Why are the Guardians so Good this year? Clasé, Kwan and Naylor.

[chpettit19]

Confused as to why so many people are confused by Cleveland being good. This team didn't come out of nowhere. Last year is the only year since 2016 that they weren't first or 2nd in the Central. Their W-L matches their pythag W-L. This has been a consistently good team for years. Are they going to win 100+ games? I wouldn't bet on that. But neither are the Twins.

Cleveland has 50 wins with 86 games to go. If they play .500 ball the rest of the way (which isn't unreasonable at all) they end up with 93 wins. The Twins have 43 wins with 84 games to go. To get to 93 wins they need to go 50-34 the rest of the way. That's a 98 win pace. The Twins have their work cut out for them. If I had to bet my life on one team right now I'll take the Twins squeaking out the division, but I'm not confident about that at all. Cleveland finishing 3rd or 4th in the division is an incredible prediction. And that's a bet I'd be very confident taking the other side on.

[Bodie]

20 hours ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

They will be tough to catch and it probably won't happen for the Twins. It is just one of those outlier seasons where it has gone right for Cleveland. Ramirez is a tremendous player but he's on pace for 41 HR / 145 RBI season. Naylor's on pace for 43 HR / 124 RBI. Clase is on pace for 52 saves.

The rest of the lineup irs middling and their bullpen arms have been used a lot this season.

I can't recall a team being so dependent on three players.

Enjoy it for 2024. It won't happen again in 2025.

Roll back the years in your last sentence, and could have (and has ) been posted for most of the last decade.  

Might be time to admit that this isn't a fluke, but an honest result.  Wish I could quantify what they are doing, but I've simply accepted that when spring training ends I can look at Cleveland's roster and figure it for ~.500 team, maybe just below (75-80 wins).  Add 8 to 10 wins, just because it's Cleveland.  Thought it was more a Terry Francona-thing, but if it is, it seems to be a long-lasting thing!

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

6 minutes ago, Bodie said:

Roll back the years in your last sentence, and could have (and has ) been posted for most of the last decade.  

Might be time to admit that this isn't a fluke, but an honest result.  Wish I could quantify what they are doing, but I've simply accepted that when spring training ends I can look at Cleveland's roster and figure it for ~.500 team, maybe just below (75-80 wins).  Add 8 to 10 wins, just because it's Cleveland.  Thought it was more a Terry Francona-thing, but if it is, it seems to be a long-lasting thing!

Yeah, I thought losing Francona would be the final nail in their coffin.

Prior years, it was easier to see it as an honest result because their starting pitching was so good. This year, it isn't as good. They have a bullpen, that across the board, is overused but still putting up elite numbers and their line-up is ridiculously top heavy.

I don't have any delusions that they will fall short of the AL Central crown. But it ends there for them. They're simply not as good as the Yankees, Orioles, or Mariners.

[chpettit19]

7 minutes ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

Yeah, I thought losing Francona would be the final nail in their coffin.

Prior years, it was easier to see it as an honest result because their starting pitching was so good. This year, it isn't as good. They have a bullpen, that across the board, is overused but still putting up elite numbers and their line-up is ridiculously top heavy.

I don't have any delusions that they will fall short of the AL Central crown. But it ends there for them. They're simply not as good as the Yankees, Orioles, or Mariners.

I don't know that their pen is super overused. They're 11th in relief innings. Higher than they'd like, I'm sure, but they only have 18 more pen innings on the year than the Twins do. Less than an out per game. They'd probably like to slow their usage of Clase, but he only has 3 innings more than Jax.

[Schmoeman5]

2 hours ago, Trov said:

So you would want Bo Naylor over both our catchers? I mean for offense sure over Vasquez, but over Jeffers? Naylor is hitting .565 OPS. You would take Freeman over Buck too? Sure numbers right now are close, Buck still better this year and shown much better upside over career. 

I am not saying our lineup is amazing, but Cleveland is very top heavy with huge holes at end, if Kwan, Fry, or Ramirez regress they will be in big trouble. Kwan is having a career year by an extreme level, career .780 OPS, that includes this year, which he is 1.020, that is unlikely to carry all year, with already having career high in HR.  Maybe he made career changing moves, but less likely.  Fry there is a reason he is 28 and never played a full MLB season, expect regression to his norm too. Ramirez is doing what his career average is, but if Kwan and or Fry regress to career norms, there offense is in trouble. It is possible they carry it all year though.

Their starters have not been good, but their pen has been great.  If they do not get more from the starters, it is likely the pen will start to falter near end of year.  Happened with Clase last year.  He is on pace for similar usage, and number of saves, but he blew 12 saves last year.  On pace to be a little better for that, but he had 6 blown saves July on last year. 6 before July where this year only 3.  Point is, if he slips with over use or other pen guys, and offense from their top 4 guys, they could go on a poor stretch.  

Will they, time will tell. 

See. This is why I love TD. Every week there's an article about some Twin player and how GREAT they are. Early on it was Jeffers. He's the next Johnny Bench. Then Kepler got hot.  He's going to the HOF. Best RF in Twins history. Then Lewis and Correa feasted on the Rockies and A's pitching. Recall the article "getting fat"? Then Castro.  Who was let go by the Tigers.  Lewis might hit 100 homers at this pace. There won't be any regression there. Greatest Player in history. Blah blah blah. Correa with 10 seeing eye singles in a week is just CRUSHING EVERY ball. It's BS. Correa better than Witt or Gunderson or Seager. He might be better than Bichette. There's even articles telling us how fortunate we all are to have Vasquez as the 1A catcher. And even though he hits about as good as roadkill tastes. His defense shines. Oh and Margot and Farmer. Those slow starts weren't normal. They're good to go now.But if it's an opponent. There's going to be regression. Its just a fluke with Fry. Kwan can't keep this up. Ramirez, has to come back to earth. 3 guys top heavy.  Naylor can't hit 40 homers. The analytics say so. He's bucking the trend. Brennan sucks, Gimenez and Rocchio are weak up the middle. Starting pitching will implode soon. Cleveland fans are as bad as Yankee fans. Minnesota nice? More like Minnesota sour grapes

 

[TFRazor]

Cleveland's never going to replace the yankees on my Pedestal of Disdain™️, but they do have a nice cozy spot in my Display Case of Dislike™️

[TwinsDr2021]

22 hours ago, bean5302 said:

They're going to finish the year in 3rd or 4th place in the AL Central.

They are 15 games ahead of 4th place with 86 to go, and it isn't like the the 4th place team is Houston, Texas, Baltimore or Boston.  They are 8 and 9 games ahead of 2nd and 3rd, while it is possible they could fall as far as 3rd I highly doubt that either.

[Trov]

21 hours ago, Schmoeman5 said:

See. This is why I love TD. Every week there's an article about some Twin player and how GREAT they are. Early on it was Jeffers. He's the next Johnny Bench. Then Kepler got hot.  He's going to the HOF. Best RF in Twins history. Then Lewis and Correa feasted on the Rockies and A's pitching. Recall the article "getting fat"? Then Castro.  Who was let go by the Tigers.  Lewis might hit 100 homers at this pace. There won't be any regression there. Greatest Player in history. Blah blah blah. Correa with 10 seeing eye singles in a week is just CRUSHING EVERY ball. It's BS. Correa better than Witt or Gunderson or Seager. He might be better than Bichette. There's even articles telling us how fortunate we all are to have Vasquez as the 1A catcher. And even though he hits about as good as roadkill tastes. His defense shines. Oh and Margot and Farmer. Those slow starts weren't normal. They're good to go now.But if it's an opponent. There's going to be regression. Its just a fluke with Fry. Kwan can't keep this up. Ramirez, has to come back to earth. 3 guys top heavy.  Naylor can't hit 40 homers. The analytics say so. He's bucking the trend. Brennan sucks, Gimenez and Rocchio are weak up the middle. Starting pitching will implode soon. Cleveland fans are as bad as Yankee fans. Minnesota nice? More like Minnesota sour grapes

 

You did not answer any of the questions I posed to you.  I never said the whole roster is bester than Cleveland, but you said only Lewis and CC would be better than the players Cleveland put out there, and Lewis is basically a tie with Ramirez is a tie.  I did not say Jeffers is the best catcher in the league, but you would take Bo Naylor a guy with a .OPS 604 over Jeffers?  I would it is a toss up between Naylor and Vasquez, but I would take Jeffers over Naylor, at least for now, maybe down road Naylor gets better, but this year no way would I trade Naylor for Jeffers straight up to finish out the year.  I would not trade Buck for Freeman straight up either.  I would take Kwan over any of our OF right now, but I would expect some regression for him, just based on his history.  I am not saying Kepler is amazing or anything, but he is on his career average, so not likely to regress at this point. 

I would say overall there are players that I would clearly take from Cleveland to put into this line up over who we have, and about 3 that I would take from Twins to put on Cleveland as an upgrade, and 2 to 3 are pretty much a toss up at this point.  Overall close matched lineup, but Cleveland has several guys putting up career type numbers, Kwan by far, Fry by far, and Josh Naylor has already tied career high in HR. 

In terms of Twins, I do not think any are having career years, outside Lewis, but he has never played a full year so hard to decide what his norm may be. Most of the Twins hitters are near their career norm it would seem.  Maybe Castro a little, but not much off what he did last year. 

So I ask again, you would want Bo Naylor over Jeffers?  You would want Freeman over Buck? Specifically for this year alone.  

[Schmoeman5]

1 hour ago, Trov said:

You did not answer any of the questions I posed to you.  I never said the whole roster is bester than Cleveland, but you said only Lewis and CC would be better than the players Cleveland put out there, and Lewis is basically a tie with Ramirez is a tie.  I did not say Jeffers is the best catcher in the league, but you would take Bo Naylor a guy with a .OPS 604 over Jeffers?  I would it is a toss up between Naylor and Vasquez, but I would take Jeffers over Naylor, at least for now, maybe down road Naylor gets better, but this year no way would I trade Naylor for Jeffers straight up to finish out the year.  I would not trade Buck for Freeman straight up either.  I would take Kwan over any of our OF right now, but I would expect some regression for him, just based on his history.  I am not saying Kepler is amazing or anything, but he is on his career average, so not likely to regress at this point. 

I would say overall there are players that I would clearly take from Cleveland to put into this line up over who we have, and about 3 that I would take from Twins to put on Cleveland as an upgrade, and 2 to 3 are pretty much a toss up at this point.  Overall close matched lineup, but Cleveland has several guys putting up career type numbers, Kwan by far, Fry by far, and Josh Naylor has already tied career high in HR. 

In terms of Twins, I do not think any are having career years, outside Lewis, but he has never played a full year so hard to decide what his norm may be. Most of the Twins hitters are near their career norm it would seem.  Maybe Castro a little, but not much off what he did last year. 

So I ask again, you would want Bo Naylor over Jeffers?  You would want Freeman over Buck? Specifically for this year alone.  

Yes and yes I would. Even if Buxton who looks like he's going on one of his hot streaks and Jeffers is coming on the last 6 games. Too many times they just disappear for long stretches. 

[Riverbrian]

On 6/24/2024 at 6:35 PM, Jocko87 said:

First thought was, they let their lefties hit lefties.  Second thought, wait-they don't have a choice.  They are extremely left handed with their best hitters.

Yep... They started all of their left handed bats against Povich and won the game 3-2. Kwan, Gimenez, Brennen, Schneeman, Naylor and Naylor all started the game and those 6 are every single pure left handed hitter on the roster. 

Starting the game on the bench for that game:

Rocchio(S): Primary SS

Freeman(R)

Hedges(R): Backup catcher

Rodriquez (R): sent down shortly afterwards

They don't appear to be messing around with platoons. I'm sure they make left/right decisions game by game but the left/right thing doesn't appear to define those game by game decisions.  

[Aerodeliria]

What strikes me about these posts is that if we were discussing the Twins having several career years and being in front by eight games over Cleveland, there would be a lot less talk about regression, falling off the pace and schedule weakness.

'The next month or two will signal the collapse' talk has yet to put even a dent in Cleveland's lead. Maybe Cleveland's players will fall off the pace some, but overtaking a team who has held first place for a long stretch is often very difficult to do. Their confidence is high and they are finding ways to win. They've beaten the Orioles and the Yankees... something the Twins can't say...

[tarheeltwinsfan]

On 6/24/2024 at 1:25 PM, Craig Arko said:

They’re going to be very tough to catch.

I think I can. I think I can.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

On 6/24/2024 at 1:26 PM, bean5302 said:

They've also had the weakest schedule in MLB.
They're also 6-2 in extra innings
They're also 12-9 in one run games.

Their high end hitters have been massively lucky and are due for colossal regression
Kwan wOBA .443 vs. xwOBA .371 = -0.72 pts
Fry wOBA .408 vs. .364 = -0.44 pts
Ramirez wOBA .364 vs. .310 = -0.54 pts
Naylor wOBA .352 vs. .359 = +0.07 pts
Brennan wOBA .319 vs. .320 = +0.01 pts

But most of all, the Guardians are using weighted dice on their saving throws vs. reasonable outcomes.

They're going to finish the year in 3rd or 4th place in the AL Central.

At the halfway point in a season, the strength of the first half schedule was important in determining the half-way standings. The remaining schedule weighs heavily in deciding where a team finishes the year.  How does the Twins' strength of remaining schedule compare to the Guardians' remaining strength of schedule? 

[bean5302]

1 minute ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

At the halfway point in a season, the strength of the first half schedule was important in determining the half-way standings. The remaining schedule weighs heavily in deciding where a team finishes the year.  How does the Twins' strength of remaining schedule compare to the Guardians' remaining strength of schedule? 

Tough to say. The future SoS has a lot to do with how their opponents will perform in the future.

[Craig Arko]

27 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

I think I can. I think I can.

Heart attack. Heart attack.

Omigod the pain…

[Trov]

On 6/26/2024 at 10:09 AM, Schmoeman5 said:

Yes and yes I would. Even if Buxton who looks like he's going on one of his hot streaks and Jeffers is coming on the last 6 games. Too many times they just disappear for long stretches. 

Interesting way of building a team, you would rather have a guy with -0.2 bWAR so far this year over a guy with 1.8 bWAR, and guy with 0.8 bWAR over a guy with 1.7 bWAR so far this season.  But if that is how you feel okay.  I mean even Vasquez has same bWAR as Bo Naylor.  I doubt many would swap Bo Naylor for Jeffers straight up and consider it a win for the Twins.