Three NL Teams (and Six Players) the Twins Should Watch As the Trade Deadline Approaches

Looking at Baseball Prospectus's PECOTA system and their projected playoff odds for each team, the Giants (12.1%), Nationals (1.6%) and Reds (5.5%) are all longshots. Coming into the season, the Giants and Reds were expected to be playoff contenders, whereas the Nationals were fully expected to be cellar-dwellers in the NL East. Taking all things into consideration, I’m anticipating the Nationals and Giants to be sellers at the deadline, while the Reds will likely wait until the days leading up to the deadline to make any decisions.

San Francisco Giants (39-42)
Current Situation: Despite the low playoff odds, the Giants find themselves just three games back of an NL Wild Card spot. They made some splashes last offseason, acquiring Robbie Ray via trade, as well as Blake Snell, Matt Chapman, and Jung Hoo Lee via free agency. Unfortunately, Ray has yet to make a start; Snell has made six ineffective starts while battling injuries; Chapman has been solidly average; and Lee is out for the year with a shoulder injury. Outside of the names, the Giants are top-heavy in talent (Logan Webb, Camilo Doval, among others), but it quickly falls off after that.

Players to Watch: Thairo Estrada has two and a half years of team control remaining, and can play multiple positions, although he has only played at the keystone in 2024, which makes a good fit with the Twins platoon-heavy philosophy. Throughout his career, he’s spent time at every position except first base and catcher, while providing average production at the plate and even splits against left- and right-handed pitching. He’s had a bit of a down year, despite batted-ball and plate-discipline metrics around his career norms, but projection systems still see a league-average bat moving forward.

Tyler Rogers, twin brother of former Twins reliever Taylor Rogers, has been a very good weapon out of the bullpen and has a year of team control following 2024. The fit is obvious, and Rogers carries an elite 1.3% walk rate and good batted-ball data. The only true submariner in baseball, he's an extreme ground-ball pitcher.

Missing bats isn’t his specialty, but he still gets results, relying on one of the best sinkers in the game. He also throws a slider, which has previously been effective, but has been a bit less so in 2024.

Washington Nationals (38-42)
Current Situation: It’s surprising to see the Nationals in the hunt, just 2.5 games out of a playoff spot, and that can be attributed to one of the better rotations and bullpens in baseball… on the surface. Their top four starters have ERAs of 3.81, 3.13, 2.22, and 3.30, although their expected stats, peripherals, and projection models suggest some negative regression may be around the corner. To a lesser extent, the same could be said for the high-leverage bullpen arms, whereas their offense is one of the worst in the league--with only two qualified batters with a wRC+ above 91.

Players to Watch: The Nationals have three solid, right-handed relievers who are controllable through 2025 (Kyle Finnegan, Hunter Harvey, and Derek Law), not to mention Dylan Floro (…yep…), who is a free agent at season's end. To be honest, I’d be interested in acquiring any of these arms to supplement the Twins bullpen, but in the spirit of the exercise, I am going to keep an eye on Derek Law, specifically.

Other than an elite chase rate of 35%, nothing pops off the page, but that hasn’t stopped Law from being a productive medium-leverage arm over the last two season. He managed that even in 2023, pitching half his games in Great American Ballpark. A 15% K-BB% is fine, a 3.58/3.40 FIP/SIERA is fine, and the run values of his various pitches (ranging from 3 to -2) are, well, fine. And that’s the exact type of addition I want them to make in the bullpen. Splash elsewhere.

The Nationals have two cheap but uninspiring utility bats with team control through 2025, in Nick Senzel and Ildemaro Vargas. Both of these players have played multiple positions in the outfield and the infield, and each has a roughly league-average wRC+ in 2024. Senzel is better with the bat, and Vargas is better with the glove, but both Baseball Savant profiles are U-G-L-Y. Projection models like Vargas more than Senzel at the plate, but I can’t say I’d be overly thrilled if the Twins pursued either of these options.

Cincinnati Reds (37-43)
Current Situation: The Baltimore Orioles of the NL came into the season hoping to have a season like the one the actual Orioles are having. Instead, they are six games below .500 and 3.5 games out of a playoff spot. Despite playing half their games in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in all of baseball, their offense is in the bottom third of the league in runs per game, while their pitching staff has kept them in the hunt. Interestingly, they don’t have a single hitter who will be a free agent at season's end and, across the entire 40-man roster, there are only three players bound for the open market soon.

Players to Watch: This is a longshot, because he’s only 26 years old and has four years of team control left, but I wonder if Graham Ashcraft is a “change of scenery” candidate. There is a stark contrast in his home and road splits, including a 25-percent increase in home runs surrendered and an ERA 1.43 runs higher at GABP. On the road, Ashcraft looks to be a solid back-of-the-rotation arm, with room to improve if he can increase his extension and develop a plus pitch or two. If all else fails, he'd almost certainly be a good reliever. The more I read on this guy, the more intrigued I am. Ashcraft could almost certainly benefit from one of the better pitching development organization in baseball.

Lefty reliever Justin Wilson is one of the three who will be a free agent after the World Series, and is a great buy-low candidate. Expected stats aren’t predictive, but when your ERA is more than two times higher than your xERA, I think we can predict some positive regression. It’s a limited sample, but Savant (along with various projection models) likes Wilson’s under-the-hood data. 

The only names mentioned here that would be somewhat of a “splash” are Rogers and Ashcraft. The latter is certainly interesting, but if it were me, I’d rather see the Twins make a bigger play in the lineup or rotation and look to acquire less expensive names like Law and/or Wilson.

Do you find any of these names intriguing? Did I miss anyone from this group of teams that you’d rather see the team pursue?