Week in Review: Sliding Amid Setbacks and Sloppiness

[Nick Nelson]

With the statuses of Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton still in limbo, the Twins dropped back-to-back series in a week headlined by costly mistakes, miscues and meltdowns. Minnesota is losing ground in the Central at a time they need to be gaining it. Is this team running out of gas?

Image courtesy of Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 8/19 through Sun, 8/25
***
Record Last Week: 2-4 (Overall: 72-58)
Run Differential Last Week: +3 (Overall: +73)
Standing: T-2nd Place in AL Central (3.0 GB) 

Game 125 | SD 5, MIN 3: Zebby Runs Into Trouble in Second MLB Start
Game 126 | SD 7, MIN 5: Bullpen and Baserunning Blunders Abound
Game 127 | MIN 11, SD 4: Twins Rebound Resoundingly to Avoid Sweep
Game 128 | STL 6, MIN 1: Pitchers Can't Find Zone, Bats Can't Find Pulse
Game 129 | MIN 6, STL 0: Power Hitting and Pablo's Pitching Pave the Way
Game 130 | STL 3, MIN 2: Julien's Ninth-Inning Error Costs Twins the Game

IF YOU'D RATHER LISTEN TO THE WEEK IN REVIEW THAN READ IT, YOU CAN NOW FIND IT IN PODCAST FORM. GET THE LATEST EPISODE HERE. ALSO AVAILABLE ON APPLE AND SPOTIFY.

NEWS & NOTES

The Twins remain in a holding pattern with their two best players, as Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton remain sidelined with no clear timelines for return. Buxton was eligible to return from the 10-day injured list on Friday but was not activated over the weekend. He shared with reporters that his hip is still bothering him when he runs, which is the final hurdle he feels he needs to clear. Buxton hopes to avoid a rehab stint, but the longer he's out of action, the less feasible that becomes.

 

More ominously, the Twins had little in the way of an update on Correa, who still seems to be at the mercy of a heel injury that refuses to, well, heal. The latest on the All-Star shortstop is that he's "moving around OK" six weeks into his latest plantar fasciitis ordeal, but he apparently hasn't yet progressed to running in cleats or sprinting daily. Correa revealed over the weekend that he had a "minor setback" a couple weeks ago, but didn't elaborate. He said he still expects to return this season but that no longer feels like anything close to a guarantee. 

The Twins are rightfully playing things safe with both Buxton and Correa, recognizing that the long game matters most, but these nebulous injuries are putting the team in a tough position, and the effects are starting to be felt more in terms of on-field results.

In happier news, Brooks Lee is officially on the comeback trail, and his return could do much to fill the Correa-sized void in the infield. Lee started a rehab assignment with the Saints on Saturday night, batting second and playing DH. He homered in his first at-bat. On Sunday he made the start at second base and notched three hits including a pair of doubles. He's likely to rejoin the Twins on the current home stand, maybe as soon as Monday.

 

Alex Kirilloff also started a rehab stint in Triple-A over the weekend, but his didn't go so well. After playing just one game for St. Paul on Friday, Kirilloff experienced a flare-up of the back issue that's had him on the shelf for nearly half the season. He's been shut down again, and this may spell the end of Kirilloff's season. 

After a mediocre first half, Steven Okert became downright unusable following the All-Star break, with a 9.82 ERA and 6-to-5 K/BB ratio. His spiral into oblivion left the Twins with little choice but to move on, and they did so on Saturday, designating the left-hander for assignment and replacing him on the roster with Scott Blewett, who himself had been DFA'ed earlier this month. 

We can now firmly describe the offseason trade that brought Okert to Minnesota in exchange for Nick Gordon, who was also DFA'ed earlier this month by the Marlins, as a lose-lose.

HIGHLIGHTS

Trevor Larnach is locked in right now, coming off one of his best weeks of the season. He notched four hits in Wednesday's blowout win against San Diego and then homered twice off Sonny Gray in Saturday's victory over the Cards. Larnach has six extra-base hits and seven RBIs over his past eight games. This outstanding production is justifying his premium placements in Rocco Baldelli's lineups, while also helping counterbalance the ongoing absences of Correa and Buxton.

 

Refusing to slow down, Matt Wallner keeps on bringing the thump alongside Larnach, and his power was on full display in a 5-for-16 week that included two homers, two doubles and five RBIs. Notably, Wallner struck out only four times in 20 plate appearances. He's got his strikeout rate under 30% in the month of August, which is a really promising sign. Right now Wallner is simply one of the best hitters in baseball, making it sort of wild in retrospect that he had to spend almost half the season down in Triple-A.

 

On Saturday night, Pablo López spun seven shutout innings against St. Louis, striking out nine with just one walk. Baldelli deemed López's stuff in the outing as "probably the best he's had all year" after watching the starter shred through Cardinals hitters, repeatedly bearing down and making big pitches in key spots. 

López has completed seven innings in three of seven starts since the All-Star break and has a 2.25 ERA in that span. This is who the Twins need him to be.

 

Simeon Woods Richardson, meanwhile, has been everything the Twins could have asked for and more. He delivered another strong performance on Wednesday, helping the team salvage a win in San Diego with five innings of one-run ball. The right-hander struck out seven and lowered his ERA to 3.69 as the Twins improved to 15-7 in his starts. 

What's most encouraging about Woods Richardson is that, as he ventures into unprecedented workload territory, he only seems to be getting stronger. His velocity has progressively increased over the course of the season; SWR's fastball was averaging 92.8 MPH in April compared to 93.7 in August, and in Wednesday's start he was touching 97 as he approached 100 pitches.

Defying and greatly exceeding expectations, Woods Richardson's consistently strong play raises the question: Is he a playoff starter?

LOWLIGHTS

Sloppy, sloppy baseball ruled the day for a Twins team that has coughed up late leads in three of their past eight games, turning much-needed victories into losses with botched execution in the most costly of circumstances. 

Edouard Julien was on his way to a positive evaluation last week as he started to find some semblance of life at the plate, but he erased all good vibes with a brutal ninth-inning error on Sunday that ended up costing his team the game. Earlier in the week, the Twins ran into several outs on the base paths in a two-run loss to San Diego. These are simply not the kinds of blunders that a team in such a tight race as this one can keep making over and over again. Down several of their best players, the Twins don't have the margin for error to withstand it.

 

Beyond the general sloppiness, the biggest area of concern for the Twins has got to be the bullpen, which does not appear equipped for the burden it needs to bear.

Okert went out on a very sour note, rapidly coughing up four runs to blow a lead in Tuesday's loss to San Diego and then contributing to an erratic mess of a performance from the pitching staff on Friday, which featured nine walks including one from Okert. Trevor Richards also took part in that clunker, issuing three walks while throwing just 23 of 44 pitches for strikes. 

Richards been an ineffective, inexplicable deadline acquisition. He's given Baldelli no reason to trust him, and clearly the manager doesn't, using him only in deficit spots of late. Honestly Richards would probably be following Okert (and Jay Jackson, and Josh Staumont...) out the door, if the team had any remaining depth with which to oust him. But they're running dry. That's plain enough to see in the re-addition of Blewett who – while offering some intrigue – was himself DFA'ed by the Twins earlier this month and went unclaimed on waivers. The front office is to the point of grasping for straws at an absolutely critical point of the season.

As the Twins juggle the bottom of their bullpen, they're also starting to look shakier at the top with Jorge Alcalá in a major rut. After completely bombing in last Sunday's appearance against Texas, Alcalá was mostly given a break this past week, but his lone appearance was another worrisome one. The righty threw just 12 of 25 pitches for strikes against St. Louis on Friday, issuing two walks and giving up his fifth home run in the month of August. (He'd given up just one all year previous.)

 

The Twins can ill afford to have Alcalá continue down this path. They are already short on high-leverage arms they can remotely count on. Hopefully this restful week, following a stretch of extensive usage, can help the hard-throwing righty get back on track. 

This team will need to find quality innings wherever they can to get through the final five weeks and accomplish their mission. The rookies in their rotation are flashing plenty of upside, but none of them – Woods Richardson, Zebby Matthews, nor David Festa – pitched past the fifth inning in their four combined starts last week. That's going to likely be the norm: These guys are being managed carefully, in terms of pitch counts and repetitions through the lineup, for better or worse. 

A situation like Tuesday, where Okert was used with a two-run lead in the eighth, was in some ways the byproduct of how hard guys like Alcalá, Jhoan Durán and Griffin Jax have been pushed already. Preventing them from burning out is paramount. At the same time, though, Baldelli has little choice but to turn to his few best arms in close games, given the lack of reliable options at his disposal, and the stakes in the standings. 

Now, as we start a new week, the Twins find themselves heading into another series where both Durán and Jax are likely down for the first game, having both pitched back-to-backs on Saturday and Sunday. 

It's a conundrum. And the only thing that will solve it is more pitchers stepping up. Or getting healthy.

TRENDING STORYLINE

Chris Paddack is lined up for an MRI on Tuesday, which should provide some clarity on the state of his elbow and his outlook for the rest of the season. As I wrote last weekend, the fact that Paddack's scan was being scheduled so far out didn't seem to suggest that the team is expecting things to move very quickly. 

I'm skeptical he's going to be able to ramp up and make an impact before year's end, at least not as a starter. But if he could follow a similar program to last year – a couple of relief appearances in late September setting up a postseason bullpen role – that would be useful. Paddack threw some good innings in the playoffs last year. This beleaguered Twins staff will take whatever help it can get.

We should find out soon enough whether we can realistically hope for Paddack to provide it.

LOOKING AHEAD

There's more tough sledding ahead for the Twins, who will welcome a very good Braves team to Target Field followed by the Blue Jays, who've been disappointing in the rough-and-tumble AL East but are still a threat. There are some interesting pitching matchups on the docket. In successive games, the Twins will face two starters in Chris Sale and Kevin Gausman who they've sort of famously enjoyed odd levels of success against. In the Toronto series, we'll also get a look at old friend José Berríos, who's been merely OK for the Jays this year.

MONDAY, AUG 26: BRAVES @ TWINS – LHP Max Fried v. RHP Bailey Ober
TUESDAY, AUG 27: BRAVES @ TWINS – RHP Spencer Schwellenbach v. RHP Simeon Woods Richardson
WEDNESDAY, AUG 28: BRAVES @ TWINS – LHP Chris Sale v. RHP David Festa
FRIDAY, AUG 30: BLUE JAYS @ TWINS – RHP Kevin Gausman v. RHP Pablo Lopez
SATURDAY AUG 31: BLUE JAYS @ TWINS – RHP Jose Berrios v. RHP Zebby Matthews
SUNDAY, SEPT 1: BLUE JAYS @ TWINS – RHP Yariel Rodriguez v. RHP Bailey Ober

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[thelanges5]

We all better hope they aren’t running out of gas. There are only three off days the rest of the way.

[Linus]

They just have to play cleaner baseball. It seems like they give away a game per week with sloppy play. And it’s not a new thing - it’s been that way for a couple years now. IF they make the playoffs you cannot give away a game in a playoff series due to sloppy play or you will be out. 

[Danchat]

Quote

This team will need to find quality innings wherever they can to get through the final five weeks and accomplish their mission. The rookies in their rotation are flashing plenty of upside, but none of them – Woods Richardson, Zebby Matthews, nor David Festa – pitched past the fifth inning in their four combined starts last week. That's going to likely be the norm: These guys are being managed carefully, in terms of pitch counts and repetitions through the lineup, for better or worse. 

Yup, this summarizes my concern. The young arms are promising but it's hard to rely on them for enough innings, and the bullpen does not have the horses to cover this many innings. Joe Ryan going down and the total failure of adding relievers in the offseason + deadline are the biggest factors.

[killebrewlover]

In my opinion, Coach Baldelli has to accept much (a majority?) of the blame for the sloppiness aspect.  It's okay to play loose and have fun.  But the Twins are an error prone team.   Is it more practice?  More disciplining?  Do they need a motivational speaker who lives in a van down by the river?  I don't know.  But it's Rocco's job to figure that out.  Or can him in the off season.  It's that simple.

[ashbury]

Has Eduoard Julien been taking throwing lessons from Jorge Polanco?  That video in this article sure makes it look that way.

[Linus]

31 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Has Eduoard Julien been taking throwing lessons from Jorge Polanco?  That video in this article sure makes it look that way.

I was thinking about that. Neither believes in their throwing arm and it shows especially when things get tight. 

[USAFChief]

The pen is critically short of good options, concur.

So maybe don't run Jax out there Saturday up 5-0 in the 8th, and Duran up 6-0 in the 9th.

Just a thought, Rocco. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Quote

Byron Buxton on staying patient: "They reiterate that to me. Don't try to do anything crazy. We are where we are in the season and there's no place I'd rather be than playing. But it's also not trying to go out there too quick and have another setback."

Did they reiterate to Correa not to do anything crazy?

After spending a couple weeks in a boot, to protect his plantar fasciitis, it appears he has spent the last month running and beating on it. I have no doubt he will be in the lineup when the playoffs start but you have to wonder. (Well, i wonder)

 

[Brandon]

Winder should be back up in a few days to help the pen.  We should give Richards a few more outings to see if we should replace him with Winder.  Also it’s about time for Varland to get ready for a bullpen move.  That should help shore it up some for the time being.

also I wonder if Zebby would have been given a chance to work the 6th inning today if the Twins had scored some runs and had a decent lead.

[DJL44]

31 minutes ago, Brandon said:

Winder should be back up in a few days to help the pen. 

Winder might get promoted but I'm skeptical that a reliever with an ERA over 6 in AAA is going to help.

[mikelink45]

I love these retrospectives - so much to chew on.  

• Why are we so protective of the 40 man when we need to be protective of the team's playoff potential.  For example - I keep saying Keirsey who is have a wonderful season, but not in MLB but Margot is.  I don't care about which league the player is in now if they can play an effective SS they should have taken the field for Correa.  And why did it take so long to bring Wallner back up when he was trampling AAA pitchers. And could we take advantage of Eeles being locked in this year?
• Varland is being saved as a SP, but right now he should be in the pen.  We seem to love DFA guys and no one else in the league that is hungry for RP does.  What is going on?  I know we made a "huge trade" for a RP (who should be DFA'd but that would look bad).
• I would let Paddock go - why do we love IL guys - Mahle, Pineda, Paddack, Topa?????
• Farmer has taken Margot's place as an ineffective PH, but we keep using him.
• Julien's career has spun out of control this year and when Lee comes back Julien should be gone, but probably Lee will be the SS.
• Winder is not the savior, not a SP, but better than the bottom of the list.
• Alcala has a live arm that has everyone excited, but he has 1.6 WAR in six years.  1.0 of that this year and he is progressively less reliable with 6 runs allowed in his last five games and 6 innings.  He has not earned our trust at the top of the BP (I know few have).
•  

[William K Johnson]

It looks like Lee will be back today, most likely meaning that Julien is sent down, Castro back to second until CC gets back.   The concern for both CC and Buxton is growing by the day.   Kiriloff may be done as a Twin.  We are way past the time that Farmer and Margot should have been DFA'd.   I like the idea of Varland in the pen but not the rotation.   Finally, maybe the best things to come out of this season will be the growth of both Larnac and Wallner and Festa and Matthews getting a feel of the major leagues.  There is no longer any doubt that Kepler will be gone as both Larnac and Wallner appear ready to take his place.  This winter the Twins need to not only acquire a top left-handed reliever but also a right-hand hitting outfielder.   

[theBOMisthebomb]

The classic and oft repeated Minnesota Twins nosedive just in time for the playoffs. 

[tampatwins]

The playoffs are far from a certainty, as Rocco seems to be playing as if its a guarantee, since a few more of yesterdays clunkers, combined with a few Boston wins (plus a series against them in sept), and things suddenly get a whole lot more interesting…they have to have the killer instinct and they don’t seem to have it. Correa can’t come back fast enough, and what is Farmer even doing on the roster at this point? Farmer wrecked any late game momentum BEFORE Juliens adventure toss. Bring up Kiersey and see what he’s got as a jolt down the stretch.

[LambchoP]

It looks like Lee is healthy so today he should be called up to play 2nd and Julien sent down. That should help the lineup and definitely our defense. We really need Correa and Buxton back. Your heel hurts? Well you've had over a month to get off it man. Are him and Buck just hoping the rest of the team can make the playoffs for them? Then all of a sudden, they're both healthy and ready for game one of wildcard round? I think that unless we get one, or both of them back soon we may not make the playoffs at all. Our bullpen is probably my biggest worry. Both Zebby and Festa only throw 5 innings, meaning there will be a lot more innings to cover. Maybe Winder can help, but it's also time to move Varland to the pen where he can go multiple innings. Grab Tonkin off waivers and release Richards. He provides no value whatsoever and will only hurt us.