The Minnesota Twins Project to Have Baseball’s Best Bullpen, With Room to Improve

[twinzcynic]

I'm dealing with Deja vu this morning (the phenomenon not the downtown establishment). I could swear I read this exact same article last year, even down to the "we're so deep, gReAt relievers might have to start in the minors". Classic.

[NYCTK]

36 minutes ago, Linus said:

I thought WAR was considered a bad way to measure bullpens?  If the Twins pen was considered 2nd best last year based on WAR then I would disregard it.  

A better view of "success" for a bullpen is WPA. 

The Twins were 19th in baseball with the Guardians and Brewers clear best in their leagues. 

Caveat with WPA is it isn't predictive like FIP tries to be. But it's IMO the best descriptive stat for relievers. 

[Otaknam]

It seems obvious by now that Varland needs to embrace a bullpen role. His stuff is electric in short stints, as we saw in 2013. Also, Alcala did some good things, has good stuff, and he has the talent take a step forward. Hopefully Canterino and Prielipp are healthy and ready to contribute this season, Prielipp as a starter. It’s hard to have confidence that Stewart will remain healthy, given his history. And if they don’t trade Paddock, which I think they will do, he would bring value to the bullpen, though I think they will give him a shot at starter.

[NYCTK]

11 minutes ago, Otaknam said:

It seems obvious by now that Varland needs to embrace a bullpen role. His stuff is electric in short stints, as we saw in 2013. Also, Alcala did some good things, has good stuff, and he has the talent take a step forward. Hopefully Canterino and Prielipp are healthy and ready to contribute this season, Prielipp as a starter. It’s hard to have confidence that Stewart will remain healthy, given his history. And if they don’t trade Paddock, which I think they will do, he would bring value to the bullpen, though I think they will give him a shot at starter.

That they keep trying to make him a starter while refusing to allow Jax another opportunity is indicative of a team that has no clue what they're doing. 

[LambchoP]

I think it could go either way. The late innings should be ok with Jax and Duran. After that, it's a lot of what ifs. Sands needs to repeat what he did last year. Stewart and Alcala could be great weapons too, IF they stay healthy and consistent. Who knows what we'll get out of Topa, Henriquez, Varland or the rule 5 guy. Varland might not even start in the majors this year. Use his last option year to see if he can cut it as a full-time reliever in AAA. I do think we need a quality lefty. Someone like Chafin should come fairly cheap. If we can't swing a lefty, at least a quality one year vet like Robinson, Yates or someone else we can pair with Sands as our 3-4. Maybe we get lucky and Canterino and or Prelipp are healthy and pitch way too well to get left off the roster.

[NYCTK]

5 minutes ago, LambchoP said:

I think it could go either way. The late innings should be ok with Jax and Duran. After that, it's a lot of what ifs. Sands needs to repeat what he did last year. Stewart and Alcala could be great weapons too, IF they stay healthy and consistent. Who knows what we'll get out of Topa, Henriquez, Varland or the rule 5 guy. Varland might not even start in the majors this year. Use his last option year to see if he can cut it as a full-time reliever in AAA. I do think we need a quality lefty. Someone like Chafin should come fairly cheap. If we can't swing a lefty, at least a quality one year vet like Robinson, Yates or someone else we can pair with Sands as our 3-4. Maybe we get lucky and Canterino and or Prelipp are healthy and pitch way too well to get left off the roster.

Twins are not, under any condition, paying 10 mil to a free agent bullpen arm which is what Yates and Robertson will get, minimum. 

[DJL44]

FWIW - Varland was outpitched last season by Ronny Henriquez both in AAA and MLB.

[Vanimal46]

13 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

FWIW - Varland was outpitched last season by Ronny Henriquez both in AAA and MLB.

Yeah, but Henriquez wasn’t born in MN so that’s why Varland gets the nod over him from most posters. 

[Danchat]

19 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Yeah, but Henriquez wasn’t born in MN so that’s why Varland gets the nod over him from most posters. 

I would suspect it has more to due with Varland's velocity uptick upon joining the bullpen and his strikeout rate compared to Henriquez. Ronny did a decent job last year but only hit 7.0 K/9 and was a mid-season add to the 40 man roster whereas there has been some amount of prospect hype for Varland.

[ashbury]

6 hours ago, Doctor Wu said:

Whoa, I had no idea his innings numbers were that miniscule. Ouch! He has obviously shown talent in recent years, but his injury history is a red flag. 

The lack of innings isn't solely due to injury.  I specified major league innings, because in some seasons he put in more work than that but it was in the minors.  A combination of injury plus not being good enough until he apparently put things together is worrisome.  He's not without talent and is one of those guys who shows flashes for long enough to make you believe.  Maybe this is the year....

[DJL44]

33 minutes ago, Danchat said:

I would suspect it has more to due with Varland's velocity uptick upon joining the bullpen and his strikeout rate compared to Henriquez. Ronny did a decent job last year but only hit 7.0 K/9 and was a mid-season add to the 40 man roster whereas there has been some amount of prospect hype for Varland.

Henriquez was on the 40-man roster the whole year. That's why he's out of options.

I agree that there has been a lot of hype around Louie Varland but he's 3 years older than Henriquez and was less effective than Henriquez last season. Varland had a very bad 2024 which is why it is puzzling to see him in this article as a reason why the Twins bullpen could be elite. 

[DJL44]

3 hours ago, High heat said:

Matt Canterino might be a very nice late inning option.  Like Stewart he has to find some healthy and is hard to count or rely on but you have a successful transfer to the bullpen from Varland a healthy Stewart and Canterino added with Jax and Duran I can see why on paper it looks deep and very good.

I just having trouble holding my breath for these things.

I don't see Canterino as an option until at least a few months into the season. He hasn't pitched in 2 years and has never pitched above Double-A. Start him in AAA and see if he can do the job. He needs to prove he can be both effective and available to pitch.

[D.C Twins]

Brock Stewart staying healthy is the biggest wildcard.

If he is healthy for the full year.... this bullpen could get very dangerous.

[DJL44]

My reasons why the Twins bullpen could be very good

1) Depth. They have 14 relievers on the 40-man roster who could contribute. None of them look terrible. Returns to health for Topa and Stewart would be quite helpful.

2) They cut ties with Caleb Thielbar. To help Rocco manage the bullpen they have to take away the poor performers. He can't help himself with the platoons even when the platoon player is lousy.

3) Jhoan Duran can pitch better than he did in 2024. He's capable of much more if he refines his location and they improve his pitch sequencing.

 

[Linus]

1 hour ago, Danchat said:

I would suspect it has more to due with Varland's velocity uptick upon joining the bullpen and his strikeout rate compared to Henriquez. Ronny did a decent job last year but only hit 7.0 K/9 and was a mid-season add to the 40 man roster whereas there has been some amount of prospect hype for Varland.

Yea if you look at Varland objectively there are reasons to be doubtful.  He hasn’t been good as a starter and has one short successful stint in the pen when batters had never seen him before.

[jmlease1]

3 hours ago, NYCTK said:

That they keep trying to make him a starter while refusing to allow Jax another opportunity is indicative of a team that has no clue what they're doing. 

Varland had more MLB success as a starter than Jax did; while Varland was bad last season, he was good in his initial cup of coffee and showed promise in 2023. Of course they were going to give him a chance to start in 2024. He failed, and so now he's almost certainly going to the bullpen...we've seen nothing that suggests they intend him to start in 2025. Who exactly are the teams in MLB who wouldn't have given Varland a couple of chances to start in MLB after being good in his initial shot in 2022? I'd love to know.

People need to move on from this fantasy about Jax as a starter.

[old nurse]

4 hours ago, High heat said:

Matt Canterino might be a very nice late inning option.  Like Stewart he has to find some healthy and is hard to count or rely on but you have a successful transfer to the bullpen from Varland a healthy Stewart and Canterino added with Jax and Duran I can see why on paper it looks deep and very good.

I just having trouble holding my breath for these things.

They can call Canterino to take Stewart’s spot when he goes on the 60d IL. Who comes up after Canterino breaks down.  These guys have great pitches when healthy but that hasn’t been many days 

[NYCTK]

4 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

Varland had more MLB success as a starter than Jax did; while Varland was bad last season, he was good in his initial cup of coffee and showed promise in 2023. Of course they were going to give him a chance to start in 2024. He failed, and so now he's almost certainly going to the bullpen...we've seen nothing that suggests they intend him to start in 2025. Who exactly are the teams in MLB who wouldn't have given Varland a couple of chances to start in MLB after being good in his initial shot in 2022? I'd love to know.

People need to move on from this fantasy about Jax as a starter.

Sure. Jax 4 years ago was worse than Varland last year. 

I thought I saw someone report that the Twins were going to, once again, stretch out Varland in ST, but I could be wrong about that. 

And I will never stop criticizing a team from disallowing a very good pitcher from pitching more innings just because he was bad 4 seasons ago. Bad teams make bad decisions... 

[Vanimal46]

14 hours ago, old nurse said:

Years ago I heard a guy n Common Man talk baseball with him. Entertained, informative. Gave out his web site, Seth Speaks. It does seem like a time when they all formed this site it was about the game itself and how it was played. Now it feels like a site for would be GMs and people to complain about everything. The site seems to be clickbait city. Get them arguing so they get more clicks 

It’s really unfortunate this site has been on auto-pilot for years while the ownership team builds new sites for other baseball teams. In the early years I learned a ton about the game, and felt like an informed and knowledgeable baseball fan. 

Now we get articles like how the Twins can win a WS 7 years from now and by listing the current top 10 prospects hitting their 99th percentile outcome. Examples like this is why my Caretaker subscription won’t be renewed. 

[twinzcynic]

16 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Now we get articles like how the Twins can win a WS 7 years from now and by listing the current top 10 prospects hitting their 99th percentile outcome. Examples like this is why my Caretaker subscription won’t be renewed. 

Yeah I have a theory that around 3 years ago, the powers that be on this site got greater access to the team and got close with Falvey and/or Lavine. Because of this we RARELY will get a negative article on that tandem or even Rocco. I know I'm not satisfied with the every other year playoff appearance only due to being in one of the worst divisions of all time, but instead we get the same article about how our projected bullpen is absolutely elite.

[T.O.]

14 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Duran is a competent reliever, but I don't think he is dominant.  Sands numbers were better than Duran basically across the board.  Duran throws heat, but the reults don't really live up to the hype.

This BP isn't even the best in the division, much less all of MLB

I'm not big on analytics. I listen to my gut. When a reliever comes in if I cringe there is a reason. Like if Thielbar came in I would cringe. He's either going to be good or very bad. Which one are we going to see this time? Last year I cringed a lot when Duran came in. He blew a lot of games and it seems he did better in save situations than non save. Perhaps an attitude problem?
I think the ringing the gong and fire on sign board thing is getting old. I sometimes wonder if some players take things like that and feel too self important, trying too hard to live up to the hype and not succeeding.
Jax had some rocky times in 23 but was awesome in 24, solid and consistent. I think he should be the #1 closer.

[stringer bell]

1 hour ago, Vanimal46 said:

It’s really unfortunate this site has been on auto-pilot for years while the ownership team builds new sites for other baseball teams. In the early years I learned a ton about the game, and felt like an informed and knowledgeable baseball fan. 

Now we get articles like how the Twins can win a WS 7 years from now and by listing the current top 10 prospects hitting their 99th percentile outcome. Examples like this is why my Caretaker subscription won’t be renewed. 

The majority of articles are not overly positive or optimistic. This one was, of course. It's really tough when there is no team news to report. That is why too many of us know who Diego Cantaya and Mickey Gasper are. I don't know how many angles of inertia can be written about and there has been much written lately about ownership. 

[TownBall]

18 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

Oh please!  Did anyone actually watch this bullpen?  Last year Duran lost 9 games.  When you are labeled as a top reliever, losing 9 games in the bullpen is disastrous.  Also the Bullpen had the worst record in all of baseball by far in letting inherited runners score.  Not much of an endorsement.  The bullpen, like most other areas of the team is very fragile

I did. Yes, Duran may have "lost" us 9 games but look at the underlying stats. His xERA was just slightly up from the year before and his xFIP was actually lower in 2024 in 2023, Not to mention, his hard rate percentage dropped by almost 2 points as well. We were top in the MLB for inherited runners scored in 2024 at 41%, but in 2023 we were in the bottom 7 with a 28% rate. I'm guessing this upcoming year it will be closer to league average with how the inherited runner's statistic deviates throughout the year. Looking at our bullpen, you have a bonafide top 3 and getting a realiable lefty would be huge. Take a look at other bullpens around the league and you'll that there's only a handful you would definitely take over the Twins.

[David Maro]

Here we go again with the nonsense of best BP. There was only 2 BP arms in last years BP that showed up. That would be Jax and Sands. What makes anyone think this year will be different. Duran started the season on IL and Stewart made his way there. And can't forget the trade with the Mariners that brought 2 arms that spent the season on the IL. Then mixing in Varland and Alcala and who can forget Dobnak. How about we make these judgments closer to Memorial Day.

[DJL44]

Leaving this here as well, because it is relevant to the #1 reason the Twins will have an elite bullpen as listed in the article

Louie Varland's relief splits from 2024

MLB 9.87 ERA, 1.673 WHIP .859 OPS against (17.1 IP)

AAA 7.66 ERA 1.433 WHIP .740 OPS against (22.1 IP)

[miller761]

Having good starting pitching will make our bullpen better. Less innings to cover leads to better results. When we lost Paddock and Ryan we had to turn to the young guys. The results were not as good as the pitchers they replaced and they don't go as deep into games. Our bullpen was much better prior to the injuries. There was more stress put on the pen and they were not able to hold up. The healthier our starting pitching is the better our bullpen can and will be. I for one agree that our pen could be the best or top 3 in baseball this year.

[Swing Batter-Batter]

17 hours ago, Yawn Gardenhose said:

Hasn't a version of this article been written prior to the last 3 seasons or so? Smacks of familiarity 

I'm fairly certain we heard almost the exact same thing last year.

[Vanimal46]

7 hours ago, stringer bell said:

The majority of articles are not overly positive or optimistic. This one was, of course. It's really tough when there is no team news to report. That is why too many of us know who Diego Cantaya and Mickey Gasper are. I don't know how many angles of inertia can be written about and there has been much written lately about ownership. 

The problem I’m talking about has been going on for years. The philosophy of this website changed long ago. They’d rather post 10 Buzzfeed quality articles per day than 2 thought provoking ones. 

And hey, I guess the TD ownership team isn’t wrong. An author can write an article “3 signs baseball is on the way” 1. It’s January. 2. Time keeps moving. 3. The season hasn’t been cancelled. And it’ll get comments. So why put any effort into it? 

[Fred]

On 1/16/2025 at 8:09 PM, Whitey333 said:

Oh please!  Did anyone actually watch this bullpen?  Last year Duran lost 9 games.  When you are labeled as a top reliever, losing 9 games in the bullpen is disastrous.  Also the Bullpen had the worst record in all of baseball by far in letting inherited runners score.  Not much of an endorsement.  The bullpen, like most other areas of the team is very fragile

From my perspective, the inherited numbers thing is the most important stat in relief pitching, like RISP is for a hitter. Put up good numbers in both of those and finish with a better record by 10 games.

[Doctor Wu]

On 1/18/2025 at 1:12 AM, old nurse said:

They can call Canterino to take Stewart’s spot when he goes on the 60d IL. Who comes up after Canterino breaks down.  These guys have great pitches when healthy but that hasn’t been many days 

Canterino is like some sort of secret treasure chest that for several years Twins fans have wanted to dig up and open. Lots of hope and expectations. But like others have written, he needs to show he's healthy and then put up some impressive numbers in the minors before we start to think about having him at Target Field.