Max Kepler Is the Best Player Derek Falvey Has Let Walk for Nothing

[Greggory Masterson]

I’m not sure that’s a good thing, but it is notable.

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-Imagn Sports

Last Thursday, Max Kepler agreed to a $10 million contract with the Philadelphia Phillies. He’ll play his first game outside the organization he spent half his life in. The club had opportunities to trade him over the last dozen years but never pulled the trigger.

After thinking on it for a while, I’m going to stand by the title of this article. Under Derek Falvey, no Twin has left the organization for no return while being better at baseball than Max Kepler.

Opinions among fans vary wildly on Kepler. For most of his career, he was a good glove at a non-premium position with a low batting average but decent on-base skills and 15- to 20-homer pop in his streaky bat. His actual value and performance probably lie precisely in the middle of fans' most wild positive and negative views of him.

He certainly isn't an elite player, but he wasn’t bad. At worst, he was slightly but frustratingly below average. I wrote that title myself, and I keep asking myself if I’m sure, but I really think I am. I’m not being hyperbolic. And I’ve never even been a Max Kepler guy. Beyond that, I just think it's notable.

You might have other names in mind that fly in the face of that statement. Brent Rooker is a multi-time All-Star, but the Twins got Chris Paddack and Emilio Pagán for him and Taylor Rogers. Luis Gil just won Rookie of the Year, but the Yankees didn’t get him for free; they had to give up Jake Cave! Yennier Cano, Spencer Steer, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Cade Povich, and Steven Hajjar were let go in trades. Inadvisable trades in hindsight? Yes. But they did get something back for them in the forms of Tyler Mahle and Jorge López.

Sonny Gray walked for free — but the Twins got a compensation pick that they turned into Kyle DeBarge. Lance Lynn netted them Tyler Austin and Luis Rijo. LaMonte Wade Jr.? Shaun Anderson. Ryan Pressly? Jorge Alcala and Gilberto Celestino. Eduardo Escobar? Jhoan Durán and friends. Mitch Garver? Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Ronny Henriquez. Gio Urshela? Alejandro Hidalgo. Danny Coulombe? Cash.

If you want to be hyperbolic or pragmatic alike, you can very well claim that some of these trades were “for nothing.” The Jorge Polanco trade may give the Twins two 2024 relief innings from Justin Topa, but I’m pedantic and will insist that that’s not nothing.

It speaks to an organizational philosophy: don’t let value die on the vine or fall to the ground ripe. Teams generally have a similar idea, exercised to one degree or another, but teams toward the bottom of spending need to be good at it. They lose value when players leave in free agency. Players traded allow the organization to retain at least some of it. The best organizations find a proper balance of retaining current value to remain competitive and flipping assets to keep the organization young and healthy.

Among the assets that weren’t traded, many of them had something approximating no value remaining when they left. I won’t bore you with all of the names, but here are some: Miguel Sanó, Marwin González, Logan Morrison, J.A. Happ, Kenta Maeda, and Jake Odorizzi. Some of these guys signed deals, but the writing was on the wall due to age, injury, or something else.

So who is Kepler’s competition for this title? I’ve done some research and have a few names. First, there’s Eddie Rosario, who was non-tendered in 2020 with a year remaining on his contract. The Twins held on too long to get anything in return for him, and no team claimed him on waivers. He’s been all over the board in terms of performance since leaving Minnesota, but I’m listing him because of the effect he had on the Braves’ 2021 World Series.

Fellow Bomba Squad teammates Jonathan Schoop and C.J. Cron were solid regulars for a few years after their one-off year in Minnesota (including an All-Star appearance for Cron). Both managed to play themselves out of the league in their early thirties, and both maxed out at $7.5 million in salary for any one year.

One name that caught Twins fans by surprise was Kyle Gibson, who has made $50 million in the years since he was in Minnesota, though he’s only had one season below a 4.70 ERA (albeit an All-Star year). The Twins let Martín Pérez walk the same year, and he had an electric 2022 with a sub-3.00 ERA that oddly earned him no Cy Young votes, but outside of that year, he hasn’t had an ERA under 4.50.

Zack Littell is a dark horse in this conversation. After being released by Minnesota, he’s bounced around a bit but has spent the last year and a half as a very solid and cheap starting pitcher for the Rays. This is an outcome few in Minnesota foresaw after three years as a long or middle reliever in Minnesota, though he was only 25 at the time he was released.

The Twins have also had scares in the Rule 5 Draft over the last couple of years in Akil Baddoo and Tyler Wells, but Baddoo has played his way out of Detroit, and Wells is already 30 and has struggled with health.

It really seems like Derek Falvey has tried to emulate the models of successful small-market clubs, selling whenever he can, whether that be on Taylor Rogers and José Berríos or Nelson Cruz and Brian Dozier. Extensions also play a part in this, such as with Sanó or Byron Buxton. The former stayed in the organization until he wasn’t worth anything in trade. The latter may do the same, but there were rumblings at the time that Buxton was actively being shopped as the contract was negotiated.

In truth, we’re working with a limited sample, as Falvey has only run the team for eight seasons, and only two of those seasons — 2018 and 2021 — saw the Twins in sell mode. Even so, they’ve made efforts to ensure the talent cycle continues. If Kepler turns in three or four more seasons as an average regular, he’s probably the best player the Twins have let walk since 2017.

But I guess the question is: should he have made it this far? That’s really the kicker here, isn’t it?

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[sweetmusicviola16]

Carlos Santana walked too. No more strumming.

[AceWrigley]

25 minutes ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

Carlos Santana walked too. No more strumming.

Carlos signed for one year and played for one year. Deal fulfilled. No comparison.

[mnfireman]

He also would have walked a lot sooner had Falvey not signed him to a team-friendly extension that bought out a couple years of FA...

[Riverbrian]

I would have cut Kepler in June of 2023. 

[Brandon]

Jeff Hoffman was let go for nothing.  Ouch! 

[Jocko87]

49 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I would have cut Kepler in June of 2023. 

For him to go on a 2nd half run with someone else.  TwinsDaily would have your head forever.

It is a good premise though and had he been able to stay near that level there would have been several profitable exit options.  It's a fickle thing and the player deserves as much blame as Falvey.

If the best guy that got away got a 1 year basically veteran prove it deal to be a good defensiverole player, that ain't bad. I'm sure it's less than Max had envisioned as some point.

[Jocko87]

44 minutes ago, Brandon said:

Jeff Hoffman was let go for nothing.  Ouch! 

Journeyman reliever minor league free agents aren't really the same thing.  He exercised an option in his contract for the release if I remember correctly so not much to be done.

I wish the Red Sox luck on this one.  Bold move.

[Riverbrian]

32 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

For him to go on a 2nd half run with someone else.  TwinsDaily would have your head forever.

It is a good premise though and had he been able to stay near that level there would have been several profitable exit options.  It's a fickle thing and the player deserves as much blame as Falvey.

If the best guy that got away got a 1 year basically veteran prove it deal to be a good defensiverole player, that ain't bad. I'm sure it's less than Max had envisioned as some point.

Yep... we would have lost that incredible 2nd half run under my direction. I'll own that. 

However, after 2.5 years of below average leading up to that moment. I would have slept ok.

And he was back at that below average thing he was doing in 2024.  

Now, If he kept that 2nd half run pace going into 2024. Then I'd really wear that egg on my face. However, if he kept that pace going into 2024. He'd be signing a 6 year deal with the Phillies. 

 

[mikelink45]

Interesting history - we have lost much more than we have gained.  Cleveland is a good model for us - they trade or sell a year before the player leaves.  They get something and that helps with the minor leagues and future prospect development.  

I am not happy with our model, but.....

[sweetmusicviola16]

2 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

I would have cut Kepler in June of 2023. 

I would have too.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

People think he was really something because he occupied a spot for a long time.  He was not without his merits, but I don't think he will be missed much at all.  He had one great season, and two periods of about 10 weeks that were good.  Otherwise. . . . zzzzzzzz.

[RpR]

If Lurch Wallner is the right fielder, he will be missed a lot.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

1 minute ago, RpR said:

If Lurch Wallner is the right fielder, he will be missed a lot.

Gosh, if only weak contact Kepler were there to drive in all of those runs. . . . . oops. . . wait a minute, it doesn't work that way. 

I think Max Kepler might be the nicest guy in the world, but as a baseball player he got way too many chances with the Twins.  I wish him well and hope he has a great season elsewhere.  It was past time for him to move on. 

[RpR]

52 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

Gosh, if only weak contact Kepler were there to drive in all of those runs. . . . . oops. . . wait a minute, it doesn't work that way. 

I think Max Kepler might be the nicest guy in the world, but as a baseball player he got way too many chances with the Twins.  I wish him well and hope he has a great season elsewhere.  It was past time for him to move on. 

Better than here comes the ball-there goes the ball Wallner.

In ten years Keplers fielding average in Right Field  is .993 - Wallner in 3 years is .978, they will miss Kepler greatly.

I do believe, Kepler wanted out of Minn.

 

[Parfigliano]

We're the one year Chron and Schoop were with TC off years?  Chron hit 25 HR and had a .780 OPS.  Schoop hit 23 HR with a .777 OPS.

[Greglw3]

1 hour ago, RpR said:

If Lurch Wallner is the right fielder, he will be missed a lot.

 

8 minutes ago, RpR said:

Better than here comes the ball-there goes the ball Wallner.

In ten years Keplers fielding average in Right Field  is .993 - Wallner in 3 years is .978, they will miss Kepler greatly.

I do believe, Kepler wanted out of Minn.

 

Wallner's a good fielder. Do you not watch the games and consider the opinions of long time, quality baseball men that affirm Wallner’s defense and arm? Kepler was a below average major league hitter, especially 2020-2024. Lifetime ~ .236 hitter. 

[Greglw3]

1 minute ago, Parfigliano said:

We're the one year Chron and Schoop were with TC off years?  Chron hit 25 HR and had a .780 OPS.  Schoop hit 23 HR with a .777 OPS.

They were integral parts of the Bomba squad and largely responsible for the 101 wins. Schoop, if you’ll recall had 2nd half injuries that cut into his statistics. I don’t understand your first sentence there.

"We're the one year Cron and Schoop were with TC off years?"

Falvey’s been brutal with the exception of 2019.

[RpR]

Just now, Greglw3 said:

 

Wallner's a good fielder. Do you not watch the games and consider the opinions of long time, quality baseball men that affirm Wallner’s defense and arm? Kepler was a below average major league hitter, especially 2020-2024. Lifetime ~ .236 hitter. 

Wallner is SLOW to get going and then turns a simple catch into a so called spectacular catch as he is slow to get to the ball.

His throwing accuracy is shotgun level, some hit the target a  lot do not.

Keplers bat is not his strongest point but in little things he outdid Wallner Sacrifice Flies -  in the past three years Kepler had 11, Wallner had 1; Total bases last year, Kepler 140, Wallner 115. Now Home runs, Wallner had 13 and Max only had 8 but as i said, Kepler will be missed greatly in the outfield and assuming Wallner is the full time Right Fielder, his weaknesses will show quickly.

[arby58]

34 minutes ago, RpR said:

Better than here comes the ball-there goes the ball Wallner.

In ten years Keplers fielding average in Right Field  is .993 - Wallner in 3 years is .978, they will miss Kepler greatly.

I do believe, Kepler wanted out of Minn.

 

Kepler had 368 ABs last year to 'accumulate' a WAR of 1.0; in  what should be a power position, he had 8 HRs. Wallner, in 220 at bats, had a WAR of 2.2 and hit 13 HRs. Wallner can improve his defense - it's pretty clear Kepler can no longer improve his offense. 

[RpR]

6 minutes ago, arby58 said:

Kepler had 368 ABs last year to 'accumulate' a WAR of 1.0; in  what should be a power position, he had 8 HRs. Wallner, in 220 at bats, had a WAR of 2.2 and hit 13 HRs. Wallner can improve his defense - it's pretty clear Kepler can no longer improve his offense. 

Wallner is 27 his fielding in the minors last year, and the year befor was bad; he is not going to get better in the majors.

[Riverbrian]

20 minutes ago, RpR said:

Better than here comes the ball-there goes the ball Wallner.

In ten years Keplers fielding average in Right Field  is .993 - Wallner in 3 years is .978, they will miss Kepler greatly.

I do believe, Kepler wanted out of Minn.

 

Fielding percentage is what you are quoting. You quote RF only... because you didn't mention Wallner is 1,000 in LF or .988 in the OF. 

Kepler's .993 literally means 7 errors every 1,000 chances. Wallner's .978 literally means 22 errors every 1,000 chances. Or 12 errors every 1,000 chances if you consider OF. The math on that is Kepler will make an error every 142 chances while Wallner will make an error every 83 Chances. 

Kepler and Wallner get a chance around every 4.1 innings. 

In other words it takes awhile for that Wallner error to occur. 

 

 

 

[old nurse]

Kepler was not traded in his walk year probably due to one of two factors. 1. No contender or pretender needed a little below RF. 2. What was offered were lottery tickets that were not worth even a ok see to see if they were developable. Bennentendi had a better pedigree than Kepler and was traded a couple of years ago at the trade deadline. KC got filler in return. Some trades are just not worth making 

[RpR]

40 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Fielding percentage is what you are quoting. You quote RF only... because you didn't mention Wallner is 1,000 in LF or .988 in the OF. 

Kepler's .993 literally means 7 errors every 1,000 chances. Wallner's .978 literally means 22 errors every 1,000 chances. Or 12 errors every 1,000 chances if you consider OF. The math on that is Kepler will make an error every 142 chances while Wallner will make an error every 83 Chances. 

Kepler and Wallner get a chance around every 4.1 innings. 

In other words it takes awhile for that Wallner error to occur. 

 

 

 

So what, Wallner is NOT a good Right Fielder., as of now he has had 138 chances in Right Field with 3 errors.

I spoke of Right Field as that is what the  GREAT majority here think he will play , plus, that is where Kepler played.

At that , Wallner was FAR better in left field, and for histories sake, Kepler was not in Center Field as he was horrible there.

[Riverbrian]

2 minutes ago, RpR said:

Kepler was not in Center Field as he was horrible there.

1,000 field%

[RpR]

6 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

1,000 field%

[Riverbrian]

1 minute ago, RpR said:

See

It's right there

Kepler - CF Fld% 1,000 - No Errors in 319 Chances. 

 

[old nurse]

4 minutes ago, RpR said:

Your stats would suggest he is a league average CF

[Riverbrian]

Just now, old nurse said:

Your stats would suggest he is a league average CF

I'll let RpR respond but 1,000 is better than .993

Kepler should have been playing CF. 

[RpR]

6 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

See

It's right there

Kepler - CF Fld% 1,000 - No Errors in 319 Chances. 

 

So what it is right there:

Minus 5, Minus 5 he was lousy in center field.

If you are saying Kepler should still be here, I AGREE.