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Admittedly, the Twins could do nothing before 5 PM Central Tuesday evening, when the trade deadline will hit, and they would still have a fine chance to reach October. According to FanGraphs, in fact, their current chance to make the playoffs stands at 87.0%. They're projected to win 89 games by the end of the regular season. That's exactly the right inflection point at which to push hard, though.
Though they lag the Cleveland Guardians in the AL Central right now, the same projection model gives the team a 39.3% chance to win their division, and a 35.6% chance to claim a first-round bye. They have, at this moment (in other words, given the standings and the model's estimate of the strength of all teams involved, without accounting for the trades today that have landed Justin Turner on the Mariners and added young pitcher Quinn Priester to the Red Sox pitching staff), a 33.4% projected chance to reach the ALCS, and a 17.0% chance to win the pennant. Those aren't flimsy, remote figures. They signify a real and tangible shot at doing something special this fall.
Given the collective trauma of the Twins fan base (a two-decade playoff losing streak newly terminated but far from forgotten), the dynamic of the market (a real opportunity to lay primary claim to the local sports fan's entertainment dollar, but creeping threats to that primacy from the Timberwolves and maybe Vikings), and the age and developmental stage of this roster, I would argue that all the numbers above point in the same direction. When you have such a robust overall playoff probability, but aren't in the 95-100% range, you gain something very real by pushing toward that ceiling, rather than risking the loss of a playoff spot that feels almost in hand and the attendant blow to fan morale. When you're just on the wrong side of a coin flip for the division title (and guaranteed playoff home games, which the second Wild Card entrant in the playoffs doesn't get), you gain meaningfully by pressing to get to the right side of it.
Moreover, the exponential value of a deep playoff run for this team can't be overlooked. The fans would be heartened and the new interest engendered by last year's run concretized. In turn, the team on the field would benefit from the direct cash infusion of a bunch of playoff games at Target Field, and from greater ownership largesse as they get to revise their revenue estimates upward. An ALCS appearance might be worth $30 million to the Twins between October and the end of 2025. A World Series appearance would be worth more than $50 million. Winning it could push toward being a nine-figure boon.
The Pohlad family would deny those numbers, because owners don't want you to know how much money they're making at any point. They might not reinvest the influx of cash as aggressively as fans would like. They'd quietly open the checkbook a little wider, though, because they'd be making too much more money not to do so. In turn, that would build out the fan base for the next half-decade, and make it easier for the Twins to establish the regional hegemony they really should be capable of in the AL Central, with long-lasting salutary effects.
Ownership doesn't seem to understand or agree with this, so the front office will have to be flexible, creative, and a little bit less risk-averse than they tend to be, in order to make a significant upgrade. So be it. They should try to make one anyway. The numbers say the Twins have one shot in three to play in the ALCS for the first time since Joe Mauer was a teenager, and one shot in six to reach the World Series for the first time since he was in elementary school. They can idle for another day, and watch those chances fade just a bit, down to one in four and one in seven or something--or they can seize this opportunity, try to make those chances two in five and one in five, and plant the seeds of a new dynasty for a team that hasn't felt dynastic since Mauer's long-gone prime.
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- tarheeltwinsfan, Hrbeks Divot, Karbo and 1 other
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