Buy, Sell, or Both? Twins' High-Wire Act at MLB Trade Deadline

[Alex Boxwell]

Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images

The trade deadline is approaching fast, and yet again, the Twins find themselves in a spot where they could rationalize being buyers or sellers. Breaking it down to the studs would be a huge mistake, with the current talent pool. With reinforcements coming off the injured list, there is a world wherein the Twins can have their cake and eat it, too.

Luke Keaschall is nearing a return and is a guy who can be a dynamic top-of-the-lineup bat. I love his offensive profile, his swing decisions are excellent, and he runs the bases like a madman. Having Byron Buxton in the leadoff spot, followed by a guy like Keaschall—who has begun to prove himself as a high OBP guy, a tough out, and can steal a lot of bases—could be a championship-caliber 1-2 punch. That lineup gets really deep if Carlos Correa or Royce Lewis put together consistently competitive at-bats.

Long-term, I see Keaschall as a corner outfielder. I was not overly impressed with his actions at second base, albeit in a very small sample. That makes one of the other corner outfielders very expendable. I doubt Keaschall is moved to a corner outfield spot in the near term, but if they enter “competitive rebuild” mode, I think Harrison Bader is the natural move, since he will become a free agent at season's end. 

The biggest elephant in the room is the back end of the bullpen. The Twins have two premium bullpen arms with team control. The move that checks the most boxes for me is trading Jhoan Duran. He has the best numbers, the team control, and a relatively clean injury history. With a guy who throws that hard, I worry about his longevity. I love Duran and he is so fun to watch, but if they actually could get the two Top 100 prospects that they are asking for, I think it would be wise to pull the trigger. (To be fair, it never was clarified whether Jeff Passan meant two top-100 prospects for just one of Duran and Griffin Jax, or two for the pair of them, or one for each in separate deals. But anyway.)

If Duran is moved, Griffin Jax should be kept. However, one of the realities of modern baseball is that quality relief arms are not hard to come by. I highly doubt the Twins get their asking price for Jax, because his numbers aren’t there this year. Yes, the peripherals are elite, but at the end of the day, how long can you be “unlucky”? Teams will want a shutdown arm if they’re parting with top talent, so I have a hard time seeing that materializing.

One unfortunate reality we may have to come to terms with, as fans, is that we may have seen Joe Ryan’s last start in Minnesota. It is well known they do not sell low, but what about selling high? With his extremely high level of performance and club control, even if he pitches this well next year, it is highly likely Ryan will never have more trade value than he does right now. My stance on starting pitching is a hair different. Finding quality starting pitching is extremely expensive and much harder to come by. If the Twins think they can compete for a World Series while Ryan is controllable, it will feel very silly to have moved him.

The Twins are stuck between a rock and a hard place. I’ve lamented the lack of commitment to rebuilds in the past, but I truly think this roster is talented and that calculated moves can be made to give this team a sniff at making a run at a Wild Card spot. With Pablo Lopez, Bailey Ober, and Keaschall coming, that is a deadline splash and a half. Pair that with Carlos Correa and Royce Lewis starting to look like themselves, and all of a sudden, the Twins have a quality playoff rotation and a well-balanced lineup that should make some noise.

Normally, I hate when teams play the deadline with a “one foot in, one foot out” mentality, but this team is in a unique spot where it makes some sense to strategically reload with the possibility to still compete this year. It’s a talented roster, but the Twins would be foolish not to try and strategically move assets. It looks like the writing is on the wall and some version of a selloff is coming, but that doesn't mean the season should be forfeit from here.

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[arby58]

I've been of the opinion the Twins were not a bad team, but recent events are starting to change my impression. They had a chance to get back to .500 at the All Star break against a sub-.500 Pirates team and couldn't do so. They then lost three straight series coming out of the break, two of them against bad teams - and they weren't even competitive in the series deciding games against both the Rockies and the Nats, the latter of which was at home.

The team continues to find novel ways to lose games - their best starting pitcher gets rocked against the Nats, their vaunted bullpen blows ninth inning leads, they score a total of 6 runs in 3 games against the Nats - who rank 29th of 30 in MLB team ERA.

I'm starting to come around to the perspective that more than just a 'competitive rebuild' is necessary.

 

[DJL44]

Sell at the deadline, buy in the offseason.

[dxpavelka]

Much easier to make and stand by and believe a statement like "one of the realities of modern baseball is that quality relief arms are not hard to come by"  when you already have said arms.  The more of those guys we move the more of those guys we will be searching for by the start of the 2026 season.  And the more likely that whatever we find will be accompanied by major question marks.  This will most likely lead to a rocky start to the season, leaving us in a very similar position as the current one a year hence.

[jmlease1]

I've been outspoken around here that I would consider selling Joe Ryan to be franchise malpractice. I maintain that view: even with a great offer, it'll still won't be enough to replace a frontline, deserving all-star starter any time soon...if at all.

But I do think the team should be looking to move guys like Bader & Castro, even if the returns aren't jaw-dropping. Bader will be in line for a multi-year deal int he offseason the way he's played for us and shouldn't really be int he twins near future plans. Castro is a valuable and fun player, but he's getting too expensive for the role, might be aging out of being an effective infielder, and his value at the deadline might be as high as it'll ever get.

I would strongly consider moving either Duran or Jax (whichever would bring the most) but wouldn't back off what I consider a fair return just to move them. Their value would still be high in the off-season. I would look at the market on Brock Stewart or Coulombe if there's any real value to be had there, because I think the Twins know how to build a bullpen and considering how volatile relievers can be...that's not where you generally want to be paying out significant cash. It's the best spot to flip guys, and I'd be happy if the Twins made someone pay through the nose for one of their better relievers.

I'd entertain offers on Larnach, who would be a useful LF platoon bat to a contender. Or Clemens, who put a jolt in the Twins at a good time, but is unlikely to be a core piece.

By fumbling out of the all-star break against Colorado & Washington (two very beatable teams) the Twins haven't done enough to be buyers, since we know ownership isn't going to add significant salary to bring in the kind of difference-making bat they need right now.

Move the pending free agents (including France), take serious offers on the relievers, promote some guys from AAA and use the rest of the season to get guys healthy and evaluate what you have in players like Lewis, Lee, Julien, Keaschall, Wallner, Sabato, Martin, Matthews, Festa, SWR, Raya, etc

[farmerguychris]

33 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Sell at the deadline, buy in the offseason.

Except I think we both know that under this current ownership - there will certainly be no significant 'buying' in the off season.  I expect any salaries saved will simply go into their pockets and be happy to pay minor league guys for the rest of this year as we trade away our pending FA guys.  

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

30 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

I've been outspoken around here that I would consider selling Joe Ryan to be franchise malpractice. I maintain that view: even with a great offer, it'll still won't be enough to replace a frontline, deserving all-star starter any time soon...if at all.

I would strongly consider moving either Duran or Jax (whichever would bring the most) but wouldn't back off what I consider a fair return just to move them. Their value would still be high in the off-season. 

 

I am on the record it is difficult trading for prospects and then either putting them into roles and having them succeed or trying to trade in the offseason for equivalent talent.  We did get Sonny Gray for 2 years for 18 year old prospect so its not unheard of.  In either case it has to be a significant overpay.   We have 2+ years of control for all 3.   Currently I think Ryan is at the highest value of his career,  Duran is pretty close to his highest level,  and Jax is slightly off the highest value.   I think the goal would be to trade just one of Duran or Jax.   If they trade both, its because the market forced other teams to drastically overpay.  In regards to Ryan,  I think he is basically untouchable,  meaning the return is so high that there is very little chance someone is willing to pay.   However,  if someone is desperate enough the Twins will entertain it.  If they are asking for 2 top 100 prospects for Duran or Jax I can only imagine what the ask for Ryan is.  I think in all 3 cases you have a better chance of an overpay now (especially with 3 postseason possibilities) than in the offseason.  Plus I am not sure Ryan can be valued any higher than he is right now.  

It was just earlier this season when someone argued with me that Ryan could be considered an ace.  Right now he is the #12 SP based on stats.   Even still we all know what generally comes in the second half for Ryan and we got a taste of it in his last start.  

[thelanges5]

Team is 74-88 in their last 162. Time to shake up the offense for sure. Same results with 2 different hitting coaches. Look at the Blue Jays who hired Popkins, they have the best record in MLB. 

[In My La Z boy]

13 minutes ago, thelanges5 said:

Team is 74-88 in their last 162. Time to shake up the offense for sure. Same results with 2 different hitting coaches. Look at the Blue Jays who hired Popkins, they have the best record in MLB. 

We have a Rocco problem, not a hitting coach problem.

[LastOnePicked]

It would have been nice to be able to compare Rocco's 2024 season to a new manager's 2025 season. Then we would have been able to isolate a variable, since much of the roster remains the same. I will never understand keeping Rocco after last year.

But I don't have any hope for 2026. I'm still not sure this team will get a new owner, and even if they do, I can't imagine they'll be big spenders in the offseason. There's just not enough here to build around. Joe Ryan is fairly good. Pablo Lopez is fairly good. All the other starters are major question marks. There is no shutdown ace. There's no rock-solid slugger. I love to see Buxton's resurgence, but it can't be relied upon. And I'm nearly certain at this point that Correa is cooked, both in the field and at the plate.

The Twins have a few pieces that could help them build for 2028 and beyond. That's the route they should take.

[jkcarew]

Solution… climb down off the high wire, and SELL, SELL, SELL.

There’s a simple and accurate phrase for making small sells and small acquisitions…or balancing on the high wire…or straddling the fence.

It’s called…”doing nothing”.

Again.

[Nshore]

I know this is a little off the subject, but they wouldn't have to buy or sell if they could get more out of their current hitters.  Their hitters seem unbelievably passive.  They must lead the league in taking strike one down the middle.  In the Bomba years, they were much more aggressive early in the count.  I don't know if the current approach is by incompetent design, or just lack of talent.  That's my rant for the day.

[Bodie]

On 7/28/2025 at 1:05 PM, dxpavelka said:

Much easier to make and stand by and believe a statement like "one of the realities of modern baseball is that quality relief arms are not hard to come by"  when you already have said arms.  The more of those guys we move the more of those guys we will be searching for by the start of the 2026 season.  And the more likely that whatever we find will be accompanied by major question marks.  This will most likely lead to a rocky start to the season, leaving us in a very similar position as the current one a year hence.

Yeah!!!

Give me another season start like Jax had (is having)!!!

[Bodie]

On 7/28/2025 at 2:03 PM, In My La Z boy said:

We have a Rocco problem, not a hitting coach problem.

Doesn't have to "or", it can be "problems" plural...

Sub .500 teams seldom have "a problem", they have problems.   The Yankees have a problem in that their CF is a LF.

The Twins have problems, plural!  A problem can be solved, often in multiple ways.  Interwoven problems directly relating to player types/skill sets and roster construction are much harder than covering for a butcher in the field. 

[In My La Z boy]

7 minutes ago, Bodie said:

Doesn't have to "or", it can be "problems" plural...

Sub .500 teams seldom have "a problem", they have problems.   The Yankees have a problem in that their CF is a LF.

The Twins have problems, plural!  A problem can be solved, often in multiple ways.  Interwoven problems directly relating to player types/skill sets and roster construction are much harder than covering for a butcher in the field. 

Yes. And how might one solve multiple problems with one decision? Leadership is always the issue. With proper leadership we'd better understand our real underlying problems. Right now, we aren't getting the most & best out of what we have. We uncover no hidden gems, we find no extra gears, we unlock no ones potential. Falvey hired a follower not a leader. Leaders have real time intuition and push the right buttons with players & in game circumstances. Leaders can just feel it and react. Teams like Milwaukee are a great example of getting the most & best out of their squad. We have more paper talent than Milwaukee.