Analyzing Second Half Strength of Schedule and Playoff Chances for the Minnesota Twins

[Eric Blonigen]

Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-Imagn Images

The first “half” of the 2025 Twins season was an emotional rollercoaster ride for fans. There have been some high highs (the second-longest winning streak in Twins history, the longest scoreless inning streak in team history, and Byron Buxton’s first half); and some low lows (the tough start, the month of June, and injuries to Pablo López, Bailey Ober, and Zebby Matthews).

Throughout it all, the Twins enter play on Friday roughly .500, and with reinforcements on the way. While they won’t win the Central division due to the Detroit Tigers being one of the best teams in baseball, they have a real chance of a Wild Card berth based on strength of schedule and the middling nature of the majority of the American League. Let’s take a look.

Current Records

If the season ended today, the three Wild Card spots would go to the Yankees (53-43), Red Sox (53-45), and Mariners (51-45). The Twins sit four games back of Seattle at 47-49, certainly within striking distance of that final spot. The Rangers and Rays are ahead of the Twins in the standings, and the Angels have the same 47-49 record. The Royals and Guardians sit just a half-game back of the Twins, and the Orioles, Athletics, and White Sox are all but out of the equation. Basically, there are four very good teams in the league, but the last couple wild-card spots are truly that, by record at least, with fully nine teams clamoring for three spots.

Playoff Chances
There are three primary sites that give playoff odds: FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, and Baseball Prospectus. What do their projections say?

Team	Baseball Prospectus	Fangraphs	Baseball Reference	Average
Yankees	88.3%	88.9%	90.8%	89.3%
Mariners	83.2%	72.2%	65.8%	73.7%
Red Sox	33.9%	55.1%	67.0%	52.0%
Rays	42.9%	37.6%	56.2%	45.6%
Rangers	20.7%	17.8%	32.6%	23.7%
Twins	28.3%	23.0%	8.8%	20.0%
Royals	8.4%	11.8%	5.0%	8.4%
Guardians	7.7%	10.1%	4.6%	7.5%
Angels	1.7%	3.9%	2.0%	2.5%

As you can see, every projection system basically eliminates the Angels from contention. Sorry yet again, Mike Trout. The Guardians and Royals each have less than half the chances of the Twins as well. The Rangers are just ahead of the Twins, and both the Rays and Red Sox have roughly twice the odds of the Twins.

You may be wondering why there is so much variation between the different sites. Here are a few things to know.

Baseball Reference looks at teams’ current rosters and how each player has performed over the past 100 games, even if those 100 games span multiple seasons. Seasons are then simulated 1000 times to generate average odds. For a team like the Twins, this hurts them due to a handful of their past-100 occurring during last season’s nightmare swoon in September. Their projection systems likes the current Red Sox and Rays rosters, and they receive a playoff boost as a result.

Baseball Prospectus uses their PECOTA system to look at teams’ current rosters, evaluates the range of outcomes for each player based on historical comps, and then looks at things like expected playing time shares for each player on the roster to calculate expected OPS and translate that into runs and wins. They factor in expected numbers and regress forward-looking projections accordingly. They run their simulations one million times for a nice big sample. Based on expected numbers, the Rangers should have more wins banked than they do, so their odds are higher. Same with the Rays. The Royals and Guardians on the other hand should have fewer in their win column due to outperforming their Pythag record.

FanGraphs does this same work, but also factors in strength of schedule. That’s important, because a team facing, say, the Rockies six more times should have a better chance of picking up excess wins compared to a team that won’t face the Rockies at all. Conversely, a team with a bunch of games remaining against the Tigers will probably win fewer games than their talent level would predict. FanGraphs also simulates each season 10,000 times, so their sample is larger (and theoretically more accurate, as a result) when compared to Baseball-Reference.

So, we know the Twins will realistically have to pass the Red Sox, Rays, and Rangers while fending off the Royals and Guardians. That could be a tall order. Before you get disappointed though, let’s circle back to that key factor: strength of schedule remaining.

Strength of Schedule Remaining
So, knowing that strength of schedule matters, and will almost certainly play a large role in dictating which bubble teams can claw their way into the last wild card spot, how does this look for the Twins?

Nice. Based on FanGraphs data, the Twins have the third-easiest schedule remaining, and second-easiest in the American League. In July, they face the hapless Rockies, as well as the Nationals. There are also a number of other series remaining against sub-.500 teams. Among the group of contending teams, just the Royals will have it easier. Looking at the three teams the Twins will need to pass, there’s some great news ahead.

The Red Sox have the hardest schedule in baseball, in large part due to playing in the AL East. They also have a ton of games remaining against challenging NL opponents like the Cubs, Dodgers, Phillies, and Padres, all of whom are well over .500. The Rangers also have a tough slog ahead of them, with the sixth-most-challenging schedule. They face the gauntlet that is the AL East, and will also have a couple tough NL series. The Rays, while in the middle of the pack, will still have a tougher go of things than the Twins, and they too play in the AL East. That’s about the best-case scenario for the Twins as they hope to build off of a strong start to the month.

While it’s fair to not be excited about a team below .500 heading out of the break, it’s also important to acknowledge that the Twins are very much still in this thing. There’s a lot of baseball still to play, and the Twins actual playoff chances are better than their record indicates. Now, fans just need to hope for a little luck, some health, and for the Twins to pick up where they left off before the break. Starting with a series against the Rockies can only help. Realistically, though, a lot will come down to a crucial six-game road series in late September against the Rangers and the Phillies.

With all this information in mind, how confident are you about the Twins' outlook for the second half, which gets underway tonight at Coors Field?

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[DocBauer]

The good news is SWR and Festa are doing a solid/decent job of developing and keeping the Twins around the .500 mark. Matthews is back probably within a week to take over the 5th spot. Ober and Lopez should be back some time in August, possibly late July for Ober.

Lewis, Correa, and Wallner are all healthy. (Reportedly). All are performing FAR LOWER than talent, previous production, and expected production.

And the Twins have an easier 2nd half schedule than they had the  1st half.

The bad news is you STILL need to win games. EVERYONE has "easy" and "hard" stretches of games. And most teams have at least some 1st and 2nd half flux in regard to schedule difficulty. By again, you still have to WIN. CAN the pitching hold up? CAN the disappointing bats wake up?

It's not just the Twins record. They are also chasing the teams above them, and overcoming them to earn a spot. They have a little over 2 weeks to go on a run, win some ga.es, get above .500, and LOOK like a team that can continue to win.

IF they can do that, they stand pat, or maybe do a small buy, or a small biy and sell to add. But if they DON'T show something positive over the next 2 weeks, they need to look to sell impending FA for the best return possible and promote a couple young players, get Keaschall back, and start to prepare for 2026 while still trying to win games and create as good of a "good feel" as they can to finish the year.

Who knows? The Tigers sold of players at the deadline and then played good enough ball to still make the playoffs last year.

 

[Doctor Gast]

IMO, we have a very good chance to have a very good 2nd half, My main concern is some players running out of gas. IMO, rotation & catching need to be shored up.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Beating the Rockies in July counts the same as beating the Phillies in September. The most important game of the year is the one being played.

[Twodogs]

Just have to play the games.  

[USAFChief]

Strength of schedule in baseball is next to meaningless.

Strength of your own team is orders of magnitude more important. 

This Twins team isn't making the postseason. 

[thelanges5]

PECOTA makes their chances look better but these guys haven’t been performing at their “expected” levels for almost a year now.
They are 47-53 in their last 100 games which only includes the last three from 2024. The 8% chance on Baseball Reference seems more accurate. 

Not a good start with a dud in Colorado tonight. 

[DJL44]

6 hours ago, thelanges5 said:

They are 47-53 in their last 100 games which only includes the last three from 2024. The 8% chance on Baseball Reference seems more accurate. 

Not a good start with a dud in Colorado tonight. 

Down to 5.6% after the loss to the Rockies

[Vanimal46]

8 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Strength of schedule in baseball is next to meaningless.

Strength of your own team is orders of magnitude more important. 

This Twins team isn't making the postseason. 

Last year the Twins had one of the “easiest” strength of schedules left in the 2nd half too. Didn’t stop us from making an epic collapse in September. 

[Whitey333]

The Twins MAY make the.playoffs but they sure aren't a playoff caliber.team.  oh and by the way the Twins came out flat and lost to those "hapless" Rockies Friday night.

[Sjoski]

 

It border line delusional to think the Twins make the playoffs.

If the bats come alive, another starting pitcher will go down.  If the starters hold up, the bullpen will implode.  If the pen holds up, the bats will go cold.

[tony&rodney]

Anything can happen. We watch the Twins and see a slow, defensively challenged team that can't hit and hope the pitching staff throws shutouts every game. Any time an opposing player pitches or an opponent puts the ball in play, the odds are unkind to our current roster. I hope they beat the odds.

[silverslugger]

11 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Strength of schedule in baseball is next to meaningless.

Strength of your own team is orders of magnitude more important. 

This Twins team isn't making the postseason. 

Certainly not the way they've played the first 90-some games. They key to the second half is having players return to health and performing and players return from slumps and performing.  I'm with you though, they've got to prove it to me.

[silverslugger]

2 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

Last year the Twins had one of the “easiest” strength of schedules left in the 2nd half too. Didn’t stop us from making an epic collapse in September. 

Was that partially because they played a lot of baseball against Detroit which was seen as an "easy" team to play at the mid-point last year and ended up being the best team in baseball during the 2nd half?

[AKTwinsFan]

It couldn't have got off to a worse start. The Rockies are playing to hopefully be traded and also playing for their lives. We just look like we're toast already. 

[D.C Twins]

Playoff chances...

[Riverbrian]

13 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Strength of schedule in baseball is next to meaningless.

Strength of your own team is orders of magnitude more important. 

This Twins team isn't making the postseason. 

The second sentence says it.

Third sentence... I'm not ready to throw in that towel... but I'm doing arm exercises just in case I have to give it a chuck. 

These strength of schedule attempts at analysis are fun and even interesting... but like your 2nd sentence accurately states. 

If your team is playing well... it isn't going to matter much who they play. If your team isn't playing well... it isn't going to matter much who they play. That goes for all 29 teams. If you catch the Rockies when they are playing well. If you catch the Dodgers when they are not. 

One game at a time... put your cleats on. Worry about your own business. 

[USAFChief]

3 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

The second sentence says it.

Third sentence... I'm not ready to throw in that towel... but I'm doing arm exercises just in case I have to give it a chuck. 

These strength of schedule attempts at analysis are fun and even interesting... but like your 2nd sentence accurately states. 

If your team is playing well... it isn't going to matter much who they play. If your team isn't playing well... it isn't going to matter much who they play. That goes for all 29 teams. If you catch the Rockies when they are playing well. If you catch the Dodgers when they are not. 

 

One game at a time... put your cleats on. Worry about your own business. 

The thing is,  baseball seasons are long. Post AS break "halves" are long.

You're going to run into teams playing well, and teams playing bad. Good teams, mediocre teams, poor teams.

The constant is how good YOU are.

[DJL44]

Down to 3.8% after the second loss to Colorado. 8th in the wild card standings.

[DJL44]

Odds only up to 4.1%. They won but didn’t gain any ground on teams ahead of them in the standings.