How Long does Emmanuel Rodriguez stay in AA if he continues to dominate.

[Tjwalsh65]

With a red hot start at double A when would the Twins move Emmanuel Rodriguez up to AAA if that hot streak continues.

[bean5302]

Probably at least through June. 

[chpettit19]

I'd say through May if he doesn't slow down. If he goes through a cold spell then a month after he gets back to crushing.

[Riverbrian]

If he is the talent others say he is and if he continues to hit AA pitching to the tune he is currently singing. 

The Twins have a couple of things brewing where he may be a discussion sooner rather than later. 

1. If Wallner can't snap out of this... he will have to be sent down. I wouldn't send him down yet... way too soon but... if he can't pull out of this striking out 50% of the time thing he is currently doing. Something will have to be done for his sake and ours. 

2. This is a critical year for Larnach. It's his last option year. He either demonstrates major league ability this year or he is gone. Trevor needs first crack at it. We don't want to throw away Larnach in order to have Rodriquez jump two levels. This is our last year to see if Trevor is worthy. Going into 2025... Larnach has to be rostered or placed on waivers where the A's will claim him. 

Get healthy quick Trevor... Get healthy quick. 

Keep pushing Emmanuel... Keep pushing. 

Figure it out Wallner... Figure it out.  

[jmlease1]

I think they'll look at it around midseason. He's still very young, and right now this is all small samples. If he's still rolling at midseason, then I could see them bumping him up to Saint Paul.

It's certainly the problem I want to have and the conversation that makes me smile.

[danielp19653]

I would agree with everyone else, the Twins don't like to rapidly promote players so assuming he stays hot or at least above average I would guess somewhere in the June to July window. I would imagine the thinking is let AA pitchers adjust to him on the hot streak and see if they find a hole he can work on there, and if not move him along. I agree though the MLB roster could certainly use anyone on any sort of hot streak stepping into the box, especially from the outfielders.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

5 minutes ago, danielp19653 said:

I would agree with everyone else, the Twins don't like to rapidly promote players so assuming he stays hot or at least above average I would guess somewhere in the June to July window. I would imagine the thinking is let AA pitchers adjust to him on the hot streak and see if they find a hole he can work on there, and if not move him along. I agree though the MLB roster could certainly use anyone on any sort of hot streak stepping into the box, especially from the outfielders.

I'd agree with this. I think the next couple of weeks loom large. There's a book on Rodriguez now, or at least there will be one soon and pitchers will have a scouting report. Adjustments will be made and he'll have to counter. How well he does that (or not) will determine how soon he's called up. With that said though, I'm not sure he could be much worse than the Twins' current collection of outfielders - including #25.

[Patzky]

2 hours ago, Tjwalsh65 said:

With a red heart start at double A when would the Twins move Emmanuel Rodriguez up to AAA if that hot streak continues.

Consider the options.. Larnach is O-fer in the rehab.. I think he'd bring excitement at the very least!

[nicksaviking]

Considering how delicate this team has been with preserving their non-roster relievers they hoarded this offseason (see trading for Michael Tonkin instead of calling up one of these journeymen vets), I suspect his 'readiness' will be secondary to roster preservation. There's only three healthy hitters on the 40-man who aren't at the MLB level. Larnach is gearing up in A ball, so he might be ahead of Rodriguez, but Severino has been terrible so he probably isn't. But if they need someone before Kepler and Lewis are ready, I'd bet Rodriguez is second in line.

[DJL44]

How long do they keep him in CF?

[chpettit19]

8 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Considering how delicate this team has been with preserving their non-roster relievers they hoarded this offseason (see trading for Michael Tonkin instead of calling up one of these journeymen vets), I suspect his 'readiness' will be secondary to roster preservation. There's only three healthy hitters on the 40-man who aren't at the MLB level. Larnach is gearing up in A ball, so he might be ahead of Rodriguez, but Severino has been terrible so he probably isn't. But if they need someone before Kepler and Lewis are ready, I'd bet Rodriguez is second in line.

I really hope this isn't right. Not saying it isn't, just hoping it isn't. If he's as important to their future as it appears people think he is they need to sacrifice some reliever depth to call up a Kiersey or Helman or Prato type if Emma isn't ready. Don't mess with his development because you don't want to DFA Matt Bowman or Daniel Duarte. Shoot, DFA Severino or Larnach if they're not an answer before you mess with Emma's development. His 'readiness' needs to be factor 1, 2, 3, and 4 if he's someone you're expecting to be a franchise cornerstone. 

I fear you may be correct, but I really hope you aren't. Or that he just proves to be ready when needed and none of this is even a concern. That'd be ideal.

[2wins87]

We're talking about 2 weeks right now.  He's only faced 2 of the the 9 other teams in the league.  I'm very excited about the start and expect him to continue to be good, but maybe let him face most of the rest of the league before talking about promotions.

If things get really desperate from an injury perspective for the major league team I could see him jumping AAA a little later in the season, but if the idea is just to get him to AAA, my question is why?

The pitchers in AAA don't generally have any nastier stuff.  They do generally have a little better command, but with the auto-zone, AAA has become a hitters paradise.  And I imagine it would be particularly easy for a super patient guy like Rodriguez to get in the habit of just waiting the pitchers out.  If the umps in AA help the pitchers out from time to time in hitters counts I think that will ultimately be fine for his development.

I am personally more excited to see him continue to mash against the best pitchers in AA for a while than I am eager to see him move up the ladder just yet.

 

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I'd say through May if he doesn't slow down. If he goes through a cold spell then a month after he gets back to crushing.

Agreed. At least 6 weeks.....but I mean, I'd just move him to the big club at that point if he's dominating and Wallner and Larnarch are bad and kepler is hurt/Kepler. 

[nicksaviking]

22 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I really hope this isn't right. Not saying it isn't, just hoping it isn't. If he's as important to their future as it appears people think he is they need to sacrifice some reliever depth to call up a Kiersey or Helman or Prato type if Emma isn't ready. Don't mess with his development because you don't want to DFA Matt Bowman or Daniel Duarte. Shoot, DFA Severino or Larnach if they're not an answer before you mess with Emma's development. His 'readiness' needs to be factor 1, 2, 3, and 4 if he's someone you're expecting to be a franchise cornerstone. 

I fear you may be correct, but I really hope you aren't. Or that he just proves to be ready when needed and none of this is even a concern. That'd be ideal.

I agree, however I'm also of the mind that if a guy gets called up early and struggles and it messes with him so bad that it tanks his career, then he's probably not a guy who will be able to come through under pressure anyway. I'd think early failure would push not deject the kinds of players this team needs to win post season games.

But even if he's a good role player and nothing more, I'd not want to call him up if it takes that possibility off the table later. But honestly, I think most organizations can grasp the mental makeup of these young players at this point better than they can predict their counting stats. I think they'd have a fairly good idea from his personality what they're working with and how he'd handle a call up.

[chpettit19]

7 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Agreed. At least 6 weeks.....but I mean, I'd just move him to the big club at that point if he's dominating and Wallner and Larnarch are bad and kepler is hurt/Kepler. 

If it's mid-May and he hasn't slowed down and they are still struggling with corner outfield offense he should absolutely get the call. Michael Harris debuted for the Braves on May 28th in 2022 with a jump straight from AA where he'd just debuted at the start of that season at age 21. He played 43 AA games before debuting and ripping off a .297/.339/.515/.853 slash line in 114 MLB games in 2022. I'd sign up for that route from Emma in his age 21 season in a heartbeat.

[TwinsDr2021]

He just turned 21, doesn't he need at least 2-4 more years in the minors to prove he is ready and his first name isn't Jackson? /s

agree with most if he is still hot a month from now and the outfield fielders are still struggling and if the team hasn't fallen too far out of first. I would bring him up. IMO this front office would like to keep players in the minors for as long as possible (unless forced) just to keep their clock from starting, guys that come up at this age and succeed get paid.

[chpettit19]

23 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

He just turned 21, doesn't he need at least 2-4 more years in the minors to prove he is ready and his first name isn't Jackson? /s

agree with most if he is still hot a month from now and the outfield fielders are still struggling and if the team hasn't fallen too far out of first. I would bring him up. IMO this front office would like to keep players in the minors for as long as possible (unless forced) just to keep their clock from starting, guys that come up at this age and succeed get paid.

Have they really had anyone under this regime who was worthy of being called up at 21? I think the bigger reason they keep guys in the minors these days is their misguided effort to sustain depth at the cost of taking a shot at more talented players.

[Trov]

It will in part depend on the health of players in AAA and MLB.  If E-Rod spends all of April tearing up and looking like he has it figured out, and there are still corner outfield injuries, I would expect him to move up sooner than later.  Else, I would see him stay until June to July.  He could make a jump from AA to majors if they need him to.  Personally, I think if he continues to hit like he has, still very SSS, and Wallner continues to struggle there may be a call up to majors for E-Rod.  They have other outfielders that could swap in for Wallner as well so health of them and how they perform will play a roll too. 

[TwinsDr2021]

16 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Have they really had anyone under this regime who was worthy of being called up at 21? I think the bigger reason they keep guys in the minors these days is their misguided effort to sustain depth at the cost of taking a shot at more talented players.

No not at 21 (except Gaterol was called up, and quickly traded and SWR was up early as well, mostly forced but still) I was talking more along the lines of Miranda, Julien, Wallner, Severiono even to a lesser extent Festa this year being called up at a time most teams would have been calling them up they because they were hot and could be used. I not saying they wouldn't call up guys if forced or players forcing them, I am saying I think they like to. It is a great way to control costs, never really having to pay prime price for players.

Would other teams been a bit more aggressive promoting EROD, Rosario, Raya, Schobel, Lewis last year out of high A? I don't know, but by not doing it might mean there is way less of a chance of them making it this year? I am not saying this as a complaint or saying they should have.

[Doctor Gast]

4 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

If he is the talent others say he is and if he continues to hit AA pitching to the tune he is currently singing. 

The Twins have a couple of things brewing where he may be a discussion sooner rather than later. 

1. If Wallner can't snap out of this... he will have to be sent down. I wouldn't send him down yet... way too soon but... if he can't pull out of this striking out 50% of the time thing he is currently doing. Something will have to be done for his sake and ours. 

2. This is a critical year for Larnach. It's his last option year. He either demonstrates major league ability this year or he is gone. Trevor needs first crack at it. We don't want to throw away Larnach in order to have Rodriquez jump two levels. This is our last year to see if Trevor is worthy. Going into 2025... Larnach has to be rostered or placed on waivers where the A's will claim him. 

Get healthy quick Trevor... Get healthy quick. 

Keep pushing Emmanuel... Keep pushing

Figure it out Wallner... Figure it out.  

Well said RiverBrian. Even when Emma is raking, Wind Surge still has difficulty winning.

[ashbury]

All the responses here are interesting, but I believe a promotion this early would be for one reason: the talent evaluators on the Wichita staff, and perhaps roving staff as well, have watched and declared that he has nothing left to learn at AA.  Stats are almost incidental to this.  Other players such as Larnach likewise.

We fans can only guess from the stats, and small sample only begins to explain the problem with that.  The evaluators will factor in the quality of the pitching he has seen on a day to day basis, the quality of his swings and the quality of his non-swings (10 walks already tells us something but not enough), and so on.  It doesn't really matter that he's faced only two opposing teams, if (and only if) the pitchers he's faced have fed him quality offerings and he's connected against that. 

If he's fattened up on get-me-over pitches, or against pitchers whose stuff just isn't good enough in the first place, let him continue to develop where he is.  If the evaluators think they have a Juan Soto situation on their hands, they could move him up to AAA tomorrow.

[D.C Twins]

Great thread....and enjoyable/informative read... well done everyone!

[nicksaviking]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Have they really had anyone under this regime who was worthy of being called up at 21? I think the bigger reason they keep guys in the minors these days is their misguided effort to sustain depth at the cost of taking a shot at more talented players.

Or delay the future costs of these players by signing less talented depth. I'm sure they'd rather pay them cheaply through their prime instead of letting them walk when their still only 28.

But Lewis and Kirilloff were in AA by the time they were 21. Both had season long injuries and that Covid year makes things impossible to gauge. Lee looks like he'll be amongst the first prospects from his class called up. Seems like the TOP top prospects aren't typically held up long. 

[nicksaviking]

20 minutes ago, ashbury said:

All the responses here are interesting, but I believe a promotion this early would be for one reason: the talent evaluators on the Wichita staff, and perhaps roving staff as well, have watched and declared that he has nothing left to learn at AA.  Stats are almost incidental to this.

We fans can only guess from the stats, and small sample only begins to explain the problem with that.  The evaluators will factor in the quality of the pitching he has seen on a day to day basis, the quality of his swings and the quality of his non-swings (10 walks already tells us something but not enough), and so on.  It doesn't really matter that he's faced only two opposing teams, if (and only if) the pitchers he's faced have fed him quality offerings and he's connected against that. 

If he's fattened up on get-me-over pitches, or against pitchers whose stuff just isn't good enough in the first place, let him continue to develop where he is.

Yeah, I'm not sure what's happening here, but in the four years the Twins have had an affiliate in Wichita, that stop seems to be the one where the brakes are applied. So whatever this is, is pretty dang encouraging.