Why are the Guardians so Good this year? Clasé, Kwan and Naylor.

[stringer bell]

For most of the 2020s, the Cleveland franchise has had one outstanding position player--José Ramirez--to go with their outstanding pitcher development. Ramirez could be pitched around because no one else really could hurt the opponent. That has changed to the point that Cleveland has a good offense to augment their pitching.

Josh Naylor has climbed from a so-so contributor to a likely All-Star. He's hitting very well this season and has clubbed 20 homers while driving in more than 50 runs. Second baseman Andés Giménez is a solid fielder and base runner and has hot streaks. His overall numbers are so-so, but he helps the offense and is a Gold Glover at second. Utility man David Fry has unexpectedly been a major plus with the bat and played everywhere but second base and shortstop. 

To top it all off, leadoff man Steven Kwan has been phenomenal. He missed a couple weeks with a muscle pull, but if he had enough plate appearances, he would/will be leading the major leagues in hitting by a lot. Kwan is hitting .390--the official leader is Ohtani at .321 and is 8-10 plate appearances short of qualifying. Not only that but his on-base average is .438 and he is slugging .575. His OPS would be second to Aaron Judge and ahead of Ohtani. Kwan has also won a Gold Glove and is speedy. The Guardians now put out a good lineup which should have a minimum of three and perhaps four All-Stars. 

 

[Craig Arko]

They’re going to be very tough to catch.

[bean5302]

They've also had the weakest schedule in MLB.
They're also 6-2 in extra innings
They're also 12-9 in one run games.

Their high end hitters have been massively lucky and are due for colossal regression
Kwan wOBA .443 vs. xwOBA .371 = -0.72 pts
Fry wOBA .408 vs. .364 = -0.44 pts
Ramirez wOBA .364 vs. .310 = -0.54 pts
Naylor wOBA .352 vs. .359 = +0.07 pts
Brennan wOBA .319 vs. .320 = +0.01 pts

But most of all, the Guardians are using weighted dice on their saving throws vs. reasonable outcomes.

They're going to finish the year in 3rd or 4th place in the AL Central.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

They will be tough to catch and it probably won't happen for the Twins. It is just one of those outlier seasons where it has gone right for Cleveland. Ramirez is a tremendous player but he's on pace for 41 HR / 145 RBI season. Naylor's on pace for 43 HR / 124 RBI. Clase is on pace for 52 saves.

The rest of the lineup is middling and their bullpen arms have been used a lot this season.

I can't recall a team being so dependent on three players.

Enjoy it for 2024. It won't happen again in 2025.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Maybe I'm not giving the Guardians enough credit. Admittedly, I dislike them as much as I dislike the Yankees. An annoying fan base and a roster full of pests and PITA's. 

[wabene]

Another great conversation starter from Stringer. I don't have much to add since I've only watched Cleveland when they were dismantling the Twins. Ramirez has more extra base hits than any other player since 2017. The mighty mite also has a mean haymaker, lol. 

I will say I'm glad the Central is ascending. Maybe we won't have to listen to the qualifiers anymore. I'm hoping KC, Cleveland and the Twins are all in it till the end.

[DJL44]

42 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

They're going to finish the year in 3rd or 4th place in the AL Central.

78 wins should be enough for 3rd place and they already have 49. That's a 29-58 pace (.333) the rest of the season which is worse than the Rockies have played. I doubt they finish below .500, too many wins already in the books.

[RpR]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

They're going to finish the year in 3rd or 4th place in the AL Central.

Yeah and Chicago will give the Twins a run for second behind Kansas City.😂

[Schmoeman5]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

They've also had the weakest schedule in MLB.
They're also 6-2 in extra innings
They're also 12-9 in one run games.

Their high end hitters have been massively lucky and are due for colossal regression
Kwan wOBA .443 vs. xwOBA .371 = -0.72 pts
Fry wOBA .408 vs. .364 = -0.44 pts
Ramirez wOBA .364 vs. .310 = -0.54 pts w
Naylor wOBA .352 vs. .359 = +0.07 pts
Brennan wOBA .319 vs. .320 = +0.01 pts

But most of all, the Guardians are using weighted dice on their saving throws vs. reasonable outcomes.

They're going to finish the year in 3rd or 4th place in the AL Central.

One of the best bullpens in baseball says different. Clase vs Duran or Jax. How about the regression for Twins hot hitters? Better get Wallner and Julien back. Solid defenders both. The analytics say so. Once a month this topic comes up. As if it's a mirage. They're not going anywhere. Has Minnesota beat Cleveland yet with that weak schedule? 

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, Schmoeman5 said:

One of the best bullpens in baseball says different. Clase vs Duran or Jax. How about the regression for Twins hot hitters? Better get Wallner and Julien back. Solid defenders both. The analytics say so. Once a month this topic comes up. As if it's a mirage. They're not going anywhere. Has Minnesota beat Cleveland yet with that weak schedule? 

The bullpen is not going to save a team which is likely going to finish the season with a bottom 1/3rd lineup and the worst rotation in baseball. Just a matter of time.

[KirbyDome89]

4 hours ago, bean5302 said:

They've also had the weakest schedule in MLB.
They're also 6-2 in extra innings
They're also 12-9 in one run games.

Their high end hitters have been massively lucky and are due for colossal regression
Kwan wOBA .443 vs. xwOBA .371 = -0.72 pts
Fry wOBA .408 vs. .364 = -0.44 pts
Ramirez wOBA .364 vs. .310 = -0.54 pts
Naylor wOBA .352 vs. .359 = +0.07 pts
Brennan wOBA .319 vs. .320 = +0.01 pts

But most of all, the Guardians are using weighted dice on their saving throws vs. reasonable outcomes.

They're going to finish the year in 3rd or 4th place in the AL Central.

A few weeks ago Cleveland had the hardest remaining schedule while the Twins had one of the easiest. Cleveland has since dropped to the 5th spot while the Twins are middle of the pack. I wouldn't hold out hope on SOS somehow rescuing the Twins. MN also has a higher winning % in one run games, even after dropping 3 straight last week. 

The best Twins hitters right now (Correa, Lewis, Miranda, Castro) are all due for regression via xwOBA as well. Are they immune?

[bean5302]

Just now, KirbyDome89 said:

A few weeks ago Cleveland had the hardest remaining schedule while the Twins had one of the easiest. Cleveland has since dropped to the 5th spot while the Twins are middle of the pack. I wouldn't hold out hope on SOS somehow rescuing the Twins. MN also has a higher winning % in one run games, even after dropping 3 straight last week. 

The best Twins hitters right now (Correa, Lewis, Miranda, Castro) are all due for regression via xwOBA as well. Are they immune?

SoS in the past. This is an topic about the Guardians, not about the Twins.

[KirbyDome89]

3 hours ago, Schmoeman5 said:

Once a month this topic comes up. As if it's a mirage.

People seem desperate to poke holes in Cleveland's performance to date (I still can't get over the blog post claiming umpiring has "given," them multiple Ws) but apparently have a massive blind spot when it comes to the hometown crew. 

[KirbyDome89]

11 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

SoS in the past. This is an topic about the Guardians, not about the Twins.

A snapshot of opponents total winning % means nothing, particularly when you're affecting said winning %. 

You predicted a 4th place finish. For that to happen teams like the Twins will need to catch and pass Cleveland, hence the question of whether the Twins are immune to all the pitfalls that await the Guardians. 

[Jocko87]

Was just watching Guards/Orioles pondering this and whadayaknow?  Here a perfect thread.

The thing that prompted me to be curious was watching them against old friend™️ Cade Povich, noted left handed pitcher.  First thought was, they let their lefties hit lefties.  Second thought, wait-they don't have a choice.  They are extremely left handed with their best hitters.  Therefore, third thought is take all the time you can trying to get Theilbar right and maybe this is part of the reason they are keeping lefties around.   They are all hitting lefties at well above career norms.

We know Ramirez is good, but he's never been 41hr/145 rbi good.  Naylor is big Papi remix?  Maybe, the numbers he is putting up with a .229 BABIP is cause for concern for a Twins fan.  David Fry a .955 OPS hitter?  Kwan a 1.025 OPS hitter with his .401 BABIP?  Regression is coming and it will hit in a big way.  They are looking pretty good against the Orioles tonight but a tougher schedule, regression, scouting and understanding the lefties need managed are all going to work against them. 

This race is far from over.  It would be nice to have a left handed starter to mix in somewhere though.  A Brent Hendrick spot start wouldn't be crazy if he's doing well at AAA.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Kwan and Larnach were college teammates.

Cleveland already lost Shane Bieber, and Triston McKenzie and Gavin Williams (has not appeared in MLB yet), are both pitching through tender elbows. 

I keep waiting for the rest of Cleveland's starting pitching to fall apart, but so far it hasn't.

Well, Carlos Carrasco is washed up, but the rest of them are competitive.

[FlyingFinn]

34 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

A Brent Hendrick spot start wouldn't be crazy if he's doing well at AAA.

You mean if he hadn't been injured for almost the entire year.

[Jocko87]

36 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

You mean if he hadn't been injured for almost the entire year.

They next play in August. He should be in the mix by then.

[Schmoeman5]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

The bullpen is not going to save a team which is likely going to finish the season with a bottom 1/3rd lineup and the worst rotation in baseball. Just a matter of time.

Pure speculation and wishful thinking. Same for the regression.  No solid facts. Just because they're not supposed to be doing this good doesn't mean they can't continue. They killed it in 2022, fell off last year and they're killing again this year. 1-9. What Twin starts for Cleveland? Correa at SS. And Lewis as DH because of Ramirez. Or if you want to flop them two.  That's it.

[tony&rodney]

7 hours ago, bean5302 said:

They're going to finish the year in 3rd or 4th place in the AL Central.

Really? Cleveland has some talent on their roster. I really like Kansas City but feel that Cleveland has the edge in pitching and in the field. It should be interesting. I am still expecting the Twins to win the division by a game.

[Jocko87]

43 minutes ago, Schmoeman5 said:

Pure speculation and wishful thinking. Same for the regression.  No solid facts. Just because they're not supposed to be doing this good doesn't mean they can't continue. They killed it in 2022, fell off last year and they're killing again this year. 1-9. What Twin starts for Cleveland? Correa at SS. And Lewis as DH because of Ramirez. Or if you want to flop them two.  That's it.

Would you like to talk linear, polynomial or multi-nominal logistic regression?  It's actually a thing, a highly predictive thing.  Does not mean it can't continue but most likely will not.  If you think the Guardians are setting a new baseline, well crap for all of us.  A far more likely outcome is that they won't put up a top 20 all time full season record. 

In baseball terms, quit talking crazy talk.  You would take Tyler Freeman or Miles Brennan over Kepler and Buxton?  Or Bo Naylor over Jeffers as a catcher?  You would not. That's just a start, all the 28 year old journeyman playing out of their minds have names too long to type.

They have some legit players, no doubt.  The Twins 40 man is miles deeper in talent.

 

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, Schmoeman5 said:

Pure speculation and wishful thinking. Same for the regression.  No solid facts. Just because they're not supposed to be doing this good doesn't mean they can't continue. They killed it in 2022, fell off last year and they're killing again this year. 1-9. What Twin starts for Cleveland? Correa at SS. And Lewis as DH because of Ramirez. Or if you want to flop them two.  That's it.

Just about all of them. Almost all the Twins position players start over Guardians position players.
C - Jeffers* > Naylor
1B - Santana < Naylor*
2B - Castro* > Gimenez
3B - Lewis* > Ramirez
SS - Correa* > Rocchio
LF - Larnach < Kwan*
CF - Buxton* > Freeman
RF - Kepler* > Brennan
DH - Miranda < Fry*

SP1 - Lopez < Bibee*
SP2 - Ryan* > Allen
SP3 - Paddack* > McKenzie
SP4 - Ober* > Lively
SP5 - Woods Richardson* > Carrasco
Cleveland's rotation ranks 28th of 30 teams in FIP.

The Guardians have almost no advantages in position players and rotation, but they do have an excellent bullpen. Unfortunately for Cleveland, even the bullpen is due for major regression.
Clease 0.72 ERA vs. 1.94 FIP
Gaddis 1.51 ERA vs. 2.22 FIP
Herrin 1.16 ERA vs. 2.53 FIP
Sandin 3.49 ERA vs. 4.10 FIP
Some of their pitchers have career ERA's better than their FIPs, but not to the extent showing so far. Their whole bullpen's ERA is 3.49 vs 3.89 FIP.

When it comes to hitting the Guardians again show massive, generally unsustainable splits.
No outs = wRC+ 92
1 out = wRC+ 125
2 outs = wRC+ 111
Empty = wRC+ 93
Runners on = wRC+ 131
RISP = wRC+ 139
The Guardians rank 20th in hard hit rate overall...

Regression for the Guardians is expected across the board in almost every area. In theory, the Guardians could just keep lucking out or they could have turned into a different team. It happens. Like Royce Lewis last year. He wasn't hitting balls well when he came up, but he just kept getting on base anyway. But Lewis got better and better and better and soon his expected production was right in line with the actual production. To have that happen with a player is pretty unusual. To have that happen team wide is unheard of.

[Parfigliano]

When is this CLE team regression supposed to kick in?  Before ASG?  After?

[FlyingFinn]

3 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

When is this CLE team regression supposed to kick in?  Before ASG?  After?

Yes.

[Schmoeman5]

8 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Just about all of them. Almost all the Twins position players start over Guardians position players.
C - Jeffers* > Naylor
1B - Santana < Naylor*
2B - Castro* > Gimenez
3B - Lewis* > Ramirez
SS - Correa* > Rocchio
LF - Larnach < Kwan*
CF - Buxton* > Freeman
RF - Kepler* > Brennan
DH - Miranda < Fry*

SP1 - Lopez < Bibee*
SP2 - Ryan* > Allen
SP3 - Paddack* > McKenzie
SP4 - Ober* > Lively
SP5 - Woods Richardson* > Carrasco
Cleveland's rotation ranks 28th of 30 teams in FIP.

The Guardians have almost no advantages in position players and rotation, but they do have an excellent bullpen. Unfortunately for Cleveland, even the bullpen is due for major regression.
Clease 0.72 ERA vs. 1.94 FIP
Gaddis 1.51 ERA vs. 2.22 FIP
Herrin 1.16 ERA vs. 2.53 FIP
Sandin 3.49 ERA vs. 4.10 FIP
Some of their pitchers have career ERA's better than their FIPs, but not to the extent showing so far. Their whole bullpen's ERA is 3.49 vs 3.89 FIP.

When it comes to hitting the Guardians again show massive, generally unsustainable splits.
No outs = wRC+ 92
1 out = wRC+ 125
2 outs = wRC+ 111
Empty = wRC+ 93
Runners on = wRC+ 131
RISP = wRC+ 139
The Guardians rank 20th in hard hit rate overall...

Regression for the Guardians is expected across the board in almost every area. In theory, the Guardians could just keep lucking out or they could have turned into a different team. It happens. Like Royce Lewis last year. He wasn't hitting balls well when he came up, but he just kept getting on base anyway. But Lewis got better and better and better and soon his expected production was right in line with the actual production. To have that happen with a player is pretty unusual. To have that happen team wide is unheard of.

Yeah. That regression will come in late October ALCS. Your lineup. Haha. That's funny. Mine.  Naylor over Jeffers/Vasquez.  Naylor over Santana. Gimenez over whoever. Castro is super utility. I'll take Fry. Correa beats Rocchio. Ramirez over Lewis. He's done it for 8 years not 8 weeks. Kwan over whomever. Brennan over Kepler.  Kepler has 4 good months over the last 4 years. And I'll take Freeman.  Buxton plays a great CF. His bat got lost since 22. Yep. Correa is the only one

[bean5302]

Just now, Schmoeman5 said:

Yeah. That regression will come in late October ALCS. Your lineup. Haha. That's funny. Mine.  Naylor over Jeffers/Vasquez.  Naylor over Santana. Gimenez over whoever. Castro is super utility. I'll take Fry. Correa beats Rocchio. Ramirez over Lewis. He's done it for 8 years not 8 weeks. Kwan over whomever. Brennan over Kepler.  Kepler has 4 good months over the last 4 years. And I'll take Freeman.  Buxton plays a great CF. His bat got lost since 22. Yep. Correa is the only one

I don't know why I bothered... 

[Schmoeman5]

1 hour ago, Jocko87 said:

Would you like to talk linear, polynomial or multi-nominal logistic regression?  It's actually a thing, a highly predictive thing.  Does not mean it can't continue but most likely will not.  If you think the Guardians are setting a new baseline, well crap for all of us.  A far more likely outcome is that they won't put up a top 20 all time full season record. 

In baseball terms, quit talking crazy talk.  You would take Tyler Freeman or Miles Brennan over Kepler and Buxton?  Or Bo Naylor over Jeffers as a catcher?  You would not. That's just a start, all the 28 year old journeyman playing out of their minds have names too long to type.

They have some legit players, no doubt.  The Twins 40 man is miles deeper in talent.

 

Linear. Polynomial. I'll take intestinal fortitude every time.

[Schmoeman5]

6 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I don't know why I bothered... 

Cleveland 3-2 over Baltimore. Ramirez another homer. 2 RBI.  He's got 69. In June. I doubt a Twin will get 69 RBI this WHOLE season. When he goes into full regression mode, he might wind up near his career high of 126 instead of the projected 145.  Haha 😄 

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

14 hours ago, bean5302 said:

The bullpen is not going to save a team which is likely going to finish the season with a bottom 1/3rd lineup and the worst rotation in baseball. Just a matter of time.

The wheels are likely to fall off at some point for Cleveland, but they've given themselves a pretty long leash. Most likely outcome, IMHO, is they win the division and have the worst record among the division champs and they get waxed in the post-season by the third wildcard, which I think will wind up being Houston.

[Trov]

12 hours ago, Schmoeman5 said:

Pure speculation and wishful thinking. Same for the regression.  No solid facts. Just because they're not supposed to be doing this good doesn't mean they can't continue. They killed it in 2022, fell off last year and they're killing again this year. 1-9. What Twin starts for Cleveland? Correa at SS. And Lewis as DH because of Ramirez. Or if you want to flop them two.  That's it.

So you would want Bo Naylor over both our catchers? I mean for offense sure over Vasquez, but over Jeffers? Naylor is hitting .565 OPS. You would take Freeman over Buck too? Sure numbers right now are close, Buck still better this year and shown much better upside over career. 

I am not saying our lineup is amazing, but Cleveland is very top heavy with huge holes at end, if Kwan, Fry, or Ramirez regress they will be in big trouble. Kwan is having a career year by an extreme level, career .780 OPS, that includes this year, which he is 1.020, that is unlikely to carry all year, with already having career high in HR.  Maybe he made career changing moves, but less likely.  Fry there is a reason he is 28 and never played a full MLB season, expect regression to his norm too. Ramirez is doing what his career average is, but if Kwan and or Fry regress to career norms, there offense is in trouble. It is possible they carry it all year though.

Their starters have not been good, but their pen has been great.  If they do not get more from the starters, it is likely the pen will start to falter near end of year.  Happened with Clase last year.  He is on pace for similar usage, and number of saves, but he blew 12 saves last year.  On pace to be a little better for that, but he had 6 blown saves July on last year. 6 before July where this year only 3.  Point is, if he slips with over use or other pen guys, and offense from their top 4 guys, they could go on a poor stretch.  

Will they, time will tell.