Evaluating the Big Swings: Does the Minnesota Twins’ Front Office Have Another Offseason Surprise?

[rv78]

And while Correa’s deal remains in its early years, it has the potential to anchor the lineup if he can stay on the field.

It has more of a potential to hinder any improvement to the roster now and through the later years.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

 

 

Agreed. Pablo is not getting dealt for "prospects" unless they're super elite and MLB ready. There also has to be an SP1 caliber pitcher coming back. I've been doing my offseason plan for funsies and it's so hard to find a team who might be able to make that happen where the Twins and their trade partner benefit.

Lopez is a lot of salary, but not impossibly high. His trade value from BaseballTradeValues and analysts at various sites suggest Lopez's trade value is substantial (+37.4) at $22MM.

I think Pablo Lopez to the Diamondbacks for Zac Gallen (+19.5) at $14MM and Gabriel Moreno (+16.6) at pre-arb. Arizona gets what a lot of folks in the industry view as an ace pitcher at a far below market rate for 3 years. It's no secret AZ is interested in team controlled pitchers, especially an ace. They'd absolutely love to keep Gallen, but I don't think the Diamondbacks have the budget to sign Gallen at 7/$200MM or something like that. Lopez checks the boxes for them.

Gallen is a significantly better pitcher than Lopez, and he's cheaper next year, but the Twins will only have 1 year of control. The Twins also get a franchise catcher. Moreno is pre-arb, under team control until 2029, is a25 next year. Moreno is not only an above average hitter, but he's a solid defender behind the plate. He's expendable for the Diamondbacks because of Adrian Del Castillo. The Twins free up $7MM to use elsewhere to sign a DH like J.D. Martinez.

Both teams win, both teams keep their window open, and both teams stay in budget.

Very interesting. I'm not a big fan of BTV, but I can see the logic behind that framework from both sides. I'm a big fan of Moreno so I'd be happy with this deal. 

[shimrod]

The team is for sale. What attributes do the current ownership believe enhance the value of the team?

Do prospective owners place more value on an established lineup or low initial salary overhead? If the latter the team might be willing to add prospects to deals in order to trade high priced veterans. 

Will prospective owners pay more for a team with robust attendance or a loaded minor league system? If the former we might see a number of prospects out the door for position/pitching upgrades in an attempt to juice attendance. 

Normal offseason considerations don't apply. Sustainability is not a consideration unless ownership thinks buyers value the farm system as much as revenue and profit. 

 

[bean5302]

18 minutes ago, shimrod said:

The team is for sale. What attributes do the current ownership believe enhance the value of the team?

Do prospective owners place more value on an established lineup or low initial salary overhead? If the latter the team might be willing to add prospects to deals in order to trade high priced veterans. 

Will prospective owners pay more for a team with robust attendance or a loaded minor league system? If the former we might see a number of prospects out the door for position/pitching upgrades in an attempt to juice attendance. 

Normal offseason considerations don't apply. Sustainability is not a consideration unless ownership thinks buyers value the farm system as much as revenue and profit. 

 

Prospective owners will probably put the most value on flexibility and growth potential, but it's not like the Pohlad's can cater to a specific potential future owner since the future owners will all have different preferences. Kinda like fixing up a car you're selling. Are you adding a trailer hitch to the SUV? Some people might consider it a real plus while others wouldn't care, and some people might even view it as a negative. Steady is probably the name of the game, but if the Twins are actually going to sell, there's going to be a serious buyer identified before the offseason is over.

The Twins are almost certainly going to be a business as usual operation rather than guessing at desires from a potential owner who has yet to be identified.

[shimrod]

I would be shocked if the Twins sale exploration process did not include an evaluation of what potential changes will attract a higher bid. Just like selling a house, you have your realtor look it over and recommend cost effective actions you can take to boost value. 

In other words, no guessing. Now the recommendation may be business as usual but we're not privy to that information. Furthermore, business as usual is what has the franchise up for sale. You broke it, don't break it any more could well be the advice. 

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, shimrod said:

I would be shocked if the Twins sale exploration process did not include an evaluation of what potential changes will attract a higher bid. Just like selling a house, you have your realtor look it over and recommend cost effective actions you can take to boost value. 

In other words, no guessing. Now the recommendation may be business as usual but we're not privy to that information. Furthermore, business as usual is what has the franchise up for sale. You broke it, don't break it any more could well be the advice. 

Of course the sale process will evaluate how to maximize value. None of that will have anything to do with roster construction.

[Doctor Gast]

If we get a surprising offseason, that means another FO comes & drops a player we need for a player who isn't essential to us. Much like the MIA coming & offering Pablo Lopez. Last season there wasn't any FO that came & dropped a needed SP in Falvey's lap so Falvey had to get "creative" meaning trading away needed players for players who weren't able to help the Twins & be able to frivolously spend all the allotted money on players who were not able to help the Twins. Falvey said he needed to be "creative" at the deadline & they came up with Richards. Falvey's creativity brought the Twins from projected AL Central Champs, a postseason competitor to a 4th place in the AL Central.

When Falvey says he needs to be "creative" this offseason. That scares the **** out of me. That means disturbing the chemistry, not trading players we should, trading players we shouldn't to pay for players we  don't need & leave holes unfilled while creating new ones. Trading like Pablo Lopez for prospects doesn't makes sense to me (unless it's a high MLB-ready catching prospect) because we have a lot of redundant prospects that need to be traded w/o adding more.

[Jim wyllie]

First I think the trade for Lopez should have been Polanco and Kepler instead of arraez it most definitely would have been for the lineup.  As for a big swing this off-season I think they should move Buxton.  He played close to if not 100 games and had a strong enough season where his value may never be higher.

[Werbellik]

19 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

In a better time the Twins may look to improve the club through free agency and targeted trades.  This off season it appears to be another salary dump of sorts to maintain and not increase payroll.  With Lopez getting a 13 million salary boost in 2025 and Correa getting a boost the savings have to come from somewhere.  Plus many increases due to salary arbitration.  With three players, Correa, Buxton, and Lopez combining to make over $70 million of a $130 million budget.  Something may have to give.  I don't want them to trade Lopez but I wouldn't be shocked if they dud.

Trade Lopez. The other ain't going nowhere and we all know why.

[twinssporto]

I don't think you will see many big moves by the Minnesota Twins this offseason.

Every business owner who considers selling will always window-dress their financials to make it look more lucrative to a potential buyer. The Pohlads will certainly do this as well.

What will the Pohlads do to get the most value for their team in a potential sale? They will want to show good profits, growth, etc.  It's hard to say what type of window dressing they will do with their financials but you typically do that by growing sales, growing profit margins, decreasing expenses, or sometimes all of the above.

The Twins ownership would have to make a helluva off-season splash to get a massive increase in TV subscriptions or season ticket sales to increase revenue. In the short term, I don't see that happening. I suspect the most logical outcome will be ownership, reducing expenses to increase profit margins, not making any radical moves, and selling the team at the highest price they can get.

Translation to all of this: I'm very skeptical there will be any big off-season moves. 

 

[LambchoP]

The only free agent I'm expecting are the usual DFA or returning from injury type relievers. Guys you could usually get on the waiver wire during the season. We'll sign four or five of them to minor league deals with invites to spring and hope one of them catches on. Maybe if we trade Paddack and clear his salary we sign a legit major league reliever,but that will be it. Our first baseman will be Miranda. Our fourth OF will be Keirsey and Martin, maybe Mccusker. We'd better hope Lee, Keaschal and Eeles turn into productive players....

[AceWrigley]

Japan's best pitcher Roki Sasaki has been posted and is available to MLB teams. He's only 23 years old witch makes him an Amateur Free Agent by MLB rules and can only sign a minor league contract limited to a teams bonus pool. If I understand it correctly. I guess that means a signing in the $5 to $10 million range with another 20% going to the Chiba Lotte marines as a posting fee.

Sasaki would then be like any player "called up" to the major league roster and have the 6-year Team control window with 3 years before the arbitration process can begin.

I'm not sure what criteria Sasaki will use when choosing a team, but signing him will provide elite pitching at a minimum cost for 3 years and I think even the Twins can afford that. And if they are going to sell the team, Sasaki would provide great value as a salable asset.

Will the Twins even pursue signing him?

[Vanimal46]

30 minutes ago, AceWrigley said:

Japan's best pitcher Roki Sasaki has been posted and is available to MLB teams. He's only 23 years old witch makes him an Amateur Free Agent by MLB rules and can only sign a minor league contract limited to a teams bonus pool. If I understand it correctly. I guess that means a signing in the $5 to $10 million range with another 20% going to the Chiba Lotte marines as a posting fee.

Sasaki would then be like any player "called up" to the major league roster and have the 6-year Team control window with 3 years before the arbitration process can begin.

I'm not sure what criteria Sasaki will use when choosing a team, but signing him will provide elite pitching at a minimum cost for 3 years and I think even the Twins can afford that. And if they are going to sell the team, Sasaki would provide great value as a salable asset.

Will the Twins even pursue signing him?

It’s as close to 0% as mathematically possible Sasaki signs with the Twins. 

[TopGunn#22]

I think the Twins strength is for 2025 and beyond is SP.  Lopez, Ryan and Ober (and possibly Jax) provide a solid base.  SWR, Festa and Matthews will be contributors as well.  I'm not really in favor of trading any of Lopez, Ryan or Ober, but the trade bean proposed with the D-Backs, Lopez for Zac Gallen and Gabriel Moreno certainly works for me.  We get an excellent SP back for Lopez and we add our starting catcher for the next 10 years.

The question would be, why would the D-Backs do this?  The trade is fair by BBTV's standards but Arizona would have to be really high on Lopez to give up Gallen and Moreno.

But it's a great starting point in conversations.  Lopez, Correa and Buxton are unlikely to be traded but it's a possibility.  Correa's contract may be too big to move.  Lopez is a very tradable piece and would bring a large return.  But unless it's a Gallen and Moreno type trade, I'm probably not interested.

That brings me to Buxton.  He's making $15-million per season.  That is no problem for a team like the Dodgers or Yankees to add.  Philadelphia could probably make it work as well.  I'd bet Boston or Atlanta could, but both of them have good options in CF already.  Buxton's value has improved on the heels of his 2nd ever 100 games played season.  He's also entering this off season healthy, which is a big plus.

I think his value is NOT negative and he could bring some real talent back.  The question for the Twins is this:  Buxton could have a BIG season next year if he can remain healthy.  How likely is that?  Probably not overwhelmingly likely, but he's not rehabbing anything major this off season.  He's a fan favorite.  How would the fan base react to a trade?  To get the salary relief the Twins would need in a Buxton trade the talent coming back would need to be young and relatively unproven.  Minimum salary guys ready to make the jump to the major leagues or young players with a season or two under their belt.

Would fans accept that kind of risk?  The kinds of guys the Braves or Phillies could send us for Buxton are LH hitters.  Kelenic and Marsh.  The Braves are not including Michael Harris in a Buxton trade.  Maybe the Phil's would include Rojas.  What else would the Phillies have that would interest the Twins? 

I think it's certainly possible one of the "Big Three" get traded but I don't think they will.  Attaching a prospect to a Paddack deal will be necessary.  Possibly attaching a prospect to a Vazquez deal with Miami to get an Alcantara or Luzardo is a trade that MUST be looked at.  And with Farmer, Kepler and others no longer on the roster that is also some salary relief.

I'm not in favor of signing Santana (39 years old) or Goldschmidt (37 years old).  There is no future with either.  We didn't resign Michael Taylor and he flopped with the Pirates.  I take the "win" of what Santana did in 2024 and let him walk for 2025.  There was a lot of wailing and gnashing of teeth over the Polanco trade.  He was HORRIBLE for the Mariners.  Know when to cut bait.   

[AceWrigley]

24 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

It’s as close to 0% as mathematically possible Sasaki signs with the Twins. 

And that's probably the high end.

[LastOnePicked]

On 11/8/2024 at 9:38 AM, Fire Dan Gladden said:

So sitting on their hands is not really an option.

I'll bet they see it as an option. In fact, it's probably the most likely option. A fire sale is probably the second most likely option.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

14 hours ago, LastOnePicked said:

I'll bet they see it as an option. In fact, it's probably the most likely option. A fire sale is probably the second most likely option.

Unfortunately this comment is spot on... 

[tony&rodney]

One would think that a failure to complete some significant upgrades to the roster that improve the Twins ability to compete in 2025 results in the end of the Falvey era. If a team cannot improve when it has a decent organization in a window of winning, then that portends a fall relative to other teams. The biggest surprise of the offseason would be if the Twins did not make a few major deals. Falvey is on the clock and next season is his last in MLB if the team repeats 2024 or declines further.

[Brandon]

On 11/8/2024 at 8:19 AM, Parfigliano said:

Signing 37 YOA Goldschmidt would be stupid on steroids.

If the Twins somehow trade Correa, I could see the Twins signing Goldschmidt to give the team a name player.  1 year 20 million is cheaper than 37 million with 3 more guaranteed years at over 30 million.

[Doctor Wu]

On 11/8/2024 at 10:46 PM, JD-TWINS said:

I honestly like adding Paddack & Varland along with Topa and Stewart back to the Pen. I don’t see getting any value back in a trade of Paddack. A straight salary dump, when he could throw 70 solid innings out of the Pen, doesn’t seem wise.

Gotta agree with that idea. Paddack still has some value to the Twins, much more, I think, than we could get back in return with a trade. 

[Doctor Wu]

On 11/9/2024 at 10:14 PM, LambchoP said:

The only free agent I'm expecting are the usual DFA or returning from injury type relievers. Guys you could usually get on the waiver wire during the season. We'll sign four or five of them to minor league deals with invites to spring and hope one of them catches on. Maybe if we trade Paddack and clear his salary we sign a legit major league reliever,but that will be it. Our first baseman will be Miranda. Our fourth OF will be Keirsey and Martin, maybe Mccusker. We'd better hope Lee, Keaschal and Eeles turn into productive players....

I can't remember an off-season when I felt so thoroughly depressed and feeling negative about the Twins. I don't expect any impactful free agent signings, nor do I foresee any sort of trade that will help the team or excite the fans. Hey, I hope the front office proves me wrong, but I just can't get excited about what will, or will not, happen during the next 3 months.