Yusei Kikuchi or Bust if the Twins Want a Rental at the MLB Trade Deadline

[ashbury]

I'm skeptical the Twins will free up both the necessary salary space and the prospect capital to make Kikuchi happen.

Much better option than Paxton, though.  I was intrigued by Paxton's availability yesterday, but this morning I wouldn't bother with him.  When in doubt, don't bet against the Dodgers' player evaluations.  I don't care at all for the other pitchers named in this thread as alternatives either, the common thread being low strikeout rates, and/or high walks, and/or current ERA fueled by a stretch of favorable BABIPpery that I don't believe will be sustainable.

[DFlow]

This would be a classic Twins trade from the 2004-2017 eras where it’s a minor trade to help you in season, but not for the post season. That speaks volumes as to why the Twins didn’t win anything during that time frame in the postseason.

Kikuchi is not a playoff starter. That’s pretty basic as his ERA and stuff are not good enough to pitch in October (as we saw last year against him). The only SP rental upgrades is Flaherty. A dream trade here would be Flaherty for Gonzalez & Raya (two fringe 100 guys).

If the Twins will accept a guy with an extra year of term, Fedde, Eovaldi (w/vesting op), and Eflin are upgrades but I don’t see it happening with the state of the Twins finances.

The reality is don’t settle for someone who can’t help you in October. You may as well just roll with Paddack or a young guy otherwise.

 

[JD-TWINS]

35 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

He is worth Schobel (who I wish well), but minor league OPS is .714 and most of that came last year at high A, since at no other time has he put up a .700 OPS on top of a plays a position the Twins are seemingly deep in.

The argument that the Twins aren't good enough to go far in the playoffs is an excuse that could be used every year from now until there is no more MLB baseball.

The Window is wider next year? Really? how is this team getting younger? It isn't like the Twins have a multiple young guys just coming into their own next year besides Lee and SWR. Everybody else is already over the age of 25 (or older)and probably are who they are.

Shedding Kepler - Santana - Farmer - Thielbar is fairly significant, IMO, going into ‘25. ……regardless, almost always want to push to WIN NOW!

Over age 25 is hardly old in baseball……. seldom see guys under 23-24 coming into the League. Can’t get anxious because a guy’s going to be 27 or 28!

Schobel has nearly zero trade value - he’s not netting a starter that 5 other Teams will try to get.

[JD-TWINS]

Just now, JD-TWINS said:

Shedding Kepler - Santana - Farmer - Thielbar is fairly significant, IMO, going into ‘25. ……regardless, almost always want to push to WIN NOW!

Over age 25 is hardly old in baseball……. seldom see guys under 23-24 coming into the League. Can’t get anxious because a guy’s going to be 27 or 28!

Schobel has nearly zero trade value - he’s not netting a starter that 5 other Teams will try to get.

……..forgot, Margot will be gone as well.

[TwinsDr2021]

6 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

There are two reasons I think the window gets wider next year.  First, I think that Miranda, Jeffers, Lewis, Castro, and Lee at the very least will continue to improve and be stalwarts in the lineup next year. I also have hope that Wallner and LArnach will do the same. I disagree that by age 25 players "are what they are". I think the window for improvement continues to least 27 or 28 and maybe even beyond that. People get better at their job the more they do their job. Second, I also think we're going to see improvement from Ryan, SWR, and Ober in the rotation and a better year from Lopez. I also see a step up in the secondary players as Martin takes over for Margot, Julien and Lee take over for Farmer, and Miranda starts playing every day and slowly eases out Santana (who I think will be back next year). That's not counting Emma, Keaschall, and Keirsey, all of whom could help the Twins in 2025 either as a reserve or in the second half of the season. Overall, I think the team is trending up and has not yet hit the potential of the players we currently have, much less players on their way up.

I do agree that he is probably worth Schobel now that I've looked more closely at how he's doing. That of course means he is less likely to be enough for the Blue Jays. My thought would be trading someone outside of the top 10 who is not a pitcher might make some sense given all of the younger players we already have. I'm just not ready to give up any more than that.

I am not saying they aren't going to be as good next year or even better, but you did say improvement until 27 or 28, next year, Larnach, Castro, Jeffers 28, Wallner 27, Ryan, Lopez, Ober, Alcala  all 29, Jax 30 all healthy this year. Can't see Miranda improving on a 148 OPS+, Buxton healthy this year. A healthy Lewis should improve the team, but that will also reduce Castro's time. Julien/Wallner could be better as well, Martin is a utility player at best. If Emma or Keaschall are full time players something has probably gone wrong and that pushes the next best year to 26.

Keirsey is currently a 27 year old AAA player that is hitting .277 with a .823 OPS, He is closer to being out of baseball than helping a playoff contending team.

My point is quite a few things have went really, really well for the Twins this year, and just expecting those things will again the following year, with everybody on the team improving is a fools errand, and setting you up to say well 2026 will be the better year to go for it if all that doesn't happen. I am the type of guy that wants young guys up and given a change I said Miranda, Wallner, Julien, Lee should have all been called up much before they were and I would love to see Lewis and Festa (and Emma now if he wasn't hurt) be given a chance, but if you have to chance to improve a playoff contending with sacrificing the too much of the future, you do it and you do it every year, I mean what is having a great development system if you aren't, it isn't like there is room on a team for all of them.

[TwinsDr2021]

5 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Shedding Kepler - Santana - Farmer - Thielbar is fairly significant, IMO, going into ‘25. ……regardless, almost always want to push to WIN NOW!

Over age 25 is hardly old in baseball……. seldom see guys under 23-24 coming into the League. Can’t get anxious because a guy’s going to be 27 or 28!

Schobel has nearly zero trade value - he’s not netting a starter that 5 other Teams will try to get.

Not sure what you are saying, is next year going to better than this year because they are gone?

25 is not at all old in baseball unless you have seen the majors yet, but if you are older than 25 and don't have things figured out it probably means the probability of that is real low. For example Wallner and Larnach hitting lefties, Martin's arm, Julien's fielding why because they aren't going to be given the chance or they somebody younger will be.

Not sure what your definition of seldom is but 104 under the age of 25. 57 players under the age of 24, 29 under the age of 23, and 7 under age 22 have played just this year.

I tend to agree with you are Schobel trade value, but I was commenting on why he would be worth trading for Kikuchi.

 

 

[JD-TWINS]

3 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Not sure what you are saying, is next year going to better than this year because they are gone?

25 is not at all old in baseball unless you have seen the majors yet, but if you are older than 25 and don't have things figured out it probably means the probability of that is real low. For example Wallner and Larnach hitting lefties, Martin's arm, Julien's fielding why because they aren't going to be given the chance or they somebody younger will be.

Not sure what your definition of seldom is but 104 under the age of 25. 57 players under the age of 24, 29 under the age of 23, and 7 under age 22 have played just this year.

I tend to agree with you are Schobel trade value, but I was commenting on why he would be worth trading for Kikuchi.

 

 

But if Schobel has no trade value thinking he can help get Kikuchi doesn’t add up to me.

Seldom under age 23-24 is the number you showed, 29 + 7 = 36, out of 780 roster spots….around 4%.

I’m saying the team will be younger w/o the group above and it seemed you thought they wouldn’t because everyone is essentially over 25.

If THIS YEAR needs to be seized regularly, as I would agree, a Team can’t bring guys up “to give them a chance……” just to see what happens. I could care less if Kiersey ever steps on Target Field if the Team is winning!

There’s 13 roster spots to be utilized to help win games……that’s what the organization is focused on in ‘24 and in any year that they can sniff the playoffs.

[TwinsDr2021]

6 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

But if Schobel has no trade value thinking he can help get Kikuchi doesn’t add up to me.

Seldom under age 23-24 is the number you showed, 29 + 7 = 36, out of 780 roster spots….around 4%.

I’m saying the team will be younger w/o the group above and it seemed you thought they wouldn’t because everyone is essentially over 25.

If THIS YEAR needs to be seized regularly, as I would agree, a Team can’t bring guys up “to give them a chance……” just to see what happens. I could care less if Kiersey ever steps on Target Field if the Team is winning!

There’s 13 roster spots to be utilized to help win games……that’s what the organization is focused on in ‘24 and in any year that they can sniff the playoffs.

Didn't think or say the could get him, I said he is worth it to somebody that says he wasn't.

Actually the 7 are included in the 29, but the real number is 57 which is still low, but not what I call seldom, since that doesn't include the number of guys that older but came up at that age.

If nothing changes (and yes injuries will happen) going into next year these 12 eleven seem pretty set correct? Jeffers, Vazquez, Miranda, Julien, Lee, Lewis, Larnach, Buston, Wallner, Martin, Castro, Correa, that leaves one spot, probably not going to a prospect since it is clearly not a starting spot available.

Ryan, Lopez, Ober, Paddack, SWR, Duran, Sands, Jax, Alcala, Topa, Okert, Stewart, funderburk, Duarte, and that is 14 pitchers, so I would say next year's team is pretty darn close to being the same exact team as this year.

[bean5302]

Kikuchi is not a playoff caliber starter. He's never had an ERA below 3.86 in his career. His career ERA is 4.69. His career FIP is 4.64. I'm tired of hearing about him. His sparkly FIP is a total outlier, and there's no way I believe he continues it.

[JD-TWINS]

6 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Didn't think or say the could get him, I said he is worth it to somebody that says he wasn't.

Actually the 7 are included in the 29, but the real number is 57 which is still low, but not what I call seldom, since that doesn't include the number of guys that older but came up at that age.

If nothing changes (and yes injuries will happen) going into next year these 12 eleven seem pretty set correct? Jeffers, Vazquez, Miranda, Julien, Lee, Lewis, Larnach, Buston, Wallner, Martin, Castro, Correa, that leaves one spot, probably not going to a prospect since it is clearly not a starting spot available.

Ryan, Lopez, Ober, Paddack, SWR, Duran, Sands, Jax, Alcala, Topa, Okert, Stewart, funderburk, Duarte, and that is 14 pitchers, so I would say next year's team is pretty darn close to being the same exact team as this year.

I still don’t get the rationale……doesn’t really matter……if 5 guys leave…..that’s essentially 20% of the roster. Margot - Farmer - Thielbar - Santana - Kepler……cannot imagine a Team that’s winning and in the hunt for the Division wanting to change more than 20% of their 26 man roster.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

3 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Is there anything to suggest they wouldn't? I doubt 5M or whatever he'll make is a make-or-break endeavor. I know everyone wants to rip ownership over last off season, and rightfully so, but they raised payroll the prior several years, and then at the last minute this winter got a boost in revenue by finally agreeing to a terrible TV deal.

Everything they have said and done so far this year does more than just suggest they won't.  They went with Margot over MAT to save about million, do you really think they will throw $5M or even $1M out there to go along with the prospects they will need to move to improve this team?

Has there been any talk anywhere of the team changing course and be willing to take on additional payroll?  If not, every single one of these "Who should the Twins trade for" articles is a complete act of wishful thinking

[Cory Engelhardt]

2 hours ago, DFlow said:

This would be a classic Twins trade from the 2004-2017 eras where it’s a minor trade to help you in season, but not for the post season. That speaks volumes as to why the Twins didn’t win anything during that time frame in the postseason.

Kikuchi is not a playoff starter. That’s pretty basic as his ERA and stuff are not good enough to pitch in October (as we saw last year against him). The only SP rental upgrades is Flaherty. A dream trade here would be Flaherty for Gonzalez & Raya (two fringe 100 guys).

If the Twins will accept a guy with an extra year of term, Fedde, Eovaldi (w/vesting op), and Eflin are upgrades but I don’t see it happening with the state of the Twins finances.

The reality is don’t settle for someone who can’t help you in October. You may as well just roll with Paddack or a young guy otherwise.

 

Just for comparison's sake, I don't think we are giving enough credit to what stuff Kikuchi has.

 

For example, Eno Sarris put out 2nd half pitcher ratings today in the Athletic. What he looked at were his ratings that include Stuff+, Location+, Pitching+ and k to bb percentage, along with just how healthy that person has been this year. I won't list every single name here, but here are some names that stick out to me...

 

1) Tarik Skubal

2) Zack Wheeler

5) Corbin Burnes

6) Paul Skenes

18) Garrett Crochet

19) Joe Ryan

20) Pablo Lopez

22) Sonny Gray

23) Yusei Kikuchi

26) Jack Flaherty

51) Bailey Ober

52) Nathan Eovaldi

56) Zach Eflin

57) Justin Verlander

62) Luis Severino

63) Max Scherzer

64) Jose Berrios

77) Erick Fedde

81) Sean Manaea

82) Zack Littell

109) Frankie Montas

111) JP Sears

112) Jake Irvin

114) Chris Paddack

120) Tyler Mahle

121) Lance Lynn

147) Simeon Woods Richardson

155) David Festa

175) Louie Varland

 

Anyway, based on stuff and health, Kikuchi is throwing really well in 2024 compared to a lot of other names that are rumored to be available.

[nicksaviking]

13 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Everything they have said and done so far this year does more than just suggest they won't.  They went with Margot over MAT to save about million, do you really think they will throw $5M or even $1M out there to go along with the prospects they will need to move to improve this team?

Has there been any talk anywhere of the team changing course and be willing to take on additional payroll?  If not, every single one of these "Who should the Twins trade for" articles is a complete act of wishful thinking

The Twins obviously care about money, and prioritized it last winter, but Taylor's 34% K rate was a terrible fit this this club. They clearly emphasized lowering those numbers team-wide, I doubt they had any interest in brining him back at any cost. Money wasn't the issue with that move.

[JakeBru3]

Give me Eovaldi as primary target #1. 

Bigtime post season experience, could legitimately be considered a game 1 starter in the playoffs at the very least a top of the rotation arm. 

He may cost more prospect capital and the Rangers probably want MLB ready players but he should be their pitcher to chase.

[JakeBru3]

2 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

I still don’t get the rationale……doesn’t really matter……if 5 guys leave…..that’s essentially 20% of the roster. Margot - Farmer - Thielbar - Santana - Kepler……cannot imagine a Team that’s winning and in the hunt for the Division wanting to change more than 20% of their 26 man roster.

Except for the fact each one of those guys listed has arguably an upgrade waiting (outside of Santana who's been solid @ 1B) or to be found.

Those aren't building blocks to a franchise! 

 

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

43 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

The Twins obviously care about money, and prioritized it last winter, but Taylor's 34% K rate was a terrible fit this this club. They clearly emphasized lowering those numbers team-wide, I doubt they had any interest in brining him back at any cost. Money wasn't the issue with that move.

Had MAT not lobbied for a 2-year deal before settling on the same amount of money the Twins are paying Margot, he almost certainly would have been back before they made that trade (which ended up being a boon for the Twins). 

[nicksaviking]

1 minute ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

Had MAT not lobbied for a 2-year deal before settling on the same amount of money the Twins are paying Margot, he almost certainly would have been back before they made that trade (which ended up being a boon for the Twins). 

Taylor only signed a one year deal, and the Twins showed zero impatience when it came to signing free agents last winter; I'm sure they would have waited him out if they wanted him. This team clearly tried to cut down on the K's and Taylor was the second worst offender after Gallo. I see no evidence the Twins wanted him back. Looks to me he had three teams after him, none of which were the Twins:

https://www.baseballessential.com/news/free-agent-market-heating-up-minnesota-twins-michael-a-taylor-matt9

The 32-year-old, 10-year veteran who spent last season with the Minnesota Twins, has interest from three main teams — the Los Angeles Angels, the San Diego Padres and the Pittsburgh Pirates.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

24 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Taylor only signed a one year deal, and the Twins showed zero impatience when it came to signing free agents last winter; I'm sure they would have waited him out if they wanted him. This team clearly tried to cut down on the K's and Taylor was the second worst offender after Gallo. I see no evidence the Twins wanted him back. Looks to me he had three teams after him, none of which were the Twins:

https://www.baseballessential.com/news/free-agent-market-heating-up-minnesota-twins-michael-a-taylor-matt9

The 32-year-old, 10-year veteran who spent last season with the Minnesota Twins, has interest from three main teams — the Los Angeles Angels, the San Diego Padres and the Pittsburgh Pirates.

 

 

[nicksaviking]

5 minutes ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

 

 

You got me.

Worked out for the best in any case.

Well, I guess the best would have been to have neither he nor Margot, but probably time for us to walk this back to the Kikuchi discussion. 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

2 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

The Twins obviously care about money, and prioritized it last winter, but Taylor's 34% K rate was a terrible fit this this club. They clearly emphasized lowering those numbers team-wide, I doubt they had any interest in brining him back at any cost. Money wasn't the issue with that move.

As was addressed elsewhere, MAT did not come back to the Twins because of the million dollar difference. (Hindsight not being the issue).

With overwhelming evidence to the contrary, what reason is there to believe the the Twins will make ANY move that increases payroll?  We see article after article here discussing who the Twins should trade for when there is basically a zero percent chance of them bringing in someone currently outside the organization as that would increase payroll.

Is there any new information out there that says otherwise? 

[DocBauer]

Meanwhile....back  at the ranch...

If I could have the FO stretch their payroll for an additional $7-8M to finish out the season, I'd love to add Jack Flaherty to the rotation. He's healthy and having a great season. He's only going to be owed about $7-8M for a front line,  playoff caliber arm, is only a rental so theirs no further obligation, and with Detroit out of any contention, they have no reason to reject a trade to the Twins as a divisional competitor for THIS season. The problem is what do the Twins have to give up to Detroit to get him, because there's a chance they're going to be facing off against those guys the next couple of years. Don't forget, the Tigers and Twins made a deal recently for RP Fulmer. So there's precedent here, IF the FO will go that high, and IF the Twins don't have to pay too much.

Next to that little fantasy, I do like Kikuchi on an inexpensive ($4M-ish) rental that shouldn't cost much to acquire. He's still a solid, veteran arm who helps the team win the rest of the season...even if he's not part of the playoff starter mix...and can move to the pen as a LH option for short work, or for a piggy back 4th starter option in the second round. (making an assumption there). He's  just not the caliber of Flaherty, but he fills the spot of "we need a solid arm to keep us winning games through September". His BB and K numbers are good. His hits per inning is not so good. 

I can get behind the Paxton idea for the same reasons as Kikuchi, just cheaper yet, and not as good. I have a feeling he'd be better than  last season's option of Dallas Keuchel. But at that point, I'd almost roll through the youngsters...or even give Dobnak another shot...instead of making a deal with he Dodgers for anything.

 

[USAFChief]

Why half steps?

Go get Blake Snell.

[old nurse]

11 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Kikuchi would be a decent get, but it all depends on the price. He's not worth anybody in the top ten prospects. IS he worth Corey Lewis, Tanner Schobel, or Andrew Morris? Hard to do that for just 2024, assuming he will sign elsewhere as a FA after 2024.  

To me, this all depends on how good you think this team is and whether you think they can compete (defined as a deep  playoff run) this year. I tend to think this team is good but not good enough to get to the ALCS unless the playoff schedule is very favorable, and there's at least a 30-40% we won't make the playoffs at all.  I think the window opens much wider next year as the younger players have more experience. I wouldn't be willing to sacrifice much just for 2024, so I wouldn't be willing to give up much for Kikuchi. 

My call would be Tyler Anderson of the Angels. He's signed for $13m next year, a palatable sum if you want to keep him and a tradable contract if you don't. He's also a lefty and has better stats this year although inconsistent year to year. The Angels are open for business and need pretty much anything you got to replenish that farm system. A package of two prospects, one in the top 15-20, might do it.  I'd love out get Estevez too but I think the price is going to be bid up pretty high on him and he's only a rental. 

Civale fetched a ranked prospect when he was traded to Tampa Bay.. that 15-20 prospect for Anderson would mean you have a real deep farm system.

[Karbo]

19 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

I struggle with the, not wanting to give anything up approach. The reason to acquire someone is to ensure (help) getting into the playoffs. It’s not worth the organizations 16th prospect to get to this end?

There is always competition for players at the deadline - I think minds need to be more open to actually making something happen for the betterment of ‘24 outcome.

I'm open to a trade, but IMO they need to do better if they are going to give up a guy with a bright future. I don't think Kikuchi is a guy that makes the team a lot better. Although, they may be desperate now.

[Cap'n Piranha]

On 7/23/2024 at 6:47 AM, DJL44 said:

The Jays have a strong incentive to dump his salary to get under the competitive balance tax threshold.

According to Spotrac, the Jays are almost $8.5M above the threshold, so moving Kikuchi doesn't fix that absent additional moves.  Moving Guerrero and Bichette would do it, and Gausman and Bassitt would be more effective options as well.

To sum up, to get out from under the tax, the Jays have to trade at least one of Guerrero/Bichette/Bassit/Gausman; if you're tradine one of the first 3, and therefore probably punting on 2025, you may as well trade all 3, which is beneficial because you can eat some salary on all of those deals to up the return.  The idea here would be to commit one way or the other, and simply trading Kikuchi is not enough to get under the tax while still planning to compete in 2025.  As such, if Kikuchi is the only guy they trade, may as well eat the salary and get a better prospect.

[DJL44]

On 7/23/2024 at 6:07 PM, USAFChief said:

Why half steps?

Go get Blake Snell.

Robbie Ray pitched pretty well yesterday.

[DJL44]

15 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

To sum up, to get out from under the tax, the Jays have to trade at least one of Guerrero/Bichette/Bassit/Gausman; 

Turner, Kikuchi, Jansen and Yimi Garcia are all impending free agents. Trading all four gets them under the tax.

[Cap'n Piranha]

1 minute ago, DJL44 said:

Turner, Kikuchi, Jansen and Yimi Garcia are all impending free agents. Trading all four gets them under the tax.

Fair point.  Although I'm guessing the return on those 4 will be less than the return on any one of the top 4 guys I discussed.  So if the Jays do want to compete in 2025, eating salary and paying the tax might be the right move, in order to get more ammo for trades in the offseason.  Otherwise I agree, the Jays may as well trade all 4 of those guys, save a bunch of money, and run it back with some FA help next year

[Jocko87]

Does Kikucki profile as someone with stuff that plays up in the bullpen? 

I would tend to agree that he doesn't pass the Ober line as a starter but he could fill some starter innings with Festa et al then transition to the pen.  The lefty reliever is my primary concern for the deadline and he could help multiple ways.