Twins 2025 Prospect Previews: Kaelen Culpepper

[Jamie Cameron]

Spring training is around the corner. It’s time to get reacquainted with the Twins' 2024 draft class ahead of their first full season of professional baseball in 2025. First up: the team's first-rounder.

Image courtesy of © Brett Rojo-Imagn Images

Draft Context, Scouting and Signing
Kaelen Culpepper sat in the late first-round range on most industry draft boards throughout the 2024 MLB Draft cycle, and he fits a Twins draft archetype: high-character middle infielders with good athleticism and a track record of college production. Culpepper’s swing is one of beautiful simplicity. He’s upright and quiet. He drifts, rather than kicks into a swing underpinned by good bat speed and rotational acceleration. Despite above-average speed, Culpepper hasn’t been much of a baserunning threat (yet). His arm is plus, and he has good range in the infield. Culpepper should be a lock to stick at shortstop, at least in the medium term, despite starting there for only one of his collegiate seasons. It’s possible he slides over to third base at some point in his career.

The Twins were in on Culpepper heavily from the beginning of the year with Kansas State (and well before that, in fact). He finished his junior season with a bang, hitting for the cycle and launching a three-run home run off Hagen Smith at Regionals in the NCAA postseason. The Twins took Culpepper 21st overall (his exact spot on our Consensus Draft Board) and signed him to exactly the slot-prescribed bonus of $3,934,400.

2024 Pro Debut: Strengths and Opportunities
2024 Stats (A and A+): 26 games (112 PA), .242/.330/.394, 3 HR (8 XBH), 11 BB, 15 K, 4 SB 
Culpepper has a well-rounded skill set at the plate. He doesn’t strike out much (13.4% across two minor-league levels in 2024) and put up strong pitch-by-pitch metrics (82.1% Contact%). He’ll punish mistakes, too, Culpepper didn’t swing and miss at a single pitch in the zone in a nine-game debut at Low-A Fort Myers, which resulted in a .907 OPS and a quick promotion to High-A Cedar Rapids. 

There are some orange flags in his profile. Despite excellent plate coverage, Culpepper has been exposed a bit by spin, and a 33% chase rate could be problematic as he rises through the ranks of the Twins system. I think there’s a good chance Culpepper can get to solid-average power, to go with an above-average hit tool. While his chase rate is high, the Twins do not shy away from that, and will likely emphasize aggressive swing decisions in key parts of the strike zone to help Culpepper do plenty of damage on contact.

Expectations for 2025
I’d expect Culpepper to start 2025 at Cedar Rapids. He had a good start to his pro career, despite slowing down a little at the end of the season. The Twins will be hoping he follows the trail blazed by Luke Keaschall in his first full pro season, in which he made light work of High-A ball on the way to thriving at Double A, before injury cut short his season. In a best-case scenario for Culpepper, a strong 2025 ends in the upper minors and sets the stage for a 2026 debut with the big-league team.

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[miracleb]

Seems like the talk about his "glove" are more positive now.....than when he was drafted.  I sure hope he can stick at short!
:)

[Otaknam]

Hoping he dominates in A+ and does the same in AA ball, which  is usually the separating level for prospects. So far so good both offensively and defensively. 

[High heat]

I like to hear the defensive profile of guys early on and at the lower levels.  I feel like hitting profiles always change as players mature and pitching gets better.  
 

Glad to hear the smooth and looks to stick at SS 

[terrydactyls]

Jamie - Do you know if he got a de-coder ring to go with his belt buckle? 😇

[Jamie Cameron]

50 minutes ago, miracleb said:

Seems like the talk about his "glove" are more positive now.....than when he was drafted.  I sure hope he can stick at short!
:)

I'm glad multiple people brought this up. I didn't discuss it in much depth in the article, but in college, the SS opportunity only presented itself in his junior season (he started at 3B). He's always had the arm, but I think that context is helpful. The actions, internal clock will all take some more time at the pro level. I was impressed with what I saw defensively when he debuted, though.

[Dman]

I wasn't a huge fan of the pick as I was hoping they would go with Caldwell or Janek in that spot, but watching him last year has made me come around.  I thought he looked legit at short though he did have some rough plays there as well.  I do love guys that make contact and have good zone control.  I also love his speed which seems a bit underrated to me.  

We'll see if the spin and chase rate cause him more problems as he moves up, but given what was left for the Twins to grab at 21 I think they grabbed the right player there.

Love your writeups Jamie keep them coming.

[LambchoP]

Maybe he develops into a solid SS/3rd baseman that hits for high avg, 10-20 HR and steals bases. A lot of our top prospects are pitchers or outfielders. Other than Keaschal it'll be nice to see some infield prospects move through the ranks :)

[rdehring]

Add me to the list of those who appreciate and are looking forward to these post, Jamie.  Thanks.

[Nashvilletwin]

Advice for this young man: be dedicated, listen closely and learn your craft through the Twins’ excellent minor league system. When you reach AA, have your agent start demanding a trade.  Only reconsider if Falvey and Rocco are gone. This is your best chance to be a big time major leaguer.

[chpettit19]

On a human note, I love the videos of guys hearing their names called or getting the phone call they're being drafted. I watched the draft and remember watching him and his parents as his name was called. Special moment for them all. That clip doesn't show his interview with the MLB Network people after, but he sounds like a great kid with his head on straight. That stuff probably (certainly) biases me a little, but I like the pick. He may not be a star in the making, but I think you'll get everything he's got and that's all I think we can ask from these kids. Put in the work and give yourself the best shot you have at becoming a big leaguer.

[FargoFanMan]

He’ll be arriving and getting his feet wet just about the time Correa can start contemplating a move to 3B. Start a succession pattern at SS. About that time Royce after having a few monster seasons will be ready to cash in and Correa can slide over and let this guy man SS for 4 or 5 years. I love that the outlook is that he can stick at SS. I don’t think that was ever really the course for Royce Lewis despite all we were told while he was coming up. Great pick. Great guy. Good article.

[madtowntwin]

From both a physicality and a "Bio Perspective" on Draft Day I began dreaming of a Tim Anderson type ceiling for Kaelen....I know - A lot on the young man's shoulders, but a fan can dream!!

[rdehring]

15 minutes ago, madtowntwin said:

From both a physicality and a "Bio Perspective" on Draft Day I began dreaming of a Tim Anderson type ceiling for Kaelen....I know - A lot on the young man's shoulders, but a fan can dream!!

Sure hope, madtown, that the similarities are physical only.  Not a fan of Mr. Anderson as a person.

[FargoFanMan]

1 minute ago, rdehring said:

Sure hope, madtown, that the similarities are physical only.  Not a fan of Mr. Anderson as a person.

A solid SS for a handful of years though which is all you can truly ask for. Gotta love a SS with a little fire and grittiness.

[big dog]

4 hours ago, FargoFanMan said:

A solid SS for a handful of years though which is all you can truly ask for. Gotta love a SS with a little fire and grittiness.

Down goes Anderson! Down goes Anderson! An all-time classic. I'm sure he'd rather be remembered for the batting title, though.

[Jamie Cameron]

7 hours ago, Dman said:

I wasn't a huge fan of the pick as I was hoping they would go with Caldwell or Janek in that spot, but watching him last year has made me come around.  I thought he looked legit at short though he did have some rough plays there as well.  I do love guys that make contact and have good zone control.  I also love his speed which seems a bit underrated to me.  

We'll see if the spin and chase rate cause him more problems as he moves up, but given what was left for the Twins to grab at 21 I think they grabbed the right player there.

Love your writeups Jamie keep them coming.

Appreciate the kind words and the comments. Thanks for reading.

[Jamie Cameron]

7 hours ago, rdehring said:

Add me to the list of those who appreciate and are looking forward to these post, Jamie.  Thanks.

Thanks kindly for saying so. DeBarge is imminent.

[DocBauer]

Interesting that you named Keaschall in the post because when Culpepper was initially drafted I had "deja vu all over again". When Keaschall was picked, I said to myself, "didn't they draft almost the same player last year in Schobell?" (Plus they tripled down somewhat with Riss and Shuffield) And then I said when they grabbed Culpepper it was "didn't they just draft Keaschall last year"? Lol

I have to remind myself from time to time that every draft is unique unto itself. 

Full confession now, when I first heard the Twins were interested in Culpepper I wasn't thrilled. I didn't see the upside at first from early scouting reports. I KNOW you DON'T necessarily draft for need, but there were a couple guys I really liked that made sense to me on a need basis. And then I really wanted a HS SS with the supplemental pick, if not the 1st. I wanted a young SS to groom as a possible Correa replacement in a few years.

As the draft approached and happened, I had a better appreciation for Culpepper. If I understand/remember correctly he was playing 3B as K State already had an established SS in place. Therefore, he finally got to play SS in 2024. It sure sounds like he's got the athleticism and arm to stick at SS. It looks like the basic bat to ball ability is there to be a solid hitter with XB POP if not real HR power. I'm guessing, as of today, he projects to 12-15 HR with consistent 30+ Dbls power and the ability to steal double digit bases. Also sounds like he's strong enough, and fast enough to project POTENTIALLY more HR power and MAYBE 20 SB ability. 

ASSUMING the early results of his bat and his college experience puts him on a fast trajectory, he MIGHT be ready for ML duty before Correa is ready to move off of SS. Cart before the horse I know!

I know "logjams" seldom actually occur in MLB, but it's possible the Twins have Lewis, Correa, Lee, Keaschall and Culpepper all at or ready for ML time in 2yrs. And that's not even including Miranda, Julien, and Eeles getting right or improving. But it sure would be a nice dilemma to have!

Really appreciate the write ups! Keep the good work coming!

[Fatbat]

Culpepper could end up being one of the better 1st round picks in the last decade.  He shows great athleticism on the field and works his butt off in skill development. His drive to be the best will get him to MLB faster than some realize.  I would expect him to thrive at AA because its a hitting league.  Having him, Keaschall, Eeles, Schoebel, Amick and Debarge along with plenty of others developing their craft in the minors is why we have such a highly ranked farm system.  (Haven’t even got to the international signings)Drafting great athletes with high character seems simple enough and we have definitely done well at it. 

Culpepper is the guy to watch this spring. Hoping he is a Saint by August so I can watch him in person!