Three NL Teams (and Six Players) the Twins Should Watch As the Trade Deadline Approaches

[Matthew Lenz]

Five weeks from the trade deadline, there are a handful of teams in the National League who are on the playoff bubble. Specifically, the Nationals, Giants, and Reds currently find themselves within four games of a playoff spot. Should these teams decide to sell, they have players who could help the Twins win.

Image courtesy of © Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports

Looking at Baseball Prospectus's PECOTA system and their projected playoff odds for each team, the Giants (12.1%), Nationals (1.6%) and Reds (5.5%) are all longshots. Coming into the season, the Giants and Reds were expected to be playoff contenders, whereas the Nationals were fully expected to be cellar-dwellers in the NL East. Taking all things into consideration, I’m anticipating the Nationals and Giants to be sellers at the deadline, while the Reds will likely wait until the days leading up to the deadline to make any decisions.

San Francisco Giants (39-42)
Current Situation: Despite the low playoff odds, the Giants find themselves just three games back of an NL Wild Card spot. They made some splashes last offseason, acquiring Robbie Ray via trade, as well as Blake Snell, Matt Chapman, and Jung Hoo Lee via free agency. Unfortunately, Ray has yet to make a start; Snell has made six ineffective starts while battling injuries; Chapman has been solidly average; and Lee is out for the year with a shoulder injury. Outside of the names, the Giants are top-heavy in talent (Logan Webb, Camilo Doval, among others), but it quickly falls off after that.

Players to Watch: Thairo Estrada has two and a half years of team control remaining, and can play multiple positions, although he has only played at the keystone in 2024, which makes a good fit with the Twins platoon-heavy philosophy. Throughout his career, he’s spent time at every position except first base and catcher, while providing average production at the plate and even splits against left- and right-handed pitching. He’s had a bit of a down year, despite batted-ball and plate-discipline metrics around his career norms, but projection systems still see a league-average bat moving forward.

Tyler Rogers, twin brother of former Twins reliever Taylor Rogers, has been a very good weapon out of the bullpen and has a year of team control following 2024. The fit is obvious, and Rogers carries an elite 1.3% walk rate and good batted-ball data. The only true submariner in baseball, he's an extreme ground-ball pitcher.

Missing bats isn’t his specialty, but he still gets results, relying on one of the best sinkers in the game. He also throws a slider, which has previously been effective, but has been a bit less so in 2024.

Washington Nationals (38-42)
Current Situation: It’s surprising to see the Nationals in the hunt, just 2.5 games out of a playoff spot, and that can be attributed to one of the better rotations and bullpens in baseball… on the surface. Their top four starters have ERAs of 3.81, 3.13, 2.22, and 3.30, although their expected stats, peripherals, and projection models suggest some negative regression may be around the corner. To a lesser extent, the same could be said for the high-leverage bullpen arms, whereas their offense is one of the worst in the league--with only two qualified batters with a wRC+ above 91.

Players to Watch: The Nationals have three solid, right-handed relievers who are controllable through 2025 (Kyle Finnegan, Hunter Harvey, and Derek Law), not to mention Dylan Floro (…yep…), who is a free agent at season's end. To be honest, I’d be interested in acquiring any of these arms to supplement the Twins bullpen, but in the spirit of the exercise, I am going to keep an eye on Derek Law, specifically.

Other than an elite chase rate of 35%, nothing pops off the page, but that hasn’t stopped Law from being a productive medium-leverage arm over the last two season. He managed that even in 2023, pitching half his games in Great American Ballpark. A 15% K-BB% is fine, a 3.58/3.40 FIP/SIERA is fine, and the run values of his various pitches (ranging from 3 to -2) are, well, fine. And that’s the exact type of addition I want them to make in the bullpen. Splash elsewhere.

The Nationals have two cheap but uninspiring utility bats with team control through 2025, in Nick Senzel and Ildemaro Vargas. Both of these players have played multiple positions in the outfield and the infield, and each has a roughly league-average wRC+ in 2024. Senzel is better with the bat, and Vargas is better with the glove, but both Baseball Savant profiles are U-G-L-Y. Projection models like Vargas more than Senzel at the plate, but I can’t say I’d be overly thrilled if the Twins pursued either of these options.

Cincinnati Reds (37-43)
Current Situation: The Baltimore Orioles of the NL came into the season hoping to have a season like the one the actual Orioles are having. Instead, they are six games below .500 and 3.5 games out of a playoff spot. Despite playing half their games in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in all of baseball, their offense is in the bottom third of the league in runs per game, while their pitching staff has kept them in the hunt. Interestingly, they don’t have a single hitter who will be a free agent at season's end and, across the entire 40-man roster, there are only three players bound for the open market soon.

Players to Watch: This is a longshot, because he’s only 26 years old and has four years of team control left, but I wonder if Graham Ashcraft is a “change of scenery” candidate. There is a stark contrast in his home and road splits, including a 25-percent increase in home runs surrendered and an ERA 1.43 runs higher at GABP. On the road, Ashcraft looks to be a solid back-of-the-rotation arm, with room to improve if he can increase his extension and develop a plus pitch or two. If all else fails, he'd almost certainly be a good reliever. The more I read on this guy, the more intrigued I am. Ashcraft could almost certainly benefit from one of the better pitching development organization in baseball.

Lefty reliever Justin Wilson is one of the three who will be a free agent after the World Series, and is a great buy-low candidate. Expected stats aren’t predictive, but when your ERA is more than two times higher than your xERA, I think we can predict some positive regression. It’s a limited sample, but Savant (along with various projection models) likes Wilson’s under-the-hood data. 

The only names mentioned here that would be somewhat of a “splash” are Rogers and Ashcraft. The latter is certainly interesting, but if it were me, I’d rather see the Twins make a bigger play in the lineup or rotation and look to acquire less expensive names like Law and/or Wilson.

Do you find any of these names intriguing? Did I miss anyone from this group of teams that you’d rather see the team pursue?

View full article

[Brandon]

Vargas was a Twin once upon a time like Law and Floro

[DocBauer]

Go grab Tyler Rogers AND Taylor Rogers. We get a RH and a LH arm to help fill out the pen.

Come on now....you were all thinking the same thing, right?  

:)

 

[old nurse]

The last wild card spot is up for grabs. Maybe by the all star break standings will be more differentiated, but as it stands now these teams are as likely to be buyers as sellers. The market may be expensive. A player like Farmer might even fetch an AAA emergency starter 

[tony&rodney]

Always interesting to see what ideas people have for additions to the Twins roster. The guesses are difficult and we still have yet to see  names worth adding above those already within the organization.

[High heat]

I like Tyler Rogers if Giants fall apart, I also like the idea of Ashcroft if the Twins see a tweak or two they can make to get more results a mix of both Ryan and Ober.  
 

we will see where we are at in a month and where some of these teams are at.

[nicksaviking]

I'd be interested in Finnegan or Harvey, but I just don't see what the rest of these kinds of players accomplish. None of these guys, even the good relievers, make the Twins a World Series contender and isn't that what it's all about? The Twins have a roster chalk full of guys who are decent but not superb players I don't see why they need more. Unless the goal is simply to be a first round underdog again, they need to replace the current middling players with BETTER players. 

They need high upside swings. Either trade for a stud or someone who has stud potential, or roll the dice with the prospects who may have less likelihood of being that difference maker, but none the less at least have A chance.

 

[LambchoP]

Twins don't need anymore utility bats they need pitching. Starters and relievers. Would love to get Rodgers in our bullpen. Think we need a lefty a bit more though. I know we've got three right now but I don't trust any of them in close games, especially Theilbar and Funderburk.

[DJL44]

10 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

I'd be interested in Finnegan or Harvey, but I just don't see what the rest of these kinds of players accomplish. None of these guys, even the good relievers, make the Twins a World Series contender and isn't that what it's all about?

They are not a guaranteed playoff team. Keeping ahead of the Red Sox and Royals has value.

[nicksaviking]

26 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

They are not a guaranteed playoff team. Keeping ahead of the Red Sox and Royals has value.

If they aren't good enough to get into the playoffs without these low-key trade targets, they sure as hell aren't good enough to win a World Series. If the goal is only to make the playoffs, they need new leaders who will set the bar higher.

[DJL44]

29 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

If they aren't good enough to get into the playoffs without these low-key trade targets, they sure as hell aren't good enough to win a World Series. If the goal is only to make the playoffs, they need new leaders who will set the bar higher.

So you would rather miss the playoffs if they aren't a World Series favorite?

[Doctor Gast]

What we really need is a LHRP. (MIA) Tanner Scott will be well-procured but A.J. Pukk has been very solid in the BP. He'd be cheap to pick up.

One SP that has intrigued me lately is (CIN) Montas. I looked at Montas having the same path as Sonny Gray. Being the ace of OAK, going to NYY & having problems there, having injury problems & going to CIN to get some of those problems worked out. His injury problems are behind him, he's in his last year and wouldn't cost us anything. A prospect can be added to have CIN pay down his salary. Like Gray, MN could work wonders on his potential talents.

[nicksaviking]

11 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

So you would rather miss the playoffs if they aren't a World Series favorite?

I'm saying token playoff appearances do nothing for me. Theo Estrada and Graham Ashcroft may make it more likely that the team makes the playoffs but they don't make it more likely they'll win the World Series. If they aren't or can't trade for actual difference makers, call up the prospects instead of these non-impact trade suggestions. Even if there's only a slim chance those prospects turn out to be elite, at least there is a chance.

I would rather try to win the World Series and end up missing the playoffs than try to make the playoffs knowing my team has no shot at winning it all.

[tony&rodney]

21 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I would rather try to win the World Series and end up missing the playoffs than try to make the playoffs knowing my team has no shot at winning it all.

I understand what your frame of thought is on barely qualifying for the playoffs with a mediocre team and then watching that team get pummeled in the playoffs. It is worth remembering though that both Arizona and Texas were mediocre going into last year's playoffs. The first goal is always to get to the playoffs. Some of the deadline pickups who have made a difference were not exactly noteworthy either before or after their playoff performances.

There are some decent baseball players within the Twins organization and perhaps one of these may provide a dose of magic as opposed to picking up scrap that then performs as scrap. The weeks before the trade deadline are always interesting with speculation.

[DJL44]

26 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I'm saying token playoff appearances do nothing for me.

Getting the playoff money windfall helps the franchise. Getting Royce Lewis and the other young players experience in the playoffs helps the franchise. Plus, you can't win the World Series if you're sitting at home while other teams participate in the playoffs.

[mrcharlie]

Tyler Rodgers would be a great find, but to suggest the Twins go after another utility player makes no sense to me.  Our greatest need is OF depth in terms of offense.  Margot has shown signs of life lately but I don't trust his defense, and Castro is no better.  Larnauch is capable but needs opportunities to improve.

Farmer is dead weight.  Time to give Wallner another shot and move Farmer for a prospect or two.

[LA Vikes Fan]

None of these payers do a lot for me because I don't think they really address the 3 needs we have - a middle of the order LH bat to hit 4 or 5, a #3 or better starter controllable after 2024, and a solid or better LH late inning reliever. Those are the only players worth giving up much prospect capital for IMHO. 

I really hope the Twins try to see if they have players to fill any of those needs before July 20. I do think that giving Festa a start or 3 and calling up Funderburk was a step in that direction. I just don't think those guys are good enough yet to fill the bill. On the hitter, maybe Kepler goes back to May Kepler instead of June Kepler (April was fine, not great), or maybe Larnach can take the next step up, but the prognosis isn't good for either of those things to happen. I would really like to see Lee and maybe even Wallner get up and get some run at the MLB level before trading decisions are made. Maybe one of them can be that #5 LH hitter behind Castro, Correa, Lewis and Miranda (who should be hitting 4th every day alternating as either the DH, IB or 3B IMO). Find that guy with Santana, Buxton, and Jeffers hitting 6-8 and you have a really deep lineup.   

My prediction is the Twins either just roll with what they have or make a lower level trade for a LH reliever, The reliever would be someone like Matt Moore of the Angels, Jalen Beeks of Colorado, or maybe Chafin from Detroit but he probably requires an overpay. Detroit will and should deal him out of the division if the offered return is the same.  I could also see them trying to get Tyler Anderson from the Angels but I suspect the price is going to be way too high for 1.5 years of a solid to good  but not great LH starter.  I enjoy the deadline talk but I just don't see the Twins making much of a move this year.  

 

[bean5302]

I'd have my eyes on Snell and Ray. Robbie Ray threw 45 pitches in AAA on 6/23 so he could be back in MLB with 2-3 starts before the trade deadline. Snell is scheduled to make another rehab start in AAA today.

[JD-TWINS]

3 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

I'm saying token playoff appearances do nothing for me. Theo Estrada and Graham Ashcroft may make it more likely that the team makes the playoffs but they don't make it more likely they'll win the World Series. If they aren't or can't trade for actual difference makers, call up the prospects instead of these non-impact trade suggestions. Even if there's only a slim chance those prospects turn out to be elite, at least there is a chance.

I would rather try to win the World Series and end up missing the playoffs than try to make the playoffs knowing my team has no shot at winning it all.

Logic would tell one that nobody knows who is getting to, nor winning the World Series year to year…………the one sure bet is if a Team doesn’t make the Playoffs they probably aren’t winning the Series.

[nicksaviking]

20 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Logic would tell one that nobody knows who is getting to, nor winning the World Series year to year…………the one sure bet is if a Team doesn’t make the Playoffs they probably aren’t winning the Series.

We don't know which team will win the World Series each year, but I bet at the start of every post season we can accurately pick the 4-5 teams that have the talent to actually have a shot. All 12 teams do not have a reasonable chance at winning.

[mrtwinsfan]

5 hours ago, mrcharlie said:

Tyler Rodgers would be a great find, but to suggest the Twins go after another utility player makes no sense to me.  Our greatest need is OF depth in terms of offense.  Margot has shown signs of life lately but I don't trust his defense, and Castro is no better.  Larnauch is capable but needs opportunities to improve.

Farmer is dead weight.  Time to give Wallner another shot and move Farmer for a prospect or two.

move Farmer for a prospect or two.   You mean 1 or  2  Baseballs ?   most Farmer will get us is a  low level class A Longshot,   and Castro is no better, ?? L.O.L

[JD-TWINS]

5 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

We don't know which team will win the World Series each year, but I bet at the start of every post season we can accurately pick the 4-5 teams that have the talent to actually have a shot. All 12 teams do not have a reasonable chance at winning.

What oddsmaker on September 1st picked the D-Backs to be in the World Series in ‘23?? How about on October 3rd?

Again, if you don’t get in the Playoffs you have no chance to get to the Series. Once in, odd, unintended things can happen and injuries  also a have leveling effect.

Seldom do the “favorites” win since more and more teams are involved.

[nicksaviking]

14 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

What oddsmaker on September 1st picked the D-Backs to be in the World Series in ‘23?? How about on October 3rd?

Again, if you don’t get in the Playoffs you have no chance to get to the Series. Once in, odd, unintended things can happen and injuries  also a have leveling effect.

Seldom do the “favorites” win since more and more teams are involved.

The D-Backs didn't win the World Series, the loaded Rangers team won in 5 games, and that's the problem. The underdog D-Backs would have had to win FOUR series against significantly more talented teams to win it all.

I am beyond tired of the Twins doing just enough to get to the playoffs knowing they'll just about every time be the underdog. Get in and cross our fingers. They've largely done this the entire century and it has not worked. Last year was such a refreshing change of pace where while they weren't a favorite, they were good enough to get picked by some analysts to win it and they were at least a favorite over Toronto. The Twins need to improve the number of players with top end talent, not add more average players, or they're just going to be doing more of what hasn't worked for years.

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

The D-Backs didn't win the World Series, the loaded Rangers team won in 5 games, and that's the problem. The underdog D-Backs would have had to win FOUR series against significantly more talented teams to win it all.

I am beyond tired of the Twins doing just enough to get to the playoffs knowing they'll just about every time be the underdog. Get in and cross our fingers. They've largely done this the entire century and it has not worked. Last year was such a refreshing change of pace where while they weren't a favorite, they were good enough to get picked by some analysts to win it and they were at least a favorite over Toronto. The Twins need to improve the number of players with top end talent, not add more average players, or they're just going to be doing more of what hasn't worked for years.

The Diamondbacks directly knocked out the loaded Phillies and Dodgers teams to make it to the World Series in an era where teams have to play more series' than ever. 

The 2010 Giants won, the 2006 Cardinals (83-79 record) won. The 2001 Diamondbacks won. The 2003 Marlins won. The 1987 Twins won. There are plenty of good, but non-elite teams who win the World Series. The 1987 Twins wasn't even good. It was a mediocre team.

[IndianaTwin]

On 6/28/2024 at 12:38 PM, LA VIkes Fan said:

None of these payers do a lot for me because I don't think they really address the 3 needs we have - a middle of the order LH bat to hit 4 or 5, a #3 or better starter controllable after 2024, and a solid or better LH late inning reliever. Those are the only players worth giving up much prospect capital for IMHO. 

I really hope the Twins try to see if they have players to fill any of those needs before July 20. I do think that giving Festa a start or 3 and calling up Funderburk was a step in that direction. I just don't think those guys are good enough yet to fill the bill. On the hitter, maybe Kepler goes back to May Kepler instead of June Kepler (April was fine, not great), or maybe Larnach can take the next step up, but the prognosis isn't good for either of those things to happen. I would really like to see Lee and maybe even Wallner get up and get some run at the MLB level before trading decisions are made. Maybe one of them can be that #5 LH hitter behind Castro, Correa, Lewis and Miranda (who should be hitting 4th every day alternating as either the DH, IB or 3B IMO). Find that guy with Santana, Buxton, and Jeffers hitting 6-8 and you have a really deep lineup.   

My prediction is the Twins either just roll with what they have or make a lower level trade for a LH reliever, The reliever would be someone like Matt Moore of the Angels, Jalen Beeks of Colorado, or maybe Chafin from Detroit but he probably requires an overpay. Detroit will and should deal him out of the division if the offered return is the same.  I could also see them trying to get Tyler Anderson from the Angels but I suspect the price is going to be way too high for 1.5 years of a solid to good  but not great LH starter.  I enjoy the deadline talk but I just don't see the Twins making much of a move this year.  

 

The Twins do have Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Paddack, and Woods Richardson (plus Festa, Varland and others) under contract for 2025. This isn't to say that that rotation can't/should be improved, but given that July is always a sellers market, I'd rather only pay a premium for a half season than for 1.5 or 2.5 seasons.

Additionally, I think all three of these teams are such that they aren't ready to punt 2025, so I think they'd be reluctant to trade guys they have under control for next year. 

That said, I do agree with your prediction that the Twins do more tinkering than making a big splash.