep Duran and Ryan, but if I'm wrong and we're a sub-.500 team at this time next season they can still be traded for essentially the same return they would get now assuming continued performance and no major injury.  If we trade Jax and Stewart, give Prielipp and Baker a shot not Tonkin or Erasmo Ramirez. This year is about finding out what we have for next year. 

[NYCTK]

1 hour ago, bunsen82 said:

1 of Jax or Duran being traded is probably 90% chance. 

I really think not selling one of them would be a huge failure. I just think the return is going to be too good to pass up. 

Both would risk cannibalizing your own market, but could see both move if things got out of control on the bidding. 

I'm excited! 

[bunsen82]

1 minute ago, NYCTK said:

I really think not selling one of them would be a huge failure. I just the return is going to be too good to pass up. 

Both would risk cannibalizing your own market, but could see both move if things got out of control on the bidding. 

I'm excited! 

Other Organizations have basically stated we are trading 1.  If we were to trade both,  it basically means there was an offer they couldn't refuse.  It is hard for me to quantify what is an overpay, on the sellers side we think everything is not enough,  for the buyers I am sure they think Falvey is crazy.   More and more I am almost hoping for a full tear down.  Higher draft pick next year and a ton of prospects to rebuild the team or to trade away.  Basically imagining a system that is deeper than what the Orioles had.   

[NYCTK]

14 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

if I'm wrong and we're a sub-.500 team at this time next season they can still be traded for essentially the same return they would get now

This is true, but also pushes back the next window. So the return would arguably the same, but a year later. Meaning that AA player you get in return will be able to help in 2028 instead of 2027. 

As much grief as I give this organization, the farm isn't terrible and if Buxton is sticking around and you want to build around him, I think targeting 2027 as the year of competition does make sense. Buxton at 33 and Correa at 32 is about the end of their expected usefulness. But the wave of top prospects at 22-24 meaning a few (or more!) will be able to step up. 

Next season is too much pressure on those prospects to contribute, and 2028 is risking both Buxton and Correa being too old to offer any value at all. Of course, we would hope the front office is able to augment the roster but I'm looking to 2027 as the year. 

Minnesota Twins, 2027 World Series Champions. 

[tony&rodney]

6 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

Basically imagining a system that is deeper than what the Orioles had.   

Remember the Orioles didn't balance their roster and are stuck in last place. We do not want to be the Orioles, although I get that their young players and one prospect are good.

[bunsen82]

Just now, tony&rodney said:

Remember the Orioles didn't balance their roster and are stuck in last place. We do not want to be the Orioles, although I get that their young players and one prospect are good.

The Orioles mismanaged their system.  The other is you do have to supplement with veterans and be willing to spend some money to retain your veterans.  There is a reason they had 6 picks in the first 70 picks.  They lost a lot of talent.  

[BH67]

Tariff levies. Twins personnel strategy. The Magic 8 Ball reliably predicts both.

[NYCTK]

6 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

Other Organizations have basically stated we are trading 1.  If we were to trade both,  it basically means there was an offer they couldn't refuse.  It is hard for me to quantify what is an overpay, on the sellers side we think everything is not enough,  for the buyers I am sure they think Falvey is crazy.   More and more I am almost hoping for a full tear down.  Higher draft pick next year and a ton of prospects to rebuild the team or to trade away.  Basically imagining a system that is deeper than what the Orioles had.   

Overpay is 2 top 100 prospects and 2 other bubbling under prospects/young players. That's more than Padres paid last year for Tanner Scott but not leaps and bounds more. 

I would frankly LOVE selling all of Duran, Jax, Stewart, Coulombe, and Topa for a large collection of prospects that turn the Twins 10th best prospect (CJ Culpepper) into their 18th best prospect.

But I am a big anti-bullpen investment guy on mediocre teams. A competent farm system should be turning out Varlands every year. 

[Sjoski]

48 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

I'm looking to 2027 as the year. 

Minnesota Twins, 2027 World Series Champions. 

But only if the Yankees miss the playoffs right? 

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, Sjoski said:

But only if the Yankees miss the playoffs right? 

And IF there is a season.

[NYCTK]

10 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

And IF there is a season.

True. Never underestimate the greed of a billionaire. 

[cmoss84]

Now is the time to trade both. And Buxton. And Correa. And Vazquez. 

Package Jax or Duran with CC and wipe that slate clean.

Keep Ryan and Ober.

[Major League Ready]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

You think two top fifty prospects for one RP? Not happening.

Btw, Jenkins continues to drop down lists, while Teel is catching in the majors and hitting....

I agree but some of these deadline deals surprise me.  The return for Tanner Scott last year was pretty shocking given he was a rental.  Two top 50s still seems highly unlikely but a top 50 and a top 100 plus another decent piece seems attainable given the market.  I am just guessing the potential of this particular deadline.  If the circumstances provide unique opportunity, I would not feel bad about cashing in Duran for a major haul.   We need to shake it up.

[Doctor Gast]

I like to remind everyone that we aren't rebuilding like MIA & CWS, So if Falvey is smart, the currency has to be promising MLB-ready impact players, not prospects. So if the team that can land E Quero or Teel from CWS, that is the team I'd be open to negotiating with. Even NYY :(