Minnesota Twins Projections, Playoff Odds Say: Go For It at Trade Deadline

[Matthew Trueblood]

The sweet spot for adding to a team at the trade deadline is a bit different for every market, every moment, and every ownership group. But it's very hard to argue that the 2024 Twins aren't in their sweet spot with 24 hours to the MLB trade deadline.

Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports

Admittedly, the Twins could do nothing before 5 PM Central Tuesday evening, when the trade deadline will hit, and they would still have a fine chance to reach October. According to FanGraphs, in fact, their current chance to make the playoffs stands at 87.0%. They're projected to win 89 games by the end of the regular season. That's exactly the right inflection point at which to push hard, though.

Though they lag the Cleveland Guardians in the AL Central right now, the same projection model gives the team a 39.3% chance to win their division, and a 35.6% chance to claim a first-round bye. They have, at this moment (in other words, given the standings and the model's estimate of the strength of all teams involved, without accounting for the trades today that have landed Justin Turner on the Mariners and added young pitcher Quinn Priester to the Red Sox pitching staff), a 33.4% projected chance to reach the ALCS, and a 17.0% chance to win the pennant. Those aren't flimsy, remote figures. They signify a real and tangible shot at doing something special this fall.

Given the collective trauma of the Twins fan base (a two-decade playoff losing streak newly terminated but far from forgotten), the dynamic of the market (a real opportunity to lay primary claim to the local sports fan's entertainment dollar, but creeping threats to that primacy from the Timberwolves and maybe Vikings), and the age and developmental stage of this roster, I would argue that all the numbers above point in the same direction. When you have such a robust overall playoff probability, but aren't in the 95-100% range, you gain something very real by pushing toward that ceiling, rather than risking the loss of a playoff spot that feels almost in hand and the attendant blow to fan morale. When you're just on the wrong side of a coin flip for the division title (and guaranteed playoff home games, which the second Wild Card entrant in the playoffs doesn't get), you gain meaningfully by pressing to get to the right side of it.

Moreover, the exponential value of a deep playoff run for this team can't be overlooked. The fans would be heartened and the new interest engendered by last year's run concretized. In turn, the team on the field would benefit from the direct cash infusion of a bunch of playoff games at Target Field, and from greater ownership largesse as they get to revise their revenue estimates upward. An ALCS appearance might be worth $30 million to the Twins between October and the end of 2025. A World Series appearance would be worth more than $50 million. Winning it could push toward being a nine-figure boon.

The Pohlad family would deny those numbers, because owners don't want you to know how much money they're making at any point. They might not reinvest the influx of cash as aggressively as fans would like. They'd quietly open the checkbook a little wider, though, because they'd be making too much more money not to do so. In turn, that would build out the fan base for the next half-decade, and make it easier for the Twins to establish the regional hegemony they really should be capable of in the AL Central, with long-lasting salutary effects.

Ownership doesn't seem to understand or agree with this, so the front office will have to be flexible, creative, and a little bit less risk-averse than they tend to be, in order to make a significant upgrade. So be it. They should try to make one anyway. The numbers say the Twins have one shot in three to play in the ALCS for the first time since Joe Mauer was a teenager, and one shot in six to reach the World Series for the first time since he was in elementary school. They can idle for another day, and watch those chances fade just a bit, down to one in four and one in seven or something--or they can seize this opportunity, try to make those chances two in five and one in five, and plant the seeds of a new dynasty for a team that hasn't felt dynastic since Mauer's long-gone prime.

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[Cory Engelhardt]

Loud cheering dot gif :)

[Karbo]

Well said! This team is young and on the verge of being a great team. A small investmen (comparably) to continue the upward trend, and they recoup the $$ as revenue increases!

[nicksaviking]

I agree, but I don't know that 'going for it' means the same to all of us, or even the same to the people at Target Field.

There are plenty of moves that could make the Twins a better regular season team, but few that will make them a significantly better contender for a title. There have been tons of attractive names moved in the last few days to other teams, but I don't know how many of them actually puts the Twins over the top. I don't want those kinds of moves and I don't know that the kinds I want are available either.

I won't be happy if they do nothing, but I'll not be much happier to make a trade just to make a trade.

[roger]

Excellent read Matt.   Thanks!

[thelanges5]

Seeing Kikuchi to the Astros? I guess he’s off the table.  

[LA Vikes Fan]

You're right. Kikuchi to the Astros. One more possible starter acquisition down. 

[Whitey333]

Twins probably will do little to nothing.  When it's all said and done they will tell us they tried but since every team is looking for the same thing they couldn't do anything.  I suspect they may make a salary dump move to save Pohlads from going bankrupt.  Rumors in the local and some national press are indicating payroll will be cut again next year.  Oh well the Vikings start playing soon.

[Danchat]

At least get a reliever or two! We badly need a lefty we can trust with Thielbar cooked and Okert inconsistent, and who knows if Stewart will return to form (and stay healthy). They don't have to give up a whole lot to do that, prospect-wise or money-wise.

[old nurse]

Last year’s World Series winner got 30 million  the loser 24. These fantastic claims of riches for winning are unsubstantiated. 

[Doctor Wu]

9 hours ago, Danchat said:

At least get a reliever or two! We badly need a lefty we can trust with Thielbar cooked and Okert inconsistent, and who knows if Stewart will return to form (and stay healthy). They don't have to give up a whole lot to do that, prospect-wise or money-wise.

Yeah, our bullpen has looked very shaky lately, so that might be the best way to improve the team at this point. If guys like Lopez, Ober, and Ryan are healthy that could be a formidable trio to have as starting pitchers in the playoffs. But we need help in the bullpen. 

[Karbo]

1 hour ago, old nurse said:

Last year’s World Series winner got 30 million  the loser 24. These fantastic claims of riches for winning are unsubstantiated. 

Thats right, but you have to add in the boost from attendance to the extra games.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Now that Jenkins has been promoted, maybe the Twins could get Blake Snell for the Ft. Myers Mussels' team. 

[Major League Ready]

2 hours ago, old nurse said:

Last year’s World Series winner got 30 million  the loser 24. These fantastic claims of riches for winning are unsubstantiated. 

Does half of that 30M go to the players?  

[USAFChief]

3 hours ago, old nurse said:

Last year’s World Series winner got 30 million  the loser 24. These fantastic claims of riches for winning are unsubstantiated. 

Source?

[LambchoP]

To be a true playoff contender the Twins need a solid 2-3 type starter and two bullpen arms. At least one, if not two good lefties. The way it's going, I think the Twins will be one of two teams along with the A's to do absolutely nothing. What a message to send to the fans.....Hope you enjoyed the playoffs last year, because from here on out it looks like payroll cuts and no meaningful additions for awhile:(

[Cap'n Piranha]

I have to quibble with the idea that the Twins could pass the Vikings for popularity with a deep playoff push.  I think it takes at least a WS title, and maybe more than one for the Twins to permanently unseat the Vikings as the most popular local team.

I also agree with Nick--moves around the margins don't interest me, especially because you aren't guaranteed to avoid a Dyson or a Mahle, and one of the best ways to help the "young" core is to continue to replenish from within.  As I've mentioned in other posts, Jeffers, Lewis, Larnach, Ryan, Ober, Jax, and Duran will all be in arbitration next year (as will Castro, Stewart, and Topa); that's more or less the entirety of the young core, and with the likely plummeting in TV revenue ahead, the Twins will not be able to keep all those players unless they can figure out how to offload Correa and/or Lopez.  As such, keeping players like Festa, Matthews, Jenkins, Rodriguez, Lee, Keaschall, etc. is paramount to keep the team relevant, unless you really want to shoot your shot in the next 3 years, and spend the next half-decade reliving the 2010's

[old nurse]

4 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Source?

 

4 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Source?

You appear to not be able to look up things for yoursef

 

[old nurse]

5 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Does half of that 30M go to the players?  

Players share of 440K for winning was separate according to Statistica

[USAFChief]

1 minute ago, old nurse said:

 

You appear to not be able to look up things for yoursef

 

 

Yeah I thought not.

[old nurse]

4 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Yeah I thought not.

If you don’t bother to ask the source of the 50 million figure I can only assume that you are just trolling me. Your response confirms that. F

[USAFChief]

2 minutes ago, old nurse said:

If you don’t bother to ask the source of the 50 million figure I can only assume that you are just trolling me. Your response confirms that. F

 

Everyone knows what the players get. 

That's not your claim.

I'll ask again:

Source?

Just provide one, and we can move on.

 

[old nurse]

14 hours ago, USAFChief said:

 

Everyone knows what the players get. 

That's not your claim.

I'll ask again:

Source?

Just provide one, and we can move on.

 

The time you have sent posting you could have looked up the answer yourself

you didn’t question the the facts and figures of the origional post just mine. Disrespect

the oyher person questioned respectfully and got an answer