Carlos Correa, Brooks Lee, and the Twins’ Defensive Future

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, umterp23 said:

I would think if Correa wants out and a trade is possible, he may be willing to restructure his contract to new said buyer.  Do we believe in Lee enough to move off $30+ MM a year in budget help?  I ask question in jest as I believe ownership wouldn't use the savings the way we would want them to.  

I expect ownership would say "We can finish in 4th place without paying Correa".

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

I think there is a possibility that Correa requests a trade this off season and the Twins accommodate him. The Giants (for example) would be happy to take the next 4 years of Correa's contract.

I realize the last month has helped morale anywhere under the Twins Nation - fans, Mgmt, nor players are feeling great.

That said, I think the future of playing with a competent Buxton, along with Lewis/Wallner/Larnach/Jeffers/Lee ………Ryan back with Lopez & Ober plus about 4 other young starters………a Pen that will start the Spring with 14-15 options with refreshed health……..will make things intriguing for a guy that places emphasis on winning! Also, his $37.5M salary in ‘25 (& ongoing) would really limit the takers on the other end of a trade…..so that needs to be weighed of one wants to be “on a winner”.

[bean5302]

Here are the Twins' optional SS's this year by physical skill sets. Throwing speed and sprint speed, ranked in probable order of potential based on physical abilities alone.
Most important, arm.
Second most important, acceleration (not exactly sprint speed, but close)
MLB Median 84.0mph, 28.0 ft/sec
CC = 88.8mph, 26.9 ft/sec
WC = 86.7mph, 27.9 ft/sec
RL = 84.0mph, 26.4 ft/sec**
AM = 83.6mph*, 28.2 ft/sec
KF = 81.3mph, 26.0 ft/sec
BL = 81.2mph, 25.7 ft/sec
*Extrapolated Austin Martin's arm from Willi Castro's OF arm vs. his SS arm.
**Lewis' destroyed quad has clearly cost him speed this year. He's normally close to Martin in speed.

Brooks Lee has, literally, the worst physical skill set among them. His ceiling, if he fields the ball almost perfectly, is adequate. A great shortstop is going to need consistent playing time at the position to keep their feel for the game. Where runners are. Where the ball needs to go. What base to cover. Can a base runner be thrown out. Without repetition, none of that is going to be instinctual, and fractions of a second make the difference between outs and hits.

[bean5302]

Correa is not going to request a trade. He's happy here. He's also going to have to approve a trade, which
1. Won't be easy to find a fit.
2. Won't be easy to find a partner Correa would prefer.

Pablo Lopez is where the Twins get a lot of budget room. He doesn't have a NTC, he's expensive, and the Twins can obtain a replacement from dealing prospects.

[Fatbat]

17 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Correa is not going to request a trade. He's happy here. He's also going to have to approve a trade, which
1. Won't be easy to find a fit.
2. Won't be easy to find a partner Correa would prefer.

Pablo Lopez is where the Twins get a lot of budget room. He doesn't have a NTC, he's expensive, and the Twins can obtain a replacement from dealing prospects.

The Pohlads need to either spend $$ to field a championship team or sell it to someone who will.  Pablo will retire as a Twin. Hopefully in 8-10 yrs from now and be a member of the Twins wall of fame. 

[Riverbrian]

42 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

My favorite plays are watching C4 throw the baseball, Buck run the bases, Wallner hit massive home runs, Vazquez's defense behind the plate and pick offs, Santana's scoops at 1B, Pablo's dogged determination, Ober's stares at the batters, Duran's 102 mph pitches and Jax's SO pitches. Also, I enjoy Corey's excitement, Audra's interesting interviews and Justin's astute observations. 

I agree. 

I could watch Correa play SS all day long. Hit it the ball his way... Out will be made. His arm strength is pretty special. That's why... I'm not even thinking about moving him anywhere. 

Wallner and Lewis have become the must watch AB's for me. Can't really say that about anybody else. Even with the lengthy Lewis slump... I'm not going to the fridge when he's up. I know that Lewis has a specialness that will be evident again when his timing returns.  

I'll add Wallner's Arm to your list. Every time the ball hits that RF wall... I'm wondering if the runner is going for two. Normally a ball striking a wall means extra bases so this isn't something that I would typically wonder about until Wallner showed up. Wallner has taught me not to take that double for granted. 

I really appreciate Santana's play at 1B. Not just the scoops... I think a lot of 1B across the league can make those scoops. It's the scoops plus the 38 year old guy diving to snare a hot shot and the very smooth underhand flip to the pitcher that I've seen quite a few times from Santana. His defense has been first rate. 

I'm fan of Byron across the board. The baserunning, the defense and the ability to hit the ball 450 feet. Although I would trade distance on some of those homers for a better OBP.  

Duran's heater is eye popping and same with Jax when he combines it with that slider. 

Lopez and Ober... it's the changeup for both of them that I like watching. Joe Ryan I like watching because for the life of me... I don't know how he does it but... he does it. 

GO TWINS!!! 

[bean5302]

8 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

The Pohlads need to either spend $$ to field a championship team or sell it to someone who will.  Pablo will retire as a Twin. Hopefully in 8-10 yrs from now and be a member of the Twins wall of fame. 

They spent enough last offseason. Falvey squandered it.

[Mike Sixel]

I mean, CC is the SS next year, until he's hurt, when Lee / Castro sub for him. Is this even really in doubt (other than the TINY, TINY, chance they deal him)?

[NYCTK]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Here are the Twins' optional SS's this year by physical skill sets. Throwing speed and sprint speed, ranked in probable order of potential based on physical abilities alone.
Most important, arm.
Second most important, acceleration (not exactly sprint speed, but close)
Median 84.0mph, 28.0 ft/sec
CC = 88.8mph, 26.9 ft/sec
WC = 86.7mph, 27.9 ft/sec
RL = 84.0mph, 26.4 ft/sec**
AM = 83.6mph*, 28.2 ft/sec
KF = 81.3mph, 26.0 ft/sec
BL = 81.2mph, 25.7 ft/sec
*Extrapolated Austin Martin's arm from Willi Castro's OF arm vs. his SS arm.
**Lewis' destroyed quad has clearly cost him speed this year. He's normally close to Martin in speed.

Brooks Lee has, literally, the worst physical skill set among them. His ceiling, if he fields the ball almost perfectly, is adequate. A great shortstop is going to need consistent playing time at the position to keep their feel for the game. Where runners are. Where the ball needs to go. What base to cover. Can a base runner be thrown out. Without repetition, none of that is going to be instinctual, and fractions of a second make the difference between outs and hits.

This is really sad, and has me even more down on Lee now. 

He should start in AAA. 

1 hour ago, Fatbat said:

The Pohlads need to either spend $$ to field a championship team or sell it to someone who will.  Pablo will retire as a Twin. Hopefully in 8-10 yrs from now and be a member of the Twins wall of fame. 

If Pablo retires as a Twin, I'm betting it's because he had a career ending injury.

Someone else said it, but when the Twins said they want to emulate the Rays, we should take that to mean we can expect the Twins to have Pablo on the market THIS offseason. His pay is tripling and the Pohlads don't want to see anything under 25 mil in net income on their asset. 

[Mike Sixel]

4 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

This is really sad, and has me even more down on Lee now. 

He should start in AAA. 

If Pablo retires as a Twin, I'm betting it's because he had a career ending injury.

Someone else said it, but when the Twins said they want to emulate the Rays, we should take that to mean we can expect the Twins to have Pablo on the market THIS offseason. His pay is tripling and the Pohlads don't want to see anything under 25 mil in net income on their asset. 

Twins aren't emulating the Rays, though. They have refused to deal Kepler two straight years, which is what the Rays would have done. 100%. I don't see any evidence they are like the Rays at this point. 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Pablo Lopez is where the Twins get a lot of budget room. He doesn't have a NTC, he's expensive, and the Twins can obtain a replacement from dealing prospects.

He's a bargain. He's a top of the rotation pitcher at a price that is half of what other top of the rotation pitchers are commanding. 3 years, $64M is an absolute steal for a top of the rotation pitcher.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

I agree. 

I could watch Correa play SS all day long. Hit it the ball his way... Out will be made. His arm strength is pretty special. That's why... I'm not even thinking about moving him anywhere. 

Wallner and Lewis have become the must watch AB's for me. Can't really say that about anybody else. Even with the lengthy Lewis slump... I'm not going to the fridge when he's up. I know that Lewis has a specialness that will be evident again when his timing returns.  

I'll add Wallner's Arm to your list. Every time the ball hits that RF wall... I'm wondering if the runner is going for two. Normally a ball striking a wall means extra bases so this isn't something that I would typically wonder about until Wallner showed up. Wallner has taught me not to take that double for granted. 

I really appreciate Santana's play at 1B. Not just the scoops... I think a lot of 1B across the league can make those scoops. It's the scoops plus the 38 year old guy diving to snare a hot shot and the very smooth underhand flip to the pitcher that I've seen quite a few times from Santana. His defense has been first rate. 

I'm fan of Byron across the board. The baserunning, the defense and the ability to hit the ball 450 feet. Although I would trade distance on some of those homers for a better OBP.  

Duran's heater is eye popping and same with Jax when he combines it with that slider. 

Lopez and Ober... it's the changeup for both of them that I like watching. Joe Ryan I like watching because for the life of me... I don't know how he does it but... he does it. 

GO TWINS!!! 

I forgot Wallner's arm, Lewis's bat and Ryan's uniquely released fastball.  Thanks for mentioning these additional attractions. I'll add one more, Willie Castro jumping up and jogging to 1B after being hit by a pitch. 

[ashbury]

The article doesn't provide any real explanation why a different defensive position would be easier on the specific symptom that has sidelined Correa.

It's true that aging players get moved "down" the defensive spectrum, but that is almost always due to diminished skill with age, not (to my recollection) to avoid trips to the IL.

Even the extreme move to DH isn't a panacea. We all saw the results of trying to keep Byron Buxton in the batting lineup, last year. If a guy's hurt, he's hurt.  You have to make athletic moves at the plate and on the bases, too.  The heel of the foot being subjected to torsion can happen in many other ways than going all out for a grounder; anyone with plantar fasciitis can attest to that.

No, if I'm the manager, I continue to ride Correa at SS until the man tells me he wants a different position, or shows me through his performance that he can't handle the position anymore.

[Otaknam]

7 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

There is no doubt a position change is in Correa's future at some time during his contract.  But I think he's our SS next season for sure.  He still makes plays few SS's can make.  Brooks Lee is the obvious           heir-apparent at short, but he will probably be playing 2B next year and SS on days Correa DH's.  

In 2 or 3 years, when a change seems more possible, why not a move to 2B??  One thing Correa has that Ernie Banks didn't is an absolute cannon for an arm.  I'd like to see Correa making the throw from 2B on a double play.  First baseman DO need to make throws on relays, but it seems less and less nowadays.  Correa as a 2B would still be involved in a lot of relay throws.  

Who knows?  Maybe Danny Andrade has a big year next year and barges into the "SS of the Future" discussion, allowing Lee to stay at 2B or move to 3B.  Culpepper may continue to shine and advance more quickly than we anticipate.  He's already turning heads.  Next year for sure, Correa is the primary SS.  Possibly even in 2026.  But 2 years from now, with the way the Twins draft SS's we may have an excellent replacement ready to roll.  

Wondering where you got your information that Culpepper is turning heads. It sure isn’t at the plate, where he barely hit .220 in A+, though it wasn’t very many games. Hoping he is legit ML shortstop with a strong hit tool.

[DocBauer]

I just don't understand the OP at all. Correa's plantar issues arose ONLY in 2023. I'm not aware of any other issues before then. Please correct me if I'm wrong. Then he was fine this season before the OTHER FOOT suddenly had issues. Despite his big $ contract with Nike, he has switched to a different shoe provider as somehow Nike has been unable to provide him a new shoe that feels comfortable. While it's always possible this could be an ongoing issue for Correa, it's also very possible he never suffers from it again with cleats that work better for his feet. (Been there, done that).

Defensively, he's still an outstanding SS. Why would the Twins move him? And even if they did, it would have little to zero affect on additional issues of his plantar. 

If we want to debate the INF, then speculate where everyone should play if/when Lee is healthy and he's hitting like expected. THEN we have an INF discussion!

Even if Lewis is good at 3B and gets his strong arm back to throwing strikes to 1B, could Lee just be a better 3B? If that's the case, then maybe Lewis moves. But what if Keaschall, for example, looks really good at 2B and his bat/speed continue to play up? Then maybe Lewis moves to 1B?

All interesting things to consider of the next season or two with Lee, Keaschall, Julien, Culepper, and maybe even Eeles all part of the discussion. (Notice no 1B listed there). But until the day comes where Correa's defense actually slips beyond excellent/very good/good to average/below average, he's the #1 SS.

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, DocBauer said:

Even if Lewis is good at 3B and gets his strong arm back to throwing strikes to 1B, could Lee just be a better 3B? If that's the case, then maybe Lewis moves. But what if Keaschall, for example, looks really good at 2B and his bat/speed continue to play up? Then maybe Lewis moves to 1B?

Then you still look for a first baseman who can play. And then you look at your roster and be thankful that you have Correa, Lee, Lewis and Keaschall to cover the rest of the infield. 

[Fatbat]

4 hours ago, NYCTK said:

If Pablo retires as a Twin, I'm betting it's because he had a career ending injury.

Someone else said it, but when the Twins said they want to emulate the Rays, we should take that to mean we can expect the Twins to have Pablo on the market THIS offseason. His pay is tripling and the Pohlads don't want to see anything under 25 mil in net income on their asset. 

We don’t have near the pitching development that Tampa has. We never have enough of it and Pablo is not expensive. His contract is fairly priced. 
the Pohlads will get plenty of bargain out of the 3 rookies over the next 3-4 years and hopefully 3 -5 more youngsters over the next 2 years develop into solid mlb options. 

[P Meyer]

I don't see the plan wouldn't be Lee at 2B, Correa at SS and Lewis at 3B for next year. Maybe I am off with Lee and Lewis but it makes sense to do that for a year as much as you can.

 

The issue with the Twins (and most teams) is the health of their expensive players. If they play to expectation and play a lot of games, the season will go well. If not, well, we are seeing it.

[bean5302]

6 hours ago, DJL44 said:

He's a bargain. He's a top of the rotation pitcher at a price that is half of what other top of the rotation pitchers are commanding. 3 years, $64M is an absolute steal for a top of the rotation pitcher.

None of that is relevant. If the Twins need payroll space, Lopez is the easiest way to get it. He doesn't have an NTC, and he's expensive. #2 starters are tough to come by, but certainly not impossible. Those are just facts. Buxton has zero trade value without eating some of his contract and he has an NTC. Correa probably has zero trade value without eating some of his contract and he has an NTC. There aren't any other big salary players on the Twins slated for next year.

I don't think the Twins are probably going to trade him, but even if they did, his FMV is probably $25MM/yr. Baseballtradevalues had Lopez as a surplus value of 43 in June. Similar to Emmanuel Rodriguez-ish or so.
 

[DocBauer]

2 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

Then you still look for a first baseman who can play. And then you look at your roster and be thankful that you have Correa, Lee, Lewis and Keaschall to cover the rest of the infield. 

I know you can move someone to 1B. Moreau moved there, Arraez moved there, even Sano moved there. As a matter of fact, elder statesman Santana moved there. But it's kind of weird we don't have much at 1B in the minors isn't it?

[Riverbrian]

22 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

I know you can move someone to 1B. Moreau moved there, Arraez moved there, even Sano moved there. As a matter of fact, elder statesman Santana moved there. But it's kind of weird we don't have much at 1B in the minors isn't it?

Especially with what has been a draft focus on power. 

[Rosterman]

The Twins need to figure out a 1st abseman for 2025. Is it Miranda, or does he stay at 3rd. Julien or Kirilloff will again be in the mix, for a year. Unless they spring for a heavy bat.

I could see Brooks Lee being back in St. Paul to begin the year. A trip to St. paul might've helped him this season.

But, yes, where will Correa play in 2025 and beyond will also be the question.

I get a little tired, personally, of guys playing multiple positions. You find your best and work them there and have them play as a unit to get the outs on the field. It was a joy seeing Santana at first. A regular taget for throws and the ability to make plays.

[RpR]

19 hours ago, P Meyer said:

I don't see the plan wouldn't be Lee at 2B, Correa at SS and Lewis at 3B for next year. Maybe I am off with Lee and Lewis but it makes sense to do that for a year as much as you can.

 

The issue with the Twins (and most teams) is the health of their expensive players. If they play to expectation and play a lot of games, the season will go well. If not, well, we are seeing it.

The issue with the Twins is Lee and Lewis are lousy fielders.

A team that fails at small ball, cannot afford poor fielding.

[JD-TWINS]

On 9/20/2024 at 1:57 PM, NYCTK said:

This is really sad, and has me even more down on Lee now. 

He should start in AAA. 

If Pablo retires as a Twin, I'm betting it's because he had a career ending injury.

Someone else said it, but when the Twins said they want to emulate the Rays, we should take that to mean we can expect the Twins to have Pablo on the market THIS offseason. His pay is tripling and the Pohlads don't want to see anything under 25 mil in net income on their asset. 

If they trade Lopez after this year, the fan base as well as the guys in the Clubhouse will shutdown……..if he gives up 6 runs in a playoff start, maybe there’s no hit out out in Falvey? Otherwise, he’d need to keep his head down, IMO.

[JD-TWINS]

23 minutes ago, RpR said:

The issue with the Twins is Lee and Lewis are lousy fielders.

A team that fails at small ball, cannot afford poor fielding.

I think Lee could be a pretty solid 2nd baseman. He’s pretty intuitive with his movements………he’s easily a younger version of Farmer……..maybe OK at 3B? He doesn’t look like a competent SS though….able to make some flashy plays but not a day in day out great fielder.

[Linus]

C4 is the only player we have that can play a good SS in the big leagues. Lewis cannot and Lee is not a good big league SS over the long run (I do think he will be excellent at second or third but he still has to prove he can hit).  They need to figure out the best positions for Lewis and Lee and leave them there. This is how they will become the best they can be in the field. 

[JD-TWINS]

3 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

You don't remove that golden arm from SS until you absolutely have to.  As others have stated, any other position would not eliminate the foot issue.

All other SS's in the system would be a downgrade from CC4.

Unless of course you want to bring up the defensive wizard Noah Miller... oh, wait!

Miller is hitting .251 with a .668 OPS in high A ball btw.

[NYCTK]

5 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

If they trade Lopez after this year, the fan base as well as the guys in the Clubhouse will shutdown……..if he gives up 6 runs in a playoff start, maybe there’s no hit out out in Falvey? Otherwise, he’d need to keep his head down, IMO.

The fanbase is already out. So there's no real risk of further alienation. And the team...do they seem locked in? 

I'm not saying they should or definitely will. I also don't know that they're gonna try. But they're the ones stressing about payroll and they're the ones that said they're trying to emulate the Rays. 

[JD-TWINS]

3 minutes ago, Linus said:

C4 is the only player we have that can play a good SS in the big leagues. Lewis cannot and Lee is not a good big league SS over the long run (I do think he will be excellent at second or third but he still has to prove he can hit).  They need to figure out the best positions for Lewis and Lee and leave them there. This is how they will become the best they can be in the field. 

………and, most importantly, Lee has to prove he can hit!

[NYCTK]

1 minute ago, JD-TWINS said:

Miller is hitting .251 with a .668 OPS in high A ball btw.

People complaining about trading Miller was hilarious. If you're worried about that, you're never ever gonna wanna trade an actual prospect. 

Now, am I happy with Margot? Obviously not, I wanted him DFAd in spring training.