Louis Varland is Giving Minnesota Twins All Kinds of Options

[Cody Pirkl]

There was always hope that Louie Varland could be a valuable reliever, whenever the Twins officially transitioned him to the bullpen. So far, he’s exceeded all expectations, giving the Twins all kinds of options.

Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson-Imagn Images

Louis Varland might currently be second on the Twins' bullpen hierarchy, due in equal measure to Griffin Jax’s struggles and his own performance. Varland looks like the fire-breathing relief ace we all hoped for so far, and it’s opened a whole new world of possibilities for the Twins.

On Tuesday night, we saw the next step in Varland’s ascent. The maligned Jax pitched the 7th inning, with Varland left to bridge the 8th to Jhoan Duran, facing the heart of the opposing lineup. With a 1-2-3 inning, Varland continued with what had already been an impressive start to the season. He should now be considered one of their top relief arms. He may factor into that conversation for years to come.

Varland has struck out nearly one-third of opposing hitters so far this season. While his struggles with allowing hard contact haven’t completely vanished, he’s posted career bests in many metrics, like expected batting average and slugging percentage. His knuckle-curve has become a legitimate weapon, allowing just one hit so far and drawing a near 50% whiff rate as his second-most used offering. His fastball is averaging 98.1 mph and has been nearly unhittable.

Varland’s emergence gives the Twins a wealth of options at the back end of games. If Brock Stewart and Jax return to form (as already seems to be happening), they have four legitimate options to turn to in high-leverage situations. While both continue to get their footing to begin the season, one could argue that Varland has emerged as the second option in the bullpen, below only Duran. The Twins may currently be struggling to keep their heads above water, but if they have a season-saving comeback in them, the back end of this bullpen is likely to play a huge part.

Varland’s emergence affects more than just the effectiveness of the Twins' bullpen in 2025. There’s no sugarcoating how much damage the Twins have done to their playoff odds to begin the season. If their poor play continues, they’re sure to find themselves fielding more and more calls from opposing teams on back-end relievers. Varland rising through the ranks gives them more ability to entertain such calls.

This front office doesn’t believe in paying bullpen arms, and the team’s payroll and ownership are uncertain situations for the medium-term future. Continued struggles may create the perfect storm to part with at least one high-leverage reliever. Varland, being the youngest member of this group, is the most cost-controlled. The Twins may find themselves more comfortable parting with a more expensive relief arm, knowing that Varland is effective and under team control for years to come.

While it may be a disappointing season so far, 2025 hasn’t been without its bright spots. Varland is becoming the reliever we thought he could be, which is beneficial for the Twins, whether they fight back into contention or continue to flounder. He can be a valuable piece of a competitive Twins bullpen down the stretch, or allow the team to shop older relievers with their sights set on reinforcing the 2026 roster. While one reality is much more desirable than the other, it’s worth recognizing the doors Varland’s performance so far has opened.

Time will tell how, exactly, this development benefits the Twins, but it’s been one of the bright spots of a disappointing start to 2025.

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[LambchoP]

I'm guessing Duran will be the reliever most likely to be traded since he's making the most money. Jax wouldn't surprise me either. We're bound to have a major sell of by the trade deadline. This team needs young players who can hit. They need catchers probably more than anything.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Whoa there cowboy... let's not put the cart before the horse. Varland is off to a good start, but he has a long way to go before anyone can consider him truly reliable. The phrase should be "cautiously optimistic". Let's revisit this in July.

 

[Linus]

I’m happy for Varland. He’s got a good chance to be a big leaguer for a while. 

[Karbo]

Too bad he can't hit. LOL

[bean5302]

Varland has been far more effective than I expected, but it is a small sample size as is the nature of relief pitching. The exit velocity remains way too high, and Louis' weakness has always been lots of loud contact, but so far, it hasn't hurt him. It won't be long now, though. A 17% barrel rate in MLB is astronomical.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

2 hours ago, LambchoP said:

I'm guessing Duran will be the reliever most likely to be traded since he's making the most money. Jax wouldn't surprise me either. We're bound to have a major sell of by the trade deadline. This team needs young players who can hit. They need catchers probably more than anything.

I have long thought that Duran would be a great trade candidate. For all the noise around his speed, he brings a lot of Eddie Guardado to the closer role. Lots of tightrope walking, little dominance.

The hope is that Varland can continue to be successful. The trade opportunities that would arise out of that happening could help this team immensely.

[Doctor Gast]

Social media had Varland cooked. Just goes to prove that you have to take what you hear on social media with a grain of salt. I never had any doubt that Varland could be a high-leverage RP. BP seems volatile yet I think Varland is dependable.

[mikelink45]

All RP analysis is based on SSS but that is to be expected when they only go one inning at a time.  The best BP in the league predictions have crashed and we need any live arm that can be consistent.  I would have kept Blewett over Alcala for example, the revolving door will continue to spin.  

[MMMordabito]

155 IP @ 4.88 FIP

12 IP @ 2.60 FIP

Let's trade the other guys.

[Danchat]

I figured he'd continue to improve if they kept giving him chances. There may still be some more bumps in the road for him, but I think Varland will be a quality reliever for the next couple seasons. So far, another successful transition from starter to reliever.

[chpettit19]

Like everything to this point of the season, way too small of a sample size to make any declarations. As @bean5302 points out, Louis continues to give up a lot of hard contact. That's a dangerous game to play. His profile is actually pretty similar to a guy named Pagan from 2022. Throws hard. Strikes a lot of people out. Gets people to chase at a really nice clip. Gets swings and misses. But when they hit it, they hit it. 

Louis is giving up harder contact than Pagan did that year. Nearly twice the barrel rate. A higher hard-hit%. And getting fewer swing and misses. But it's a small sample size. He's always given up hard contact so it's a concern and what we should be keeping our eyes on. I don't know where he goes from here, and he's gotten good results to this point of the season. But declaring Louis some locked-in, back-end bullpen piece at this point feels premature to me. There are some red flags still.

[LA Vikes Fan]

I agree. I think Varland is a better version of Emilio Pagan. Pagan is still pitching and has been fairly effective as a setup, 7th or occasionally 8th inning guy, Generally good but a few complete blow up outings every year. He was totally miscast for the Twins as a closer.  Same for Varland. I think he can be an effective but not elite 7th inning guy who can pitch some 8th innings, but can't close. Brock Stewart lite with 50 innings in his arm every year instead of 30. Hey, nothing wrong with that. 

[bean5302]

10 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Like everything to this point of the season, way too small of a sample size to make any declarations. As @bean5302 points out, Louis continues to give up a lot of hard contact. That's a dangerous game to play. His profile is actually pretty similar to a guy named Pagan from 2022. Throws hard. Strikes a lot of people out. Gets people to chase at a really nice clip. Gets swings and misses. But when they hit it, they hit it. 

Louis is giving up harder contact than Pagan did that year. Nearly twice the barrel rate. A higher hard-hit%. And getting fewer swing and misses. But it's a small sample size. He's always given up hard contact so it's a concern and what we should be keeping our eyes on. I don't know where he goes from here, and he's gotten good results to this point of the season. But declaring Louis some locked-in, back-end bullpen piece at this point feels premature to me. There are some red flags still.

I wish it was just a single pitch like his really poorly graded changeup causing the EV issue. Unfortunately, pretty much all of Varland's pitches have a lot of very loud contact associated with them. The changeup is special though. It's truly boom or bust this year at least. Either guys really miss or the absolutely annihilate it.

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I wish it was just a single pitch like his really poorly graded changeup causing the EV issue. Unfortunately, pretty much all of Varland's pitches have a lot of very loud contact associated with them. The changeup is special though. It's truly boom or bust this year at least. Either guys really miss or the absolutely annihilate it.

His changeup heat map is pretty fascinating. A lot of red down, out of the zone and then a nice red dot right in the middle of the zone. 100-120 exit velos aren't surprising on changeups middle-middle. That's always been his problem. Too many pitches left middle-middle that get absolutely destroyed. 

Slider has a lot of red right down the middle of the plate this year, too. Not surprising at all to see the numbers against those 2 pitches be really high (slugging at or over 1.000 for both). I think he has good enough stuff to be an effective reliever if he can just keep it out of the middle of the plate more frequently.

[bean5302]

2 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I agree. I think Varland is a better version of Emilio Pagan. Pagan is still pitching and has been fairly effective as a setup, 7th or occasionally 8th inning guy, Generally good but a few complete blow up outings every year. He was totally miscast for the Twins as a closer.  Same for Varland. I think he can be an effective but not elite 7th inning guy who can pitch some 8th innings, but can't close. Brock Stewart lite with 50 innings in his arm every year instead of 30. Hey, nothing wrong with that. 

@chpettit19 said Varland's EV's, barrel and hard hit rates are worse than Pagan, not better.

I'm not sure what Louis Varland will wind up turning into, but I'd bet more on the solid middle reliever area. In that 3.50-4.00 ERA/FIP/xFIP territory. Varland's pitches just do not move well. The velo helps him with batter swing timing, but if the batter times it up well, that ball is in the seats because it's going to be right where the hitter expects it to go.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

You know your a Twins fan when “giving the team ‘options’” means “options to make the team worse”

[Mrs. Baseball]

7 hours ago, Linus said:

I’m happy for Varland. He’s got a good chance to be a big leaguer for a while. 

I am as well. Glad Louie decided to accept the role. You can make a lot of dough out of the pen young man.

[FargoFanMan]

13 hours ago, Linus said:

I’m happy for Varland. He’s got a good chance to be a big leaguer for a while. 

He’s settling in and he seems like he’ll be a bulldog out there!

[FargoFanMan]

10 hours ago, bean5302 said:

I wish it was just a single pitch like his really poorly graded changeup causing the EV issue. Unfortunately, pretty much all of Varland's pitches have a lot of very loud contact associated with them. The changeup is special though. It's truly boom or bust this year at least. Either guys really miss or the absolutely annihilate it.

Which should get better. If he can be a straight fastball/ changeup guy he can dominate. He needs to ditch the cutter unless he can locate it better. He’s improving though and that bodes well!

[FargoFanMan]

11 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Social media had Varland cooked. Just goes to prove that you have to take what you hear on social media with a grain of salt. I never had any doubt that Varland could be a high-leverage RP. BP seems volatile yet I think Varland is dependable.

He’s settling in and like Jax once he can settle in it’s easier to toy with different pitches than being a starter. If he can develop a change or splitter. He could absolutely dominate!

[bean5302]

10 hours ago, FargoFanMan said:

Which should get better. If he can be a straight fastball/ changeup guy he can dominate. He needs to ditch the cutter unless he can locate it better. He’s improving though and that bodes well!

 

10 hours ago, FargoFanMan said:

He’s settling in and like Jax once he can settle in it’s easier to toy with different pitches than being a starter. If he can develop a change or splitter. He could absolutely dominate!

Could Varland improve his pitches? Possibly. It's awfully hard to improve stuff as every single pitcher in MLB is trying to do it, but very few are successful. Can he dominate with pitches which don't move? No way. His changeup grades very poorly. By Stuff+ ratings, it's not even MLB worthy at a score of 76 so far this year (35 grade on 20-80 scale). Varland might improve results by dropping his weaker pitches, but his good pitches might not play as well without the repertoire. Varland does not have even one "plus" pitch right now. He's getting good results (better than he will get long term), but I see no reason to conclude he can't stick in MLB as a solid reliever for a long time. He's just not going to be closing out games or setting up a closer.





Is Jax a reasonable comparison? Absolutely not. Jax's slider was as good as anything Varland has out of the 'pen right now, even when Jax was a starter. Jax now has a group of pitches which are near "plus" rating as he's made major adjustments to his game. It's important to note Jax is currently throwing 5mph faster than he was as a starter as well. Louis picked up 2mph.

[JD-TWINS]

On 4/25/2025 at 9:38 AM, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Whoa there cowboy... let's not put the cart before the horse. Varland is off to a good start, but he has a long way to go before anyone can consider him truly reliable. The phrase should be "cautiously optimistic". Let's revisit this in July.

 

Enter Friday night’s performance ……. got away with 1st pitch HR……didn’t look sharp. Got warmed through the inning & he seems to have good stuff 85-90% of his pitches. He does have a propensity to get hurt despite on a few of those mistakes - at a higher rate than most guys.

Optimism - sure thing! Is he polished and ready to assume some major responsibility, haven’t seen that yet - just talent & competitiveness. On a good path in the PEN.

[FargoFanMan]

5 hours ago, bean5302 said:

 

Could Varland improve his pitches? Possibly. It's awfully hard to improve stuff as every single pitcher in MLB is trying to do it, but very few are successful. Can he dominate with pitches which don't move? No way. His changeup grades very poorly. By Stuff+ ratings, it's not even MLB worthy at a score of 76 so far this year (35 grade on 20-80 scale). Varland might improve results by dropping his weaker pitches, but his good pitches might not play as well without the repertoire. Varland does not have even one "plus" pitch right now. He's getting good results (better than he will get long term), but I see no reason to conclude he can't stick in MLB as a solid reliever for a long time. He's just not going to be closing out games or setting up a closer.





Is Jax a reasonable comparison? Absolutely not. Jax's slider was as good as anything Varland has out of the 'pen right now, even when Jax was a starter. Jax now has a group of pitches which are near "plus" rating as he's made major adjustments to his game. It's important to note Jax is currently throwing 5mph faster than he was as a starter as well. Louis picked up 2mph.

You may be right but it’s not true that guys can’t improve pitches. Also, he’s literally a month into being a big league reliever. The stats only show what he’s done and how those pitches rank. Jax improved. No question. Simply by improving his sweeper and his command of it and then bringing back the changeup. Remember when Joe Ryan was a strictly fastball guy with middling secondary stuff? He improved his sweeper and added a split-change. He improved his split-change more since then. Varland can easily improve by simply dropping what doesn’t work and improving what does.