Does Pablo Lopez’s First Month Warrant Any Concern?

[Theodore Tollefson]

Pablo Lopez has had struggles throughout his first six starts leading some to end early due to one bad inning. What are the sources of these bad innings and are they enough to be concerned for his future?

A month into the 2024 season, Pablo Lopez has not pitched as sharply as he did a year ago. Through his first six starts, Lopez has complied a 4.83 ERA, 3.97 FIP, ERA+ of 89, and has allowed six home runs through 31 ⅔  innings of work. 

But he’s also kept opponents to a .220 batting average, struck out hitters 29.4% of the time, and only walked seven batters compiling a 5.6% walk rate. Not all his stats have warranted reasons for concern on paper, but his last two starts against the White Sox and Angels have not been pretty. 

Lopez exited his start against the White Sox early pitching only through the fourth inning, where he imploded giving up two hits, including a home run to Eloy Jimenez, two walks, and a throwing error trying to pick off Danny Mendick. Up until the fourth inning, Lopez had been cruising through the game, but that bad inning doubled his pitch count from 38 to 76, and he was pulled early.

Things played out similarly for Lopez Sunday against the Angels. He was perfect through the first four innings of the game, then come the fifth inning, everything changed.

The Angels put together a two-out rally with a walk and four hits, including back-to-back home runs by Luis Rengifo and Nolan Schanuel, which brought Lopez’s pitch total from 60 to 87.

There are stretches in games where Lopez is showing his dominant side, Sunday being a perfect example, but it’s only taken one bad inning to have him exit his starts early. So what is Lopez doing that is giving way for hitters to make their at-bats more successful against him? 

There might be two indicators for Lopez’s regressions early this season; the pitches in his arsenal hitters are having more success against and how much harder they are hitting those pitches. 

A whopping 47.6% of his pitches that hitters have made contact with have been hit at 95 MPH or faster. However, his hard-hit percentage has declined over each game as only five of his pitches in play Sunday against the Angels were hit over 95 MPH. This was down from seven against the White Sox on April 23 and six against the Orioles on April 17.

Regardless, his hard-hit percentage is up 12.8% from where it was throughout the 2023 season. His hard-hit rate is currently among the bottom 15 out of 130 starting pitchers qualified in MLB but it’s still lower than MLB’s current ERA leader and former Twin, Jose Berrios, whose hard-hit rate is in the bottom 10 of the league at 48.5%. The answer to why this is the case for Lopez could be the pitches in his arsenal that are not showing favorable success across his six starts.

Of the five pitches in Lopez’s arsenal, hitters have completed batting averages of over .300 on three of them; his sweeper (.304 opponents BA), curveball (.333), and sinker (.429). In the previous two seasons, Lopez has had only one pitch that hitters have had a batting average over .300, his cutter in 2022 which had a .321 opponent average, which he’s since stopped throwing since joining the Twins. 

Lopez’s sweeper has been used the second most this year behind his fastball as he’s thrown it a total of 107 times. He still is getting a good whiff rate against hitters with this pitch at 36% but they are still seven for 23 with one home run. Fortunately, Lopez’s only home run allowed on the pitch came on Opening Day when Maikel Garica tagged one in the bottom of the first.

His curveball, which Lopez has thrown 51 times, is showing similar results as hitters have a 42.1% whiff rate when they miss the pitch. But in the 12 at-bats Lopez has used the pitch to get the hitters out with it, they have gotten hits four times. The one home run he surrendered on this pitch was last Tuesday against Jiminez. During Sunday’s start, Lopez threw his curve seven times getting one of his eight strikeouts on the pitch, but the other six times, his curveball never landed in the strike zone.

Finally, there’s Lopez’s sinker which has had the most alarming results against hitters. It’s the pitch he’s thrown the fewest amount of times (27) out of any this season, but when it has been thrown, hitters are licking their chops and making nothing but contact on it. It’s the only pitch he has had zero swings and misses with and even with limited use, batters are still three for seven against it. 

Hitters also have had their highest success getting hard contact off of Lopez’s pitches as only two of his sinkers this season have been hit below the 95 mph threshold that qualifies a ball for a hard hit. 

These three pitches have alarming numbers next to them. His breaking stuff with his sweeper and curveball is showing signs of improvement as the season has progressed, but whatever is going on with Lopez’s sinker is the most notable sign of his struggles early this season. Despite his limited use of the pitch, it’s lining up directly into hitter's wheelhouse and no matter what Lopez tries, it has yet to get past any hitter's bat once. 

If Lopez works on the struggles he has with these pitches between starts, the results with his hard-hit rate may change in his favor. His only season where his hard-hit rate was remotely close to 40% was in 2019 when it was at 36.9%. 

Despite the flaws in these six starts, there are still stats showing the best is yet to come for Lopez in 2024. His strikeout-to-walk ratio is higher through six starts this season than it was last year as it currently sits at 5.29 compared to 5.11 through six in 2023. Additionally, his WHIP sits at 1.04 which is tied with teammate Joe Ryan and Berrios for 15th-best in all of baseball. 

So do these early season struggles with three of Lopez’s five pitches and how frequently batters are making hard contact off them warrant real concern from fans? No. Lopez has had slow starts to his seasons before and has still bounced back with his best starts in the summer. These are things for Twins fans to keep an eye on when watching him on the mound and if his track record holds up, they’ll see better results all-around.
 

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[Patzky]

One report from the dugout indicated that Pablo wasn't having pitch issues but 'concentration' problems during the Sox game. It's nothing new for Twins pitchers to have the wheels suddenly fall off for an inning, see Sonny Gray. 

 

Pablo's a smart guy and he should be able to overcome this.. but Jorge Lopez showed us how important the mental issues can be. Let's hope the now hard to find reports about Pablo's concentration are a one time thing.. the catchers can certainly help and hopefully aren't intimidated by Pablo's status in doing so.

 

Warm weather welcome!

[Karbo]

He just has to locate a little better. Too many pitches in the "whoop em" zone. I see no need to worry this early on.

[Peter]

Pablo will be fine! 

[Patzky]

One of the couple of guys on this team.. he "Has" to be. Probably Jeffers and Jax are the others..

[gunnarthor]

He's a good pitcher, he'll be fine. All pitchers have good/bad streaks. Unless he's injured, there's nothing to worry about. 

[Linus]

25 minutes ago, Karbo said:

He just has to locate a little better. Too many pitches in the "whoop em" zone. I see no need to worry this early on.

This. He’s missed a couple pitches here and there and have really cost him. There also have been a couple plays that could have been made behind him that weren’t. I’ve watched most of his starts and the only thing I have noticed is that it seems like he doesn’t throw his change up as much as before. 

[arby58]

It's interesting to note that starts 5 and 6 for Pablo last year were messy as well - 5 earned runs in 4 innings pitched in start 5 and 6 earned runs in 6 innings pitched in start 6. No doubt it's a coincidence, but he bounced back nicely after that with a couple of quality starts. Even so, his 9th start was a dud against the Dodgers (not the only pitcher to have that happen against them), where he gave up 5 earned runs in 4 2/3rds of an inning. Every pitcher will have his rough patches.

[Doctor Gast]

Concerned maybe, worried no way. He'll figure it out. As the temps warm up so will he.

[David Maro]

He needs to skip a turn,this blow up inning has happened 4 of 6 starts.It seems to be with 2 outs in the inning as well.Also you can see it coming and Maki should see it and go for visit.Maybe Rocco and Maki think its Pablo,he will get out of it.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

When you look at the underlying stats very similar to last year.  Personally not worried at all.  Needs to get into a groove.  Still our #1 pitcher and its not even a question.   

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

Pablo should probably just scrap the sinker. A .420 batting average against with a 1,000 slugging pct is just not useable. Zero whiffs, 71.4% hard hit, 96.5 mph exit velocity all suggest that it's simply a bad pitch.

Interestingly, while his best pitch (by far) has been the 4-seamer but it's also the pitch that is really tanking his hard hit rate. That pitch has a 64.5% hard hit rate, but he's getting away with all that hard contact (.125 BA, .333 SLG) because those batted balls are often either towering flyballs or grounders. 15 of the 31 batted balls on his 4-seam have a launch angle of over 40 degrees, and another 11 of those batted balls have a launch angle under 10 degrees (generally a groundball since they usually don't leave the infield). 

Batted ball metrics suggest he's gotten fairly unlucky results on the sweeper (.522 SLG vs .295 xSLG, .462 BABIP, 28.6% hard hit), and most of that damage came in his first two starts, including this "double" from Bobby Witt. However, as others have suggested he should probably stop throwing it in the middle of the zone so often. 

[nova_twins]

He's fine. His command gets a little spotty at times, happened last year to varying degrees. 

[Road trip]

I hope it is a minor blip, and not a foreshadowing of the season to come.  But that's a hope.

Lots and lots and lots of starting pitchers are great for a year or two.  Very few are great for a half decade.  Those rare pitchers that are great for a full decade are usually Hall of Famers.  The difference in those who can sustain their success???  I honestly don't know... health is certainly part of it, but other factors must be involved as well.

Pablo is currently in category 1, great for a year or two.  I want to believe he will reach category 2, great for a half decade.  Might get there, might not.  Johan hit that mark, as did Viola a few decades ago.  I'd take a good half decade in a second, because it is rare.

We all want to believe in his potential for sustained greatness, obviously, but only time will reveal what will play out.

 

 

[bean5302]

I expect Lopez to be the kind of pitcher he's been historically, and I expect a lot of the concern here is from the constantly hyped and equally ridiculous "Cy Young Favorite" trope after his playoff performances last year made fan sites lose their minds projecting him to take about 17 steps forward for 2024.

Lopez Career:
3.90 ERA, 3.66 FIP, 3.62 xFIP

Previous 3 seasons (2021-2023):
3.57 ERA, 3.47 FIP, 3.40 xFIP

Nowhere near Cy Young consideration, but definitely a guy you want starting in the playoffs.

[h2oface]

Looking at what Sonny Gray is doing, it looks like they extended the wrong guy. 
 

Lopez is 41-41 career with about a 4 ERA. Pablo Day Lopez is what he is. The media hype is the problem. They wanted an ace so they manufactured one, and way too premature. 

[LonelyseatinMOA]

I'm not concerned yet. As far as his sinker goes, I think people are getting a little too hasty for calls to scrap it. It makes sense that its numbers aren't very good for two reasons. 1. he doesn't throw it a lot and this could be a case of the SSS 2. He usually throws it behind in counts where you'd expect him to give up the most damage anyway 

[Doctor Wu]

Good article and analysis. That's one reason I like Twins Daily so much. Nevertheless, I'm a wee bit concerned about Pablo. At the start of the season it seemed like many people were hailing him as a Cy Young candidate. Well, not so fast. As others have noted, he's a very intelligent pitcher and aware of his strengths and weaknesses. I'm no analyst or pitching guru, so all I can do is hope he tinkers with his pitch mix the right way and starts missing more bats.