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Posted

Um going to expand on something @Riverbriancommented on. That is, the veteran depth approach by the FO. I think the way 2022 ended really affected the approach of the FO. At the end of that season, they were basically playing a AAA lineup many games, even starting an entire LH hitting OF against LHP at times.

I think this is important context.

They built REAL DEPTH in to the 2023 team and we saw the positive results of doing so. They wanted to do so again for 2024, as best they could, with a more limited budget. I'm NOT being an apologist, but take a longer view to their approach.

1] I'm a big believer in Kirilloff. I think he's warranting that belief now that his wrist is healthy. I think a healthy, still young, Miranda might have a future with the Twins still. But both came in to 2024 recovering from injuries. SO, they sign Santana with hopes of one more solid season in the sun.

2] They traded for Margot instead of resigning Taylor because he was holding out for a bigger deal similar to other FA signings. COULD they have just gone with Castro, and Martin, and Helman, and Keirsey? Yes. Castro is an OK CF, Martin and Helman played about a THIRD of a full season due to injury and Keirsey spent most of the year at AA. So rather than just TRUST the prospects, they wanted a replacement for Taylor as the FIRST LINE of defense, pun somewhat intended. 

3] Farmer was an underrated cog in the 2023 team. He did a good job. Even though he was an expensive "bring back" for 2024, his presence makes some sense based on depth, and his RH bat against LHP, and his ability to fill in across the dirt.

Now, we can debate all day long as to the wisdom of the FO's approach to having veterans as the FIRST LINE of reinforcements rather than just trusting in the kids and hope for the best. There IS a method to their madness. Had they had more $ to work with, I think they would have gone a different direction with most, if not all, of the additions they made.

Again, while their approach, especially with a lowered payroll, makes sense, that lowered payroll situation ABSOLUTELY offers up debate ad to whether their approach was the right one for 2024. I mean, just on paper, everything they did makes some sense.

IMO, with the limited payroll, they had a #1 priority.  And that priority was to add a decent, solid, competent SP. If they simply couldn't pull another "rabbit out of the hat" type of deal to add an Odorizzi, a Gray, or a Lopez, they should have AT LEAST added, oh I don't know, a Wacha FA, just to pull a name out of the air.

The Polanco trade still makes some sense in regard to adding a potentially solid pen arm, and a top prospect, but DeScalfini should have been nothing more than an afterthought, at best. 

I wasn't a fan of the Santana signing, and am still not. I believe they would have better off trusting/hoping for a healthy AK/Miranda platoon, believed Julien might move there if Lee proved ready, or even dug down to AAA and let him get a shot if everything else goes awry. I love and appreciate good defense. But you can't give 1B over to a glove only player. [They also could have retained Solano for next to nothing as an option].

They should have trusted Castro in CF, trusted that Martin was close, and still have Helman and Keirsey as fall back options that might not stink.

Despite a bad start to the season, I admit to being torn regarding Farmer being brought back. But without him, the cupboard is a bit bare for utility unless they were willing to trust Helman and Prato as deeper reserve options behind Castro and Farmer.

But even if we accept the Polanco trade as is...and DeScalfini was included...Farmer, Margot, and Santana are a combined $14+ M. Add just a couple $M and you probably have one of several competent, middle quality arms for the rotation. 

I think adding that arm, and being forced to throw caution to the wind, somewhat, in regard to positional depth and trusting in the system depth and run with it, or run THROUGH IT as necessary, would have been the smarter move.

The principal idea of veteran depth makes a ton of sense. But if your choice is a DECENT arm for the rotation, and trust in the kids position wise, or DON'T add that arm and play along the margins for questionable veteran player depth, I'd go all day long with the DECENT arm addition.

Posted
8 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Sign and trade?

Is that even a thing in MLB?

 

Yes. Farmer was primarily viewed as a non-tender guy due to the cost. Once the Twins somewhat surprisingly tendered him a contract, the expectation was that Farmer would likely be traded due to the tight position player market.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/11/mlbtr-poll-should-the-twins-trade-kyle-farmer.html

Even Farmer himself was surprised he remained on the roster and wasn't traded before the start of the season.

Posted
2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Master of deleting all context strikes again. The claim made was that this team would be performing better if Kepler hadn't been replaced by Wallner, Santana, Castro, and Farmer. I didn't say anything about the sample size or the next 50 games. The other poster claimed this team would be performing better right now with Kepler. Then they tried to use his career numbers against the other guy's season numbers. Pretty sure their season numbers are small sample size as well. Comparing Kepler's career while ignoring how he's performed all spring and in his small regular season sample size while doing the opposite and only using the other 4's small regular season sample size while ignoring their careers is nonsense.

No, Kepler won't OPS+ -56 all season. But that's the player that was hurt. Does anyone think Wallner, Santana (I actually do expect him to suck all year), Castro, and Farmer are going to continue with their terrible OPS+ numbers all year? I would make a very substantial bet that nobody is expecting that. So it was a bad argument. Kepler was one of the guys sucking so him being replaced by other guys sucking wasn't actually a downgrade. If you want to talk about career numbers then Wallner getting sent down is actually the bigger blow to the offense. But I don't see many people arguing that point.  Because the performance right now is what matters.

No.  Their loss is not what he had done in 21 PAS.  They are not losing that production.  It's already occurred.  Their loss is what he would have done going forward.   The premise he is a -56 OPS+ hitter based on his most recent 21 PAs is absurd.  

Twins Daily Contributor
Posted
30 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Yes. Farmer was primarily viewed as a non-tender guy due to the cost. Once the Twins somewhat surprisingly tendered him a contract, the expectation was that Farmer would likely be traded due to the tight position player market.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/11/mlbtr-poll-should-the-twins-trade-kyle-farmer.html

Even Farmer himself was surprised he remained on the roster and wasn't traded before the start of the season.

This isn't the NBA.

"Sign and trade" isn't a thing.

Farmer was surprised he was offered arbitration.

Posted
1 minute ago, USAFChief said:

This isn't the NBA.

"Sign and trade" isn't a thing.

Tell that to the analysts, fans and Farmer himself. They all expected Farmer to be moved after he was tendered.

Posted
12 hours ago, RpR said:

Move to what?

As bad as Santana has been, there is nothing to move to.

 

platoon AK and Miranda maybe?

Posted

Injuries have absolutely hurt us.

Injuries are no excuse because Injuries were going to somehow someway sometime be a factor this year just like they are every year. 

It is completely fair to believe that the front office failed to prepare for a sure thing. 

 

Posted
9 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

His current injury was from fouling a ball off his knee on opening day. Instead of going in the IL immediately he returned 5 days later. They haven’t had a healthy Kepler for even one full game in 2024. 

I follow now. That's fair. Even though I'd argue he didn't look any better in Florida so I'm not sold that this is just injury related. He's looked lost since his first spring training game. 

Posted
8 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

No.  Their loss is not what he had done in 21 PAS.  They are not losing that production.  It's already occurred.  Their loss is what he would have done going forward.   The premise he is a -56 OPS+ hitter based on his most recent 21 PAs is absurd.  

The premise that a guy who's looked lost since spring training and continued to look lost in the early going was suddenly going to be a 103 OPS+ hitter the next 10 games he played in is absurd. 

As shown by the rest of the team that's looked lost since spring training and continued to look lost in the early going still looking lost now. Wallner had much better career numbers than he's shown this year and didn't just magically snap out of it after 21 PAs. There's no reason to believe the eternally struggling to figure out hitting Max Kepler would've either. The idea that Max Kepler would've still been struggling 10 games later isn't absurd. It's actually the far more likely scenario.

Posted
34 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

The premise that a guy who's looked lost since spring training and continued to look lost in the early going was suddenly going to be a 103 OPS+ hitter the next 10 games he played in is absurd. 

As shown by the rest of the team that's looked lost since spring training and continued to look lost in the early going still looking lost now. Wallner had much better career numbers than he's shown this year and didn't just magically snap out of it after 21 PAs. There's no reason to believe the eternally struggling to figure out hitting Max Kepler would've either. The idea that Max Kepler would've still been struggling 10 games later isn't absurd. It's actually the far more likely scenario.

I didn’t say he should assume he would immediately return to his career norms.  I suggested that you were ignoring a couple things when you wrote “ the Twins lost a 103 OPS+ hitter is not accurate. They lost a -56 OPS+ hitter.”   The first thing is that it makes no sense to make such a claim with a very tiny sample size.  The second is that it is ridiculous to assume a career 103 OPS+ hitter would continue to produce at a -56 level.  Therefore, they were not losing a -56 OPS+ hitter.  

BTW …. Polanco had a wRC+ of 3 through his 1st 20 PAs.  It is 136 since those 1st 20 Pas so it’s not at all absurd to suggest Kepler might return to his career norms, especially given he was hurt.
 

Posted
22 hours ago, Kenny Powers said:

If they can find even one decent starter to add to our team, they could move one of those guys back to the pen.  Suddenly our pitching would be a lot better (starting and BP)

The answer is David Festa.  His first five starts this season in AAA have been fantastic.  If Varland can't hack it as a starting pitcher he needs to move to the pen.

On the offensive side of the ball i've got no answers other than almost the entire lineup is utter trash. The sooner Royce Lewis gets healthy the better along with Brooks Lee in AAA because we are gonna need both of those guys by seasons end the way things are going.  

Posted
23 hours ago, umterp23 said:

The Santana move is probably the easiest move to rectify.  You wrote:  With the injury situation, the Twins have no choice but to write his name into the lineup every day.  I would disagree, you release him, trade him regardless perceived injury situation.  We have DH covered, we have 1st base covered, Santana offers nothing else defensively and is offensive as a hitter.  Thank him for his time.  AK, Julien, Miranda are your options and that is plenty good vs penciling in Santana.

Rotation major setback for sure.  Varland is pen material where you piggy back off of Paddock to get through a game.  SWR let him fly and see how long it lasts, may not be long but Varland hasn't shown consistency.

Farmer, like him, but tendering him at that price tag is, well we know, hampering other moves to improve this roster

Farmer is not expensive - the Team reverted back to 2021 Salary and chose to spend $25-$30M less than ‘23. It’s April - played 10% of the games. Farmer will level off in his performance at the plate.

Santana was/is washed on the left side - could see that going in to the deal. He’s a defensive insurance policy if needed and a platoon guy on the right side as well as a pinch hitter on right side. He’s in the line-up too much due to injuries AND the fact that Wallner reverted back to high school level …….with Kepler & Wallner providing Zero - Santana has been penciled in since Kirilloff is in OF regularly or at DH…..,,can’t Trade him to a Korean team……no other takers!

Julien not, nor will be, an option at 1B,

SWR isn’t a savior but certainly deserves a shot. DeSclafani was a risk - Headrick being out hurt is hindsight criticism. After two years of Varland spot starting with mixed results, no reason to think he wasn’t/isn’t ready for a shot in the rotation…….Paddack needs to step up & they need to score ……have squandered at least one exceptional start each from Lopez - Ryan - Ober……….when starter gives up 1 or zero runs the Team needs to win!!

Posted
53 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Injuries have absolutely hurt us.

Injuries are no excuse because Injuries were going to somehow someway sometime be a factor this year just like they are every year. 

It is completely fair to believe that the front office failed to prepare for a sure thing. 

 

I think it goes to show how much the offense became dependant on Royce Lewis later last season.  This team needs other options, players internally to step up and outside acquisitions that can actually produce consistently.

Julien, Wallner, Castro, Margot, Vazquez, Camargo, Farmer, Kepler (before he got hurt), and Buxton have all been brutally bad.  That's too many chairs (players) to shift around on the deck of the Titanic (Twins franchise) at this point.  Were sinking, were sinking!

Posted

So you can't find fault with ownership and payroll and Falvey.  The comment it's not Pohlads fault about allocating payroll dollars within.  That it's Falveys fault.  Well the Pohlads hired him.  I don't think they care who gets what as long as the numbers work out.  They have the great benefit of blaming the rotten season on injuries.  Well we have Detroit,Chicago White Sox twice an Angel's coming up on the schedule.  If they don't make hay then it's all over.  What will probably happen is we will beat up on the white Sox and declare everything is good.

Posted
21 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I didn’t say he should assume he would immediately return to his career norms.  I suggested that you were ignoring a couple things when you wrote “ the Twins lost a 103 OPS+ hitter is not accurate. They lost a -56 OPS+ hitter.”   The first thing is that it makes no sense to make such a claim with a very tiny sample size.  The second is that it is ridiculous to assume a career 103 OPS+ hitter would continue to produce at a -56 level.  Therefore, they were not losing a -56 OPS+ hitter.  

BTW …. Polanco had a wRC+ of 3 through his 1st 20 PAs.  It is 136 since those 1st 20 Pas so it’s not at all absurd to suggest Kepler might return to his career norms, especially given he was hurt.
 

Dang, and Polanco isn't good enough to start for this team so Kepler probably would've had a 200 wRC+ since. Max Kepler was terrible all spring. Looked like he had no idea what was coming at him in the opener and had some of the worst swings I've ever seen before he fouled that ball off his leg. Max's career norms are also to be really, really bad for long stretches. Like having the vast majority of fans calling for him to be DFA'd bad. Him struggling isn't outside of his norms.

There is no reason to believe after the spring he had, and how his career has played out, and how the rest of the team has continued to struggle, that Max getting the extra 40ish PAs that went to Austin Martin and Manuel Margot instead that this team would be performing better. That is the claim that was made. That the extra PAs to this point in the season that would've gone to Kepler had he not been hurt would've had a significant impact on this offense's performance. The poster wrongly suggested Wallner got the extra PAs, but they went to Martin and Margot for the most part. There is no reason to believe that Kepler would've performed better than Austin Martin has in 36 PAs. None at all.

Posted
32 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Farmer is not expensive - the Team reverted back to 2021 Salary and chose to spend $25-$30M less than ‘23. It’s April - played 10% of the games. Farmer will level off in his performance at the plate.

Santana was/is washed on the left side - could see that going in to the deal. He’s a defensive insurance policy if needed and a platoon guy on the right side as well as a pinch hitter on right side. He’s in the line-up too much due to injuries AND the fact that Wallner reverted back to high school level …….with Kepler & Wallner providing Zero - Santana has been penciled in since Kirilloff is in OF regularly or at DH…..,,can’t Trade him to a Korean team……no other takers!

Julien not, nor will be, an option at 1B,

SWR isn’t a savior but certainly deserves a shot. DeSclafani was a risk - Headrick being out hurt is hindsight criticism. After two years of Varland spot starting with mixed results, no reason to think he wasn’t/isn’t ready for a shot in the rotation…….Paddack needs to step up & they need to score ……have squandered at least one exceptional start each from Lopez - Ryan - Ober……….when starter gives up 1 or zero runs the Team needs to win!!

Farmer is expensive. Farmer himself said he was surprised they tendered him at that price. When the player says they're surprised to get that much money it's pretty clear they got paid too much. Especially now that we see he wasn't even the primary SS backup.

They stated in spring training that Santana was their everyday 1B to start the season. This was their plan. Injuries aren't what have driven the Santana PAs. They believed he was good enough to be their everyday 1B and said so early on. They were predictably wrong on him. It's looking like they may actually be adjusting early on which is a nice new side of them if it sticks.

Julien was an option at 1B last year so it's weird he wouldn't be this year.

The pitching has been as up and down as many expected, but definitely not the main cause of the early season record being so bad. Hard to find any pitching staff that could win with how this offense is performing.

Posted
On 4/17/2024 at 8:22 AM, Karbo said:

What's even worse than the decision to sign Santana and Margot, is the fact they probably won't move on from them as the season goes on.

Exactly! Management has a history of signing major league low end players and sticking with them all year because, you know, if we cut them we have to eat the rest of their salary and it looks like we made a mistake. Maybe time for a new front office!

Posted
16 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Farmer is expensive. Farmer himself said he was surprised they tendered him at that price. When the player says they're surprised to get that much money it's pretty clear they got paid too much. Especially now that we see he wasn't even the primary SS backup.

They stated in spring training that Santana was their everyday 1B to start the season. This was their plan. Injuries aren't what have driven the Santana PAs. They believed he was good enough to be their everyday 1B and said so early on. They were predictably wrong on him. It's looking like they may actually be adjusting early on which is a nice new side of them if it sticks.

Julien was an option at 1B last year so it's weird he wouldn't be this year.

The pitching has been as up and down as many expected, but definitely not the main cause of the early season record being so bad. Hard to find any pitching staff that could win with how this offense is performing.

How many games did Julien play - has he ever played at 1B?

The Team’s comments in the Spring was “defense” would matter in playing time. (certainly doesn’t suggest Julien’s jumping ahead of anyone at 1B with his history) The Media - TD people theorized he was playing everyday. He can’t hit from the left side - appears to be questionable from right side. His role was depth with Miranda being a big question mark. He fits perfectly as a right/left platoon with Kirilloff.

Injuries have forced him into the line-up.

Kepler (injury) - Wallner (ineptitude) - Larnach (injury) have pulled Kirilloff into the OF refularly.

Farmer is expensive on a team that cut payroll 20% ….,……how much more costly is he this year v. last year? Maybe $1.2M? Farmer isn’t hitting right now or he’d be “a great value”. April 17th.

Posted
1 hour ago, laloesch said:

The answer is David Festa.  His first five starts this season in AAA have been fantastic.  If Varland can't hack it as a starting pitcher he needs to move to the pen.

I'll believe in Festa as a starter if he can pitch into the 6th inning in AAA. Right now he goes 4 innings and that's it for the day.

Posted
1 hour ago, laloesch said:

The answer is David Festa.  His first five starts this season in AAA have been fantastic.  If Varland can't hack it as a starting pitcher he needs to move to the pen.

On the offensive side of the ball i've got no answers other than almost the entire lineup is utter trash. The sooner Royce Lewis gets healthy the better along with Brooks Lee in AAA because we are gonna need both of those guys by seasons end the way things are going.  

I sure wouldn't mind running Simeon Woods Richardson back out there either.  He looked fantastic in his last start.  It seems like a crime to send him back after doing that while other guys continue to flounder.

Posted
20 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

How many games did Julien play - has he ever played at 1B?

The Team’s comments in the Spring was “defense” would matter in playing time. (certainly doesn’t suggest Julien’s jumping ahead of anyone at 1B with his history) The Media - TD people theorized he was playing everyday. He can’t hit from the left side - appears to be questionable from right side. His role was depth with Miranda being a big question mark. He fits perfectly as a right/left platoon with Kirilloff.

Injuries have forced him into the line-up.

Kepler (injury) - Wallner (ineptitude) - Larnach (injury) have pulled Kirilloff into the OF refularly.

Farmer is expensive on a team that cut payroll 20% ….,……how much more costly is he this year v. last year? Maybe $1.2M? Farmer isn’t hitting right now or he’d be “a great value”. April 17th.

Julien played 4 games at 1B for the Minnesota Twins in 2023. So, yes, he has played 1B.

Santana played 14 of the first 15 games at 1B for the Twins. He was never a platoon there. Injuries didn't force that. That was the plan. Max Kepler and Matt Wallner were both in the lineup against righties on 4/2, 4/4, and 4/6. Carlos Santana played 1B for 2 of those games and DH'd the other. Again, against righties. Carlos Santana was brought here to be an everyday player. Larnach's injury had nothing to do with Santana's playing time because he wouldn't have been on the roster even if he wasn't hurt.

No, Farmer is expensive for a short side platoon bat who isn't your primary SS backup. He literally said he didn't expect to get tendered at that number. Gleeman and Bonnes have said on their podcast that Twins sources have said they misread that situation and overpaid him. Don't believe the sources if you don't want to, but when Farmer himself publicly states he was surprised he got tendered at that number it's pretty easy to say he's overpaid, and thus expensive. A 2B/3B short side platoon bat isn't worth 6 million. It's a bad contract.

Posted
22 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Overall MLB average is .240

 
Gleeman had a tweet that hit on what I was trying to communicate in my earlier post.  From Aaron Gleeman:
 
"Twins lineup's collective .193 batting average is the second-lowest through 17 games for any American League team in the past 50 years. The only team with a lower batting average through 17 games was the 2003 Detroit Tigers, owners of the worst record in AL history at 43-119."
Posted
3 minutes ago, Kenny Powers said:
 
Gleeman had a tweet that hit on what I was trying to communicate in my earlier post.  From Aaron Gleeman:
 
"Twins lineup's collective .193 batting average is the second-lowest through 17 games for any American League team in the past 50 years. The only team with a lower batting average through 17 games was the 2003 Detroit Tigers, owners of the worst record in AL history at 43-119."

Yes, I and I was trying to put it in context that league batting average is currently the lowest it has been since the 1968 "Year of the Pitcher". Since the American League started in 1901 the league batting average has only been lower than 2024 (so far) twice - 1968 and 1908. April has been one of the most anemic months for hitting in the history of MLB.

Posted
1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Dang, and Polanco isn't good enough to start for this team so Kepler probably would've had a 200 wRC+ since. Max Kepler was terrible all spring. Looked like he had no idea what was coming at him in the opener and had some of the worst swings I've ever seen before he fouled that ball off his leg. Max's career norms are also to be really, really bad for long stretches. Like having the vast majority of fans calling for him to be DFA'd bad. Him struggling isn't outside of his norms.

There is no reason to believe after the spring he had, and how his career has played out, and how the rest of the team has continued to struggle, that Max getting the extra 40ish PAs that went to Austin Martin and Manuel Margot instead that this team would be performing better. That is the claim that was made. That the extra PAs to this point in the season that would've gone to Kepler had he not been hurt would've had a significant impact on this offense's performance. The poster wrongly suggested Wallner got the extra PAs, but they went to Martin and Margot for the most part. There is no reason to believe that Kepler would've performed better than Austin Martin has in 36 PAs. None at all.

I was certain you would not actually address to question being debated which was if they lost a -56 OPS+ hitter when Kepler went down.  I did not comment on anything related to your disagreement with the other poster other than your suggestion Kepler was a -56 OPS+ hitter.  Let's see if you can actually address that question.  Does it make sense to conclude max Kepler would be a -56 OPS+ hitter going forward as you did in a previous post?  

Edit:  You did basically address the question so my error.  

Posted
1 hour ago, laloesch said:

I think it goes to show how much the offense became dependant on Royce Lewis later last season.  This team needs other options, players internally to step up and outside acquisitions that can actually produce consistently.

Julien, Wallner, Castro, Margot, Vazquez, Camargo, Farmer, Kepler (before he got hurt), and Buxton have all been brutally bad.  That's too many chairs (players) to shift around on the deck of the Titanic (Twins franchise) at this point.  Were sinking, were sinking!

Lewis was a superstar when in the lineup last off-season. Handful of players in all of baseball type superstar in my opinion. 

No team can become dependent on one player though and Lewis still only gave us 122 post all-star break AB's last year. Injuries keep following him around. 

The 2nd half of last year. Kepler was one of the best in baseball. Jeffers was superb and one of the top hitting catchers in all of baseball. Wallner and Julien were real good hitters against right handers. Jorge Polanco coming back from injury was a big boost. 

From that group of 2nd half saviors. Only Jeffers and Julien remain. 

Posted
5 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I was certain you would not actually address to question being debated which was if they lost a -56 OPS+ hitter when Kepler went down.  Let's see if you can actually address that question.  Does it make sense to conclude max Kepler would be a -56 OPS+ hitter going forward as you did in a previous post?  

 

13 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Master of deleting all context strikes again. 

No, Kepler won't OPS+ -56 all season. But that's the player that was hurt. Does anyone think Wallner, Santana (I actually do expect him to suck all year), Castro, and Farmer are going to continue with their terrible OPS+ numbers all year? I would make a very substantial bet that nobody is expecting that. 

 

Posted
2 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I was certain you would not actually address to question being debated which was if they lost a -56 OPS+ hitter when Kepler went down.  Let's see if you can actually address that question.  Does it make sense to conclude max Kepler would be a -56 OPS+ hitter going forward as you did in a previous post?  

For the next 10 games after he went out? Which is what I'm talking about. And have said repeatedly since I was contradicting the other poster's stance that the PAs that went to Wallner, Santana, Castro and Farmer would've been better had Kepler been healthy.

So, yes, to answer your question again, it does make sense. Or does it not make sense that Wallner continued to suck? And Vazquez. And Farmer. And Julien, And Castro. And Santana. And Margot. The same small sample size situation still applies. I never, not once, said he would maintain a -56 OPS+ for the season. I said the other poster's suggestion that in the 40 PAs Kepler has missed since he got hurt it absolutely makes sense that he would have continued to suck. Like the majority of the rest of the lineup has.

Posted
27 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Julien played 4 games at 1B for the Minnesota Twins in 2023. So, yes, he has played 1B.

Santana played 14 of the first 15 games at 1B for the Twins. He was never a platoon there. Injuries didn't force that. That was the plan. Max Kepler and Matt Wallner were both in the lineup against righties on 4/2, 4/4, and 4/6. Carlos Santana played 1B for 2 of those games and DH'd the other. Again, against righties. Carlos Santana was brought here to be an everyday player. Larnach's injury had nothing to do with Santana's playing time because he wouldn't have been on the roster even if he wasn't hurt.

No, Farmer is expensive for a short side platoon bat who isn't your primary SS backup. He literally said he didn't expect to get tendered at that number. Gleeman and Bonnes have said on their podcast that Twins sources have said they misread that situation and overpaid him. Don't believe the sources if you don't want to, but when Farmer himself publicly states he was surprised he got tendered at that number it's pretty easy to say he's overpaid, and thus expensive. A 2B/3B short side platoon bat isn't worth 6 million. It's a bad contract.

Just because Farmer didn’t expect the “organization would pay him” with their salary contraction doesn’t mean he’s expensive. $6.5 million is not expensive when you have roughly 15 guys making the minimum. He’s the depth at 3B - SS - 2B, not just a short side of a platoon. With a fully healthy roster Farmer starts 80 games minimum.

What if they signed him for a frugal $1.5 million reduction to ‘23’s salary for $3.75 million - is that more tolerable? He isn’t hitting  - that’s the sole problem.

Whether he’s playing 3B - 2B - SS seems immaterial to me. If Lewis were playing, IMO, Farmer would play SS in Correa’s absence. Castro would be in the OF as was the plan coming into the season. That frees up, on current roster, Kirilloff to play 1B whenever Rocco sees fit.

I guess, if they think Santana’s a good option from the left side as “the every day guy” he would have started v. a right handed pitcher yesterday instead of right handed hitting Miranda……good bet anyway.

Posted
9 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

For the next 10 games after he went out? Which is what I'm talking about. And have said repeatedly since I was contradicting the other poster's stance that the PAs that went to Wallner, Santana, Castro and Farmer would've been better had Kepler been healthy.

So, yes, to answer your question again, it does make sense. Or does it not make sense that Wallner continued to suck? And Vazquez. And Farmer. And Julien, And Castro. And Santana. And Margot. The same small sample size situation still applies. I never, not once, said he would maintain a -56 OPS+ for the season. I said the other poster's suggestion that in the 40 PAs Kepler has missed since he got hurt it absolutely makes sense that he would have continued to suck. Like the majority of the rest of the lineup has.

I don't really have any idea what to expect from Kepler.  My objection was extremely specific.  You said they lost a -56 OPS+ hitter and that's a ridiculous statement.  The odds of him being that bad in in his next 40 or 60 or 80 or whatever PAs is extremely low if he is no long injured.   That's it.  End of story.  I didn't have any disagreement with anything else you said which is why I did not comment on any other part of what you had to say.  Lot of stinking it up right now.  What's to disagree with there?

Posted
3 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I don't really have any idea what to expect from Kepler.  My objection was extremely specific.  You said they lost a -56 OPS+ hitter and that's a ridiculous statement.  The odds of him being that bad in in his next 40 or 60 or 80 or whatever PAs is extremely low if he is no long injured.   That's it.  End of story.  I didn't have any disagreement with anything else you said which is why I did not comment on any other part of what you had to say.  Lot of stinking it up right now.  What's to disagree with there?

The point of bringing up the other guys stinking is that none of them are hitting to their career norms. Your entire stance is that it doesn't make sense (I believe you even said it was absurd) to suggest Kepler would continue to struggle when his career norm is a 103 OPS+. If that's true, and I'm being absurd, then it'd also be true that none of the other guys who are still struggling well below their career norms would be struggling still. 

Nearly the entire Twins lineup is proving that it is absolutely not absurd to suggest Kepler would still be struggling. Because they're all still struggling! What are the odds of 8 guys hitting below the Mendoza line right now? Extremely low if they're not injured? Because that's what's happening. End of story. Kepler was awful all spring. He was awful to start the year. Most of the lineup was awful all spring. They were awful to start the year. And they're still awful now. It's pretty reasonable to say Kepler would've continued to be awful too, just like the majority of the team has continued to be awful.

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