A Royce Lewis Extension Would Need to Happen Soon. Can the Twins Execute One?

[DJL44]

Future payroll is mostly irrelevant when it comes to determining whether the Twins should sign Royce Lewis long-term. The discount they can expect gets smaller with each passing day. Superstar players on their first contract are very tradeable.

We're looking at two scenarios:

1) The Twins go through the arbitration process with Lewis. They're going to be forced to trade him after the 2027 season just like they were with Santana and Berrios. Also see the Padres and Juan Soto.

2) The Twins sign him to a 10 year $220M deal. They can trade his contract at any time until the 2032 season (when he gets 10-5 rights) or hold onto him until the end of the contract like they did with Joe Mauer.

[nicksaviking]

The Twins have had a good relationship with Boras recently, but who Lewis' agent is really isn't an issue and I think people need to stop using Boras as an excuse if something doesn't come to fruition. Boras works for Lewis, does anyone really think he'll force Lewis to do something or accept something that Lewis doesn't want?

If Lewis wants to bet on himself and play out his contract, or the Twins don't want to pay him market value, that's on the player and the team. On the other hand, if Lewis wants to be here and is willing to structure a deal in a way to accommodate the Twins current payroll situation, Boras isn't going to tell him, "Tough luck, you're going to New York whether you like it or not."

 

[Trov]

This article has been talked about before.  I find a deal unlikely to happen.  First, Boras rarely has his clients sign a deal like this.  I could see a similar deal like Witt where really they bought out a couple of FA with opt outs, and just did cost control of arb years.  I doubt Lewis buys out 2 years of FA, maybe 1 to know he is getting paid.  Look at some of the contracts in last few years under current CBA rules.  Specifically someone like Bogaerts, or Turner.  They both got very long contracts when entering age 30 season in FA.  They both got 11 year deals nearly $300 mil.  If Lewis signed a deal that took him to age 35 or 36, he would be missing out, possibly on a few seasons, because unlikely he would get a 4 or 5 year deal at 30 mil a year at that point.  Maybe if players start making a ton more in next decade, but unlikely. 

So unless we overpay to buy out those years, Boras is gonna tell him he is leaving money on the table.  Now, if Lewis wants to make sure he makes life changing money he would be willing to, because for all he knows he will have career ending injury any time.  That is the risk of the player that he may get hurt too bad to play, but he may already have an insurance policy on that as well. 

Points is, Lewis has a lot more to lose by signing that long of a deal, even one with options buying out 1 or 2 years of FA.  Now, signing a deal that controls what arb years looks like makes sense for both sides, but with some of the recent deals 30 year old guys have gotten Lewis would best bet on himself, unless he is fine leaving upwards of $100 mil on the table if not more. 

[TwinsDr2021]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

The Austin Riley deal is a great comparable. 10 years, $212M. I don't see Royce signing for anything less than that. If the Twins came to Royce with that offer this offseason they would show they are serious.

 

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

Sorry, I wasn't real clear. I was more thinking along the lines of the Acuna or Murphy contracts, maybe Albies.

I just don't see the Twins going much beyond $160 million in roster payroll unless they draw at least 2.5  million in attendance and sign a rich media contract. I question what the Minnesota market has as a financial ceiling.

Acuna, Albies aren't comparable to Lewis for multiple reasons, the main reason being both of them would have hit free agency at age 27 (prime) and not age 30. (also at the time were pretty much injury free) Murphy is also not really comparable because he wasn't going to be a FA until age 31 and signed a 6/73 million dollar deal and Royce wouldn't consider that number.

Riley is a bit closer he was going to hit FA at age 29 but was comping off a season where he played 160 games and was top 7 in MVP, and was on his way to another season of 159 games and top 6 MVP. Also in his contract there is a no buy out club option the last year. Which means it is more like a 9/192.

I would think that would be what Lewis would be looking for minimum.

After this year I don't think the Twins will give Lewis to 20 plus million, with Correa at 37.33, Lopez 21.7, Buxton 15.1, that would put just those 4 under 100 millon.

[DJL44]

7 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

After this year I don't think the Twins will give Lewis to 20 plus million

That would be disappointing. I really like watching Royce Lewis and would miss seeing him after they trade him away in 2027.

[Jim wyllie]

I would definitely extend lewis, however the smart thing they can do to offset cost is if Buxton stays healthy and that's a big if, for the remainder of the season and has at least a solid to good season, trade him for prospects.   Rodriguez is doing well in the minors abd martin and Castro are able to play center at the major league level.  So Buxton could be expendable while his value is up and he's on a reasonable contract other teams would take on easily.    

[KL1551]

99.9% won't happen.  He is a Boras client and Boras is notorious for ensuring his guys get to free agency.

[RpR]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

If the Twins win the World Series this year, I guarantee there is more payroll flexibility. Payroll limit probably goes to $180MM next year as season ticket sales will skyrocket and ticket prices will increase a lot, too. Lots depends on how the Twins perform.

I would say , if the Twins make the Post Season.

[arby58]

4 hours ago, UK Twin said:

The difference between Lewis and Trout is that Trout plays a much more physically demanding position. Like Buxton, Trout will have to be managed carefully. Lewis not so much. Lewis will require the odd off day and days DHing but all of his value is in his bat so that doesn't matter. I think the reward outweighs the risk when it comes to an extension for Lewis.

He was injured this year trying to go from first to third on a base hit. That's not exactly a 'physically demanding' play. I believe his hamstring injury last year was also while running the bases. The guy is injury-prone.

[Linus]

11 minutes ago, Jim wyllie said:

I would definitely extend lewis, however the smart thing they can do to offset cost is if Buxton stays healthy and that's a big if, for the remainder of the season and has at least a solid to good season, trade him for prospects.   Rodriguez is doing well in the minors abd martin and Castro are able to play center at the major league level.  So Buxton could be expendable while his value is up and he's on a reasonable contract other teams would take on easily.    

Buxton has a full no trade clause. 

[arby58]

3 minutes ago, RpR said:

I would say , if the Twins make the Post Season.

Right now, FanGraphs has the Twins with a 76.4% chance of making the play-offs. Interestingly, they give them the 3rd best chance of AL teams to win the World Series (Yankees are 13.6%, Orioles are 8.8% and the Twins are 6.2%).

[arby58]

5 hours ago, UK Twin said:

The difference between Lewis and Trout is that Trout plays a much more physically demanding position. Like Buxton, Trout will have to be managed carefully. Lewis not so much. Lewis will require the odd off day and days DHing but all of his value is in his bat so that doesn't matter. I think the reward outweighs the risk when it comes to an extension for Lewis.

Except three of Trout's four major injuries occurred while batting (broken hamate bone), running the bases (calf strain) and sliding into second (torn thumb ligament). He also said he didn't know what caused the torn meniscus - it also could have been running the bases.

[cmoss84]

10/200. Chalk it up. 

[Fatbat]

Spend the money. $250m with some back load and you might as well make it a 12 yr deal. With incentives. The pohlad pocket protectors will look back at it as a bargain. 

[RpR]

Wait till the end of the season before getting manic about Lewis.

[RpR]

6 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

A few thoughts...

1. He's a player with talent that only comes along once in a decade or so (think Joe Mauer).

What?

He is the oppositeof Ozzie Smith?

Genius with a bat but cannot field worth a lick.

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

 

Acuna, Albies aren't comparable to Lewis for multiple reasons, the main reason being both of them would have hit free agency at age 27 (prime) and not age 30. (also at the time were pretty much injury free) Murphy is also not really comparable because he wasn't going to be a FA until age 31 and signed a 6/73 million dollar deal and Royce wouldn't consider that number.

Riley is a bit closer he was going to hit FA at age 29 but was comping off a season where he played 160 games and was top 7 in MVP, and was on his way to another season of 159 games and top 6 MVP. Also in his contract there is a no buy out club option the last year. Which means it is more like a 9/192.

I would think that would be what Lewis would be looking for minimum.

After this year I don't think the Twins will give Lewis to 20 plus million, with Correa at 37.33, Lopez 21.7, Buxton 15.1, that would put just those 4 under 100 millon.

Yes, I don't disagree with you because none of the Atlanta players are clean comparisons. The Twins will sign a contract that easily benefits them but Lewis would not sign a 6/@$60M deal.

Then again, Lewis hasn't proven anything to deserve a contract to this point in his career.

The Twins have some big contracts on the books and arbitration coming for a host of players. Until the budget pushes upward toward $170-200 million, there will be difficult decisions made on who to keep, trade, or offer long term positions.

 

[bean5302]

Not sure why anybody thinks a long term extension needs to bump Lewis to $20MM next year or something? That never happens. The Twins would lock him in using a stepped scale as if arbitration was happening.
2025 a26 = $6MM arb1 replacement
2026 a27 = $10MM arb2 replacement
2027 a28 = $15MM arb3 replacement
2028 a29 = $22MM arb4 replacement
2029 a30 = $25MM
2030 a31 = $30MM
2031 a32 = $35MM
2032 a33 = $35MM
2033 a34 = $35MM
2034 a35 = $30MM
--------------------------- Full NTC ends
2035 a36 = $20MM team opt
2036 a37 = $20MM team opt
10yrs $243MM. That's how it might play out. But, even then, does it make a difference vs. waiting until the end of the season to see if Lewis can at least hold up that long? Nope. I don't see how it changes anything significant at all.

For that matter, I don't think it changes waiting for Lewis to play a full year next year, either.

[DocBauer]

I wouldn't do anything until Lewis is healthy for a full season, and I might include the rest of this year.

Secondly, considering the years he's still under control, an extension really wouldn't have to happen until after 2025 considering the Twins would still have 3 more years of control.

Thirdly, any extension would really kick in financially about the time Buxton's deal is about to come to an end, yes?

Fourth, any extension might only buy out 2 seasons of FA and he'd still be a FA at age 31-32. If he's healthy and productive to that point, history shows he's still got another good contract coming at that age for another 3-4 years. Meanwhile, he's already crossed the $200M mark in his career.

If it happens, that's what I'd be looking for.

[twinstalker]

The premise of this article is erroneous, I believe.  There will be no extension with the Twins, save for one accompanied by gasps at the numbers.  The only way the word "discount" should be used is something like "never going to be a discount."

Twins would have to pay stupid money to extend him a couple of years, and I doubt they could really even do that, since Royce has taken longer to get to FA than anticipated.  Boras isn't going to let him get two years older before his really big contract.

The topic should really be about why the Twins are in bed with Scott Boras when they know his and his players' only goal in a contract is to increase the salaries of all future contracts.

As I've said for the last year, enjoy Lewis while you can, and if the Twins are strategic about this, they might be looking to deal him with multiple years left under team control.  Check out the Nationals' haul on Juan Soto.  Or keep him, which is fine, too, as long as everyone understands he's six and out, and there's really nothing the Twins can do to change that.

 

 

[arby58]

15 hours ago, DJL44 said:

The Austin Riley deal is a great comparable. 10 years, $212M. I don't see Royce signing for anything less than that. If the Twins came to Royce with that offer this offseason they would show they are serious.

Austin Riley is not a 'great comparable.' He signed as a player with no major injury concerns (he's played between 159 and 160 games a year for the last three years).  If you can't see the difference from that and Lewis . . . 

[DJL44]

15 hours ago, bean5302 said:

For that matter, I don't think it changes waiting for Lewis to play a full year next year, either.

Possibly, but that is probably their last opportunity. After that Royce will have enough arbitration money in the bank to feel good about waiting for free agency. The window for this extension is short and after that the reality is going to force the Twins to trade him to get value before he walks for nothing.

[DJL44]

7 hours ago, arby58 said:

Austin Riley is not a 'great comparable.' He signed as a player with no major injury concerns (he's played between 159 and 160 games a year for the last three years).  If you can't see the difference from that and Lewis . . . 

He's been healthier but Royce is the better offensive talent. Healthy Royce Lewis would be impossible to sign at just $200M over 10 years.

[arby58]

32 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

He's been healthier but Royce is the better offensive talent. Healthy Royce Lewis would be impossible to sign at just $200M over 10 years.

My whole point is related to health. Just ignoring that and saying he's a better offensive player: see Mike Trout, Kris Bryant, Giancarlo Stanton, Anthony Rendon, etc., etc.

[tony&rodney]

42 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Royce is the better offensive talent.

Twins fans hope that Royce Lewis is a force in the lineup on a regular basis. Although totally different players and not as physically talented from a visual standpoint, there was also great hope in April for the potential contributions from Julien and Wallner. As those two have found out, it is tough to excel at the MLB level. The book is still out on Lewis, but everyone will know more by the end of this year. I sure hope Lewis can be a consistent performer for the Twins.

The post suggests a quick contract extension for Lewis and I would be shocked if the Twins were even having internal conversations about such a move at this time. Lewis is still getting his feet wet as a major league player. So while I and others (Twins fans) hope that Royce Lewis plays baseball at an All Star level on a consistent basis, we probably should wait to see how Lewis performs over a longer stretch before talking numbers on any long term contract.

[DJL44]

9 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

we probably should wait to see how Lewis performs over a longer stretch before talking numbers on any long term contract.

That's fine, as long as they don't wait themselves right out of their own price range. It's going to be a small window between "He's too risky" and "He's too expensive" for the Twins.

[RpR]

3 hours ago, DJL44 said:

That's fine, as long as they don't wait themselves right out of their own price range. It's going to be a small window between "He's too risky" and "He's too expensive" for the Twins.

The old saying: You pays your money and takes your chances, does not translate well to baseball.

[bean5302]

5 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Possibly, but that is probably their last opportunity. After that Royce will have enough arbitration money in the bank to feel good about waiting for free agency. The window for this extension is short and after that the reality is going to force the Twins to trade him to get value before he walks for nothing.

His signing bonus was $6.7MM. He's at $9.1MM career earnings already. Hopefully, he's not hurting for money.

[DJL44]

51 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

His signing bonus was $6.7MM. He's at $9.1MM career earnings already. Hopefully, he's not hurting for money.

He knows there is risk in waiting. Another knee injury could cost him over $100M.

[arby58]

On 6/28/2024 at 7:45 AM, UK Twin said:

The difference between Lewis and Trout is that Trout plays a much more physically demanding position. Like Buxton, Trout will have to be managed carefully. Lewis not so much. Lewis will require the odd off day and days DHing but all of his value is in his bat so that doesn't matter. I think the reward outweighs the risk when it comes to an extension for Lewis.

Less than a week later, this post hasn't aged well.