The Math is a Problem

[Linus]

The Twins are currently 7-15. No reason to panic as there is a bunch of the season to go.   However the math is not looking good. With 140 games to go the Twins will have to go 74-66 the rest of the way just to get to .500. Let’s say it takes 87 wins to make the playoffs. The Twins will have to go 77-63 the rest of the way to get there.  Is that impossible?  Nope. Is it likely?  Nope, not unless they pull off a white hot streak where they win 10 in a row or something similar. Currently their offense is so frequently bad that winning streaks are not likely despite good starting pitching.  And that would also assume they start winning right now with no more extended losing streaks. 
Hence the old adage: you can’t win a pennant in April but you can lose one. 

[knothole61]

Linus, I dig what you are saying, and I admit that 10 in a row seems far-fetched--but that 8 year-old boy inside of me who refuses to go away thinks that maybe we can win five of the next six and fly into Cleveland with a bit of an edge.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

20 hours ago, knothole61 said:

Linus, I dig what you are saying, and I admit that 10 in a row seems far-fetched--but that 8 year-old boy inside of me who refuses to go away thinks that maybe we can win five of the next six and fly into Cleveland with a bit of an edge.

We all cling to ‘91… but there’s a reason it’s the only example cited in any team’s slow start.

[Vanimal46]

16 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

We all cling to ‘91… but there’s a reason it’s the only example cited in any team’s slow start.

Hey now… We have all of May to point out the 2019 Washington Nationals were 19-31 before they won the WS. But after June 1 all bets are off 

[Linus]

Us humans are funny, we focus on complete outlier outcomes and ignore what happens 90% of the time. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

Or they could just play like they did for May-July last year. They were well above that pace during that time. My HOPE is that getting Lewis back injects some juice into the lineup, but that is probably putting too much emphasis on just one guy. 

I don't think they are as bad as 7-15 shows, but they have to start getting something to click at some point.

[Muppet]

Didn't the Royals come back from the bottom of the barrel to win a WS a few years back? They realized that they sucked because they were all addicted to Candy Crush. Ditched their phones and took off. 

[chpettit19]

77-63 doesn't sound all that hard at all, actually. This gave me more hope than I had when I woke up today. That's a 55% winning percentage. Just win series. That's all it is. 2 out of 3. 3 out of 4. Mix in a sweep or 2 of the White Sox to make up for the series you don't win (obviously aren't going to win every series). I was expecting to need closer to a 100-win pace. This is an 89-win pace. I still wouldn't bet on it, but I didn't expect them to win 87 games before the season started so I already wasn't betting on that.

It's so early still. And 89-win pace is not a crazy ask. They were on a much better pace most of last year. I wouldn't bet on them getting to 87 wins, but it's not the craziest thing ever.

[Mike Sixel]

14 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

77-63 doesn't sound all that hard at all, actually. This gave me more hope than I had when I woke up today. That's a 55% winning percentage. Just win series. That's all it is. 2 out of 3. 3 out of 4. Mix in a sweep or 2 of the White Sox to make up for the series you don't win (obviously aren't going to win every series). I was expecting to need closer to a 100-win pace. This is an 89-win pace. I still wouldn't bet on it, but I didn't expect them to win 87 games before the season started so I already wasn't betting on that.

It's so early still. And 89-win pace is not a crazy ask. They were on a much better pace most of last year. I wouldn't bet on them getting to 87 wins, but it's not the craziest thing ever.

Agreed, but I have real doubts at this point....

[KirbyDome89]

17 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

Hey now… We have all of May to point out the 2019 Washington Nationals were 19-31 before they won the WS. But after June 1 all bets are off 

I'm waiting for the 2006 references to start.

[KirbyDome89]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

77-63 doesn't sound all that hard at all, actually. This gave me more hope than I had when I woke up today. That's a 55% winning percentage. Just win series. That's all it is. 2 out of 3. 3 out of 4. Mix in a sweep or 2 of the White Sox to make up for the series you don't win (obviously aren't going to win every series). I was expecting to need closer to a 100-win pace. This is an 89-win pace. I still wouldn't bet on it, but I didn't expect them to win 87 games before the season started so I already wasn't betting on that.

It's so early still. And 89-win pace is not a crazy ask. They were on a much better pace most of last year. I wouldn't bet on them getting to 87 wins, but it's not the craziest thing ever.

 

Hard is relative. For a good team in a bad division that's very doable. Their pace last year was inflated by a glut of early games vs bad teams. Maybe they sweep Chicago and LA this week. It wouldn't be shocking, both those teams are absolute garbage and they've played like it lately, but sustaining a winning pace is the issue. They've almost completely used up their margin for error and it isn't even May yet. Also, they haven't exactly had a tough schedule and they're still puking all over themselves vs some pretty bad to mediocre competition.

Their best month last year was May, and they finished 4 games over. 500. They did that once. Now we're asking basically the same squad to replicate that 2x just to claw their way back to .500. The one thing they have going for them is the ALC looks a lot like the 2023 version, and really the AL as a whole feels pretty wide open. 

[chpettit19]

37 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Hard is relative. For a good team in a bad division that's very doable. Their pace last year was inflated by a glut of early games vs bad teams. Maybe they sweep Chicago and LA this week. It wouldn't be shocking, both those teams are absolute garbage and they've played like it lately, but sustaining a winning pace is the issue. They've almost completely used up their margin for error and it isn't even May yet. Also, they haven't exactly had a tough schedule and they're still puking all over themselves vs some pretty bad to mediocre competition.

Their best month last year was May, and they finished 4 games over. 500. They did that once. Now we're asking basically the same squad to replicate that 2x just to claw their way back to .500. The one thing they have going for them is the ALC looks a lot like the 2023 version, and really the AL as a whole feels pretty wide open. 

And that's why I said I wouldn't bet on them doing it.

I don't care about their best month, though. The first half of the season they were 54-42. They were 9-13 after their first 22 games last year and had just that best month of May where they were 4 games over .500 yet they managed to be 12 games over .500 at the halfway point of the season. That month of May being their best doesn't seem to be telling much of the story.

Again, I wouldn't have bet on them winning 87 games before the season, and I wouldn't bet on them doing it now. But winning at an 89-win pace isn't outrageous. They have 140 games left. I'm not going to let 22 games make a drastic change to my opinions at the start of the season just like I wouldn't in the middle of the season. Baseball is a long season. Carlos Santana was hitting .133, Matt Wallner was in AAA, and Alex Kirilloff was hitting .279 on this date a year ago. I'm just saying that I'm going to stick to my guess of the Twins being about a .500 club at this point and not let even this horrid start have me jumping off the cliff just because others are. I still think this team has the pitching to go on a run, but the lack of offense will keep them from being all that great. The horrible run happening at the beginning of the year doesn't change my opinion. Yet.

[Riverbrian]

Here is some positive math. 

In 2024 the Chicago White Sox had the lowest team OPS with .617.

So far in 2025... the Twins are currently sitting with a team OPS of .617

While I'm concerned about the offense. This team isn't going to finish with a .617 OPS. The numbers are going to go up and maybe... just maybe... that will produce a winning streak or two. 

 

[KirbyDome89]

12 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

And that's why I said I wouldn't bet on them doing it.

I don't care about their best month, though. The first half of the season they were 54-42. They were 9-13 after their first 22 games last year and had just that best month of May where they were 4 games over .500 yet they managed to be 12 games over .500 at the halfway point of the season. That month of May being their best doesn't seem to be telling much of the story.

Again, I wouldn't have bet on them winning 87 games before the season, and I wouldn't bet on them doing it now. But winning at an 89-win pace isn't outrageous. They have 140 games left. I'm not going to let 22 games make a drastic change to my opinions at the start of the season just like I wouldn't in the middle of the season. Baseball is a long season. Carlos Santana was hitting .133, Matt Wallner was in AAA, and Alex Kirilloff was hitting .279 on this date a year ago. I'm just saying that I'm going to stick to my guess of the Twins being about a .500 club at this point and not let even this horrid start have me jumping off the cliff just because others are. I still think this team has the pitching to go on a run, but the lack of offense will keep them from being all that great. The horrible run happening at the beginning of the year doesn't change my opinion. Yet.

I disagree about the month to month swings. I think it provides a better picture for performance. If you want to argue that it's slicing the pie a different way I won't argue, but I'd point out that the pie wasn't all that great in totality. 

I wouldn't bet on them either at this point, and my opinion of this team hasn't changed all that much based on their start, No, wining 89 games isn't outrageous. Again, this division is terrible, this team can abuse Chicago, and probably KC (for their remaining games) while holding water against Cleveland and Detroit and hit that mark if things break right. 

I think this teams lacks the talent most lament isn't shining through. If they do win win the division I believe it'll be because the ALC is the same type of dumpster fire that it was in 2023. 

[Mike Sixel]

6 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

I disagree about the month to month swings. I think it provides a better picture for performance. If you want to argue that it's slicing the pie a different way I won't argue, but I'd point out that the pie wasn't all that great in totality. 

I wouldn't bet on them either at this point, and my opinion of this team hasn't changed all that much based on their start, No, wining 89 games isn't outrageous. Again, this division is terrible, this team can abuse Chicago, and probably KC (for their remaining games) while holding water against Cleveland and Detroit and hit that mark if things break right. 

I think this teams lacks the talent most lament isn't shining through. If they do win win the division I believe it'll be because the ALC is the same type of dumpster fire that it was in 2023. 

Months are completely arbitrary breaking points in baseball. 

[KirbyDome89]

3 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Months are completely arbitrary breaking points in baseball. 

Where is the line for non arbitrary?

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

If we sweep the White Sox we are 10-15.  Being 5 games under .500 this early in the season is not a big deal.  You just can't create too big of a hole and not be able to climb back out of.  There are at minimum 3 big blown save opportunities,  that would put us close to .500 or over .500 even with the offense not fully clicking.    I still have a bet with my son that the Twins make the playoffs this year.  We will see.   

[Mike Sixel]

30 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Where is the line for non arbitrary?

I don't know. But you could do the fifteenth to the fifteenth and it would be as meaningful... I'm not talking sample sizes here.

[KirbyDome89]

14 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I don't know. But you could do the fifteenth to the fifteenth and it would be as meaningful... I'm not talking sample sizes here.

Isn't sample size inherently part of a conversation about pace? 

[Mike Sixel]

5 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Isn't sample size inherently part of a conversation about pace? 

I don't even know what we're taking about now. 

[KirbyDome89]

6 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I don't even know what we're taking about now. 

This thread is about the pace the Twins need to play at for the remainder of the season in order to reach 87 wins (or whatever hypothetical total gets them to the postseason) right? Their pace for a good chunk of last season was brought up. I pointed out their month to month was less impressive. You said that was arbitrary. I asked where the line was for non arbitrary. You said you weren't talking about sample sizes. Now we're here. 

[TheLeviathan]

On 4/23/2025 at 1:52 AM, KirbyDome89 said:

I disagree about the month to month swings. I think it provides a better picture for performance. If you want to argue that it's slicing the pie a different way I won't argue, but I'd point out that the pie wasn't all that great in totality. 

I wouldn't bet on them either at this point, and my opinion of this team hasn't changed all that much based on their start, No, wining 89 games isn't outrageous. Again, this division is terrible, this team can abuse Chicago, and probably KC (for their remaining games) while holding water against Cleveland and Detroit and hit that mark if things break right. 

I think this teams lacks the talent most lament isn't shining through. If they do win win the division I believe it'll be because the ALC is the same type of dumpster fire that it was in 2023. 

Agreed.  Honestly, with this team's pitching and crappy division they need like....one dude......to start hitting like an all-star and swinging their fortunes around.

I mean, had it not been for arguably one of our top 5 players (Jax) single-handedly turning 3 wins into losses this team would be 12-13 and 3 games out of the lead.  The division is that bad.

[Parfigliano]

On 4/22/2025 at 7:40 AM, Cory Engelhardt said:

Or they could just play like they did for May-July last year. They were well above that pace during that time. My HOPE is that getting Lewis back injects some juice into the lineup, but that is probably putting too much emphasis on just one guy. 

I don't think they are as bad as 7-15 shows, but they have to start getting something to click at some point.

I think they are as bad as 7-15 shows.  Crowd size shows I'm far from alone.

[laloesch]

13 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

I think they are as bad as 7-15 shows.  Crowd size shows I'm far from alone.

I agree with your assessment.  The offense has been HORRENDOUS.  Could they climb out of this hole they are in?  Yeah anything is possible I suppose.  Is it likely?  No.  The offensive roster is so anemic I just don't see it happening.  

Edouard Julien, Willi Castro, Carlos Correa, DaShawn Keirsey, Christian Vazquez, Mickey Gasper, Jose Miranda (when he was still up), Trevor Larnach.......yuck.  All of these players have hit horribly so far.

Byron Buxton has been doing better the last 7 games, but overall not a good start to his season other than he's healthy.  Bader and France have shown flashes, but not great overall either.  Brooks Lee looks like he needs more time in AAA.  

The few bright spots appear to be Luke Keaschall, Ryan Jeffers, and Matt Wallner.

That offense is not good enough to win 85 games in my opinion even with 3 strong starters in Lopez, Ryan, and Ober.

 

[USAFChief]

"The math is a problem."

- a young Chief to his mom after day one of "Algebra 1"

[Linus]

12 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

"The math is a problem."

- a young Chief to his mom after day one of "Algebra 1"

I resemble that.