Can Royce Lewis Stick at Third Base, or Do Twins Need to Move Him Elsewhere?

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

Freddie Freeman (6/$162 at age 32) and Bruce Harper (13/$330) say hi.

Teams pay for offense, no matter the position. 

 

Those guys don't hit like Correa or Lindor, they hit much better than Correa and Lindor - which is precisely the point being made. No 1B with an .800 OPS is getting paid close to 30 mil a year.

Rhys Hoskins got 2/$34.

[ashbury]

20 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

With...say...Miranda at 3rd, Correa at SS, and Lewis at 1st?

With Lee backing up SS and 3rd?

With the added benefit of perhaps a little better defense? Possibly better health?

I've definitely warmed up to Miranda's defense and currently feel a bit more comfortable in any given game when Jose is there.  I've seen Jose make difficult plays there, and I've seen Royce make difficult plays there.  Both have flubbed plays that on a different day they might have made.  They're very different kinds of defenders but the net results have been similar.  Neither of them is exactly an asset at third, quite yet.  Royce is maybe considered to have the higher defensive upside there, but that's for the future.

So I'd actually be okay with the combination you named.  Or vice versa at 1B-3B if the team can unlock more out of Lewis than he's currently showed.  Second base is another story, also with intriguing options.  Infield is a team strength; I wish the outfield were coming together as nicely. The key is one of Miranda or Lewis stepping up just a bit and making 3B his own.  The other's bat will play at 1B, probably, though Miranda's bat doesn't have quite the pedigree Lewis's does.

[ashbury]

15 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

I still see Noah Miller being a greg gagne type if/when he gets his shot.

Not sure, but I assume you mean that as the compliment it would be if I had said it.  😀 Greg Gagne had a lot to do with that team jelling.  And I'm not quite as high on Noah as that, but you never know.

[Jim wyllie]

I think they need to move him if just to prevent more injuries my thought is Lewis at first, Lee at third, Martin at second, and Correa at shortstop.   Miranda can dh and cover the corners to rest Lee and lewis.   Perhaps long term keaschall could play second base.  I do think it would serve the twins better to make this setup happen.   It would be beneficial defensively and health wise.  Lewis has already dealt with significant injuries and would line up well at first

[mnfireman]

23 minutes ago, ashbury said:

The fallacy, if there is one, is spending $5M on a Carlos Santana and declaring him to be a bargain. I personally aim higher than his current .754 OPS, because you can find first basemen who hit far better than that.

Put whatever faith you want in it, FanGraphs shows Santana's 2024 value currently at $18.5 MM, basically showing that he IS a bargain at $5 MM.

[ashbury]

8 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

Put whatever faith you want in it, FanGraphs shows Santana's 2024 value currently at $18.5 MM, basically showing that he IS a bargain at $5 MM.

He IS a bargain at $5M.  No question.

The fallacy is thinking that's a good thing.

Contending teams don't build the free-agent portion of their roster $5M at a time, though.  And the only reason analytics shows a high value like $18.5M is because teams have to outbid each other for average talent.

[mnfireman]

6 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Contending teams don't build the free-agent portion of their roster $5M at a time, though.  

Can we forward this memo to the Pohlad's and the FO....

[USAFChief]

10 minutes ago, ashbury said:

 

Contending teams don't build the free-agent portion of their roster $5M at a time, though.  

Correct. That's a little steep for Twins ownership. 

[Fatbat]

29 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Not sure, but I assume you mean that as the compliment it would be if I had said it.  😀 Greg Gagne had a lot to do with that team jelling.  And I'm not quite as high on Noah as that, but you never know.

Thats how I meant it. He was never a great hitter but everything else was rock solid. I especially loved the way he played defense.

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

Freddie Freeman (6/$162 at age 32) and Bruce Harper (13/$330) say hi.

Teams pay for offense, no matter the position. 

 

Harper was not a 1B and I said that hit like Correa / Lindor.  Do you really think that Correa / Lindor are equivalent offensively to Harper and Freeman.  Career OPS:

Correa  .825

Lindor    .813

Harper   .912

Freeman   .901

[tony&rodney]

3 hours ago, bean5302 said:

If Lewis wants to become a good SS, he can.

Hey I like Royce Lewis. One cannot just pretend he will suddenly become a good shortstop. He has never been considered even adequate for the levels he played at going all the way back to high school. Some of my very best athletes were not good at shortstop. Buxton is a great athlete, not a shortstop. Correa doesn't match either Buxton or Lewis for athleticism, but Correa is a very good shortstop.

The Twins put players in the lineup based on offense. That leaves 3B, 1B, and DH for Lewis unless he gets moved to the outfield. If Miranda hits, 3B is his and Royce plays elsewhere. 1B is an important position on the diamond. Every pitcher craves good fielders and don't want to hear comments about 'less demanding" because that guy who scoops everything, comes off the bag to save errant throws, and everything else required by a first baseman is valued. Those who hit get a spot. That's the way the Twins roll. We don't get a voice in how Falvey puts together a team. So if Lewis hits, he plays somewhere. 

 

[wabene]

4 hours ago, Road trip said:

The key problem is bolded.  Royce has barely played 3b and is still learning and becoming comfortable in the position.  In unfortunately typical Twins fashion they almost never played him at 3b in the minors (a mere 15 games).  It is little wonder that even Miranda looks better right now at 3b, as he has played it much more.  However Royce appears to be the superior athlete, and likely will become a better fielder at 3b as he gains experience.  His arm is strong enough and his range is adequate, so there is no reason he can't become an above average defender there with a little more work and experience.  Think back to Koskie, who was brutal when young but eventually became an above average fielder at 3b.  Royce should be more than capable of the same evolution so long as he stays healthy.

Lee has played less 3rd than Lewis, but doesn't appear to have a problem with the throws.

[tony&rodney]

5 minutes ago, wabene said:

Lee has played less 3rd than Lewis, but doesn't appear to have a problem with the throws.

Not only has Lee had few problems, but Brooks has been ticketed/predicted as a 3B all along. Can he hit enough to hold the position? Can he play 2B? Brooks is a little slow for 2B, but he is pretty savvy about the game. For Lee, it all comes down to hitting.

[ashbury]

44 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

Thats how I meant it. He was never a great hitter but everything else was rock solid. I especially loved the way he played defense.

I'll go you one better.  Gagne was a lot more effective hitter than most folks give him credit for.  Most games, he gave the Twins a competitive advantage at bat over whoever the opposing team was running out there - all except obvious exceptions of Detroit and Toronto in 1987 for instance.  And his defense being top-notch made the advantage just that much sweeter.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

4 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Hey I like Royce Lewis. One cannot just pretend he will suddenly become a good shortstop. He has never been considered even adequate for the levels he played at going all the way back to high school

I encourage you to substantiate this claim, flesh it out with attribution from guys like Radcliff or Falvey  @tony&rodney

[NYCTK]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

1B is an important position on the diamond.

every position is "important". its just a fact that 1B is the easiest to fill. therefore, its the least important. 

[Road trip]

1 hour ago, wabene said:

Lee has played less 3rd than Lewis, but doesn't appear to have a problem with the throws.

Agreed... Lee is off the charts defensively, apparently no matter where he plays in the infield.  But he's not a normal MLB player.  It would be nice to have a team full of Brooks Lee's to spread around the diamond, but unfortunately a tiny percentage of MLB players fit this mold at such a young age.  Hopefully his bat will be adequate soon at this level.

[jmlease1]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

I'll go you one better.  Gagne was a lot more effective hitter than most folks give him credit for.  Most games, he gave the Twins a competitive advantage at bat over whoever the opposing team was running out there - all except obvious exceptions of Detroit and Toronto in 1987 for instance.  And his defense being top-notch made the advantage just that much sweeter.

Greg Gagne's career OPS+ was 83. He never had a season where he had an OPS+ over 100 (you know, average). Slightly more than half of his career bWAR was because of his defense. While he accumulated some decent value on offense for the time, it's because so many SS in his era couldn't hit their weight and they were skinny dudes. He wasn't a particularly good hitter, didn't take many walks, and was a pretty bad baserunner (look at that caught stealing %! ugh.) And I say this as someone who liked Greg Gagne a lot.

but competitive advantage is why you leave Royce at 3B to figure it out longer than this. If he can hit like this and provide solid defense it gives you more options to have a deeper and stronger offense. 

[wabene]

4 hours ago, NYCTK said:

Would love to see Lee play well enough to earn 2B, but man he really stunk. The last 89 PAs his OPS was 520. He didn't look outmatched and his peripherals suggest he should perform much better than that. But woof! I have a lot more faith in him being a good big leaguer than Julien, though, that's for sure. 

His back injury likely impacted his performance

[ashbury]

4 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

it's because so many SS in his era couldn't hit their weight

So are you actually disagreeing with anything I said?  I carefully compared the teams in 1987 and except for Detroit and Toronto the Twins had an advantage on offense versus every other team when Gagne played.  Thus he was underrated offensively because people fail to take into account that shortstops often get a pass on offense because the position is so important.

OPS+ is useful to know but it has to be in the context of what other teams are putting up against you.  The same number from your shortstop can become a liability if it's your left fielder or DH, every time you look at the lineup card your manager sends out there versus the other team's.

[nicksaviking]

3 hours ago, USAFChief said:

With...say...Miranda at 3rd, Correa at SS, and Lewis at 1st?

With Lee backing up SS and 3rd?

With the added benefit of perhaps a little better defense? Possibly better health?

I'd be up for it with the way the current roster is constructed. But I'm not a fan of locking up 1st base long term though. You can get squeeze some pretty dang good hitters into first base who are more questionable than Lewis to play somewhere else.

[JD-TWINS]

Sorry - can’t read al 76 submissions….. got through page 1, maybe duplication here? I have been a proponent of him playing LF or 1B since Lee got to AAA. I didn’t know Julien was going to disappear though.

2B is too risky for Royce even with the protective rules now in place. His legs don’t need any unnecessary torque.

3B should be manned by LEE……he looks fantastic there.

LF - Greg Luzinski played LF ……Killebrew played LF ……Royce can play LF and not get hurt - if he and his mgmt team are going to push back big time, he should go to 1B. Why are people here dismayed by him playing there? Lee at 3B - Julien/Martin /Castro/Keaschall are all possibilities at 2B …..Lee doesn’t NEED to play 2B!

Power hitting Royce Lewis at 1B for the next 13-15 years ……solid defender. What’s the rub? He’s a more athletic & way better hitter than Rhys Hoskins…..and everyone here was upset Twins didn’t sign him. He has 20HR and a WAR of zero in mid-August because he doesn’t play defense much and hits .230. 

Miranda can DH - spell Lee at 3B - spell Lewis at 1B. Castro and Larnach (DH) can play LF - Wallner in RF. Castro is essentially the RH OF free agent we all keep pushing for …... Lewis is the solution at 1B.

[nicksaviking]

3 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Power hitting Royce Lewis at 1B for the next 13-15 years ……solid defender. What’s the rub? He’s a more athletic & way better hitter than Rhys Hoskins…..and everyone here was upset Twins didn’t sign him. He has 20HR and a WAR of zero in mid-August because he doesn’t play defense much and hits .230. 

 

I'm not sure who you are arguing with here, because the people who would have liked Rhys Hoskins, are likely the same people who like Lewis at 3B. And the same people who believe WAR is a poor tool and gives defense too much weight.

[jmlease1]

5 minutes ago, ashbury said:

So are you actually disagreeing with anything I said?  I carefully compared the teams in 1987 and except for Detroit and Toronto the Twins had an advantage on offense versus every other team when Gagne played.  Thus he was underrated offensively because people fail to take into account that shortstops often get a pass on offense because the position is so important.

OPS+ is useful to know but it has to be in the context of what other teams are putting up against you.  The same number from your shortstop can become a liability if it's your left fielder or DH, every time you look at the lineup card your manager sends out there versus the other team's.

I just think you overrate the competitive advantage for Gagne's hitting when the AL had Cal Ripken, Alan Trammel, Tony Fernandez, and Julio Franco all playing SS, you know? Sure, it's a real advantage over the Angel Salazar's of the world, but not much of one against an Alfredo Griffin-type in '87.

[JD-TWINS]

1 minute ago, nicksaviking said:

I'm not sure who you are arguing with here, because the people who would have liked Rhys Hoskins, are likely the same people who like Lewis at 3B. And the same people who believe WAR is a poor tool and gives defense too much weight.

Not ARGUING with anyone. On page one 8 of 10 responses are ….Royce can’t play 1B, it would be terrible - I disagree.

[nicksaviking]

5 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Not ARGUING with anyone. On page one 8 of 10 responses are ….Royce can’t play 1B, it would be terrible - I disagree.

Just about every one of them is saying they don't want to move Royce not that he can't play 1B. The subtext of every one of those posts is basically that it's too early in his career to give up the offensive potential of him playing a more premium defensive position.

[JD-TWINS]

3 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Just about every one of them is saying they don't want to move Royce not that he can't play 1B. The subtext of every one of those posts is basically that it's too early in his career to give up the offensive potential of him playing a more premium defensive position.

I know he can play 1B - don’t think anyone disagrees with that premise. He’s in the line-up either corner spot he plays - how is offense lost? Nobody gets points on the scoreboard because a certain defensive position has a better hitter than the opponents. That said, 1B is typically a spot for a power bat - (Royce) and a spot for a guy that you don’t want to risk at another spot, in Lewis’ case, not because he’s a poor player but because their trying to keep him as healthy as possible.

Theoretically we don’t have enough offense at 1B now.

Lee is a better 3B & will remain so even after Royce “works on his defense there”. Lee is supposed to be a regular on the club with great upside. There are 4 other guys that can play 2B in the organization, at a minimum.

Some think they may sign Santana again - love what Carlos has done in ‘24 and have been behind him all year. Don’t want to see him playing 1B again at age 39.

 

[nicksaviking]

11 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

I know he can play 1B - don’t think anyone disagrees with that premise. He’s in the line-up either corner spot he plays - how is offense lost? Nobody gets points on the scoreboard because a certain defensive position has a better hitter than the opponents. That said, 1B is typically a spot for a power bat - (Royce) and a spot for a guy that you don’t want to risk at another spot, in Lewis’ case, not because he’s a poor player but because their trying to keep him as healthy as possible.

Theoretically we don’t have enough offense at 1B now.

Lee is a better 3B & will remain so even after Royce “works on his defense there”. Lee is supposed to be a regular on the club with great upside. There are 4 other guys that can play 2B in the organization, at a minimum.

Some think they may sign Santana again - love what Carlos has done in ‘24 and have been behind him all year. Don’t want to see him playing 1B again at age 39.

 

I agreed earlier that Lewis playing 1B now wouldn't hurt the offense, but historically, that's not usually the case. A + bat at 3B AND 1B is a better lineup than a + bat at 1B and a - bat at 3B. If for instance Lewis is now entrenched at 1B and we later find that Brooks Lee isn't the offensive player we all are hoping for, that negatively impacts the lineup if he's forced to play because now he's the best option at 3B or 2B or where ever.

[TL]

Totally agree, he has not played the position much and has been injured much of the last three years. Pending health, I would expect him to be significantly improved next spring after an off-season where he can turn his full attention to third base defense. 

[DocBauer]

PART 1:

Well, this article sure got the fingers going didn't it? But I really disagree with the premise. Especially the part where it was stated: "feeling confident about Lewis at any one position is nearly impossible".

Huh?

The early part of the OP remarks about what a great athlete he is, and applauds his hand eye coordination, but we can't feel comfortable playing him anywhere? Excuse me???

Let's retrace a bit shall we? Royce played 3B in HS as there was a quality SS upper classmate ahead of him. He moved to SS as a senior. He was a top 100 prospect as a SS, though there was some concern if he'd stick there full time. I don't recall anyone ever stating he'd be a BAD SS, just maybe not good enough to be a full time starter, but the jury was certainly out. Fast forward past TWO knee injuries and he moved to 3B basically just before he made his ML debut, though he continued to see reps at SS.

Maybe I'm forgotten, but wwre there any complaints or articles last season about him not being able to play 3B adequately? I don't recall any. Now that he's struggled with some throws, he's questionable at 3B or anywhere else?

He's missed an awful lot of time. Time that allows him to play consecutively for a period of time at 3B. His throwing motion, for whatever reason, had suddenly gotten out of whack despite being a former SS who's also played some 3B. Hmmmm....couldn't he put in some work and get his throwing motion back in line?

Wow! An amazing concept! A good athlete who's played the left side of the INF his whole life gets some "yips" but can put in work to correct that? Who knew?

Lewis is not moving off 3B any time soon. He has everything in his tool box to be a dangerous hitter and quality defender. He just needs to polish to throwing.